Thursday, November 17, 2011

Indices closed down again.......

Indices were subjected to typical bear market action for two days in a row, open better & close weaker is the new mantra.

S&P 500 went to 1209.43, but closed @ 1216.13

RSI closed @ 46.37

Internals of the market were as follows :

Down volume led by 12.36 to 1 in NYSE & 5.73 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 4.15 to 1 in NYSE & 2.53 to 1 in Nasdaq

VIX closed @ 34.51 UP 2.98%, this is telling me that market reversal is imminent.

Volume has been higher past two days, which means most of the selling is out of the way.

On the guru front, Jimmy the Cramer is extremely pessimistic, saying no one should be in this market or take your money & wait for a day like today..... that kind of pessimism is a known contrary indicator.

Adami guarantees everyone that 1190 is a given, everytime he predicts that, he has been proven wrong.

Fast Money gang was so depressed that Mr Cassanova (Terranova) is predicting "no end of the year rally this year"

SO, based on Guru read & VIX, do not be surprised IF we close UP on the day.

European issues are known to just about everyone & their grandmother by now, but we keep going down...which is puzzling to me...

So cheer up, just about everyone is down on this market, which means we are all set to rally hard.....

Oil closed @ $98.82

Gold closed @ $1720.20

AH ER were greeted as follows :

INTU UP .10%

CRM Down 6.46%

MRVL UP 3.20%

AH Futures are Mixed

AH Asian Markets are Down

AH Gold UP

AH Oil Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem
at

21 comments:

  1. stocktrader_1996November 17, 2011 at 9:37 PM

    Hey Saleem,

    I am highly interested in adding to my AGU position after today's decline. BAC might be on the chopping block?!

    I'm looking for a flat to up day tomorrow even in the absence of positive news as it would make sense for shorts to cover ahead of the weekend although they could definitely wait until late in the session.

    Stocktrader

    ReplyDelete
  2. cNovember 18, 2011 at 4:34 AM

    Stocktrader

    looks like AGU, POT are green in pre market, my copper play is down again FCX and SCCO copper took a big hit the last 3 days .

    Again Fast Money said all banks are dead money unless they are regional banks l!! So unless you got deeeeeep pockets. ( smile) sell em ... Note:
    I am still holding C--for over 2 years from 100 shares to through the reverse split etc-- and it has gotten health--It will eventually.

    Saleem

    FRO is up pre market
    APPLE may get up and run today --way over sold IMHO

    Lets have a green day!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Stocks100November 18, 2011 at 4:59 AM

    Hi Stocktrader,

    @ market lows, switching is a good idea.

    i am not a fan of AG after my recent loss with POT.

    Good luck with your sale & buy.

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  4. stocktrader_1996November 18, 2011 at 6:04 AM

    Hey guys,

    The pre-market looks much better than I expected this morning! It leaves me in a bit of dilemma on whether to lighten up or not on this easy pop, though.

    As for fertilizer stocks, I have been thinking for a while, and CF mentioned the same in its presentation yesterday, that moderate prices for crops help keep fertilizer demand higher as you don't see the demand destruction. Fertilizer profits are higher when crop volumes are higher, not when crop prices are higher. I think fertilizer stocks are being mispriced right now.

    Stocktrader

    ReplyDelete
  5. Stocks100November 18, 2011 at 6:17 AM

    Hi Stocktrader,

    Please read BHP news about going out of CANPOTEX cartel.

    This is a major shift which will pressure potash prices...this news came out last night.

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  6. stocktrader_1996November 18, 2011 at 6:27 AM

    Hi Saleem,

    Thanks for the info--I'll check it out!

    Stocktrader

    ReplyDelete
  7. UpNovember 18, 2011 at 6:52 AM

    Stocktrader

    I was going to buy mos, but after consult with chart. It is telling me a no no.

    Saleem

    Do you think it is time to buy finance since everyone say it is dead money

    ReplyDelete
  8. Stocks100November 18, 2011 at 6:58 AM

    Hi Up,

    Financial needs to avoided @ all cost.

    Try to position in good growth story @ this stage.

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  9. stocktrader_1996November 18, 2011 at 7:00 AM

    Hey Saleem,

    From that BHP/CANPOTEX article, tt seems like BHP won't have production of ferts until 2015?

    Hey Up,

    Finance will bounce one of these days, I'm just not sure which day :). I think the fertilizer stocks look more like charts that have/are near to bottoms rather than those that will experience further weakness.

    Stocktrader

    ReplyDelete
  10. stocktrader_1996November 18, 2011 at 7:03 AM

    Hey Up,

    I still hold BAC for the domestic recovery story but I continue to question its true earnings power.

    Stocktrader

    ReplyDelete
  11. UpNovember 18, 2011 at 7:08 AM

    Stochtrader

    My sister in law own BAC and i told here it is going to be dead money and big big resistance is at 10, which i don't think it is going to reach for a long time. For finance, i always look at GS as an indicator, if it bounce, everything will follow

    ReplyDelete
  12. Stocks100November 18, 2011 at 7:11 AM

    Hi Stocktrader,

    That mine of BHP will be among the-biggest potash mine in the world.

    Based on my memory, that mine was to come sooner than 2015 more like 2013..i deleted that article which was part of my alert.....

    Anyway, an interesting development for potash prices in future.

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  13. UpNovember 18, 2011 at 7:12 AM

    Saleem


    With fall of fertilizer stocks, i am a little worry about my X holding. I am debating if i should sell it now

    ReplyDelete
  14. UpNovember 18, 2011 at 7:18 AM

    HI ALL

    Don't forget today is monthly option exp. week

    ReplyDelete
  15. cNovember 18, 2011 at 7:26 AM

    HELLO to all

    UP
    I thought next week was option expiring

    AGU is up nice today as is my POT

    I am having trouble with my copper plays - Yeks
    the market is so shacked

    goo dluck

    ReplyDelete
  16. Stocks100November 18, 2011 at 7:30 AM

    Hi C,

    Monthly Option expiry is 3rd friday of each month...

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  17. cNovember 18, 2011 at 8:19 AM

    Thanks
    Saleem for straightening me out on OE.

    C

    ReplyDelete
  18. stocktrader_1996November 18, 2011 at 9:32 AM

    Hey Saleem,

    I feel the hopelessness of owning good companies but having no European solution. I have been making subtle adjustments to my portfolio to position for the best stories in the future, but that process is pretty much complete. It has now become a mentally- and emotionally-draining waiting game...

    Stocktrader

    ReplyDelete
  19. Stocks100November 18, 2011 at 9:52 AM

    Hi Stocktrader,

    YES..it is extremely challenging to figure out TAPE action in any stock......

    I am staying put with my four positions which is being hammered..PCLN has $44 per share gain...i thought for once i will wait for new all time highs.....but now i am down $6 per share.......

    BIDU is under attack also......but i will wait it out.....

    Challenge & head spinning it IS.....

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete
  20. cNovember 18, 2011 at 10:48 AM

    S

    Maybe a very green close..

    Looking good

    Sorry about PLCN being so stubborn
    I trade you my APLLE 355 call........?
    Ha

    best to all

    ReplyDelete
  21. Stocks100November 18, 2011 at 11:27 AM

    Hi C,

    NO trade..we both need to make money in AAPL & PCLN.....

    First time, i did not lock profit & suffered because of it.....lesson learned AGAIN....

    Saleem

    ReplyDelete