Sunday, October 23, 2011

S&P 500 UP 15.21% in this run so far, what next ?

S&P 500 has been running UP on optimism about European resolution of debts & good earnings reports.

So far we are UP 15.21% in last 13 trading days.

S&P 500 closed @ 1238.25.

RSI @ 60.14

The question is how far we can go, with more good news coming from Europe.

Europe has just about sorted out how to resolve all debt related issues as listed below :

-Europe is expected to shore UP banks capital requirement by 2012.Much earlier than previous expectations of 2014.

-Greek bonds are expected to devalue by 60%...

The above two major resolutions to be passed on Wednesday, should trigger a further rally in markets.

The way i see it, we could easily go towards 1274.70 area which is 200 DMA....

Then i expect pullback & consolidation above 1225....1225 used to be resistance, now it could be support......

Bottom line is, that we may have another 36.45 points or 2.94% before we head south.

You can daytrade or you can book profit or you can sit tight for about a month & get in after testing of support.

I happen to be in the last camp.

Market is extremely unpredictable these days, focus should be on locking gains & NOT get EUPHORIC near TOP......

Good luck with your OWN analysis.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem
at

28 comments:

  1. stocktrader_1996October 23, 2011 at 11:32 AM

    Hey Saleem,

    Great analysis!

    I agree I think we melt up here for a while, but some kind of retest is almost certain. The year-end chase is the only thing that I don't quite know how to factor in yet, and leads me to be at max weighting in stocks for now.

    The best thing about crisis-abatement is that the good stocks can go back to executing and outperforming. ** I'd much rather be a stock picker than a market guesser. **

    Stocktrader

    ReplyDelete
  2. Stocks100October 23, 2011 at 11:39 AM

    Hi Stocktrader,

    You do have a clear vision of what you want to do. As long as the end result matches your strategy then you are ahead.

    Good luck !!!!

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  3. cOctober 23, 2011 at 1:03 PM

    SALEEM

    spot on in your analysis

    Love it

    I sold a bunch of stock Friday

    I am wondering is Monday is a lift off day or red day

    I may wait a week before i do some more buying=it seems to me that we mover up way fast.

    A Santa Raley would be nice!!

    is LULU and AUY in trouble here. Can I still hold them??

    have a good evening to all

    ReplyDelete
  4. Stocks100October 23, 2011 at 1:28 PM

    Hi C,

    LULU TAPE was NOT strong as expected by me in a strong market..thus i sold it...yes i took a loss..small loss is better than stock tanking with or without market...

    LULU TAPE is NOT healthy..if you check its price @ close...while market closed UP UP UP....

    AUY is holding way better than GG....but it does NOT mean anything unless all gold stocks move UP....

    RED GREEN....does not matter IF you have locked most of your profit.

    It is all about making money not market bias......

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  5. stocktrader_1996October 24, 2011 at 6:01 AM

    Hey Saleem,

    I know you might be looking for some select companies to purchase in the near future. I'm looking at ERTS for a potential investment this week into earnings and beyond. Maybe you could take a look and give your input?

    Thanks in advance! :)

    Stocktrader

    ReplyDelete
  6. cOctober 24, 2011 at 6:34 AM

    SALEEM

    ANy buys today

    Nice green day
    Hoping to sell LULU and look for a bargain

    Best so all

    ReplyDelete
  7. cOctober 24, 2011 at 6:56 AM

    SALEEM

    WOW
    APPLE is on FIRE
    today!!!!!!!!!

    Sold LULU
    AUY is still way i the red for me

    Looking to buy MO or EPD

    best to all
    C

    ReplyDelete
  8. Stocks100October 24, 2011 at 7:02 AM

    Hi C,

    hold off any purchase until Friday @ the earliest...

    Think fo selling on rallies & buying on weakness.

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  9. cOctober 24, 2011 at 7:08 AM

    SALEEM

    Any know reason for APPLE to be rocking

    up $6.28

    YeeWho

    I am at even in my CALL which is $355 Nov 22.

    The only news I got it the APPLE TV is coming out again next year which is expected to add 3% to bottom line!

    Hmmmmmm
    thanks to all for your help and suggestions.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Stocks100October 24, 2011 at 7:24 AM

    Hi C,

    AAPL is coming up with iPhone5 in summer....thus UP $9

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  11. UpOctober 24, 2011 at 7:24 AM

    Hi C

    Stock market is control by big fish, whatever direction they feel like, we the small fish, either go along or get crush.

    ReplyDelete
  12. cOctober 24, 2011 at 7:41 AM

    UP

    thanks for your past comment and support

    You and Saleem are great sharing people

    I am still in the learning mode
    so I ask lots of questions, I read a lot too! So if I seem dense forgive me.....

    thanks to all

    ReplyDelete
  13. UpOctober 24, 2011 at 8:01 AM

    Hi C,

    Last week was Apple's earning report, people all know they will beat hard, but MM know that stock is very overbought going into earning so the best way to make money is crush it and buy it back at low level. Plus they needed to kill all calls on monthly options before take it back up again, so enjoy the ride. They only concern I have is the market is overbought and it needed a breather. This might proved to stall Apple's advancement.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Stocks100October 24, 2011 at 9:15 AM

    Hi Stocktrader,

    ERTS looks good,EPS is growing 212% ending 3/12 & 51% ending 3/13.

    RSI is 61.88..ready to make new 52 wk high.....

    Looks very good $$$$$$

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  15. stocktrader_1996October 24, 2011 at 9:20 AM

    Hey Saleem,

    Thanks for the analysis. I swapped out of VMW and into ERTS this morning. I wasn't sure how the ORCL cloud move would affect VMW, so it was the high-PE vulnerable man out for the sell to raise funds. I suspect we may hear more about ERTS's online gaming strategy on Thursday, and ZNGA's IPO talk might raise up valuations of competitors too? Just some of my thoughts...

    Stocktrader

    ReplyDelete
  16. Stocks100October 24, 2011 at 9:22 AM

    Hi Stocktrader,

    Your stock picking is excellent.

    Sold TLM into strength.....

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  17. stocktrader_1996October 24, 2011 at 9:28 AM

    Hey Saleem,

    Thanks for the huge compliment!

    ERTS and NUAN were the two I researched this weekend for potential future investment. I wasn't convinced on NUAN, especially at this level, but ERTS looked good--I just wish I would have been able swap last night! :)

    Stocktrader

    ReplyDelete
  18. Stocks100October 24, 2011 at 9:34 AM

    Hi Stocktrader,

    NUAN is extremely frothy..good idea to go for ERTS....

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  19. cOctober 24, 2011 at 10:15 AM

    Saleem
    and All

    I closed the call on APPLE. Sold to close the call at $51
    net profit was only $523

    Decided that the market is way high and did not want to lose the premium again!!!

    CNBC says that CAT beet drove the market higher! Hmmm.
    Good luck to all
    40% cash

    ReplyDelete
  20. Stocks100October 24, 2011 at 10:20 AM

    Hi C,

    Booking profit is a wise move anytime.

    I have shorted 3 stocks.....

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  21. cOctober 24, 2011 at 10:22 AM

    SALEEM

    Did you buy puts??

    How does one short an individual stock?

    I have used the QID...

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
  22. Stocks100October 24, 2011 at 10:29 AM

    Hi C,

    I shorted 3 individual stocks..one is going in my direction ..other 2 against me.

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  23. Stocks100October 24, 2011 at 10:32 AM

    Hi C,

    You need to open Short trading account with your broker..it is done in no time...

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  24. stocktrader_1996October 24, 2011 at 10:33 AM

    Hey c,

    If you are in a retirement vehicle you can usually only go "long" hence the QID and other short ETFs are the only ways to get short exposure.

    Stocktrader

    ReplyDelete
  25. MichaelOctober 24, 2011 at 10:43 AM

    Saleem,

    I am in the same camp as yours. I sold everything and bought SMN (short material). So far, it goes against me.

    Michael

    ReplyDelete
  26. Stocks100October 24, 2011 at 10:46 AM

    Hi Michael,

    Short position can take few days to work out.....I am hoping by close Tuesday..i should be positive overall......

    I am expecting a down day on Tuesday.....

    This is the first time i am going for short.

    Good luck with Short idea.

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  27. UpOctober 24, 2011 at 11:07 AM

    SALEEM

    I would rather go short before market close, since in the last 2 weeks of this rally, stock go up more the last hour of trading.

    ReplyDelete
  28. cOctober 24, 2011 at 11:25 AM

    Hello all

    UP
    are you going to use QID, SMN or a stock??

    I do notice that QID is red buy climbing towards green.

    Any one can offer me what amount should done short
    Like 500 shares of QID, or SMN.

    thanks

    ReplyDelete