Indices closed UP.
S&P 500 @ 3232.39, high 3233.13, low 3196.00
RSI @ 74.48
CMF @ 0.267
Internals were :
UP volume led by 10.87 to 1 in NYSE & 2.54 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 4.36 to 1 in NYSE & 3.02 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 72 in NYSE & 124 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 5.26% @ 25.81
Oil @ $38.19
Gold @ $1705.10
Canadian $ @ .6617
In my portfolio :
Bought in pre market GOLD @ $23.46
SHOP @ $715.00
Added 50% SU @ $21.22
Portfolio GOLD CIEN CNX SHOP SU
Stocks which were UP 6% or more included CNX
CGC TLRY CRON APA CCL NCLH DAL
UAL MGM WYNN GAN LYFT ROKU
BA JKS SPWR FSLR SLB CLVS
NIO NTNX X M ....
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil & Gold UP
About market, TAPE was strong from open till close and closed @ high of the day. Nasdaq did dip into red briefly but made a new closing all time high. Laggards were UP sharply again as new allocation to equities are pouring in. Fed meeting starting on Tuesday with statement on Wednesday @ 2 PM. Fed keep pouring funds into all aspect of market to give support / boost.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Monday, June 8, 2020
Sunday, June 7, 2020
Risk reward analysis for US stock market......
US stock market has been on a tear, completed V turn from March 23rd low to 5th June close...a remarkable pace.
Nasdaq made a new all time high of 9845.69.......nobody could have predicted this 11 weeks ago...
SOX also made a new all time high of 2030.47......
SO Nasdaq & SOX are the superstars of this V turn......
Nasdaq & SOX have made a " golden cross " also......
All of the major indices are above 50 DMA & 200 DMA including Russell 2000
All of the above are major technical milestones.......
All this good news calls for some analysis of risk / reward ratio going forward....
When I want to analyze market deeper, then I look to my trusted RSI ...which is as follows :
DOW 74.04
S&P 500 72.48
XLE 71.70
IWM 70.95
Nasdaq 70.95
SOX 69.51
TAN 66.52
GLD 42.69
Looking @ above RSI numbers, risk has increased substantially for pullbacks / sideways move in many sectors, anything above 70 RSI is considered overbought and is taken as contrary indicator irrespective of jubilation / euphoria.
The question is are we going to fight for last $$ or book gains and wait for better RSI numbers.
Ironically Gold is looking much better based on RSI of 42.69...30 RSI is considered oversold and we are very close to it.....
BUT markets gives you a sense of " nothing can go wrong because I am so good @ making money syndrome...a sure sign of TOP....
Sentiment which is extremely bullish " always is near top " is rampant enthusiasm for everything going right for economic resurgence......
BUT a bigger question is..... are we justified in making new all time high in Nasdaq & SOX...is profit growing faster than previous high environment?
Answer is " absolutely NOT "
This is where Risk / reward ratio comes into play......
YES...market could go further UP based on new allocation to equities........
Then we are more vulnerable to a quick U turn in market.....
Hopefully we are all looking @ our exposure lot closely while going is good....a major reduction in exposure is " highly recommended "
Stay with very high comfort / high conviction stocks only.....
Good luck with your own analysis & comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Nasdaq made a new all time high of 9845.69.......nobody could have predicted this 11 weeks ago...
SOX also made a new all time high of 2030.47......
SO Nasdaq & SOX are the superstars of this V turn......
Nasdaq & SOX have made a " golden cross " also......
All of the major indices are above 50 DMA & 200 DMA including Russell 2000
All of the above are major technical milestones.......
All this good news calls for some analysis of risk / reward ratio going forward....
When I want to analyze market deeper, then I look to my trusted RSI ...which is as follows :
DOW 74.04
S&P 500 72.48
XLE 71.70
IWM 70.95
Nasdaq 70.95
SOX 69.51
TAN 66.52
GLD 42.69
Looking @ above RSI numbers, risk has increased substantially for pullbacks / sideways move in many sectors, anything above 70 RSI is considered overbought and is taken as contrary indicator irrespective of jubilation / euphoria.
The question is are we going to fight for last $$ or book gains and wait for better RSI numbers.
Ironically Gold is looking much better based on RSI of 42.69...30 RSI is considered oversold and we are very close to it.....
BUT markets gives you a sense of " nothing can go wrong because I am so good @ making money syndrome...a sure sign of TOP....
Sentiment which is extremely bullish " always is near top " is rampant enthusiasm for everything going right for economic resurgence......
BUT a bigger question is..... are we justified in making new all time high in Nasdaq & SOX...is profit growing faster than previous high environment?
Answer is " absolutely NOT "
This is where Risk / reward ratio comes into play......
YES...market could go further UP based on new allocation to equities........
Then we are more vulnerable to a quick U turn in market.....
Hopefully we are all looking @ our exposure lot closely while going is good....a major reduction in exposure is " highly recommended "
Stay with very high comfort / high conviction stocks only.....
Good luck with your own analysis & comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Friday, June 5, 2020
Indices closed UP 2.06% to 3.15%....NICE !!!!
Indices closed near high of the day, this day will go down in history books for outsize gains seen in Oil, Airlines, Cruise lines and Casino stocks to name a few sectors. For me it was mind numbing experience where % gains were so much, it was hard to believe it was actually happening to my portfolio.
S&P 500 @ 3193.93, high 3211.72, low 3163.84
RSI @ 72.48
CMF @ 0.250
Internals were :
UP volume led by 8.15 to 1 in NYSE & 3.46 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 4.99 to 1 in NYSE & 3.07 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 65 in NYSE & 111 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 5.00% @ 24.52
Oil @ $39.55
Gold @ $1683.00
Canadian $ .6575
Stocks which were UP 5%++ APA CCL CNX DAL SU
AAL DHI BA UAL SLB SNAP CHK NTAP LYFT
ENPH CNQ NCLH YELP WYNN SWKS X.....
In my portfolio :
In pre market bought SU @ $20.12
In After hours Sold
APA @ $15.96
CCL @ $22.05
MGM @ $22.00
DAL @ $35.09
I have sold 58% of my portfolio in After hours.....
Here is my portfolio weighting for 42% allocation :
CIEN 51.33%
CNX 25.60%
SU 23.07%
Next post by 6 PM on Sunday!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 @ 3193.93, high 3211.72, low 3163.84
RSI @ 72.48
CMF @ 0.250
Internals were :
UP volume led by 8.15 to 1 in NYSE & 3.46 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 4.99 to 1 in NYSE & 3.07 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 65 in NYSE & 111 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 5.00% @ 24.52
Oil @ $39.55
Gold @ $1683.00
Canadian $ .6575
Stocks which were UP 5%++ APA CCL CNX DAL SU
AAL DHI BA UAL SLB SNAP CHK NTAP LYFT
ENPH CNQ NCLH YELP WYNN SWKS X.....
In my portfolio :
In pre market bought SU @ $20.12
In After hours Sold
APA @ $15.96
CCL @ $22.05
MGM @ $22.00
DAL @ $35.09
I have sold 58% of my portfolio in After hours.....
Here is my portfolio weighting for 42% allocation :
CIEN 51.33%
CNX 25.60%
SU 23.07%
Next post by 6 PM on Sunday!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Thursday, June 4, 2020
Indices closed mixed.....
Indices closed mixed.
S&P 500 @ 3112.35, low 3090.41, high 3128.91
RSI @ 67.44
CMF @ 0.214
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.95 to 1 in NYSE & 2.15 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.08 to 1 in NYSE & 1.06 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 45 in NYSE & 60 in Nasdaq
VIX UP .58% @ 25.81
Oil @ $37.41
Gold @ $1727.40
Canadian $ @ .6483
In my portfolio :
Sold AAL @ $12.75 in pre market
Bought DAL @ $29.70 in pre market
Sold CRWD @ $92.75
Bought MGM @ $21.25
Portfolio APA CCL CIEN CNX DAL MGM
Stocks which were UP 3% or more APA CCL DAL MGM
AAL ERI LYFT CRON MU EAT NCLH GILD BA JKS
UAL SLB MS OSTK......
AH Futures UP
AH Asian Markets Down
AH Oil & Gold Down
About market, TAPE closed mixed with Nasdaq stocks under pressure after making a new all time high for Nasdaq 100. Airlines stocks were the star of today along with Casino & Cruise lines, all coming back on stream as of today or planning aggressive booking format 50% capacity is the word.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 @ 3112.35, low 3090.41, high 3128.91
RSI @ 67.44
CMF @ 0.214
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.95 to 1 in NYSE & 2.15 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.08 to 1 in NYSE & 1.06 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 45 in NYSE & 60 in Nasdaq
VIX UP .58% @ 25.81
Oil @ $37.41
Gold @ $1727.40
Canadian $ @ .6483
In my portfolio :
Sold AAL @ $12.75 in pre market
Bought DAL @ $29.70 in pre market
Sold CRWD @ $92.75
Bought MGM @ $21.25
Portfolio APA CCL CIEN CNX DAL MGM
Stocks which were UP 3% or more APA CCL DAL MGM
AAL ERI LYFT CRON MU EAT NCLH GILD BA JKS
UAL SLB MS OSTK......
AH Futures UP
AH Asian Markets Down
AH Oil & Gold Down
About market, TAPE closed mixed with Nasdaq stocks under pressure after making a new all time high for Nasdaq 100. Airlines stocks were the star of today along with Casino & Cruise lines, all coming back on stream as of today or planning aggressive booking format 50% capacity is the word.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Wednesday, June 3, 2020
Indices closed UP .78% to 2.05%....NICE !!!!!
Indices closed UP.
S&P 500 @ 3122.87, high 3130.94, low 3098.90
RSI @ 68.95
CMF @ 0.159
Internals were :
UP volume led by 5.62 to 1 in NYSE & 2.72 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 3.81 to 1 in NYSE & 2.27 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 81 in NYSE & 114 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 4.40% @ 25.66
Oil @ $37.29
Gold @ $1704.80
Canadian $ @ .6507
In my portfolio :
Sold MGM @ $20.00
Sold SU @ $18.73
Bought in closing seconds CIEN @ $56.40
Before open CIEN reporting, here are the expectations :
Sales April Q $881.53 millions, EPS 49 cents
Guidance July Q $969.26, EPS 71 cents
Expecting a beat in Sales and EPS.....
Portfolio AAL APA CCL CIEN CNX CRWD
Stocks which were UP 3% or more AAL CRWD MGM SU
ZM NTAP LYFT KBH PINS CLDR SQ MU LITE BMO EAT KRA
TWTR TER NCLH DAL BIDU PHM NKE BA VICR JKS FSLR
MRVL WB BZUN UAL OLED QRVO SLB AMAT LNG LVS
WYNN M.....
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil & Gold Down
About market, TAPE was in overdrive from open until close, closing near high of the day. Economic activity is perking up in USA which is boosting confidence in equity investing, many had sold in panic due to COVID-19, now they are all backing up the truck, thus unbelievable recovery in recouping all losses. All this euphoria is making me extremely cautious and doing fast trading based on gains. When it seems too good, be warned!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 @ 3122.87, high 3130.94, low 3098.90
RSI @ 68.95
CMF @ 0.159
Internals were :
UP volume led by 5.62 to 1 in NYSE & 2.72 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 3.81 to 1 in NYSE & 2.27 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 81 in NYSE & 114 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 4.40% @ 25.66
Oil @ $37.29
Gold @ $1704.80
Canadian $ @ .6507
In my portfolio :
Sold MGM @ $20.00
Sold SU @ $18.73
Bought in closing seconds CIEN @ $56.40
Before open CIEN reporting, here are the expectations :
Sales April Q $881.53 millions, EPS 49 cents
Guidance July Q $969.26, EPS 71 cents
Expecting a beat in Sales and EPS.....
Portfolio AAL APA CCL CIEN CNX CRWD
Stocks which were UP 3% or more AAL CRWD MGM SU
ZM NTAP LYFT KBH PINS CLDR SQ MU LITE BMO EAT KRA
TWTR TER NCLH DAL BIDU PHM NKE BA VICR JKS FSLR
MRVL WB BZUN UAL OLED QRVO SLB AMAT LNG LVS
WYNN M.....
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil & Gold Down
About market, TAPE was in overdrive from open until close, closing near high of the day. Economic activity is perking up in USA which is boosting confidence in equity investing, many had sold in panic due to COVID-19, now they are all backing up the truck, thus unbelievable recovery in recouping all losses. All this euphoria is making me extremely cautious and doing fast trading based on gains. When it seems too good, be warned!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Tuesday, June 2, 2020
Indices closed UP .59% to 1.05%....NICE!!!!
Indices closed UP.
S&P 500 @ 3080.82, high 3081.07, low 3051.64
RSI @ 66.14
CMF @ 0.098
Internals were :
UP volume led by 3.89 to 1 in NYSE & 1.84 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 2.89 to 1 in NYSE & 1.70 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 70 in NYSE & 96 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 4.92% @ 26.84
Oil @ $36.81
Gold @ $1735.00
Canadian $ @ .6479
In my portfolio :
Sold ENPH @ $57.35
Bought CRWD @ $91.50...in regular hours, earnings came AH and it beat all expectations of Sales, EPS & Guidance CRWD close AH UP $5.75 or 6.23% @ $98.00...expect many upgrades and price target hikes.....
Portfolio AAL APA CCL CNX CRWD MGM SU...
Stocks which were UP 3% or more included CNX APA SU
NTAP KBH CNQ SQ KRA TER MRVL QCOM BZUN
BABA QRVO YY SLB OSTK SWKS M......
AH Futures UP
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil UP
AH Gold Down
About market, TAPE closed @ high of the day despite demonstration / disruption about opportunities and equality. Damages were deemed minor and will be restored easily. We are all set to hit new all time highs based on buying binge from under-invested in equities which has gained 40% from mid March lows or in last 11 weeks.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 @ 3080.82, high 3081.07, low 3051.64
RSI @ 66.14
CMF @ 0.098
Internals were :
UP volume led by 3.89 to 1 in NYSE & 1.84 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 2.89 to 1 in NYSE & 1.70 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 70 in NYSE & 96 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 4.92% @ 26.84
Oil @ $36.81
Gold @ $1735.00
Canadian $ @ .6479
In my portfolio :
Sold ENPH @ $57.35
Bought CRWD @ $91.50...in regular hours, earnings came AH and it beat all expectations of Sales, EPS & Guidance CRWD close AH UP $5.75 or 6.23% @ $98.00...expect many upgrades and price target hikes.....
Portfolio AAL APA CCL CNX CRWD MGM SU...
Stocks which were UP 3% or more included CNX APA SU
NTAP KBH CNQ SQ KRA TER MRVL QCOM BZUN
BABA QRVO YY SLB OSTK SWKS M......
AH Futures UP
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil UP
AH Gold Down
About market, TAPE closed @ high of the day despite demonstration / disruption about opportunities and equality. Damages were deemed minor and will be restored easily. We are all set to hit new all time highs based on buying binge from under-invested in equities which has gained 40% from mid March lows or in last 11 weeks.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Monday, June 1, 2020
Indices closed UP .36% to .66%....NICE !!!!
Indices closed UP.
S&P 500 @ 3055.73, high 3062.18, low 3031.54
RSI @ 64.35
CMF @ 0.097
Internals were :
UP volume led by 4.26 to 1 in NYSE & 2.56 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 3.26 to 1 in NYSE & 1.59 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 75 in NYSE & 125 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 2.62% @ 28.23
Oil @ $34.44
Gold @ $1750.30
Canadian $ @ .6393
Portfolio AAL APA CCL CNX ENPH MGM SU
Stocks which were UP 5% or more included AAL APA CCL
NVAX CLDR SEDG NCLH RUN BYND BZUN TSLA
UAL YY OSTK X TRIL......
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil & Gold UP
About market, TAPE opened lower but closed near high of the day despite Chinese retaliation not to buy Agricultural products from USA. Market is getting stretched in many sectors, please check RSI of 60 or higher to do program selling. TAPE is too calm to fool many people without notice, overbought is the word.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 @ 3055.73, high 3062.18, low 3031.54
RSI @ 64.35
CMF @ 0.097
Internals were :
UP volume led by 4.26 to 1 in NYSE & 2.56 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 3.26 to 1 in NYSE & 1.59 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 75 in NYSE & 125 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 2.62% @ 28.23
Oil @ $34.44
Gold @ $1750.30
Canadian $ @ .6393
Portfolio AAL APA CCL CNX ENPH MGM SU
Stocks which were UP 5% or more included AAL APA CCL
NVAX CLDR SEDG NCLH RUN BYND BZUN TSLA
UAL YY OSTK X TRIL......
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil & Gold UP
About market, TAPE opened lower but closed near high of the day despite Chinese retaliation not to buy Agricultural products from USA. Market is getting stretched in many sectors, please check RSI of 60 or higher to do program selling. TAPE is too calm to fool many people without notice, overbought is the word.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
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