US stock market in blowout phase.....

 Market is in blowout phase which can end abruptly without notice.

Either on news or no news @ all just overbought condition we may drop substantially in a day.

This is not an orderly market anymore.

Many stocks are over stretched to the point of insanity

Can it go on further.....maybe

Serious rotation will come into play, out from froth and into deep value

How to tell what is frothy and what is deep value.....very easy...it IS RSI number.

Here is the RSI for entire market / indices / sector :

TAN              79.40

SOX             75.20

XLF             74.87

IWM            74.28

Nasdaq      71.33

S&P 500    70.27

DOW         68.32

XLE           66.45

JETS         51.54

SLV          46.81

GLD        42.85

Solar, Semiconductors, EV and financials are getting lot of funds flow based on Democratic sweep and upcoming stimulus program.

Bottom 3 sectors are Airlines Gold & Silver.......

Other deeply discounted sector is Cruise lines....where there has been outflow...

Why do I analyze RSI about sectors / index / market.....it gives a very quick focus where to look and what to avoid immediately.

There are millions of equities trading in world exchanges, almost impossible to check individual stock RSI......

YES you must know where overall market IS and RSI does just that.

High fliers and deeply overbought stocks does not represent good Risk / Reward ratio.....and may be very stressful with wild swings on a daily basis.

It IS time to play extremely conservative when valuations makes no sense in short term

Many things are priced-in in many stocks, one needs to locate stocks which represent good Risk / Reward ratio plus good prospect going forward are being ignored based on " current environment "

Stock market always looks ahead 6 months, thus try to predict environment of July 2021....things may be lot different than today.....

Once you narrow down sectors which is NOT deeply overbought then find stocks which offers " compelling bargain based on 2022 earnings "

Good luck with your own analysis and strategy.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .18% to 1.03%....NICE !!!!

 Indices closed near high of the day. DOW, S&P 500 & Nasdaq all closed @ new all time high. Oil closed @ record high of 2 years. Technology continue to shine in rotation. We are off to a very good start for 2021.....

S&P 500 @ 3824.68, high 3826.69, low 3783.60

RSI @ 70.27

CMF @ 0.225

Internals were :

UP volume led by .96 to 1 in NYSE & 1.50 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.10 to 1 in NYSE & 1.06 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 588 in NYSE & 527 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 3.62% @ 21.56

Oil @ $52.24

Gold @ $1835.40

Canadian $ @ .7298

Stocks which were UP by 2% or more included BB MGM

RIOT CLF AI DASH BIDU RUN NIO DKNG DADA

PENN GOOS DOCU ZI SHOP ROKU ZM DDOG

JD IQ BZUN TSLA BABA FFIV OLED YY 

CMG X.....

Here is my portfolio weighting :

SU         29.72%

MGM    18.54%

AAL      13.07%

BB       11.37%

CCL    10.24%

APA     9.30%

TECK  5.93%

CNX   1.83%

Next post by 6 PM on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .69% to 2.56%....NICE !!!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 3803.79, high 3811.55, low 3764.71

RSI @ 68.25

CMF @ 0.145

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.94 to 1 in NYSE & 6.30 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.72 to 1 in NYSE & 2.99 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 637 in NYSE & 530 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 10.77% @ 22.37

Oil @ $50.83

Gold @ $1913.60

Canadian $.7274

Portfolio AAL APA BB CCL CNX MGM SU TECK

Stocks which were UP 4% or more included   BB

FUBO RIOT AI MSTR DASH SQ RIDE NKLA

SNAP PINS MRVL RUN NIO AMD SPWR JKS

CSIQ PANW DADA DOCU SHOP ESTC DDOG 

ENPH SEDG DHI PHM KBH XLNX NVDA

TSM TSLA FEYE FSLR AMAT ROKU OSTK

TLRY.....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE was strong and Nasdaq was flying and was strongest by far. Internals were strong also. DOW, S&P 500 & Nasdaq all made a new all time high. There was calm & unanimity on political front which is extremely positive. Stay home, Solar stocks, Technology were strong. Do not forget to book gains.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed....

 Indices closed mixed.

S&P 500 @ 3748.14, high 3783.04, low 3705.34

RSI @ 61.87

CMF @ 0.138

Internals were :

UP volume led by 3.80 to 1 in NYSE & 1.69 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.72 to 1 in NYSE & 1.64 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 649 in NYSE & 473 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 1.07% @ 25.07

Oil @ $50.63

Gold @ $1908.60

Canadian $ @ .7310

Portfolio AAL APA BB CCL CNX MGM SU TECK

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included APA CNX MGM

FCX CLF MSTR RIDE RUN IBM SPWR DKNG GAN JKS

CSIQ DADA PENN NEM ROKU CGC DAL HST ENPH

SEDG KRA VICR TSM TSLA JWN OXY SLB YELP

SOL MGA MS ULTA X M TLRY ACB.....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE started weak then greeted clean sweep by Democrats in Georgia thus a huge rally in Pot & Solar stocks. Stocks tempered their gains with " horror show in DC " Stocks ended mixed by close with Nasdaq in mini red. Internals were strong. Thursday should be a catchup day in markets after " healing "

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .55% to .95%...NICE !!!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 3726.86, high 3737.83, low 3695.07

RSI @ 58.94

CMF @ 0.154

Internals were :

UP volume led by 3.34 to 1 in NYSE & 3.74 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 2.86 to 1 in NYSE & 2.49 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 273 in NYSE & 196 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 6.04% @ 25.34

Oil @ $49.93

Gold @ $1954.40

Canadian $ @ .7295

Portfolio AAL APA BB CCL CNX MGM SU TECK

Stocks which were UP 3% or more included APA SU TECK

MGNI FUBO RIOT FCX CLF DASH SQ RUN MU LYFT

DADA PENN CNQ ROKU CGC CRWD UBER ENPH

PDD LITE KRA BA HUYA LRCX UAL AMAT BABA

EXPE YY OXY SLB LNG GPRO WYNN MGA 

OSTK SWKS X TLRY.....

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Market Mixed

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down

About market, Indices closed near high of the day, many sectors participated in this rally, Energy stocks were UP close to 10% as price of oil touched $50. Internals were strong. Wednesday could be dictated by result of Georgia election, IF republican maintain majority in Senate then a strong rally is expected as gridlock is ideal for economy.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .25% to 1.48%....

 Indices closed down,

S&P 500 @ 3700.65, low 3662.71, high 3769.99

RSI @ 54.98

CMF @ 0.185

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.93 to 1 in NYSE & .52 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.14 to 1 in NYSE & 1.43 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 336 in NYSE & 279 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 18.55% @ 26.97

Oil @ $47.62

Gold @ $1956.60

Canadian $ @ .7216

In my portfolio :

Sold AG @ $14.40

Added 40% MGM @ $30.40

Portfolio AAL APA BB CCL CNX MGM SU TECK

Stocks which closed green included APA CNX TECK 

AG FCX MSTR SQ RIDE NKLA NIO TSLA PINS

IAG JKS KL CSIQ GOLD NXPI DADA NEM CNQ

CGC LITE MRNA LRCX IQ HUYA LULU TSM

AEM FSLR OSTK X ACB TLRY....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil  UP

AH Gold Down

About market, TAPE opened higher made new all time high then plummeted down 700 in DOW, similar losses in S&P 500 & Nasdaq. There was slight improvement by close. Reason for this reversal was rotation, Georgia election & weakness in Chinese economy. Hopefully turnaround Tuesday will see a strong close despite advance polling speculation about Georgia election.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

2021 US stock market.......

 Here we are in 2021.....

US stock market has gained 43% in Nasdaq & 7% in DOW for the year 2020.....

SO IF you bought Nasdaq then you are looking very smart.....

BUT IF you were in DOW it was UP only 7%...which is below 8% average gains for market...

SO.....with all the fear & talk of Pandemic which started in January in Wuhan China and now in January of 2021 it is still gaining momentum in 2nd wave in US / Canada 3rd wave in some countries.....BUT we ended stock market in 2020 as IF it was a positive......

Most of us in this BLOG and elsewhere did not follow any script and did our own thing.....

Surprisingly, I stayed away from my favorite sector technology as it was gaining strong momentum....

I played MGM AAL CCL APA CNX over & over as I liked its volatility in a very narrow range compared to wild swings of Technology stocks which was making me very nervous...my gains for the year was 58.40%.....with very little stress....

Looking forward to 2021.....

It is not going to be easy for popular stocks

Rotation will be in high gear and may outperform most popular stocks, @ least that is the theme I am working with....

Biggest beneficiaries of 2020 was not my approach but those who listened to the market where 400% gains in some stocks were normal......

It will be interesting IF overall gains of any individual portfolio matched those 400%+++ gains....as volatility was stomach turning in those stocks......

Looking forward....

BITCOIN related stocks are being touted for 300%+++ gains in 2021, prediction for bitcoin is running into 6 digits value by end of the year.

Oil related ETF XLE ( stocks ) have made it into Dan Niles screaming buy list, another person who was known to be technology stocks focus....but he is ignoring techs to a large extent....

SO for 2021 ...one needs to think outside their own comfort zone to capitalize on rotation for 2021....

Overall market may not match 2020 @ all, it may be very sluggish for whole year.....

Some may wonder why sluggish for 2021, It seems that stocks which may perform well are not either in Major Index / Indices thus averages may stall.

Most of the prominent stocks have outperformed in 2020 and may be ahead of its fundamental or technicals thus may trade in a narrow range for 2021.....

There is lot to analyze for 2021, but starting with a fresh approach and outside the box is highly recommended.

Good luck with your own thesis, strategy and expertise.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem