Today we had all the ingredient for markets to stage a "major rally"......
BUT.....
Rally failed by close????
Today 52 week lows set a new record ...on NYSE had 1842 & NASDAQ had 1161.....
Even though we hit new lows ....We have all the ingredient in-place for a major UP move......
Markets have discounted "severe recession".....
Lot of selling were initiated on the fear of new rules after shorting of financials have expired tonight......
Based on CNBC shorting will be allowed starting Thursday.....
SEC should insist & monitor borrowing of stocks before shorting...thus no issue of Failure To Deliver shares.....
IBM pre-announced better ER....as its stock was also trashed to new 52 week low on rumour of a miss....IBM lost $40 per share from its high...AH UP $4.50 @ bid......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
972.98 is the new low for S&P 500..another 2.33% slump...
Markets are trying to pick up the pieces from series of new daily lows .....
YES...It IS painful near/@ bottom ALWAYS.....
BUT...once we find "the-bottom"...it will be a QUICK melt UP......
I am much more comfortable with Fed & worldwide coordination......It WILL change the current psychology of fear & hopelessness.....very soon....
It is important to be COMFORTABLE with your holdings with your OWN fundamental analysis which MAY be changing rapidly....technicals do NOT matter near LOWS.....
In my portfolio :
PHM UP 21 cents
RIMM UP $2.50
SOL UP 14 cents
@ 11.55 AM the following are green in my watch list:
POT,AAPL,CMED,WFR,GG,SLV,NDAQ,WYNN,BIDU,
KGC,ABX,ISRG,HOD.TO,DUG,LDK,HPQ,SDS,DXD,MON.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
YES...It IS painful near/@ bottom ALWAYS.....
BUT...once we find "the-bottom"...it will be a QUICK melt UP......
I am much more comfortable with Fed & worldwide coordination......It WILL change the current psychology of fear & hopelessness.....very soon....
It is important to be COMFORTABLE with your holdings with your OWN fundamental analysis which MAY be changing rapidly....technicals do NOT matter near LOWS.....
In my portfolio :
PHM UP 21 cents
RIMM UP $2.50
SOL UP 14 cents
@ 11.55 AM the following are green in my watch list:
POT,AAPL,CMED,WFR,GG,SLV,NDAQ,WYNN,BIDU,
KGC,ABX,ISRG,HOD.TO,DUG,LDK,HPQ,SDS,DXD,MON.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
S&P 500 undercuts old low by 11.74 points or 1.16% ....
Markets are showing "no confidence in any action/policy of Fed & Treasury"
Confidence is lacking...while Fed & Treasury keep coming up with new ideas to help the economy...
Stock markets are being sold off relentlessly due to fear & other issues......
Today Financials got creamed due to rumour about BAC & MS.....both got resolved after close...
England is also going to have its own rescue package tonight......
New 52 week low on NYSE is 995 on NASDAQ 641......
Futures are down AGAIN......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Confidence is lacking...while Fed & Treasury keep coming up with new ideas to help the economy...
Stock markets are being sold off relentlessly due to fear & other issues......
Today Financials got creamed due to rumour about BAC & MS.....both got resolved after close...
England is also going to have its own rescue package tonight......
New 52 week low on NYSE is 995 on NASDAQ 641......
Futures are down AGAIN......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets into base building mode...before major UP move !!!
Markets are building base around 10,000......
This will get all naysayers out..to absorb last sellers.....
Markets will get buyers gradually...once it gives the feel of being STABLE......
Close today CAN be meaningful if we get major BUYING.......
Fed has been doing everything to support this fragile economy & in the end they WILL succeed...
In my portfolio :
PHM Down 51 cents
RIMM UP 21 cents
SOL Down 21 cents
@ 11.45 AM the following are green in my watch list :
TRLG,VMW,CMED(new acquisition),GG,SLV,POT,
ICE,JRCC,SOHU,AUY,ABX,VAR,IPI,AGU,AMD.
GS decided to downgrade FSLR with a conviction Sell,SPWRA got a Sell also....based on future reduction of subsidies in Germany & Spain.....US solar tax credit was NOT mentioned as a huge positive?
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
This will get all naysayers out..to absorb last sellers.....
Markets will get buyers gradually...once it gives the feel of being STABLE......
Close today CAN be meaningful if we get major BUYING.......
Fed has been doing everything to support this fragile economy & in the end they WILL succeed...
In my portfolio :
PHM Down 51 cents
RIMM UP 21 cents
SOL Down 21 cents
@ 11.45 AM the following are green in my watch list :
TRLG,VMW,CMED(new acquisition),GG,SLV,POT,
ICE,JRCC,SOHU,AUY,ABX,VAR,IPI,AGU,AMD.
GS decided to downgrade FSLR with a conviction Sell,SPWRA got a Sell also....based on future reduction of subsidies in Germany & Spain.....US solar tax credit was NOT mentioned as a huge positive?
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Monday, October 6, 2008
S&P 500 moved UP 48.92 points from Low of the day...NICE !!!
What a day in markets ......Dow down 806 points.......
VIX hit 11 year high of 58.24......
Some stat to keep in mind after each crash......
1987 crash......after 1 year market was UP 22.90%...after 2 years market was UP 54.30%
1990 Persian Gulf war...after 1 year market was UP 23.60%..after 2 years UP 31.30%
2003 invasion of Iraq...after 1 year market was UP 29.60%...after 2 years UP 31.40%
There are lot of fast talking pundits who would like you to believe that Stock market will keep going Down to 6,000 or any number in-between......These pundits are either SHORT....OR are out of market completely....thus expressing a thoughtless number based on NO TA or FA......
Markets turns around and move UP sharply when no one is expecting.......
Biggest move in markets are in the very first few weeks...when most of the OPINION junkies are OUT of the market......
So do your OWN historical analysis based on TA......
When thousands of stocks are making new LOWS daily on NYSE & NASDAQ...then CAPITULATION has happened based on history.....Today 1629 new lows on NYSE & 1097 new lows on NASDAQ....
BUT.....your OWN due diligence & comfort level is very important.......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
VIX hit 11 year high of 58.24......
Some stat to keep in mind after each crash......
1987 crash......after 1 year market was UP 22.90%...after 2 years market was UP 54.30%
1990 Persian Gulf war...after 1 year market was UP 23.60%..after 2 years UP 31.30%
2003 invasion of Iraq...after 1 year market was UP 29.60%...after 2 years UP 31.40%
There are lot of fast talking pundits who would like you to believe that Stock market will keep going Down to 6,000 or any number in-between......These pundits are either SHORT....OR are out of market completely....thus expressing a thoughtless number based on NO TA or FA......
Markets turns around and move UP sharply when no one is expecting.......
Biggest move in markets are in the very first few weeks...when most of the OPINION junkies are OUT of the market......
So do your OWN historical analysis based on TA......
When thousands of stocks are making new LOWS daily on NYSE & NASDAQ...then CAPITULATION has happened based on history.....Today 1629 new lows on NYSE & 1097 new lows on NASDAQ....
BUT.....your OWN due diligence & comfort level is very important.......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Was 1027.18 on S&P 500 low of bear market????
S&P 500 low was 1027.18 today.......
Everyone wants to know if this IS the-LOW of bear market......???
VIX shot UP to 56.29....a nine year HIGH???
FEAR is @ extreme........
Bargains are @ extreme also......
Risk/reward ratio is very good......
In my portfolio :
Sold BRCM & JNPR.......
Bought more RIMM ....cost went down to $59.90
Bought more SOL.... cost went down to $13.19
Portfolio is PHM,RIMM & SOL......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Everyone wants to know if this IS the-LOW of bear market......???
VIX shot UP to 56.29....a nine year HIGH???
FEAR is @ extreme........
Bargains are @ extreme also......
Risk/reward ratio is very good......
In my portfolio :
Sold BRCM & JNPR.......
Bought more RIMM ....cost went down to $59.90
Bought more SOL.... cost went down to $13.19
Portfolio is PHM,RIMM & SOL......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Sunday, October 5, 2008
So..how bad IS the CARNAGE in markets......BAD !!!
Markets statistics are horrible......
DOW down 3,548 points......Down 24.8%
NASDAQ down 914 points..Down 31.95%
S&P 500 down 477 points..Down 30.33%
Based on history an average bear market is Down 29%.....definition of bear triggers @ 20% drop from the high.......
So ....based on historical average...we already are doing worse in NASDAQ & S&P 500...which are down record 31.95% & 30.33%.........Dow is 4% below historical norm.......
So......let us examine what caused this carnage.......
It was the financial system which abused the trust of investing climate......they were selling INFLATED papers as assets.... which was rated AAA by rating agencies......which was sold worldwide.......
So..when those asset backed securities started to come UNGLUED when real estate collapsed in US...there was NO buyer of this worthless paper........thus severely affecting banking/regulatory ratios to lend......in the process cash needed to be raised by everyone in trillions.....
To make a long & painful story of greed & exploitations...short.......Fed & worldwide Treasury officials are busy shoring UP liquidity in their banking system.......
Treasury in US will start buying these seized/frozen papers @ fair value to give much needed cash to the banks & other financial institutions...which WILL enhance their LENDING ratios and credit will FLOW better.....
September will be known as when credit availability in US FROZE.......
October will be known as when credit was EASED up.......
So...what about markets????
As usual markets overshoots on the DOWNSIDE...which was witnessed on Friday...when real solution to help the economy was sold off????
So.... who was RIGHT in predicting this carnage on wall street......
Louise Yamada accurately predicted Dow of 10,000 area which she said will HOLD.......
Carter Worth was accurate until 1,200 on S&P 500.....then predicted NO NEW LOWS......
IBD was also WRONG when they also WARMED UP around 1200 area on S&P 500 & several times earlier....
I was WRONG in my entire thesis that as long as one is NOT in financials ..things should be more than OK.....it was NOT......
Markets USUALLY looks ahead to FUTURE and starts moving UP after DISCOUNTING bad news scenarios......I think markets have discounted more than enough....
I personally LIKE to believe that we ARE @ such a JUNCTURE....where markets will SURPRISE on the UPSIDE........
Next 12 months will be much better than last 14 months.......
It is important to be positioned for an UPSIDE tape.......Being EARLY MAY not be such a bad idea...
Ensure your own COMFORT LEVEL & do your OWN due diligence when trading/investing.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
DOW down 3,548 points......Down 24.8%
NASDAQ down 914 points..Down 31.95%
S&P 500 down 477 points..Down 30.33%
Based on history an average bear market is Down 29%.....definition of bear triggers @ 20% drop from the high.......
So ....based on historical average...we already are doing worse in NASDAQ & S&P 500...which are down record 31.95% & 30.33%.........Dow is 4% below historical norm.......
So......let us examine what caused this carnage.......
It was the financial system which abused the trust of investing climate......they were selling INFLATED papers as assets.... which was rated AAA by rating agencies......which was sold worldwide.......
So..when those asset backed securities started to come UNGLUED when real estate collapsed in US...there was NO buyer of this worthless paper........thus severely affecting banking/regulatory ratios to lend......in the process cash needed to be raised by everyone in trillions.....
To make a long & painful story of greed & exploitations...short.......Fed & worldwide Treasury officials are busy shoring UP liquidity in their banking system.......
Treasury in US will start buying these seized/frozen papers @ fair value to give much needed cash to the banks & other financial institutions...which WILL enhance their LENDING ratios and credit will FLOW better.....
September will be known as when credit availability in US FROZE.......
October will be known as when credit was EASED up.......
So...what about markets????
As usual markets overshoots on the DOWNSIDE...which was witnessed on Friday...when real solution to help the economy was sold off????
So.... who was RIGHT in predicting this carnage on wall street......
Louise Yamada accurately predicted Dow of 10,000 area which she said will HOLD.......
Carter Worth was accurate until 1,200 on S&P 500.....then predicted NO NEW LOWS......
IBD was also WRONG when they also WARMED UP around 1200 area on S&P 500 & several times earlier....
I was WRONG in my entire thesis that as long as one is NOT in financials ..things should be more than OK.....it was NOT......
Markets USUALLY looks ahead to FUTURE and starts moving UP after DISCOUNTING bad news scenarios......I think markets have discounted more than enough....
I personally LIKE to believe that we ARE @ such a JUNCTURE....where markets will SURPRISE on the UPSIDE........
Next 12 months will be much better than last 14 months.......
It is important to be positioned for an UPSIDE tape.......Being EARLY MAY not be such a bad idea...
Ensure your own COMFORT LEVEL & do your OWN due diligence when trading/investing.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
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