US stock market entering another chaotic deadline of July 9th for unilateral tariff....
I am almost sure there may be many " spin for any or all change in deadline "
9th July may come & go BUT TV camera will be ON for " non news "
Tariff as " weapon " is in play.....
US stock market MAY IGNORE all the " non news about tariff "
This tariff game may NOT be over until end of the year....
SO be ready for an opportunistic trade as & when you see it.....
Stock market has a tendency to filter " non news " and do its own thing....
Pay attention to " how we close "
Here is my last week :
Last week UP 4.20%
YTD UP 26.66%
Here is my portfolio weighting on 65% exposure :
AAPL 26.63%
GOOG 25.67%
CRCL 21.50
MSFT 12.35%
NVDA 7.28%
SMCI 6.57%
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
13 comments:
Hi Salen,
Thank you for the Sunday's blog and congrats on another great week of profits.
Praying for your upcoming cardiologist appointment goes well and your health continues to improve.
Simon
Hi Simon,
Test including echocardiogram was completed on 4th of July,
Cardiologist will review on July 24th.
Thanks for your prayers and concern.
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Great week once again and hope the doctor's visit will yield good results and news!
Last week: +2.71% (YTD: -5.75%)
Portfolio Leaders: UPST FATN III SNAP
Portfolio Laggards: AVAV FEIM PONY
In another up week for the markets, the portfolio performed well also thanks to some select winners. At this point it feels like price and sentiment have gotten a bit stretched, so I wonder if July will be a basing month, but it's hard to imagine from where any true pullback will emanate. I am struggling to depart with any of my portfolio names right now as I expect more upside for all of them, but fresh picks and names are on my radar, so I may have to make some tough decisions based on estimated relative outperformance soon. Earnings season is soon upon us and I can't imagine any problems here as conference call tones and guidance should be better than what we saw last quarter. Maybe those final boosts in price will allow us the pullback to rest into August. I look forward to hearing from all the companies and how they expect to drive business forward in the next 6 months and beyond.
Holdings: UPST AVAV FEIM SNAP FATN RZLV CVCO RBRK III PONY SSYS OSIS, cash 0%
I looked very hard at selling AVAV when it was trading near its highs as I felt like the stock move reflected nearly all the of the short/medium term upside, and then the secondary offering was announced and the stock has since fallen 20%... opportunity missed.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your good wishes regarding my health, much appreciated, should know on 24th July how my Cardiologist interprets my numbers.....
Good luck with your investing thesis going forward....
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Sold PONY @ 12.34
Sold RZLV @ 2.64
Sold UPST @ 75.85
I'm reducing exposure in the stocks I feel have the biggest spotlights on them as I think we may experience a deeper pullback in the most hyped ones. My cash is 27% now.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with your next pick.. I also sold my biggest position of PONY for lost to raise cash.
Simon
Hi Simon,
More than just pulling back, it's not responding positively to positive news. It's been a worry of mine for a while and I've been trying to understand it, but this new thesis of mine just represents the opportunity to sell this underperformer.
Stocktrader
Yes sir! Thank you for your thesis :-)
Hi Stocktrader,
Good to raise cash by 27%...I am @ 35% cash....
Good luck going forward....
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Sold RBRK @ 90.33
Sold OSIS @ 231.25
I reduced exposure a little more by selling some ideas that have a shorter time frame thesis. RBRK, and all cybersecurity/cyber resilience companies face disruptions to their business model from AI and it remains to be seen which ones will survive ultimately. OSIS was more of a one-quarter situation for me where I just thought the report this time around would be good, but the lumpy nature of their business and the recent surge in border/port security focus would be a mostly one-time install situation.
Stocktrader
Hi Salem,l and Stocktrader,
Just sold MSFT, NVDA, RBRK, OSIS for more cash. Now I am at 50% cash available. Thank you both for the recommendations.
Simon
Hi Simon,
Good move in raising 50% cash and booking profit...
Saleem
Hi Simon,
Tons of cash now! Hopefully the opportunities do present themselves...
Stocktrader
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