Monday, September 14, 2015

Indices closed down .34% to .41%.....

Indices closed lower.

S&P 500 @ 1953.01, low 1948.27, high 1963.06

RSI @ 43.81

CMF @ -0.096

Internals were :

Down volume led by 2.05 to 1 in NYSE & 1.70 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.10 to 1 in NYSE & 1.55 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 96 in NYSE & 24 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 4.53% @ 24.25

Oil @ $44.00

Gold @ $1107.70

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE participated in wait & see game of Fed raising interest rate or not. Many traders and funds are on the sidelines until then. Currently is a good buying opportunity before market takes off. Many stocks are stable to slightly UP on most days and are showing good relative strength, pay attention to strong stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices down .36% to .45%......

Indices are slightly lower as many participant are in a "wait for Fed move"

S&P 500 @ 1951.94, low 1948.27, high 1963.06

Internals are negative by almost 2 to 1

Oil Down 65 cents

Gold UP $4.20

Canadian $ Down 8 tick @ 67.32

VIX UP 5.69% @ 24.52

Portfolio CNQ FB FIT LULU NXPI RAD TSL VDSI

Most stocks are down

@ 2.29 following are green :

FB NXPI AMBA TSLA AAPL GPRO YNDX CRUS
Z TRIP......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Fed all set to raise rates & markets will ?

Last 6 weeks have been the steepest slump in S&P 500 in a long time, we lost 265.81 points or 12.46% from 2nd week in July to 3rd week in August.....

In the last 12 trading days we have recovered 94.04 points or 5.04% to close @ 1961.05 from low of 1867.01.....

Many traders are wondering, IF we are headed back to test lows and go sharply under as predicted by technicians & big time hedge fund manager......

Reason for above slump is known to all China, China ,China......

Chinese economy is taking a swift dive from super growth rate of 12% in 2008 to current 6%.....

It IS important to analyse how huge economies like China operate, it is shifting from export oriented to consumption oriented, they are no longer the cheapest place to manufacture goods, it could be Vietnam now......

I do not believe that 6% growth rate is bad @ all, it is among the highest in first world countries, India is growing @ 5%+, US 3%+ & Europe coming out of major slump. 

Canada & Australia hurting badly due to commodities slump.

SO..we have gone through many months of discounting Chinese growth issue and Fed intention of raising interest rate......

This week we may see the climactic resolution of interest rate debate, which may result in .25% raising of interest rates.....

Now the next debate is how the market will react to interest rate hike, most common conclusion is,that we go down to test lows and undercut recent lows.....

The trouble with technicians, pundits and hedge fund genius is, that they are only right 50% of the time, a law of Wall Street to teach humility and allows for backtracking or Monday morning quarter backing.

I personally believe that we have more than discounted Chinese sluggish growth & Fed interest rate uptick, there may be knee jerk reaction to these news, but we are on firmer ground, technically speaking, so may withstand these mini shocks easily.

On the sentiment side, after a long long time, i am seeing extreme negativity, bulls are 25.7% and bears are 27.9%....this tilt in bears on the lead by 2.2% is extremely good news for "contrary reaction "

All in all, i will not be surprised, IF we see a major move UP in indices this week.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, September 11, 2015

Indices closed UP .45% to .63%.....NICE !!!!

Indices closed @ highest point of the day.

S&P 500 @ 1961.05, high 1961.05, low 1939.19

RSI @ 44.89

CMF @ -0.058

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.22 to 1 in NYSE & 1.35 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.14 to 1 in NYSE & 1.35 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 125 in NYSE & 48 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 4.80% @ 23.20

Oil @ $44.63

Gold @ $1103.30

Canadian $ @ 67.40

Stocks which closed UP 1% or more NXPI RAD VDSI
YY LNKD AAPL BABA JKS AMZN SINA YUM
MA FSLR AAL SBUX MCD ABX SLW AEM
MGA BRCM Z MLNX.....

Here is my weighting :

FB   26.22%

LULU 21.54%

NXPI  15.11%

RAD  10.54%

VDSI  8.69%

FIT     8.31%

TSL    6.75%

CNQ   2.84%

Exposure 295%

Next post by 2 PM Sunday

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Indices closed UP .47% to 84%....NICE !!!!

Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 1952.28, high 1965.29, low 1937.19

RSI @ 43.47

CMF @ -0.105

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.46 to 1 in NYSE & 2.04 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.16 to 1 in NYSE & 1.35 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 105 in NYSE & 31 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 7.09% @ 24.37

Oil @ $45.92

Gold @ $1109.30

Stocks which were UP 1%+ CNQ FB RAD VDSI
AMBA LNKD GOOGL AAPL SWIR TWTR
COH MU JKS AMZN EXPE YELP FSLR
YNDX FNSR GMCR SPLK SBUX 
AEM CSOD BRCM Z.....

AH ER...FNSR Down 10.53%, ZUMZ Down 20.31%
               PFPT UP 8.66%

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil Down

AH Gold UP

About market, TAPE braved lowest jobless data, plus super bearish comments from David Tepper who is looking for 20% correction and Carter Worth looking for 1800 in S&P 500. Market has learned to do their own things despite bear parade. TAPE may have finished discounting Fed rate hike and it may be "buy the news". Stay with your best ideas with conviction and patience.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .91% to 1.14%.....NICE !!!!

Indices are UP after being lower.

S&P 500 @ 1959.28, high 1965.29, low 1937.19

Internals are positive

Oil UP $1.65

Gold UP $8.00

Canadian $ UP 63 tick @ 68.08

VIX Down 5.03% @ 24.91

Portfolio CNQ FB FIT LULU NXPI RAD TSL VDSI

LULU earning report for Q2 was a beat but its guidance for Q3 although higher in Sales but lower EPS due to margin pressure. Inventory is also an issue, stock is being punished down 16.10%. I see those issues as temporary and should go away by end of current Q.

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.53 following are red :

FIT LULU NXPI NFLX FEYE YHOO BIDU BABA
LVS LEN SINA DNKN YUM SPWR CRUS 
CIEN QIHU AMCC M X STLD CCJ 
WYNN MLNX.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Indices closed down 1.15% to 1.45%.....

Indices closed down

S&P 500 @ 1942.04, low 1937.88, high 1988.63

RSI @ 41.85

CMF @ -0.067

Internals were :

Down volume led by 6.38 to 1 in NYSE & 3.33 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 3.09 to 1 in NYSE & 2.20 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 33 in NYSE & 8 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 5.34% @ 26.23

Oil @ $44.15

Gold @ $1102.00

In my portfolio :

Sold GPRO @ $33.90

Bought NXPI @ $88.93

AH ER...PANW UP 4.81%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, tonight IBD has changed its market outlook to "uptrend under pressure" TAPE did a nasty reversal which is not good for building confidence in this market. This TAPE is becoming extremely selective, so it is important to look for winners, also pronounced weakness to be sold.
Hopefully we can find footing on Thursday to build upon. Patience and conviction are heavily in demand to cope with this volatility.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem