Indices are taking a pause from enthusiastic buying of last week.
S&P 500 @ 1457.48
Internals are mostly negative.
Oil UP 6 cents
Gold Down $3.00
Canadian $ UP 7 tick @ 101.42
VIX UP 3.04% @ 14.25
In my portfolio :
Bought CF @ $207.12
Portfolio is CF,KORS,JCP,TCK,YUM...
76% exposure
Most stocks are down
@ 1.40 following are green :
TCK,AMZN,PCLN,FB,SCCO,LEN,
DNKN,COH,CLF,MA,V,CRUS,MU,
JDSU,QCOM,MCD,STLD,CCJ,QIHU....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Monday, January 7, 2013
Sunday, January 6, 2013
Almost 13 years ago, S&P 500 was @ 1552.87.....
On March 24th, 2000 S&P 500 hit an intraday high of 1552.87.....it is almost 13 years later we are @ 1466.47.
What does it say about stock market which keeps going back in time.......
There is a distinct message in this, Stock market is a trading tool NOT an investment for long term.
Based on last 13 years, It is definitely not a "buy & hold"
There are forces like Quants & Hedge Funds who do not believe in an ascending market. They are controlling price direction by their supercomputers.
Why am i highlighting this ?
Because we are @ another crossroad in terms of conquering numbers which are 13 years old......there will be hoopla & celebration about making new highs in S&P 500....BUT party may soon end.......thus a cautionary approach to any milestone......
YES...S&P may be @ new highs...but it may be time to prune your position.......I will highly recommend 50% less exposure when "euphoria" starts.......
I expect volatility to increase when we get near or above 1552 area.....
Just to give you some perspective, on the day S&P 500 hit 1552.87 on March 24th, 2000......the low on that day was 1516.83....a range of 2.4% for the day......
Also on the week of march 20th, 2000...low was 1446.06 & high was 1552.87...a weekly swing of 106.81 points or 7.39% in a week........
Character of this market has changed when trading went 100% electronic....supercomputers have formulas to work with & do reverse in nano-second........
Now back to our trading model.......
RSI is @ 64.45...i do not see it going above 75 on a closing basis......
I will be selling majority of my position near 75.......which could come as soon as this Friday......
S&P 500 is @ 1466.47, near tern target maybe 1525 area........
I know what i am highlighting is not a popular focus, but reality may be close to my thesis.
Strongly suggest going for singles than attempting homerun & in the process singles fizzles away......
Good luck with your own trading thesis.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
What does it say about stock market which keeps going back in time.......
There is a distinct message in this, Stock market is a trading tool NOT an investment for long term.
Based on last 13 years, It is definitely not a "buy & hold"
There are forces like Quants & Hedge Funds who do not believe in an ascending market. They are controlling price direction by their supercomputers.
Why am i highlighting this ?
Because we are @ another crossroad in terms of conquering numbers which are 13 years old......there will be hoopla & celebration about making new highs in S&P 500....BUT party may soon end.......thus a cautionary approach to any milestone......
YES...S&P may be @ new highs...but it may be time to prune your position.......I will highly recommend 50% less exposure when "euphoria" starts.......
I expect volatility to increase when we get near or above 1552 area.....
Just to give you some perspective, on the day S&P 500 hit 1552.87 on March 24th, 2000......the low on that day was 1516.83....a range of 2.4% for the day......
Also on the week of march 20th, 2000...low was 1446.06 & high was 1552.87...a weekly swing of 106.81 points or 7.39% in a week........
Character of this market has changed when trading went 100% electronic....supercomputers have formulas to work with & do reverse in nano-second........
Now back to our trading model.......
RSI is @ 64.45...i do not see it going above 75 on a closing basis......
I will be selling majority of my position near 75.......which could come as soon as this Friday......
S&P 500 is @ 1466.47, near tern target maybe 1525 area........
I know what i am highlighting is not a popular focus, but reality may be close to my thesis.
Strongly suggest going for singles than attempting homerun & in the process singles fizzles away......
Good luck with your own trading thesis.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Friday, January 4, 2013
Indices closed UP .04% to .49%....NICE !!!!
Indices were able to recover from Fed surprise of QE0 & moved upwards.
S&P 500 closed @ 1466.47 which is higher high & highest close in this run.
RSI @ 64.45
CMF @ 0.144
Internals were :
UP volume led by 4.01 to 1 in NYSE & 1.95 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 3.27 to 1 in NYSE & 1.87 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 267 in NYSE & 113 in Nasdaq
VIX got crushed by another 5.01% @ 13.83...52 wk low is 13.30
Oil closed @ $93.09
Gold closed @ $1648.90
Canadian $ closed @ 101.44...Canadian jobs growth was 796% more than consensus..expectations 5,000 actual 39,800. Jobless rate in Canada is @ 4 yr low of 7.1%
In my portfolio :
Sold CRUS
Doubled my position in TCK @ $37.30
Portfolio is KORS,JCP,TCK,YUM
Here is portfolio weighting :
TCK 28.85%
KORS 25.96%
YUM 23.51%
JCP 21.68%
Exposure 65%
I am planning to add one more stock to my portfolio.
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included JCP,YUM,
CF,APKT,FB,POT,M,EXPE,GOOG,WYNN,LVS,
GS,AGU,FCX,RVBD,RIMM,COH,C,SNDK,MOS,
NVDA,X,STLD,QIHU,ECA,BAC,MS,BJRI,MLNX....
Next post by 2 PM Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 closed @ 1466.47 which is higher high & highest close in this run.
RSI @ 64.45
CMF @ 0.144
Internals were :
UP volume led by 4.01 to 1 in NYSE & 1.95 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 3.27 to 1 in NYSE & 1.87 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 267 in NYSE & 113 in Nasdaq
VIX got crushed by another 5.01% @ 13.83...52 wk low is 13.30
Oil closed @ $93.09
Gold closed @ $1648.90
Canadian $ closed @ 101.44...Canadian jobs growth was 796% more than consensus..expectations 5,000 actual 39,800. Jobless rate in Canada is @ 4 yr low of 7.1%
In my portfolio :
Sold CRUS
Doubled my position in TCK @ $37.30
Portfolio is KORS,JCP,TCK,YUM
Here is portfolio weighting :
TCK 28.85%
KORS 25.96%
YUM 23.51%
JCP 21.68%
Exposure 65%
I am planning to add one more stock to my portfolio.
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included JCP,YUM,
CF,APKT,FB,POT,M,EXPE,GOOG,WYNN,LVS,
GS,AGU,FCX,RVBD,RIMM,COH,C,SNDK,MOS,
NVDA,X,STLD,QIHU,ECA,BAC,MS,BJRI,MLNX....
Next post by 2 PM Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Thursday, January 3, 2013
Indices closed down .16% to .38%........
Indices were dealt with a policy "surprise" around 2 PM by Fed in its minute.
S&P 500 closed @ 1459.37
RSI @ 62.62
CMF @ 0.153
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.11 to 1 in NYSE & .82 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.28 to 1 in NYSE & .95 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 276 in NYSE & 107 in Nasdaq
VIX closed Down .82% @ 14.56
In my portfolio :
Sold AUY
Portfolio is CRUS,KORS,JCP,TCK,YUM
Stocks which wre green @ close included KORS,YUM,
AMZN,PCLN,NFLX,GOOG,LULU,LVS,BIDU,
DNKN,MA,V,MU,C,SBUX,MCD,SINA,
QIHU,ECA,BJRI,WYNN....
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil & Gold Down
About market, Fed minute hinted @ policy change which may be negative for gold & long term interest rates. Friday is all about Jobs report, consensus is anywhere from 150K to 160K, GS is @ 200K.This is not a reliable report with wild swing. IF there is a weakness in indices, it will provide another buying opportunity. I am planning to add IF there is weakness @ open. Investing thesis has not changed for short term.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 closed @ 1459.37
RSI @ 62.62
CMF @ 0.153
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.11 to 1 in NYSE & .82 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.28 to 1 in NYSE & .95 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 276 in NYSE & 107 in Nasdaq
VIX closed Down .82% @ 14.56
In my portfolio :
Sold AUY
Portfolio is CRUS,KORS,JCP,TCK,YUM
Stocks which wre green @ close included KORS,YUM,
AMZN,PCLN,NFLX,GOOG,LULU,LVS,BIDU,
DNKN,MA,V,MU,C,SBUX,MCD,SINA,
QIHU,ECA,BJRI,WYNN....
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil & Gold Down
About market, Fed minute hinted @ policy change which may be negative for gold & long term interest rates. Friday is all about Jobs report, consensus is anywhere from 150K to 160K, GS is @ 200K.This is not a reliable report with wild swing. IF there is a weakness in indices, it will provide another buying opportunity. I am planning to add IF there is weakness @ open. Investing thesis has not changed for short term.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Indices Down .10% to .18%......
Indices are giving technical confirmation of this rally by making higher highs, even after a huge move yesterday.
S&P 500 @ 1460.27, high today so far 1465.47
Internals are positive
Oil UP 8 cents
Gold Down $14.60
Canadian $ Down 4 tick @ 101.46
VIX Down 2.93% @ 14.25
Portfolio is CRUS,KORS,JCP,TCK,AUY,YUM
Most stocks are UP
@ 1.59 following are red :
AUY,TCK,JCP,PANW,APKT,FB,MLNX,
AAPL,M,AEM,GG,RIMM,YHOO,RVBD,
FFIV,GMCR,LRCX,MOS,EGO,SLW,
MS,GS,IBN......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 @ 1460.27, high today so far 1465.47
Internals are positive
Oil UP 8 cents
Gold Down $14.60
Canadian $ Down 4 tick @ 101.46
VIX Down 2.93% @ 14.25
Portfolio is CRUS,KORS,JCP,TCK,AUY,YUM
Most stocks are UP
@ 1.59 following are red :
AUY,TCK,JCP,PANW,APKT,FB,MLNX,
AAPL,M,AEM,GG,RIMM,YHOO,RVBD,
FFIV,GMCR,LRCX,MOS,EGO,SLW,
MS,GS,IBN......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Indices closed UP 2.35% to 3.07%......NICE !!!!
As politicians disappeared, markets took off.
S&P 500 closed @ 1462.64
RSI @ 63.93
CMF @ 0.152
Internals were :
UP volume led by 11.53 to 1 in NYSE & 12.91 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 9.98 to 1 in NYSE & 6.65 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 436 in NYSE & 220 in Nasdaq
VIX tumbled 18.53% @ 14.68
Oil closed @ $93.12
Gold closed @ $1668.80
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets UP
AH Oil & Gold Down
AH News MLNX Down 13.87%
Stocks which were UP 3% or more included CRUS,JCP,TCK,
LEN,RVBD,HMC,LVS,BIDU,FFIV,AAPL,MA,GMCR,FB,
LRCX,MU,BRCM,JDSU,CIEN,C,BAC,GS,MLNX,QCOM,
NVDA,X,STLD,SINA,KOG,WYNN,AGU,IBN....
About market, TAPE was the best i have seen in a year. Internals were extremely strong. With this kind of momentum & closing @ absolute high of the day, it is all set to make a new 12 month high.Next number to cross in S&P 500 is 1474.51 which was September 2012 high.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 closed @ 1462.64
RSI @ 63.93
CMF @ 0.152
Internals were :
UP volume led by 11.53 to 1 in NYSE & 12.91 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 9.98 to 1 in NYSE & 6.65 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 436 in NYSE & 220 in Nasdaq
VIX tumbled 18.53% @ 14.68
Oil closed @ $93.12
Gold closed @ $1668.80
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets UP
AH Oil & Gold Down
AH News MLNX Down 13.87%
Stocks which were UP 3% or more included CRUS,JCP,TCK,
LEN,RVBD,HMC,LVS,BIDU,FFIV,AAPL,MA,GMCR,FB,
LRCX,MU,BRCM,JDSU,CIEN,C,BAC,GS,MLNX,QCOM,
NVDA,X,STLD,SINA,KOG,WYNN,AGU,IBN....
About market, TAPE was the best i have seen in a year. Internals were extremely strong. With this kind of momentum & closing @ absolute high of the day, it is all set to make a new 12 month high.Next number to cross in S&P 500 is 1474.51 which was September 2012 high.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Indices UP 1.67% to 2.26%....NICE !!!!
Indices are sharply UP after game playing by politicians came to an abrupt end as clock ran out.
S&P 500 @ 1450.86, highest level since October highs.
Internals are positive & running minimum 5 to 1
Oil UP $1.09
Gold UP $12.70
Canadian $ UP 64 tick @ 101.36
VIX Down 12.99% @ 15.68
In my portfolio :
Bought YUM @ $67.40
Portfolio is CRUS,KORS,JCP,TCK,AUY,YUM
Exposure 82%
Most stocks are UP
@ 1.46 following are down :
KORS,PANW,M,NFLX,LULU,RIMM,
COH,LNKD,QIHU,ECA......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 @ 1450.86, highest level since October highs.
Internals are positive & running minimum 5 to 1
Oil UP $1.09
Gold UP $12.70
Canadian $ UP 64 tick @ 101.36
VIX Down 12.99% @ 15.68
In my portfolio :
Bought YUM @ $67.40
Portfolio is CRUS,KORS,JCP,TCK,AUY,YUM
Exposure 82%
Most stocks are UP
@ 1.46 following are down :
KORS,PANW,M,NFLX,LULU,RIMM,
COH,LNKD,QIHU,ECA......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
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