Sunday, March 8, 2020

Will Indices test recent lows......

Only 6 trading days ago, we slumped to lows matching October 2019 lows.

All indices are struggling below 200 DMA , DOW being the-worst which is way way below 200 DMA....looking worst among all indices.....

Nasdaq and SOX are above 200 DMA....which is comforting...so far....

Corona Virus news is getting more and more attention with death & infections on the rise.....

Over 105,000 infected and close to 4,000 death......worldwide......

China Korea Iran Italy are the hotbed of increasing number of death.

It is NOT the absolute numbers worldwide, but it is the enormity, almost 100 countries infected globally which IS causing major alarm bell...

When psychology of fear and unknown takes over, then rationale analysis do not hold water.....

Market IS stuck in ' fear of unknown "

That kind of " hysteria " can take these indices below recent lows.....

On the other side, we got a friend in Central Banks / Reserve Banks worldwide all cutting interest rates aggressively and willing to go to ZERO  or even NEGATIVE IF need be......

Never fight the fed mantra may neutralize some fear of unknown.....

Based on all of the above, It IS NOT about RSI or oversold conditions which we do have, but it is all about " news flow "

Russell 2000 has 29.90 RSI on the low side and SOX has 39.82 on the high side...I never thought I will define high & Low RSI with these numbers.....

Most of us are spectators in this fast moving news flow which directly affects stock price movements.....on a minute by minute basis.....

SO...keep your high comfort stocks with patience and WAIT for news flow to go in the background, then only normal TAPE will return.

Good luck with your own analysis and comfort level

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, March 6, 2020

Indices closed down .98% to 1.87%.....

Indices closed down but near high of the day, continued concern about Corona Virus and its growing infection put downward pressure. Better than expected jobs report in USA & Canada was ignored from the prism of Virus impact in future.

S&P 500 @ 2972.37, low 2901.54, high 2985.93

RSI @ 35.62

CMF @ 0.064

Internals were :

Down volume led by 5.20 to 1 in NYSE & 2.12 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 4.41 to 1 in NYSE & 3.77 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 826 in NYSE & 560 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 5.86% @ 41.94...high today 54.39..brand new 52 wk high...

Oil @ $41.28....low low multi year...41.05 new low today.....

Gold @ $1672.40..high today $1692.80....almost touching multiyear high of $1700.00

Canadian $ @ .6572...near 52 wk low....

Stocks which closed green included MOMO AMD
BYND MCD NEM UAL EXPE FFIV TRIP CNX...

Here is my portfolio weighting :

LSCC        27.86%

SQ            20.80%

HUYA      15.57%

IQ           13.76%

LK          13.49%

SPWR     8.52%

Next post by 6 PM on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, March 5, 2020

Indices closed down 3.10% to 3.58%......

Indices closed down

S&P 500 @ 3023.94, low 2999.83, high 3083.04

RSI @ 38.14

CMF @ 0.041

Internals were :

Down volume led by 9.91 to 1 in NYSE & 2.41 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 5.90 to 1 in NYSE & 4.76 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 367 in NYSE & 315 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 23.85% @ 39.62

Oil @ $45.90

Gold @ $1668.00

Canadian $ @ .6597

Portfolio HUYA IQ LSCC LK SQ SPWR

Stocks which closed green by 1% or more included LK SPWR
RUN MRVL CIEN JKS TWLO NEM AEM FEYE YY 
CLVS TRIL SNAP....

AH news...SAIL UP 11.34%, OKTA UP 6.16%

                  AMD UP 6.03%, CY Down 11.31%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil Down

AH Gold UP

About market, TAPE staged another pullback due to growing infection in USA. Once we get an handle on infected numbers which is not expected to be large, fear of unknown will subside. Market reaction is pretty much correct as we still do not know the impact / severity of economic slowdown. Until then keep buying what you know and feel comfortable holding it.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Indices closed UP 3.85% to 4.53%....NICE!!!!

Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 3130.12, high 3130.97, low 3034.38

RSI @ 44.13

CMF @ 0.101

Internals were :

UP volume led by 5.48 to 1 in NYSE & 4.01 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 5.34 to 1 in NYSE & 3.64 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 67 in NYSE & 62 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 13.12% @ 31.99

Oil @ $46.78

Gold @ $1643.00

Canadian $ @ .6557

Portfolio HUYA IQ LSCC LK SQ SPWR

Stocks which were UP 6% or more included HUYA LSCC LK
LYFT RUN MRVL MU ASML AMD BYND NVDA SHOP
FEYE CRON CLVS TRIL......

AH news....MRVL UP 9.92%, DAKT UP 9.49%

                  ZM Down 7.09%, SPLK Down 3.47%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down

About market, TAPE proved critics of Fed's action totally wrong, it IS the psychology and confidence building matters more than economics 101. Those who were telling their huge audience only bullish thing to do is to buy gold, now looking @ hourly oscillators to justify their changed thesis. Stay the course, there is a very simple indicator to follow call it RSI or oversold or overbought conditions, most of us know to keep it simple.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Indices closed down 2.81% to 2.99%.....

Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 3003.37, low 2976.63, high 3136.72

RSI @ 32.36

CMF @ 0.057

Internals were :

Down volume led by 7.47 to 1 in NYSE & 3.28 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 3.58 to 1 in NYSE & 3.35 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 88 in NYSE & lows by 22 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 10.17% @ 36.82

Oil @ $47.18

Gold @ $1644.40

Canadian $ @ .6644

Portfolio HUYA IQ LSCC LK SQ SPWR

Stocks which closed green included   SPWR
RUN LYFT WB CIEN TSLA NEM AEM
UBER PHM KBH VICR CSIQ YY
CLVS .....

AH news...INO UP 20.13%, AMBA UP 7.64%

                  JWN Down 7.15%, HPE Down 5.8%

AH futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE was down then UP on Fed .5% cut in interest rates then closed down near lows of the day. Fed move is being criticized by lesser paycheck commentators as it is popular to do so. I believe Fed move was the right move and it will show in stock market UP move going forward. Exposure needs to be near optimum around these bargain basement level in just about any stock.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, March 2, 2020

Indices closed UP 4.49% to 5.09%...NICE !!!!

Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 3090.23, high 3090.95, low 2945.19

RSI @ 37.37

CMF @ 0.102

Internals were :

UP volume led by 3.66 to 1 in NYSE & 3.01 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 4.32 to 1 in NYSE & 2.69 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 172 in NYSE & 102 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 16.68% @ 33.42

Oil @ $46.75

Gold @ $1595.50

Canadian $ @ .6761

In my portfolio...Bought SPWR @ $8.58

Portfolio HUYA  IQ LSCC LK SQ SPWR

Stocks which were UP 3% or more included IQ LSCC
MRVL MU ASML AMD BYND TWTR LULU
CIEN AMRN TSM TLRY MCD MSFT TSLA
SHOP AMZN MTCH AAPL SPLK AMAT
CRUS GOOG NFLX YY GS MA MGA
MS MCD SWKS NKE IBM V X....

AH news....PS UP 9.5%, TLRY Down 11.73%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE opened flattish reflecting jitters before open which was down almost 300, after open we dipped into red then took off gradually and into overdrive by close. Tape closed @ high of the day. Internals were mostly positive. Oil strength is a strong indicator that all will be well going forward.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


Sunday, March 1, 2020

Market reaction to " corona virus "

Corona Virus played havoc with world stock market, everyone trying to understand as to why?????

A little perspective may calm few nerves.....

Market was extremely overbought and ignored Corona Virus in first two weeks and kept making new all time highs....

Corona virus casualties so far is low thousands and infection may be less than 100, 000 worldwide..so far....

Corona Virus is being blamed for market collapse and relentless selling...

I will allocate only 30% blame on Corona Virus which became a factor after being extremely overbought in the first place...

NO I am not undermining economic impact of Corona Virus which has taken world travel & congregation to new low point......

BUT IF we look @ some hard facts......

Death due to other ailments whose cure is still missing......like some cancer far outweighs current fatalities even on a daily basis worldwide.....

THUS...we need to take a "deep breath "

We must thank Chinese Government for taking such a "pro active " role in shutting down cities and completing a brand new hospital in 10 days in WUHAN...all to contain this virus.....

All affected / afflicted countries are all taking extremely pro-active actions to deal with Corona Virus....

All this coordinated actions must / will show results before it is too late....

SO....need to calm down and gather focus in going about daily lives....

Common sense approach like washing hands when in contact with any dirt / dust / dirty things needs to be done without exception....

Good hygiene cannot be over emphasized.....

NOW...back to market.....

SO MANY stocks are beaten down that it may not be a bad idea to keep adding as we build our confidence with this TAPE....

SOX made its turn UP on Friday.....

Gold made its U turn on Thursday with severe pounding on Friday....

VIX hanging on to its last breadth....southbound is the journey...

SO....relax and focus on TAPE and look for opportunity to make money.....

Good luck with your own analysis and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem