Techs were strong whole day & finished in GREEN !!!!
S&P 500 stayed above support......
Oil took a major tumble to $122 area....$120 is MAJOR support area.....
US$ getting stronger by the minute.....
Solar stocks were beaten down on TWO analyst negative notes...One highlighting the virtue of thin-film and other highlighting Spain potential reduction in subsidy like Germany....Ironically thin-film FSLR was down $14.44 or 5.64% among the worst....
Solar stocks were also down with Oil as a factor.......
In my portfolio :
Added 25% SOL ....my cost went down to $26.31
AAPL rating 60/85 target $203.50
RIMM rating 65/85 target $149.11
SOL No TA.....SOL retested the low of Monday which was $22.90 today's low $22.95....
Strong stocks were BIDU,ISRG,GS,GOOG,BRCM,QLD,GRMN,VMW,SOHU...
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Markets moving UP....Oil down AGAIN !!!
Markets are showing sign of life after testing support in S&P 500...
All the economic reports showing sign of life in economy & wage inflation moderating !!!
OIL is down
US$ is UP......Ben magic is working 3 days in a row !!!
Techs are the strongest sector so far......
Solar is trying to stay NEAR unchanged levels.....mostly RED !!!!
In my portfolio :
AAPL UP 98 cents
SOL down 40 cents
RIMM UP $2.45
@ 11.44 AM the following are green :
TSL(reports friday before open),BRCM,JNPR,VMW,CTRN,
YHOO (renewed talks with MSFT),IGT,WYNN,BIDU,WYN,
LVS,SOHU,ISRG,SNE,AMZN,DRYS,GOOG,GRMN,AKAM,SINA,
X,NVTL.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
All the economic reports showing sign of life in economy & wage inflation moderating !!!
OIL is down
US$ is UP......Ben magic is working 3 days in a row !!!
Techs are the strongest sector so far......
Solar is trying to stay NEAR unchanged levels.....mostly RED !!!!
In my portfolio :
AAPL UP 98 cents
SOL down 40 cents
RIMM UP $2.45
@ 11.44 AM the following are green :
TSL(reports friday before open),BRCM,JNPR,VMW,CTRN,
YHOO (renewed talks with MSFT),IGT,WYNN,BIDU,WYN,
LVS,SOHU,ISRG,SNE,AMZN,DRYS,GOOG,GRMN,AKAM,SINA,
X,NVTL.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Markets trading in narrow range 1370-1400 in S&P 500???
Markets are trading in a very narrow range of S&P 500 ..1370 to 1400 back & forth???
News on Lehman & Wachovia have been negative lately...impacting financials.....
Markets will NOT rally unless financials participate......
Markets made an effort of rallying into close ......
In my portfolio :
AAPL rating 35/90 target $206.11
RIMM rating 45/85 target $149.25
SOL No TA.....SOL showed relative strength by closing UP.....
Strong stocks were POT,AGU,MOS,FSLR,TSL,BIDU,V,DUG,X,
NYX,GRMN,SOHU......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
News on Lehman & Wachovia have been negative lately...impacting financials.....
Markets will NOT rally unless financials participate......
Markets made an effort of rallying into close ......
In my portfolio :
AAPL rating 35/90 target $206.11
RIMM rating 45/85 target $149.25
SOL No TA.....SOL showed relative strength by closing UP.....
Strong stocks were POT,AGU,MOS,FSLR,TSL,BIDU,V,DUG,X,
NYX,GRMN,SOHU......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets in GREEN !!!!
Markets are showing "turnaround Tuesday" tape.....
Oil is down...
Gold is down...
US$ is UP....
Bernanke knows that his real mandate of controlling inflation involves US$ to be strong...so all commodities like OIL can go down as they are priced in US$......Bernanke is articulating that in order for US$ to be strong interest rates cannot go down.......this hint will attract capital flow into US$ based economy where US$ will be heading higher ...so double gain for foreign investors....
In my portfolio :
AAPL UP $1.50
RIMM down 82 cents..GS raised the target on RIMM to $163..but wants to buy shares cheap..so it is addng cautionary note that RIMM may guide Aug Q lower than consensus....which I totally disagree as they are releasing their 3G phone BOLD in that Q...which will boost sales in that Q further !!!!
SOL UP 71 cents.....tape looking very strong when OIL is down !!!!
@ 11.35 AM the following are green :
POT,AGU,SNDK,V,VMW,CCJ,BIDU,SOHU,NYX,FSLR,AMZN,GOOG,
TSL,QLD,TSO,X......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Oil is down...
Gold is down...
US$ is UP....
Bernanke knows that his real mandate of controlling inflation involves US$ to be strong...so all commodities like OIL can go down as they are priced in US$......Bernanke is articulating that in order for US$ to be strong interest rates cannot go down.......this hint will attract capital flow into US$ based economy where US$ will be heading higher ...so double gain for foreign investors....
In my portfolio :
AAPL UP $1.50
RIMM down 82 cents..GS raised the target on RIMM to $163..but wants to buy shares cheap..so it is addng cautionary note that RIMM may guide Aug Q lower than consensus....which I totally disagree as they are releasing their 3G phone BOLD in that Q...which will boost sales in that Q further !!!!
SOL UP 71 cents.....tape looking very strong when OIL is down !!!!
@ 11.35 AM the following are green :
POT,AGU,SNDK,V,VMW,CCJ,BIDU,SOHU,NYX,FSLR,AMZN,GOOG,
TSL,QLD,TSO,X......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Monday, June 2, 2008
Markets improved @ close...Good Technical Action !!!
S&P 500 went near SUPPORT to 1377.79 & rallied UP to 1385.67.......This market has lot of buyers who step in whenever it comes close to SUPPORT...thus ensuring a better close!!!!
Tuesday could be "turnaround day".......
In my portfolio :
AAPL rating 30/85 target $203.42
RIMM rating 1585 target $149.30
SOL No TA......SOL tape was very impressive today as its volume was barely higher than yesterday...so NO selling/volume on secondary offering...Closed HIGHER than OPEN price...very strong technical indicator.....MS downgraded SOL to underweight(SELL)..still NO volume & closing better than AH yesterday.....a sure sign of better TAPE to come......
AH LULU BEAT big time on Sales....BUT EPS was in-line...also guiding 2 cents LOWER EPS for Q2.....Down almost $4 AH.... down 11.2%.....
SEED also shedding 12% or 82 cents AH on another losing Q...BUT promising EPS gain for FY 9/08......
Strong stocks were CSIQ,MA,TSO,VLO,GRMN......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Tuesday could be "turnaround day".......
In my portfolio :
AAPL rating 30/85 target $203.42
RIMM rating 1585 target $149.30
SOL No TA......SOL tape was very impressive today as its volume was barely higher than yesterday...so NO selling/volume on secondary offering...Closed HIGHER than OPEN price...very strong technical indicator.....MS downgraded SOL to underweight(SELL)..still NO volume & closing better than AH yesterday.....a sure sign of better TAPE to come......
AH LULU BEAT big time on Sales....BUT EPS was in-line...also guiding 2 cents LOWER EPS for Q2.....Down almost $4 AH.... down 11.2%.....
SEED also shedding 12% or 82 cents AH on another losing Q...BUT promising EPS gain for FY 9/08......
Strong stocks were CSIQ,MA,TSO,VLO,GRMN......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets sinking on Technical resistance of 1400 to 1405 on S&P 500 ???
Markets are being pounded based on technical resistance on S&P 500...where 1400 to 1405 was a major resistance...& it IS proving to be one today.....
Lot of institutions & hedge funds trade on TA.....so ....they take it UP from SUPPORT & bring it DOWN @ RESISTANCE......SEE...they control the market with their Billion $ bets.......
Markets were down when OIL was down ..& now OIL is UP and markets are in DEEP RED....
In my portfolio :
AAPL down $3.69
RIMM down $2.85
SOL down $1.55.....behaving much better than my expectations,Went down to $22.90 in reg hrs..in pre-market went down to $22.60 !!!
@ 1.15 PM the following are green :
CSIQ (new contract),TSO(upgraded),YGE(upgraded),POT,
JRCC,MA,VLO,SNE,FWLT,LULU(reports AH..expect a BEAT),
X,QID,SDS....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
PS...Had trouble posting due to Google website issues......
PS...Mother asked me to THANK all well wishers!!!!
Saleem
Lot of institutions & hedge funds trade on TA.....so ....they take it UP from SUPPORT & bring it DOWN @ RESISTANCE......SEE...they control the market with their Billion $ bets.......
Markets were down when OIL was down ..& now OIL is UP and markets are in DEEP RED....
In my portfolio :
AAPL down $3.69
RIMM down $2.85
SOL down $1.55.....behaving much better than my expectations,Went down to $22.90 in reg hrs..in pre-market went down to $22.60 !!!
@ 1.15 PM the following are green :
CSIQ (new contract),TSO(upgraded),YGE(upgraded),POT,
JRCC,MA,VLO,SNE,FWLT,LULU(reports AH..expect a BEAT),
X,QID,SDS....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
PS...Had trouble posting due to Google website issues......
PS...Mother asked me to THANK all well wishers!!!!
Saleem
Sunday, June 1, 2008
SELL in MAY & GO away...WILL it WORK ????
There is a popular myth in wall street that "sell in May & go away"...works all the time???
In wall street no myth is ever accurate.....it is selective truth we are dealing with....
Many strong stocks have "multi year RUNUP".....check AAPL,RIMM,POT...they are going UP & UP for many years they have DOUBLED in past two years MINIMUM..... RIMM & POT actually have QUADRUPLED...RIMM is my single best idea in the last TWO years......
Both AAPL & RIMM are poised to double from here AGAIN !!!!!
So if you sold in May and have gone fishing...then you will NOT catch AAPL,RIMM or Solar $$$$..
So...what looks good for June to December...I say Tech,Solar will be in the front line of rapid gain....
For bargain hunters Home builders,retail & refiners...will "show you the MONEY"
Last year darlings will take a well deserved REST....as all the good news are in the price already...
So .....as you know i am positioned in RIMM,AAPL & SOL & as of Friday my $ weighting is :
AAPL 27.4%
RIMM 52.5%
SOL 20.1%
You MAY ask why such a concentrated position in 3 stocks only?
Because ......based on their rapid Sales & EPS growth they are all set to DOUBLE ...so why mess around with IFFY ideas ...if one has CONVICTION in 3 best stocks.......
..............................SOL .............AAPL..........RIMM
Sales 12/08...............$575.36M..........$32.68B....$10.31B
Sales 12/09...............$874.30M...........$39.42B...$13.90B
Sales Growth rate.....+52%.................+20.6%.....+34.7%
EPS 12/08.................$1.26..................$5.22..........$3.86
EPS 12/09.................$2.00..................$6.34..........$5.24
EPS Growth Rate....+58.7%................+21.4%.......35.7%
Stock Price Target....$40....................$220...........$200
Current stock price $25.08................$188.75.....$138.87
Potential gain...........+59.8%................+16.5%......+44%
Not a bad picture for Buy in May and WAIT for the GAIN !!!
SOL secondary offer to sell additional 8.15 Million shares plus over allotment of another 1.35 million shares equals a total offering of additional 9.50 million shares which IS a dilution of 16%...
The purpose of this offering is to use $70 million in one plant Expansion+ Equipments & $100 million in another plant construction & equipment...which will BOOST SOL Sales & EPS in 2008 & 2009 .....BIG TIME.....the rest of the money is to be used for general corporate purpose......
SOL has NOT priced its secondary offering YET.....I expect it to be priced @ $22.50...so SOL will get $22.50 X9.50 million shares =$213.75 million....after all cost/expense SOL will end UP with $210 million $ for expansion...& a major boost to Balance Sheet.....where $210 million will earn interest also......
As SOL is NOT doing convertible...there is NO interest cost and there is NO provision to give shares for Shorting to buyers...generally there is a complete restriction of sales for up to 6 months......
I do expect shares to DROP to $22.50 area and then recover @ close near $23...so a drop of $2 or 7.9% IS NORM.......
SOL will start recovering when the pricing of 9.50 million is announced...which could be as early as Tuesday......until then SOL will be blocked around $23.50 area......
So....based on above scenario.....one should be positioned to buy more SOL on weakness !!!!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
PS....mother is recovering fast thanks to all well wishers....she spoke last night around 8.30 PM and was sitting comfortably in chair.....only minor discomfort in her surgery area.
Saleem
In wall street no myth is ever accurate.....it is selective truth we are dealing with....
Many strong stocks have "multi year RUNUP".....check AAPL,RIMM,POT...they are going UP & UP for many years they have DOUBLED in past two years MINIMUM..... RIMM & POT actually have QUADRUPLED...RIMM is my single best idea in the last TWO years......
Both AAPL & RIMM are poised to double from here AGAIN !!!!!
So if you sold in May and have gone fishing...then you will NOT catch AAPL,RIMM or Solar $$$$..
So...what looks good for June to December...I say Tech,Solar will be in the front line of rapid gain....
For bargain hunters Home builders,retail & refiners...will "show you the MONEY"
Last year darlings will take a well deserved REST....as all the good news are in the price already...
So .....as you know i am positioned in RIMM,AAPL & SOL & as of Friday my $ weighting is :
AAPL 27.4%
RIMM 52.5%
SOL 20.1%
You MAY ask why such a concentrated position in 3 stocks only?
Because ......based on their rapid Sales & EPS growth they are all set to DOUBLE ...so why mess around with IFFY ideas ...if one has CONVICTION in 3 best stocks.......
..............................SOL .............AAPL..........RIMM
Sales 12/08...............$575.36M..........$32.68B....$10.31B
Sales 12/09...............$874.30M...........$39.42B...$13.90B
Sales Growth rate.....+52%.................+20.6%.....+34.7%
EPS 12/08.................$1.26..................$5.22..........$3.86
EPS 12/09.................$2.00..................$6.34..........$5.24
EPS Growth Rate....+58.7%................+21.4%.......35.7%
Stock Price Target....$40....................$220...........$200
Current stock price $25.08................$188.75.....$138.87
Potential gain...........+59.8%................+16.5%......+44%
Not a bad picture for Buy in May and WAIT for the GAIN !!!
SOL secondary offer to sell additional 8.15 Million shares plus over allotment of another 1.35 million shares equals a total offering of additional 9.50 million shares which IS a dilution of 16%...
The purpose of this offering is to use $70 million in one plant Expansion+ Equipments & $100 million in another plant construction & equipment...which will BOOST SOL Sales & EPS in 2008 & 2009 .....BIG TIME.....the rest of the money is to be used for general corporate purpose......
SOL has NOT priced its secondary offering YET.....I expect it to be priced @ $22.50...so SOL will get $22.50 X9.50 million shares =$213.75 million....after all cost/expense SOL will end UP with $210 million $ for expansion...& a major boost to Balance Sheet.....where $210 million will earn interest also......
As SOL is NOT doing convertible...there is NO interest cost and there is NO provision to give shares for Shorting to buyers...generally there is a complete restriction of sales for up to 6 months......
I do expect shares to DROP to $22.50 area and then recover @ close near $23...so a drop of $2 or 7.9% IS NORM.......
SOL will start recovering when the pricing of 9.50 million is announced...which could be as early as Tuesday......until then SOL will be blocked around $23.50 area......
So....based on above scenario.....one should be positioned to buy more SOL on weakness !!!!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
PS....mother is recovering fast thanks to all well wishers....she spoke last night around 8.30 PM and was sitting comfortably in chair.....only minor discomfort in her surgery area.
Saleem
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