Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Indices mixed.....

Indices made lower lows again BUT trying hard to come back.

S&P 500 @ 1753.17, low 1737.92, high 1755.79

Internals are negative

Oil UP 24 cents

Gold UP $5.60

Canadian $ UP 17 tick @ 89.36

VIX UP .47% @ 19.20

In my portfolio :

Sold EXTR @ $5.86

Bought TWTR @ $66.41

Portfolio JKS KOG MU TWTR

TWTR reports AH, expectations are :

Q4 Sales $217.82 million, EPS loss of 2 cents

Guidance expected Q1 Sales $215.23 million, EPS loss of 3 cents

There is a huge short position which could trigger major move......direction we have to wait AH.

Most stocks are down

@ 2.15 following are green :

MU SWKS OTEX BBRY LNKD M NFLX 
MS KORS AAPL GOOG TSL SU CMG
EBAY V YNDX GMCR LRCX SNDK
C SPLK MCD STLD SLW AEM
JCP SPWR Z MLNX.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

EXTR misses on Sales & EPS.....

EXTR reported the following :

Q2 Sales actual $148.3 million vs expectations of $151.64

Q2 EPS actual 14 cents vs expectations of 15 cents

Guiding Q3 Sales $140 to $155 million mid point $147.5 million vs expectations of $153.88 million

Guiding Q3 EPS 1 cent to 6 cents  mid point 3.5 cents vs expectations of 8 cents

Pre market EXTR indicated lower Bid $6.05 ASK $6.60...closed @ $7.04

Conference call starts @ 8 AM.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Indices closed UP .47% to .86%....NICE !!!!

Indices closed UP on average volume.

S&P 500 @ 1755.20, high 1758.73

RSI @ 36.09

CMF @ 0.068

Internals were :

UP volume led by 3.04 to 1 in NYSE & 2.27 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 2.12 to 1 in NYSE & 1.64 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 41 in NYSE & 22 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 10.87% @ 19.11

Oil @ $97.19

Gold @ $1251.20

Stocks which were UP 1.5% or more included EXTR JKS KOG
SWIR TWTR BBRY FB BIDU KORS TSL CSIQ FSLR
YHOO LEN SINA DNKN YUM YNDX PANW Z
SPLK SBUX EGO GG WLT WYNN TRIP 
YELP MLNX.....

AH ER DATA UP 15.13%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE was much better today by staging an oversold bounce. We may go sideways to slightly lower until Friday's jobs report. It is important to act "opportunistically" @ money making ideas. Many stocks are "priced for perfection" & may tumble @ ER, TWTR may be one of those risky bet.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .35% to .80%.......

Indices are staging an oversold bounce.

S&P 500 @ 1752.18, high 1758.73

Internals are positive by 2 to 1

Oil UP 87 cents

Gold Down $8.90

Canadian $ UP 53 tick @ 89.37

VIX Down 11.61% @ 18.95

Portfolio EXTR JKS KOG MU

EXTR reporting before open on Wednesday, expectations are :

Q4 Sales $151.64 million, EPS 15 cents

Q1 guidance Sales $153.88 million, EPS 8 cents

EXTR has beat expectation in last 2 Q, expecting a beat.

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.01 following are red :

MA TWTR LNKD MGA M NFLX CMG SU
COH CIEN FNSR SLW AEM JCP WUBA
CSOD AGU.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, February 3, 2014

Indices closed down 2.08% to 2.61%.......

TAPE was under severe selling pressure on high volume & closed near low of the day.

S&P 500 @ 1741.89, low 1739.66

RSI @ 31.24

CMF @ 0.017

Internals were :

Down volume led by 18.58 to 1 in NYSE & 13.60 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 5.68 to 1 in NYSE & 6.67 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 91 in NYSE & 29 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 16.46% @ 21.44

Oil @ $96.43

Gold @ $1259.90

AH ER YUM UP 4.11%

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down

About market, There was panic & fear on Wall Street which included Jimmy the Cramer, This is a contrary indicator that we are all set for an oversold bounce.There is a very good chance that we will close UP on Tuesday. S&P 500 have pulled back 111.18 points or 6.00% correction. This correction was healthy after a huge run in 2013.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices breaks support, down 1.65% to 2.39%......

Poor manufacturing data from US came in below consensus. All indices have broken support while Dow is below 200 DMA......

S&P 500 @ 1747.888, low 1744.20, S&P 500 down 106.64 points or 5.76%

Internals are negative 5 to 1 in S&P 500 & 7 to 1 in Nasdaq

Oil Down $1.01

Gold UP $19.30 @ 90.10

Canadian $ UP 35 tick

VIX UP 11.35% @ 20.50, high today 21.13

In my portfolio :

Sold AUY @ $9.40

Bought EXTR @ $7.06

Portfolio EXTR JKS KOG MU

Most stocks are down

@ 2.19 following are UP :

TWTR AAPL EGO GG AEM .....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


Sunday, February 2, 2014

Ugly, bad & good about this TAPE.....

January has given its verdict about 2014 market. It has been ugly in major indices.....

January worst month since October 2012 for Nasdaq.

January worst month since May 2012 for S&P 500

January worst month  since January 2009 for Dow.

Nasdaq is above 50 DMA  by about 9 points, Dow & S&P 500 are well below 50 DMA.

S&P 500 low so far is 1770.45, i do not believe it has a chance to defend this low.IF we break 1770 then we are heading towards 200 DMA which currently sits @ 1706.44....

Weakness which is bad may persist because of  :

-Collapsing emerging market currencies

-Chinese slowdown

-India slowing down

-Brazil, Argentina in currency freefall.

-Turkey & South Africa raising interest rates alongwith India.

-Jobs report may be weak again in US, too many layoffs happening in Retail sector.

Most of the selling in January has been on high volume.......

What is good about this TAPE that few stocks have bucked the trend based on good earnings, FB, GOOG ,CMG, NFLX to name a few.......

How to deal with this ugly TAPE is to take a very conservative approach to ride this storm. It may get more ugly before it gets better.

Keep some exposure in "high comfort stocks"

Fed curtailment of buying by $20 billion is playing havoc in Emerging market, tight US liquidity means downward pressure in all currencies.Even Canadian $ is down almost 12%.

Resource sector is in trouble because of lower demand from China , India & other emerging economies.

It will take a while before "all clear" is given.

Stock Market is facing many uncertainties & less support from Fed...not a good cocktail mix. It will bring more volatility thus VIX may break towards 24 area.

Do not celebrate "oversold bounce" because that is exactly what it will be, then back to lower lows.

Patience & Time is what is needed to repair technical damage to this TAPE.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem