Are we ready for 3 day bounce in US stock market....

 This was the week when Fed Governors took every mike they could find and kept repeating " pain is to come "

Markets obliged by tanking on every news like rising yield, higher jobs data, higher Oil prices

So we are deeply oversold again......

Based on bearish pattern which IS nicely evolving, we got 1 day oversold bounce then 2 days oversold bounce.....this week could be 3 day oversold bounce ? ..pattern points yo this kind of trend.....

Based on my famous non-patented read on RSI......only XLE RSI of 61.40 is bullish...only 1 sector survived Fed speak.....

Remember how Solar was the-strongest sector few days ago...guess what? Solar / TAN is the-weakest @ 34.41 RSI in my universe.....

The above 2 sectors which flip flopped in opposite direction proves in bear markets " nothing is safe or strong.....based on this " repeat theory...XLE may be ripe for southbound action.....

NOW that we fully understand that it IS bear market until Fed pivots.....it is good to book profit IF we are so lucky instead of hoping against hope...or looking for homeruns 

IF you are well diversified and get some stocks participating in these sporadic bounce then book profit as they go away in next 72 hours....

Based on my universe we made new lows for 2022 in S&P 500, DOW, SOX & XLB ( Materials )

Nasdaq escaped new 2022 lows by hair which may happen IF we open lower on Monday.....

XLE is the only sector which is above 50 DMA & 200 DMA but far from making new highs.....this may be as good as it gets...

Bear market goes on, we must pursue some kind of survival strategy of selling @ any profit

Please rethink your portfolio based on reality of bear market.....

Good luck with your own take on market and your own comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down 2.11% to 3.80%...

 Indices closed down near low of the day as yield ticked up and job growth was slightly ahead of consensus. Internals were negative.

S&P 500 @ 3639.66, low 3620.73, high 3706.74

RSI @ 37.73

CMF @ -0.061

Internals were :

Down volume led by 9.69 to 1 in NYSE & 6.63 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 5.78 to 1 in NYSE & 4.51 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 526 in NYSE & 362 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 2.75% @ 31.36

Oil @ $92.64

Gold @ $1709.30

Canadian $ @ .6303

Stocks which closed green included

APA CNQ DKNG JWN SLB LNG

Here is my portfolio weighting :

ARKK         29.98%

MGM          20.51%

UAL           17.39%

LSPD        11.22%

PLTR          9.30%

SOFI          6.29%

SOL           4.18%

XPEV        1.13%

Next post by 6 PM on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .68% to 1.15%....

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 3744.52, low 3738.22, high 3782.83

RSI @ 43.64

CMF @ -0.007

Internals were :

Down volume led by 2.99 to 1 in NYSE & 1.95 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.32 to 1 in NYSE & 1.42 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 185 in NYSE & 125 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 6.90% @ 30.52

Oil @ $88.45

Gold @ $1720.80

Canadian $ @ .6264

Portfolio ARKK LSPD PLTR MGM SOL SOFI UAL XPEV

Stocks which closed green included ARKK LSPD PLTR

TPR APA SU SNAP NTR MOS HOOD PYPL AG

COIN BMBL RCL WYNN PAAS PINS SNOW

GOLD PENN NEM ZI ZM TOL DHI KBH

PHM CRWD ESTC UBER CVX OXY SLB 

LNG TWLO AEM NFLX LVS GOOS...

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down

About market, TAPE came under selling pressure due to hawkish Fed statement and tomorrows jobs report, It Is all about inflation coming down not jobs data meeting or missing expectations by bean counters. More & more Fed officials are very hawkish and they are getting vocal, so no pivot anytime soon.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .14% to .25%....

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 3783.28, low 3722.66, high 3806.91

RSI @ 46.11

CMF @ 0.069

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.73 to 1 in NYSE & 1.60 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.08 to 1 in NYSE & 1.70 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 140 in NYSE & 144 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 1.79% @ 28.55

Oil @ $87.76

Gold @ $1720.80

Canadian $ @ .6333

Portfolio ARKK LSPD PLTR MGM SOL SOFI UAL XPEV

Stocks which closed green included MGM UAL

TPR CNX APA SU TJX JWN M PYPL LULU

CRM BYD TSM WYNN LVS PENN QCOM

QRVO SNOW PANW GOOS ZI CRWD

JD CVX OXY SLB LNG EAT NKE

SPLK SNAP MU MA V ORCL SWKS ...

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE closed slightly lower as yield rose. Internals were negative. Many stocks took a well deserved rest after burning TAPE for 2 days. Solar & EV were hit hard as US pointed to child labor being used for batteries for Solar & EV in China.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP 2.80% to 3.34%...NICE !!!

 Indices closed UP

S&P 500 @ 3790.93, high 3794.92, low 3726.46

RSI @ 46.60

CMF @ 0.081

Internals were :

UP volume led by 21.14 to 1 in NYSE & 10.57 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 6.80 to 1 in NYSE & 3.70 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 75 in NYSE & 98 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 3.42% @ 29.07

Oil @ $86.52

Gold @ $1730.50

Canadian $ @ .6443

Portfolio ARKK LSPD PLTR MGM SOL SOFI UAL XPEV

Stocks which were UP 5% or more included 

ARKK LSPD MGM SOL SOFI UAL

NCLH SHOP SNAP RUN AFRM LULU

SQ COIN M X BYD JBLU DAL AAL BMBL

RCL WYNN CNQ MSTR DASH DKNG SNOW

LYFT PENN UBER EAT BA ASML BYND 

TWLO JWN LVS.....

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, TAPE continued its deeply oversold bounce for 2nd day with the help of lower yield and Australian Central Bank raising rates by only 25 basis which gave hope that Fed may be see the light from other major Central Banks actions of 3 in a row. Internals were strong and just about every stock participated in today's rally.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP 2.27% to 2.66%...NICE !!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 3678.43, high 3698.35, low 3604.93

RSI @ 37.65

CMF @ 0.018

Internals were :

UP volume led by 10.29 to 1 in NYSE & 4.12 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 5.04 to 1 in NYSE & 2.70 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 328 in NYSE & 327 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 4.81% @ 30.10

Oil @ $83.63

Gold @ $1702.00

Canadian $ @ .6344

Portfolio ARKK LSPD PLTR MGM SOL SOFI UAL XPEV

Stocks which were UP 3% or more included LSPD SOFI

TPR SHOP MRVL HST APA SU CNQ CVX SLB OXY

AMAT FSLR ENPH RUN AG PAAS CCJ TECK X 

AAPL BMBL QCOM QRVO SWKS FCX CLF

MSTR AMD MSFT PANW NXPI ZI TOL

DHI PHM KBH MTCH TER BA NVDA 

LRCX JWN MU RH ORCL OSTK....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE gave a much awaited deeply oversold bounce as 10 year yield slumped and UN made an appeal to all Central Banks of the world to stop raising rates. Internals were strong many sectors were UP. Oil went sharply higher on anticipation of OPEC+ output cut by 1 million barrels.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

US market in deep bearish mode.....

 We closed @ low of the day on Friday.

Deeply oversold bounce are lasting just for a day

We are heading much lower .....

How low is undetermined but 10% more lower is a safe bet

Bank of England & Bank of Japan are going against mighty Federal Reserve of USA but failed in changing bearish tide.

Based on current determination of Fed, unless they pivot, this bear market will continue.

IF you have to plan your investment dollars deployment then after 1st quarter of next year may the most opportune time

SO there is much more pain to endure and may be much more painful than Fed prediction.

SO...think hard and listen to your rational self...

YES....6 more months of same same which we have endured in 2021 & 2022

While we all want to be " lucky " and then call  " genius " but it will all taken back with next wave of intense selling...

Bear markets are never fun, because it takes good & bad stocks down with same intensity

SO do not feel bullish with oversold bounce, may be raise some cash or reduce exposure, because 6 months is a long time to wait & suffer with reduced equity.

Understanding of current bear market is more important than just being in market and hoping for the best outcome ......

Never heard in 5 decades that any Fed wanted to " inflict pain " but this Fed is hellbent on doing it....

Stay extremely watchful & defensive.....

Good luck with your own take on Fed & markets....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem