Ben Bernanke gave market what they were wishing but NOT expecting.
All indices made another multi-year high.
S&P 500 closed @ 1459.99, high today was 1463.76
RSI @ 73.30
CMF @ 0.178
Internals were :
UP volume led by 9.74 to 1 in NYSE & 3.83 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 3.66 to 1 in NYSE & 2.66 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 349 in NYSE & 198 in Nasdaq
VIX down 11.08% @ 14.05
Oil closed @ $98.31
Gold closed @ $1772.10
Stocks which were UP 2% or more included LVS,AUY,
EXPE,TCK,AEM,GG,BIDU,KORS,FCX,GOOG,
MLNX,PANW,NTES,CLF,SU,MU,FNSR,C,
QCOM,X,STLD,EGO,SLW,SINA,MFC,
ECA,BAC,MS,WYNN,SNE,GS,IBN.....
AH Futures UP
AH Asian Markets UP
AH Oil & Gold UP
About market, Ben Euphoria is @ its peak, which is a contrary indicator. I expect market to mark time & pull back to deal with "severe overbought condition". Again i will be taking equity out of this market. End of October may be an opportune time to be "fully invested".
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Hi C,
ReplyDeleteI take the following vitamins on a daily basis.... 6 Evening Primrose Oil,2 B Complex 50,2 Vitamin C to deal with my "hyperthyroidism"....
1 Multiple vitamin, 1 Glucosamine Sulphate with Chondritin minimum 900 MG for better health & help with Joints....all on a daily basis for @ least a year for "hyperthyroidism" & others for 25 years.....
Saleem
Hi Stocktrader,
ReplyDeleteHad an interesting discussion with my doctor on my approach for treating "hyperthyroidism" vs traditional.
Will go for blood test soon to see IF my approach has worked or not.....other than that everything is fine.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteDepending on the doctor, I'm sure he was less than receptive. I hope your blood test finally proves the good health you are feeling daily!
As for the market, the Fed statement was extremely powerful and also unexpected (amazing given how much pre-analysis we do). Given that, the rally yesterday was definitely warranted, and again made me look like a fool despite the 0.6% gain I managed.
As you rightly point out, the question is where we go from here. I still feel like we are in the "honeymoon phase" somewhat and might see further gains in coming days, although I would love a pullback. I can't remove my hedge until some Monday and some Tuesday, so I will feel the full drag of any upward move, and then I have decisions to make.
Realistically, the $40B per month in MBS isn't a huge deal, but the promise of QE4ever is a mind set that takes some digestion. Now where do commodities stand? Do I need to shift away from tech and back into those? I have much thinking to do.
Stocktrader
SALEEM
ReplyDeletethank you for your health update - it is important that we all understand how short life is and and how we all cope with our health issues--you seem to do better than most!!!!!!!!
Hurray
I hope that you blood work up, is great. Your approach to holistic health is very good.....
C
Stock-man
ReplyDeleteIf ya look toward Gold and copper they are up as is oil
THe prices of commodities are to the moon Alice
I only have GNN --gold and SCCO Copper
Good luck on your decisions--FCX is OK too
C
Hi Stocktrader,
ReplyDeleteCommodity will benefit on one count that US$ is going down which helps.
I am not sure that BB has created a worldwide demand for copper, nickel with this magic wand.....
Good luck with your "switch"
Saleem
Hi C,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your feedback on my "non-traditional medical approach".....
It is IRONIC that IF i go traditional route it cost me $0....as healthcare is 100% free in Canada......BUT it cost me$ to go my route....
Saleem
Hey c,
ReplyDeleteAs much as I didn't want to be in gold because I feel like it isn't a real investment (no earnings, based on the bad currencies, etc), it is impossible to ignore now. I don't know what to do after such a huge run, so I'll have to portfolio rethink this weekend.
I think there is a disproportionate move happening right now between what the Fed action can really do and how much earnings can move, but this is really a P/E expansion scenario because people will trust the forward earnings more if they think the Fed will keep pumping and pumping. P/E expansion scenarios are tricky to market gauge because you have no idea how far they can go (see 1999-2000), but I'm almost positive we will run over every single short seller in the market before it's over.
(In proofreading my post, the prior paragraph is really a game changer. I'm even more worried about my short term pain on my hedges now.)
Stocktrader
SALEEM
ReplyDeleteWho really know what will happen
MY comments were met to keep a sharp eye on OIL , Gold, Copper, POT fertilizer --they are all up this AM.
Oh my REITS are in fire too......
But what do I know, as a retired Master Sergeant
C
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteI've been thinking more about my last post, and I'm even more convicted in that idea.
Think about a company like ETN. It is trading at 10x next year's estimates, which is historically very low. This is because of the lack of trust in those estimates to some degree. With the Fed promising to continue to pump until the unemployment rate drops, and then continuing to pump even as the recovery strengthens to avoid the false starts we've seen previously, you can be more confident in ETN's earnings! You might pay up to the more historical 12-15X earnings, and maybe even more with their good dividend and the low "risk-free" treasuries rate. This could produce a rally in ETN of 20-50%+ *just* on P/E expansion due to more confidence in the next year's earnings.
This is what I'm talking about. I'm astounded with my conclusions.
Stocktrader
Hi C,
ReplyDeleteBooking profit has to be a major goal.....
Futures are not so hot now?
Saleem
Hi Stocktrader,
ReplyDeleteI see what you are saying...but pre-market futures are not so euphoric?
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteOh yes, I'm not talking today necessarily. In fact, I'm hoping for a pullback to save me somewhat. And tricky things like the pre-fiscal cliff and Middle East/Iran can get in the way of any rally. This is more just looking forward, and any move will be slow and steady likely.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
ReplyDeleteI think you have more than fair chance of making money on TZA......
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteBought WPRT at ~31.836.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteI also think GGC is a steal here given the housing rebound and low nat gas prices. It has loads of debt given its recent purchase, but that's the perfect position in a rebounding industry--it allows you to leverage your earnings power dramatically.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
ReplyDeleteI have done nothing in terms of buying..Sold AUY.....
I am left with LVS only.....
Saleem
Salleem
ReplyDeleteMy stocks are on fire
BIDU. Finally coming back form $107. Now we need $117
It is coming
SCCO, going lots higher
SDRL. Is also hot
This the mother of all stock market runs
PS
I am on my way to Seattle, WA.
Using iPad
Good luck
Hi C,
ReplyDeleteEnjoy your trip to Seattle.
I am glad BIDU is ALIVE now....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteI really like APKT here. Carriers are really starting to spend on their LTE networks and a buyout possibility always exists.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteI've been looking at a bad calculation for PANW's market cap for a while. Looking at the earnings release (to verify the new Yahoo! market cap), it is valued at only ~1.8B (vs near 4.5B I've been seeing for a month). That is a complete steal for this company!! I was tempted to sell for APKT, but there's no way I can now.
Maybe I'll sell the GRPN after the huge run to set up in some APKT. I'm still thinking...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
ReplyDeleteI went to investing.money.msn.com & it shows 4.56 Billion Market Cap...PANW has 66.60 million Outstanding stock X $68.10 =$4.54 Billion.....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteHmm. Their earnings press release makes it rather confusing as to how many outstanding shares there are. I think the original number (66M+) might actually be correct. We'll have to wait for the 10-Q to tell for sure I think, but for now I guess I didn't have a revelation after all...
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteJust generally too, I'm looking for companies that we were unsure if they'd grow (and now will thanks to the Fed/ECB/China/etc) versus those that we always knew would grow (like PANW). Those that we were unsure of before should outperform the market in this current rally phase.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteOk, so I did sell the PANW at 68.00 for the APKT at ~19.572.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
ReplyDeleteYES..environment for growth has changed for the better with ECB & FED actions.......
BUT..market got "deeply overbought in anticipation & actual news"....few weeks of rest is required for this "over-worked TAPE"
Saleem
Hi Stocktrader,
ReplyDeleteGood luck with APKT.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteI think you're right, but I think the rest period might be mostly sideways, and a product of rotation--out of all that safe stuff and into the risky. So the overall market will look flat, but there will be many outperformers.
Stocktrader