Pundits are saying the following :
Cramer predicting drop of 2,000 on Mortgage insurers default.....
Pete Najarian saying......markets will drop "HUGE"..because Put Options on OEX/SPY expired on friday...so NO protection exists to support the market......
Technician on CNBC said on friday that 75 year BULL market has ended as we have broken the "TREND LINE already"......he sees an 800 point rally...then racing to NEW LOWS.........
With all these well known pundits "so sure about the DOWN direction of markets"......
What is there to Analyze further.......Right !!!
So sell everything & watch the market COLLAPSE in front of your eyes......& actually smile @ the drop ..because you are SO SMART "you got ZERO exposure to markets".......
I got NEWS for you........
Are you Ready.....
Everybody in the world is ALWAYS exposed to the markets through IRA,ROTH,401K,Mutual Funds & if you live in Canada....our Pension Fund by government has HUGE stake in markets....
Now.....all of a sudden even in CASH...you are exposed to the world markets...as all funds invest worldwide.......
So how about ...RELAXING for a change.....& think this through like a GENIUS....
Not like PUNDITS.....who are FEAR MONGERS to BOOST ratings........so they get PAID more based on Neilson's numbers.......
So.....where I think we are heading in the markets???
I do NOT think it matters in the short term.......
Where I think where markets will be end of 2008.......NOW that matters......
By end of 2008.......
Economy will be showing growth & stock markets will track the economy......
We all have to DETOXIFY from numbers game.......
Try to get the CONCEPT/DIRECTION right...for 2009 !!!!
So...If you know that we will be OK by end of the year....& god forbid US economy will actually show GROWTH.......
What would you like to DO...... based on your INDIVIDUAL circumstances....
Whatever it is.....that you HAVE to DO...you should DO IT NOW !!!!
My friends.....this IS ....Stock Market......game of Sharks......
CAUTION is ALWAYS PRUDENT !!!!!
Make the decision & move ON......
Focus on LIFE.....which is a GAME of LOVE,AFFECTION & HAPPINESS !!!!
Saleem
Saleem,
ReplyDeletein your previous post I asked a question and your next blog (this one) gave your answer. I see wisdom in your take and Yes, TV has been freaking my inexperienced investor mind out. Thank you for sharing your insight to 40 years of seeing this crap. I am going to keep my eye on q3-q4 rather than moment by moment fear mongering to bolster GS short positions... Thanks again for solid points made. It sure is difficult to see the forest through the trees sometimes.
SALEEM
ReplyDeleteGood morning my freind.
I appreciate all the work you do to present the facts on your blog. I have to reread it several times to make sure I get it-thanks.
I like having the BNN.CA there approach to news is so refreshing! Not like CNBC FAST screaming and bellowing the news so that you know nothing!
J Cramer was now very positive last night, as many of our fellow bloggers. Usually when every one aggres that the market is done for the bottom is in.
I hope so as I would like to start making $$$$ again.
How are you and the family. WHat do you think of buying GS here. THey have been pounded down over $60 bucks a share and it's earing are great, IMHO.
thanks for your comment in advance
Madmax
Hi Doug,
ReplyDeleteLife is NEVER short term FOCUS.
Only daily needs of life existence is short term.
Rest CAN & SHOULD be planned knowing all the pitfalls.
Wall Street is SAME...goes UP & goes DOWN based on GS agenda....KNOW it & position to do the opposite.
I am glad it gave you some perspective.....
I TRY very hard to maintain SANITY for many....
Hope it is WORKING.....
Saleem
Hi Madmax,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your appreciating my take on a very difficult world of stock markets.....
www.bnn.ca is a FREE gift & you can watch whole week under past/old videos....
watch 11.30AM every monday Berman's call...he is the-best technician who actually KNOWS what he is talking about.
Yes GS is a strong buy.
Saleem
Saleem,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the take on recent events. Business is great for me. Phone is ringing everyday. This slide in the market has taken a huge toll on my resources short term. Sickening really. IBD brought up an interesting fact that I forgot long ago. During the 2000-2002 slide the analysts were saying buy on dips, I did and lost bigtime. Now they are doing it again. and the sellers are selling into all rallys. I'll wait to see if the rate cut has any effect at all before adding more exposure.
Peace.
Standards
Hi Standards,
ReplyDeleteExperience tells us to reduce exposure when markets are in freefall.
Till aug ....I do not see any reason to add.
Markets have taken a toll on everyone......
Comfort level has to be the-focus.
It will be more of a stock picker market more so...just to go through till aug....
Saleem
Saleem,
ReplyDeleteAt this point, I have limited my exposure to two stocks-AAPL and LDK, which I am confident will be in a very good/profitable place by Q4 of this year.
I will continue to closely monitor the government's economic policy initiatives and if and when opportunities arise I act accordingly.
Hi Bruce,
ReplyDeleteThecurrent market conditions are very difficult...thanks to fed/govt lack of seriousness to deal effectively with all issues.
I had lot more faith in Fed & Us Govt...than what they have delivered so far.....
They are still talking NOT announcing the real-deal....
How come Fed & US legislators cannot have an urgent seession & get it over with....
I have been out of all HIGH PE stocks as part of my 6th sense strategy...
Except for BIDU I got out just in-time.....
I will maintain all my current positions.....based on my take of sector & where they are trading currently.
Markets are deep deep oversold...so expect a half decent rally...then correction all over...though NOT as severe....
In this downdraft we will see the LOW......then build from there....
Higher low & hopefully better peak each time till august....
I will be back in techs around Aug.....
So that is the plan.....
Unless Fed/Treasury acts like chicken AGAIN.....
If that......
Back to the drawing board !!!!
Saleem
Saleem,
ReplyDeleteYes, you are right about life in general. Just got a report from a missionary in Kenya, tens of thousands of refugees entering camps without food or medicines to care for them. We lived blessed lives when we compare them to others.
Standards.
Hi Standards,
ReplyDeleteIf we count our blessings daily....then we will realize...that there is no sense in going crazy for more..more as a focus.
In Canada ....I feel so fortunate ..to have health care taken care of ....without a penny spent.....to me that is heaven on earth!!!!
Yes...sufferings of millions are ignored...but there is always TRILLIONS to wage the next war....
Saleem
SALEEM:
ReplyDeleteHere is the IBD 100 rakings list:
1 INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC
2 CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL A
3 F C STONE GROUP INC
4 VIMPEL COMMUNICATIONS
5 CHINA MEDICAL TECH ADS
6 C F INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS
7 H M S HOLDINGS CORP
8 COMPANHIA SIDERURGIC ADS
9 TELEFONICA S A ADR
10 ATWOOD OCEANICS INC
11 LIFECELL CORP
12 TELE NORTE LESTE PAR ADS
13 H D F C BANK LTD ADR
14 TURKCELL ILET HIZME ADR
15 T THREE ENERGY SERVICES
16 CREDICORP LTD
17 DOLBY LABORATORIES INC
18 RANGE RESOURCES CORP
19 MOBILE TELESYSTEMS ADR
20 MOSAIC COMPANY
21 YAMANA GOLD INC
22 DAWSON GEOPHYSICAL CO
23 C N H GLOBAL NV
24 MINDRAY MEDICAL INTL ADS
25 MASTERCARD INC CL A
26 IRIS INTERNATIONAL INC
27 BLACKROCK INC
28 SONOSITE INC
29 EXPRESS SCRIPTS INC
30 HARBIN ELECTRIC INC
31 QUICKSILVER RESOURCES
32 L K Q CORP
33 ENERSYS
34 HUMANA INC
35 MERIDIAN BIOSCIENCE INC
36 TEAM INC
37 ARENA RESOURCES INC
38 CAPELLA EDUCATION CO
39 ABAXIS INC
40 CORE LABORATORIES NV
41 HOLOGIC INC
42 NATURAL GAS SERVICES GRP
43 AMERICAN PUBLIC EDUC INC
44 GAMESTOP CORP CL A
45 CTRIP.COM INTL LTD ADR
46 NATUS MEDICAL INC
47 GILEAD SCIENCES INC
48 SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY CO
49 AGRIUM INC
50 STERLITE INDS INDIA ADS
51 CAMERON INTL CORP
52 COCA COLA HBC SA ADR
53 ROSTELECOM LONG DIST ADS
54 AMAZON.COM INC
55 OPEN TEXT CORP
56 SUPERIOR ENERGY SVCS
57 GREEN MTN COFFEE ROASTRS
58 DEERE & CO
59 OMNICELL INC
60 CENTRAL EUROPEAN DIST CP
61 CHINA MOBILE LTD ADR
62 FLIR SYSTEMS INC
63 AMEDISYS INC
64 BLUEPHOENIX SOLUTIONS
65 PHASE FORWARD INC
66 TRANSDIGM GROUP INC
67 ANSYS INC
68 OPTIONSXPRESS HLDGS INC
69 CHATTEM INC
70 ENERGEN CORP
71 AIR METHODS CORP
72 STRAYER EDUCATION INC
73 STANLEY INC
74 INVITROGEN CORP
75 ICON PLC ADS
76 COVANCE INC
77 DENBURY RESOURCES INC
78 MECHEL OAO ADS
79 MONSANTO CO
80 STERICYCLE INC
81 KOPPERS HOLDINGS INC
82 FOCUS MEDIA HOLDING ADS
83 W M S INDUSTRIES INC
84 SADIA SA ADR
85 PETROHAWK ENERGY CORP
86 NATCO GROUP INC CL A
87 VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC
88 GENZYME CORP
89 BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL A
90 FUSHI COPPERWELD INC
91 KENDLE INTERNATIONAL INC
92 APOLLO GROUP INC CL A
93 CELLCOM ISRAEL LTD
94 AXSYS TECHNOLOGIES INC
95 CONTINENTAL RES INC
96 AMERIGON INC
97 INTEGRAL SYSTEMS INC
98 MAX CAPITAL GROUP LTD
99 OIL DRI CORP AMERICA
100 PERDIGAO SA ADR
Madmax
Hi Madmax,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your effort to post IBD 100...great list to do FA & TA.
Saleem
Hi Saleem. The good thing about corrections or bear markets is keeping your eye out for NEW leaders. They will emerge when this downtrend ends. They will double, triple and even quadruple. Very infrequently old leaders (i.e. goog, crox, ua, isrg) do the same. The key is to keep your eyes open for these new leaders, most of which we probably have not heard of yet. If we catch a new leader, it will make up for our losses and far more. Peace.
ReplyDeleteHi Minaccess,
ReplyDeleteYes I agree with you......
I am always looking out for new high growth area......
However...some trends last for about 3 years in high growth sectors.....
I am of belief that Solar IS the hottest area for 3 years...we were in year one when "shit hit the fan"..so we are back to 0 year of growth.....
Except for FSLR & SPWR....others are trading near LOW of the year...
I have placed a heavy bet on solar stocks...
& IF iam right.....2008 will be no different than 2007.....I hope ..I hope....
Same goes for AG...they are in year 2 now......so we have another 2 years of hyper growth.....
You CAN always tell where EPS growth going to be...by doing FA...
Solar & AG EPS are...growing faster than weed in the lawn....
I have NEVER been out of techs....guess what I have 0 exposure....
Tech will be OK in aug...their strong Q3 & Q4.....
Talking of LOSS....this is the fastest loss...I have encountered DOWN 19.7% in 3 weeks.....this after factoring that my canadian $ short gave me 4.4% in same 3 weeks...
Good luck with your strategy & your own homework.
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
ReplyDeleteYou appear to be the only person that holds the same view that I have had the moment.
I appreciate your experience and take on what is happening.
I am grateful I held CMED longterm now. I wish to add more LDK and will when CMED hits 56 take profit.
I saw and interesting article that the Euro Market is expanding their goal of increasing solar to 15%. This should be announced next week. This should give you a nice increase with the solar. I just wish I had more cash at the moment.
Diane
Hi Diane,
ReplyDeleteThanks for appreciating my take on market related thoughts.....
Yes Solar..I have identified to be the-growth area.
CMED is a very good stock now based on 3/09 EPS....
Selling @ $56 is wise based on other things which is on fire sale..
It is the relative positioning which has helped me all along....
KNOWING how far a stock CAN go in short term is a science....
Nice to see your note in BLOG....
In tough time sharing HELPS !!!
Saleem