Markets are going through a major base building @ current level....
S&P 500 gave a "heads UP" to other indices by closing green......
Today US market showed resiliency after worldwide sell off.....
There IS so much uncertainty about credit issues that markets are showing strength relatively speaking......by NOT tanking to January LOWS or going further LOWER......
In my portfolio :
Sold RIMM booked a loss $4 per share as I wanted to free up some funds to do some buying in more desirable stocks based on valuation.
Bought TKC @ $25.23
Added 36% more LDK @ $25.69.......my cost went down to $42......Still too high but coming down.....
I feel LDK has been subjected to a well coordinated short attack by PJ,GS & Barron's......the game was very clear today after GS reduced the price target of LDK to $28 only a $ higher than buddy PJ based on GS prediction of Q1 coming @ the low end of LDK range...reason LDK will have problem getting Polysilicon and their cost will be higher ......
GS is predicting that LDK polysilicon cost will be higher in 2008 & 2009...so increase solar wafer production will not be able to make up for the rising cost of polysilicon....thus reduction in profit margin.......
It is interesting that each analyst are "highlighting different issues against the company issued margin guidance"....LDK has issued guidance which is showing way above industry margins compared to FSLR,STP or any other solar company.......
As LDK is facing a coordinated attack on three front GS,PJ & Barron's...which IS proving that they have been shorting from $36 level which has been the resistance on any rally....so I guess todays downgrade is a last attempt by the trio to cover @ today's level by unsuspecting retail investors.......
In October inventory fiasco GS had a similar low target to manipulate the share price.....
LDK is presenting in MS conference on March 5th @ 4.30PM est......which IS only 25 days before the end of Q1.......I hope that on wed LDK will be able to address all the issues as played out by Barron's,PJ & GS by refuting every allegations & assertions.....
It will be nice if LDK can narrow down their guidance towards mid/upper range.......then you watch the short covering by the gang of three....Thursday AH LDK stock price should be a pleasure to watch......
I also expect MS to upgrade LDK before or after their presentation...as good presentation is anticipated by host.......I hope !!!!
CSIQ rating 90/100 rated for a "breakout" @ $19.85 for a target of $23.63
COIN rating 5/30 "breakout confirmed"....No resistance ahead......
GS rating 60/65 "breakdown confirmed" target $155.90 ...IF NOT then 1st target UP is $172.55..
LDK rating 40/70 "breakdown confirmed"target $18.96 ...IF NOT then 1st target UP is $28.35...
TKC rating 40/45 target $27.11
In other stocks:
AGU rating 20/30 target $74.13
FMCN rating 35/30 target $52.07
ISRG,FSLR,FMCN,ICE,NMX,WFR,AUY were UP......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Monday, March 3, 2008
Expecting markets to find support today !!!
Markets are in much stable ground than what Asian sell off would have triggered......
I am expecting S&P 500 to find support today..
So far 1322.08 is the low on S&P 500......technicians would like to see 1325 or higher by close...
I say we have a very good chance of achieving that......I hope !!!
Today there was many downgrades in techs....Internet was downgraded,AAPL earnings were trimmed & NVDA was given $22 target with a neutral rating...so it IS exerting some new selling ......
In my portfolio :
CSIQ trying to show green UP 22 cents..reports wed AH..expecting a beat and good guidance..this is among the few solar stocks that is looking half decent technically speaking.....
COIN UP 81 cents had a "breakout" @ $13.21 currently $13.63..target $15.79...doing very well in negative tape......
GS down $2.62
LDK is being pinned down by agenda driven hedgies,PJ,Barron's ...is down $2.26 on 2 million shares..heavy for 2 hours......I still expect improvement in LDK as it IS holding $26 so far...which is the most recent support area.....so far market is dictating LDK tape...so IF market improves LDK wants to improve also !!!!
RIMM down $2.66 in Toronto.....
@ 11.29 AM the following are green in my watch list :
TKC,TSL,DELL,CTRN,ICE,YHOO,IGT,TSO,NMX,AUY(new high),
VLO,ABX,SPWR,FSLR,FWLT,MA,EZA,FMCN,WFR,JASO.
Good luck on close.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
I am expecting S&P 500 to find support today..
So far 1322.08 is the low on S&P 500......technicians would like to see 1325 or higher by close...
I say we have a very good chance of achieving that......I hope !!!
Today there was many downgrades in techs....Internet was downgraded,AAPL earnings were trimmed & NVDA was given $22 target with a neutral rating...so it IS exerting some new selling ......
In my portfolio :
CSIQ trying to show green UP 22 cents..reports wed AH..expecting a beat and good guidance..this is among the few solar stocks that is looking half decent technically speaking.....
COIN UP 81 cents had a "breakout" @ $13.21 currently $13.63..target $15.79...doing very well in negative tape......
GS down $2.62
LDK is being pinned down by agenda driven hedgies,PJ,Barron's ...is down $2.26 on 2 million shares..heavy for 2 hours......I still expect improvement in LDK as it IS holding $26 so far...which is the most recent support area.....so far market is dictating LDK tape...so IF market improves LDK wants to improve also !!!!
RIMM down $2.66 in Toronto.....
@ 11.29 AM the following are green in my watch list :
TKC,TSL,DELL,CTRN,ICE,YHOO,IGT,TSO,NMX,AUY(new high),
VLO,ABX,SPWR,FSLR,FWLT,MA,EZA,FMCN,WFR,JASO.
Good luck on close.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Futures giving message of "support" for markets !!!
Future are giving lot of confidence to bulls that support for this market is @ hand......
Friday was predictable as black cat day as it was month end........
Volume was very light on Friday ????
Friday was more of hedgies day playing with market and scaring "many"in the process.....
Even in bear market tape there IS support & resistance......get used to it !!!
We are definitely in "support zone NOW"
As I have repeatedly said buy strong stocks on sale...near support & book profit near resistance..
We ARE seeing a sloping higher market...which may NOT be obvious to many but with coming move...market will make another higher high and also higher low in next run.....I hope !!!
Oh.....about LDK even with a helping hand from Barron's it is down in the 50 cents area...as I noted in my reply to a comment..LDK IS IN strong retail hands....they are NOT sellers anymore...
I am also seeing buy ratio on LDK even in 6k volume......Bill Alpert has to try to come up with some NEW & IMPROVED dirt to make any impact...He is digging the same old crap from last October....he must believe that retail are retards to pay attention to his agenda......
As I also said yesterday...I am expecting a very green close for LDK today.....how is that Mr Alpert.....Because it just doesn't FIT !!!!!
Good luck on a much calmer day today !!!!!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Friday was predictable as black cat day as it was month end........
Volume was very light on Friday ????
Friday was more of hedgies day playing with market and scaring "many"in the process.....
Even in bear market tape there IS support & resistance......get used to it !!!
We are definitely in "support zone NOW"
As I have repeatedly said buy strong stocks on sale...near support & book profit near resistance..
We ARE seeing a sloping higher market...which may NOT be obvious to many but with coming move...market will make another higher high and also higher low in next run.....I hope !!!
Oh.....about LDK even with a helping hand from Barron's it is down in the 50 cents area...as I noted in my reply to a comment..LDK IS IN strong retail hands....they are NOT sellers anymore...
I am also seeing buy ratio on LDK even in 6k volume......Bill Alpert has to try to come up with some NEW & IMPROVED dirt to make any impact...He is digging the same old crap from last October....he must believe that retail are retards to pay attention to his agenda......
As I also said yesterday...I am expecting a very green close for LDK today.....how is that Mr Alpert.....Because it just doesn't FIT !!!!!
Good luck on a much calmer day today !!!!!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Barron's bashing LDK again ???
Barron's is bashing LDK again on the same issue of "inventory"
This will be another in a series of bashing by Barron's on so called inventory issue.....
If I can recall accurately as I do NOT subscribe to Barron's...this IS the 6Th time in last 90 days or so that Barron's is being persistent about the same "allegation"
It is interesting to see that how much time & energy is being spent by Barron's on one issue of allegations by a former employee......
LDK took the right step of doing their own audit immediately & then asked outside auditors to do independent audit of inventory...which cleared LDK of any inventory issue.......
So what is the issue now........
Short side analyst zeroed in on inventory numbers in CC on 25Th Feb......
PJ & Lazard kept asking about inventory ......to my surprise !!!!
Then they both issued negative comments on 26Th about LDK to bring the stock down...obviously they have been short and wanted the stock to go LOWER......
PJ & Lazard cited "issues which LDK is facing"...no issues were identified......
PJ went to sell with $27 price target.........
Lazard went to neutral..with "vague remarks about Solar industry challenges"
But the stock was trying to stabilize around $29 even in a bad tape of Feb 28.......
So now PJ & Lazard....are getting another helping hand from Barron's with an article by Bill Alpert questioning one line from LDK earning release........
LDK has broken down inventory in many stages of production.....
In process......
@ hand....
Inventory to be used in over 12 months......
Over 12 months total of $30 million (corrected) is the latest issue being raised by Barron's...implying that it IS "unusable"...I did not know that Barron's are in metallurgical business also...How does Barron's KNOW that certain inventory IS NOT usable.......which has been CLEARLY line item by LDK....
Barron's is also implying that they have to take a write down of this $30 million inventory....which in turn will eliminate 66% (corrected)of last Q earnings......so a 29 cents(corrected) per share write down.......
Barron's has single minded focused on LDK for months now.....which is a sign of an agenda which IS driven by a collaborative motive.......
LDK business is to buy scrap poly silicon & scrap wafers and they mix it up with virgin poly silicon to make wafers...an extremely cost effective way to produce wafers for PV cells.......
So...LDK maintains inventories with various grades of purity which IS mixed in production based on their schedule......
LDK based on their contracts with a timeline...are avoiding some production which may take longer process....& keeping those inventory aside.....which IS where this inventory beyond 12 month comes.........
So even if we take a worse case scenario & assume that LDK @ some point MAY have to write off part or all of $30 million in inventory then there MAY be a charge of 29 cents or less.......
So.....let us adjust the consensus earning estimates by 29 cents for 08 and see where the PE ratio will fall & compare to analyst favourite solar stocks......who have 100% perfect accounting.....if there IS such a thing ????
FSLR.......................................PE 81.73
SPWR......................................PE 41.86
STP........................................PE 19.88
LDK..............$1.80 becomes $1.51 PE 18.92(corrected)
CSIQ.......................................PE 12.80
I am sure that this whole issue of $30 million in next year inventory will be all used UP as part of their production plans.....unless Barron's wants to dictate their production schedule also.....as per their AGENDA.......
So...we will have an upside surprise when LDK reports and "inventory in question is GONE one way or another......
In case anyone is wondering what IS the consensus estimate of LDK for 2009........
$3.62 by 5 analyst
Current LDK stock price $28.58
PE based on 09 consensus est 7.90......
Tell me which solar stock IS trading @ 7.9 PE ????
Please do your OWN due diligence as I currently OWN LDK for my portfolio.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
This will be another in a series of bashing by Barron's on so called inventory issue.....
If I can recall accurately as I do NOT subscribe to Barron's...this IS the 6Th time in last 90 days or so that Barron's is being persistent about the same "allegation"
It is interesting to see that how much time & energy is being spent by Barron's on one issue of allegations by a former employee......
LDK took the right step of doing their own audit immediately & then asked outside auditors to do independent audit of inventory...which cleared LDK of any inventory issue.......
So what is the issue now........
Short side analyst zeroed in on inventory numbers in CC on 25Th Feb......
PJ & Lazard kept asking about inventory ......to my surprise !!!!
Then they both issued negative comments on 26Th about LDK to bring the stock down...obviously they have been short and wanted the stock to go LOWER......
PJ & Lazard cited "issues which LDK is facing"...no issues were identified......
PJ went to sell with $27 price target.........
Lazard went to neutral..with "vague remarks about Solar industry challenges"
But the stock was trying to stabilize around $29 even in a bad tape of Feb 28.......
So now PJ & Lazard....are getting another helping hand from Barron's with an article by Bill Alpert questioning one line from LDK earning release........
LDK has broken down inventory in many stages of production.....
In process......
@ hand....
Inventory to be used in over 12 months......
Over 12 months total of $30 million (corrected) is the latest issue being raised by Barron's...implying that it IS "unusable"...I did not know that Barron's are in metallurgical business also...How does Barron's KNOW that certain inventory IS NOT usable.......which has been CLEARLY line item by LDK....
Barron's is also implying that they have to take a write down of this $30 million inventory....which in turn will eliminate 66% (corrected)of last Q earnings......so a 29 cents(corrected) per share write down.......
Barron's has single minded focused on LDK for months now.....which is a sign of an agenda which IS driven by a collaborative motive.......
LDK business is to buy scrap poly silicon & scrap wafers and they mix it up with virgin poly silicon to make wafers...an extremely cost effective way to produce wafers for PV cells.......
So...LDK maintains inventories with various grades of purity which IS mixed in production based on their schedule......
LDK based on their contracts with a timeline...are avoiding some production which may take longer process....& keeping those inventory aside.....which IS where this inventory beyond 12 month comes.........
So even if we take a worse case scenario & assume that LDK @ some point MAY have to write off part or all of $30 million in inventory then there MAY be a charge of 29 cents or less.......
So.....let us adjust the consensus earning estimates by 29 cents for 08 and see where the PE ratio will fall & compare to analyst favourite solar stocks......who have 100% perfect accounting.....if there IS such a thing ????
FSLR.......................................PE 81.73
SPWR......................................PE 41.86
STP........................................PE 19.88
LDK..............$1.80 becomes $1.51 PE 18.92(corrected)
CSIQ.......................................PE 12.80
I am sure that this whole issue of $30 million in next year inventory will be all used UP as part of their production plans.....unless Barron's wants to dictate their production schedule also.....as per their AGENDA.......
So...we will have an upside surprise when LDK reports and "inventory in question is GONE one way or another......
In case anyone is wondering what IS the consensus estimate of LDK for 2009........
$3.62 by 5 analyst
Current LDK stock price $28.58
PE based on 09 consensus est 7.90......
Tell me which solar stock IS trading @ 7.9 PE ????
Please do your OWN due diligence as I currently OWN LDK for my portfolio.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Saturday, March 1, 2008
BUY signal stocks for "RETEST of support "
The following stocks are giving BUY signal.Please do your own due diligence .Always use stop to limit loss.
ACLS,AKAM,ESEA,GILD,MGLN,PRAI,SMBI,XTEX,AGO,
FCN,FIX,GPS,INT,MGG,MTZ,RLH,CSU.
Next post 10AM sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
ACLS,AKAM,ESEA,GILD,MGLN,PRAI,SMBI,XTEX,AGO,
FCN,FIX,GPS,INT,MGG,MTZ,RLH,CSU.
Next post 10AM sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Technically STRONG stocks for "RETEST of support "
The following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.Please use stop to limit loss.
OVTI,TAP,CRM,LEAP,ABX,CEDC,PSA,SSTI,ACF,ABB,ECA,
WMT,MTU,LRCX,RMBS,PGR,MXWL.SAFM,HLX.
TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)
MGA,TCK.B,MDI,ARU,POU,RBI,T.A,ANV.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
OVTI,TAP,CRM,LEAP,ABX,CEDC,PSA,SSTI,ACF,ABB,ECA,
WMT,MTU,LRCX,RMBS,PGR,MXWL.SAFM,HLX.
TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)
MGA,TCK.B,MDI,ARU,POU,RBI,T.A,ANV.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Technically WEAK stocks for "RETEST of support "
Following stocks are showing weakness based on various technical formations.Please use stop always.
NCC,DHI,CTX,CNET,OMX,ROST,ASML,WLP,MVL,MGM,
AMZN,AGN,CTV,CMS,ESRX,ACOR,PFCB,IRM,STT,CFIG,
PRGO,SUNH.
TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)
BNS,TD,SVM,BMO,RBA,SXC,TOC,WFT.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
NCC,DHI,CTX,CNET,OMX,ROST,ASML,WLP,MVL,MGM,
AMZN,AGN,CTV,CMS,ESRX,ACOR,PFCB,IRM,STT,CFIG,
PRGO,SUNH.
TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)
BNS,TD,SVM,BMO,RBA,SXC,TOC,WFT.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
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