TAPE is @ major inflection point. To analyze we have to look @ the following to see what they are trying to say :
-S&P 500 @ 1692.09
-RSI @ 68.24
-Oil @ $108.05
-Gold @ $1292.90
-VIX @ 12.54
-Bulls @ 52.1%
-Bears @ 19.8%
-AAPL & AMZN earning
Each of the above are a catalyst for a major move......direction depends on where we are looking @......
I have color coded them to show where the direction could be......it is important to pay attention to RED & GREEN....
-Complacency is the-most dangerous stage in investing or trading......
-Earning season IS coming to an end, as expected Techs are showing weak result which will be reinforced until Q4.........
-Base Metals are in no position to make any notable move yet, could be 2014 story.
-AG are also in DEEP trouble with grain prices hitting low & inventory on the rise.
-Financial are the only group which IS improving with a tick UP in interest rates.
SO..it is time to reflect on what has been a great run in 2013 so far...BUT we have another FIVE+ plus months to go.......next 75 days may be challenging.....
It is wise to book gains ASAP.........
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteAlthough tech has been a damper this earnings season so far, the majority of cyclical companies continue to show improvement trends (financials/industrials). For many reasons, which I detailed in my writeup, I expect a slow grind higher here in the market with different industries taking the lead on any given day (that rotating bull market creep).
A quiet summer for a change would be nice!
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
ReplyDeleteNext 75 days usual catalyst are MIA....
YES.... even @ the lowest point in market history some stocks do go up......
Seasonality is in play now.....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteAs part of my effort to rebalance some, I sold BTU @ 16.461 and WLT @ 13.532. I think of the commodity stocks I own, these are the most vulnerable to a tough quarter.
BTU reports tomorrow morning and I may try to buy a dip if we get one. Otherwise, something like a financial might work for me.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
ReplyDeleteGood idea to rebalance & avoid any "potential pitfall"
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteI would definitely buy FCX if it pulls back after earnings tomorrow morning. They might get hit on Q2 due to the Grasberg closure, but that is already a fixed problem. Additionally, their purchase of oil exploration assets seems awfully smart right about now.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
ReplyDeleteFCX is above 50 DMA & looking strong.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
ReplyDeleteI see that--if it crashes into close on Q2 fears, I'll try to sneak in then. Otherwise, if it stays strong into the close, I have to hope for an initial weak reaction. Unfortunately, it may reverse higher by market open after the report. So tough to find entries on this market...
Stocktrader