Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Indices UP 1.65% to 1.69% on positive data from Germany & China....NICE !!!!!

Germany & Chinese economic data is giving a huge lift to Indices all over the world.

2012 is off to a very good start.

Internals are positive by about 3 to 1.

New 52 wk highs are in the lead, with 204 in NYSE & 71 in Nasdaq

S&P 500 high so far is 1284.62, next resistance to take out is 1292.66, RSI 60.44

Oil UP $3.66

Gold UP $32.70

Canadian $ UP 79 tick @ 98.94

VIX Down 1.71% @ 23.00, muted reaction so far?????

In my portfolio :

Sold SNDK

Bought AMZN @ $177.22

Bought FIO @ $26.95

Portfolio is AMZN,FIO,LVS,M,RIMM,RVBD

Here is my current (real time) portfolio weighting :

AMZN 24.14%

RIMM 19.21%

LVS 19.02%

M 15.36%

RVBD 12.41%

FIO 9.86%

Market exposure 106%

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.15 following are RED :

SNDK,COH,VMW,BWLD,MA,ARUN,ULTA,
SBUX,BJRI......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, December 30, 2011

2011 is in history book.......

2011 just ended with the following statistics to ponder :

Dow UP 5.5%

S&P 500 unchanged

Nasdaq Down 1.8%

Gold UP 10%, UP 11 years in a row

Silver UP 9.8%

Crude Oil UP 8.2%

Copper Down 23%

EEM Down 20% ( Emerging Markets)

VIX UP 31.8% (Fear Index)

US$ Index UP 1.3%

It is NOT 2011, we have to worry now, its history.

We all had good, bad & ugly in our portfolio.

Now the question is about 2012, what will it be ?

Based on how we closed today, does not offer much hope.

We all are trying to convince our self that, this is low volume & does NOT give an accurate picture. From Tuesday on will be real deal.

I have a "strange feeling" that Tuesday onwards will be a continuation of where we left off today.

In case we have forgotten, we are @ the "top end" of our trading range, a journey towards 1200 can come very quickly.

S&P 500 closed below 200 DMA today......

CMF is negative in all indices & getting steeper.

S&P 500 & Dow is forming Head & Shoulder pattern in Daily, which is never a good sign.

The only bright spot is Dow, which is 12.28 points away from forming a "golden cross"

What i have done is lightened UP considerably today, reducing my exposure by 43% in two day's. I have booked profit in all three trades.

Sold CNQ, LULU

Sold 75% RIMM

Portfolio is LVS,M,RIMM,RVBD,SNDK.....

Here is my $ weighting as of tonight :

SNDK 27.72%

LVS 21.06%

RIMM 20.42%

M 17.22%

RVBD 13.58%

I am doing my individual read on the market, which may be totally incorrect. I still have 96.5% of my neutral mode exposure.When i am super bullish, i increase my exposure.

Please do your OWN analysis of this market & your OWN read of the stocks you OWN.

PS.....Next BLOG posting will be on Tuesday Jan 3rd, 2012 around 2 PM.

Have a Happy & prosperous 2012.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Indices closed UP .92% to 1.12%.....NICE !!!!

Indices closed near best level of the day.

S&P 500 closed @ 1263.02, which is above 50 & 200 DMA.

Nasdaq still below 50 DMA which is @ 2615.02, while Nasdaq closed @ 2613.74

Internals of the markets were :

UP volume led by 11.29 to 1 in NYSE & 5.76 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 3.73 to 1 in NYSE & 2.49 to 1 in Nasdaq

VIX closed down 3.66% @ 22.66

Oil closed UP @ $99.65

Gold closed Down @ $1540.90

Stocks which closed UP 1% or more included CNQ,RVBD,
AUY,COH,GG,SU,VMW,FFIV,SLW,VRM,MA,TSL,TLM,
MS,CIEN,FNSR,C,CRUS,ARUN,WYNN....

CMF is negative gain in all indices, S&P 500 is most negative @ 0.064.

Yesterday's TAPE was a major let down to my bullish thesis. Today's recovery in stock prices was muted @ best. Do not know what to make of last 48 hrs, but it has raised a big question mark in my mind as to the real health of current TAPE.

SO, Friday is the last day of the month, quarter & year, how it will end, i am not sure.

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold UP.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .74% to .92%.......NICE !!!!

Indices are UP on routine bond issuance by Italy, which was made a "big deal" yesterday, to sell fear & push markets down ?

10 yr bond fetched below 7%......

Internals are positive by minimum 2 to 1

Oil UP 35 cents

Gold Down $19.20

Canadian $ UP 28 tick @ 97.90

VIX down 2.81% @ 22.86

In my portfolio :

Sold APKT

Portfolio is CNQ,LVS,LULU,M,RIMM,RVBD,SNDK......

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.20 following are down :

APKT,LULU,M,AMZN,BIDU,NTES,LDK,SOL...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

European news was positive, but market tanked on euro & Italian 10yr auction ??

Today's TAPE was more than "freakish" or simply "manipulated" by those "who could".

Italy's auction today was "oversubscribed" & interest rate came in @ 3% vs expected 6%.....

European Banks made deposit of $452 billion Euros with ECB, ECB is now sitting with 2.73 trillion Euros...sign of good liquidity.....

BUT our HFT & know it all trashed the market on euro going below 1.30, not a news as it had dipped way below to 1.20 area in past life...but news is manufactured on Wall Street all the time ....

Indices went through many technical damage on no real news?

S&P 500 below 200 DMA

Nasdaq below 50 DMA

DOW is still above 50 & 200 DMA & is ready to make a "golden cross"...watch out ABOVE

CMF was barely negative in S&P 500, but its green in Dow & Nasdaq

NOW...we all have to panic for Italian auction tomorrow Worth 8.5 billion euros for 3, 7 & 10 yr auction....by the way 10 yr Italian bond was @ 7% today...below its high of 7.5%.....

US jobless claims should be good again, below 400K, that should offset European manipulation ?

@ close market was down 1.14% to 1.34%

Gold is breaking down big time, prediction is rampant for $1200 to $1250 per ounce?

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed, Shanghai UP slightly

AH Gold down another $8.20 @ $1555.90

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices down 1.04% to 1.14%......

Indices are down on the news of Euro being below 1.30 to 1.2949.

Europe seems to be the excuse today, although Italian Bond auction went very well @ lower interest rate.

Internals are negative by 4 to 1.

Gold Down $35.10

Oil Down $1.83

Canadian $ Down 45 tick @ 97.68

VIX UP 6.48% @ 23.33, still below critical 24+ area

In my portfolio :

Doubled SNDK @ $49.84

Portfolio is APKT,CNQ,LVS,LULU,M,RIMM,RVBD,SNDK.....

Here is my $ weighting about 30 mts ago :

RIMM 20.00%

LULU 16.19%

SNDK 15.76%

LVS 11.93%

CNQ 10.07%

M 9.96%

APKT 8.39%

RVBD 7.70%

Most stocks are down

@ 2.47 following are UP :

M,CMG,BIDU,GOOG,CRM,JCP,SOL,WWWW....

Just completed my 2011 Stock transactions, it was much better than 2010. Still ended with a loss of 3.8%.......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Indices closed mixed on tax loss selling.....

Today was the last day to book loss or gain for most traders, only mutual funds can play around with this deadline.

All indices did go to higher highs, but Dow closed slightly lower.

S&P 500 & Nasdaq closed green.

Internals of the market were mixed.

New 52 wk highs were in the lead with 200 in NYSE & 56 in Nasdaq

S&P 500 closed @ 1265.43, high today was 1269.37. RSI 58.95

This is the-most stability i have seen in S&P 500, maybe sign of good things to come.

VIX closed UP 5.69% @ 21.91

Oil closed UP @ $101.34

Gold closed Down @ $1595.50

Stocks which closed UP 1% or more included RIMM,LULU,LVS,
CMG,WYNN,VMW,MPEL,CRM,GOOG,BWLD,FNSR,WWWW.

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS...IF visitors to the BLOG can post their weighting of stocks of entire portfolio, that will help many who may consider evaluating for buying purposes. Even those traders who replace many stocks next day.No portfolio is good or bad, its the year end performance which matters.

Saleem