Thursday, October 2, 2008

S&P 500 testing support near LOW???

S&P 500 came very close to 52 week low but managed to close @ 1114.28...about 8 points above LOW......

Not a good day for all commodities...down sharply .......

Friday's Jobs report is expected to be BAD.....but the question IS...is it reflected in the indices...my answer is probably....

House is expected to pass the economic plan.....

With the passage...market MAY find its footing going forward.

In my portfolio :

Sold PMCS and booked a loss of $1.50 per share......

Bought RIMM..my cost $62.55

Porfolio is BRCM,JNPR,NVDA,PHM,RIMM,SOL,TRLG,VMW.......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets doing retest of low & waiting on house vote !!!

Markets are doing RETEST of lows......S&P 500 went down to 1122.04...15+ from 52wk low.....

Market is also waiting for house vote on Friday.....

There is a general understanding that economy has slowed down worldwide & it will be a slow climb up to normal level.....

In my portfolio :

Bought TRLG cost $24.25.....

Portfolio is BRCM,JNPR,NVDA,PHM,PMCS,SOL,TRLG,VMW......

JNPR was downgraded again and it hit 52 wk low on concern of macro issues of growth going forward.....

Ag sector got a jolt after MOS ER last night with inventory build up.......

Semis are down as there is report of weak demand......which IS factored in semi stock prices???

Solar are also in a "waiting for news mode"...are down with market selling.......

Today market is trying to give message to House to get it together or else.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS...sorry for delay as my friends & relatives were on the phone for holiday greeting.

Saleem

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Markets recouped MORE than Half of its loss...Nice !!!!

Markets "surprised most skeptics" by going UP 485 points on the last trading day of the month...which was dreaded by many.

It is always a good idea to stay diversfied in this crazy market......

Solar stocks were mixed...some UP strong like SPWRA,SOL.....while others were either red or barely green......

Bought PHM a diversified home builder...whose balance sheet are second best after TOL..my cost $13.89...

My portfolio is BRCM,JNPR,NVDA,PHM,PMCS,SOL,VMW......

We MAY have another UP day for Wednesday......which will be nice & will build confidence of those who are looking for an entry point......

For Wednesday...I AM not able to post as we along with all Muslims in Toronto will be celebrating our Eid which is a celebration after the holy month of Ramadan....Will be going to mosque first..then will visit friends whole day.......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets rebounding......

Markets are rebounding and is near high of the day after 90 minutes of trading......

Selling into strength is NOT working as markets are deeply OVERSOLD and buyers are snapping bargains......

In my portfolio :

BRCM UP $1.01

JNPR UP 37 cents

NVDA UP 34 cents

PMCS UP 19 cents

SOL UP 82 cents

VMW UP 23 cents

@ 11.55 AM following are green in my watch list :

RIMM (upgraded on valuation),AAPL,POT,AGU,IPI,MON,
STP,WFR,V,C,TKC,CTRN,YHOO,ICE,CCJ,JRCC,NDAQ,WYNN,
MA,BIDU,LVS,SOHU,NYX,SAY,SPWRA,FSLR,GS,IBN,GOOG,
FWLT,SNY,FXI,AMZN,X,QLD.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, September 29, 2008

S&P 500 @ 1106.39 is the lowest close today....

Markets went in a shock after a week of assurance that House will pass the rescue bill...House actually rejected by a convincing margin.....

There is "no credibility" in what politicians say & DO.....

Markets do NOT like "surprises"...thus a total collapse in indices.....

S&P 500 closed @ LOW of the day......

There is a sense of panic on wall street...which is not good for confidence building for the economy.....

World does NOT understand US politician's approach to dealing with serious issues.....

I wish White House, Fed & Treasury come up with a plan which they administer to help unclogging financial mess....without legislative game playing.....

We are 29% down from high...average bear market is down 30% ......

Can market find its footing after this shock.....only time will tell......

So far futures are positive after factoring fair values.......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS....sorry for the delay in my post...had to collect my thoughts after freefall in markets.....

Saleem

S&P 500 went to 1164.06...well above 52 wk low???

1133.50 is the 52 week low on S&P 500...which should hold......

We are in the last inning of DEALING with this mess......

There IS worldwide UNDERSTANDING of the mess we are IN.......

Relative strength stocks to be held & weak stocks need to be sold.....

Know your stocks FA /TA/TAPE well ...then make the decision......NOT a good time to getting quick ideas @ all......

Time to step back & look @ your OWN portfolio...if it still makes sense..given the SLOW growth worldwide......

Not a good time to "fight the TAPE"....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, September 28, 2008

$700 Billion agreement almost done..now what???

The agreement on rescue package is almost complete with House voting today & Senate on Monday.....

It IS important to recognize that economic landscape has changed worldwide...which will affect stock selection & trading decision......

There is an agreement that worldwide economic growth is severely challenged...due to falling real estate prices all over....

Banks are in trouble all over with holding securities which has lost substantial value...so they all need to improve their deposit to loan ratio as approved by banking regulators in respective countries......

Now..... it all comes down to which sectors are the beneficiaries of this economic package....Companies will be able to continue their growth when credit is eased up......

Housing will be the biggest beneficiary of this package...so home builders looks like a great investment....

Mortgage lenders will also benefit....

Retailers will benefit....

Technology companies will get on growth path again.....

Due to economic slowdown...Bulk shippers are severely affected as is reflected in current prices...

Infrastructure companies MAY be negatively impacted.....

Ag MAY be negatively impacted as there has been bumper crop in India...which will ease prices on Rice,Wheat etc......

So...you can see that there are many cross-current which IS affecting many companies....

Q3 ER may be very challenging for many companies which will come out in Oct......

So...the safe way to be in this tough market is to be broadly diversified in many stocks.....cutting weak stocks from your portfolio is a good strategy....

IBD & Many technical outfits "highlights sectors"which IS strong.....no sense in paying for these services...if you are not going to follow their recommendations....

There IS such a thing as WEAK/STRONG stocks/sectors.....

So..pay attention to strength in sectors /stocks......

Admitting to a failed strategy is important for recovery in lost equity.....

It is never business as usual...when it comes to changing sectors/stocks....

IBD also teaches to cut loss @ 8%......which is a good way to prune bad picks......

Good luck with your OWN remake of your portfolio and future picks......

Markets does give a second chance to those who ADAPT.......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem