US stock market gave a stunning " downhill slide "
When all damages were counted to most portfolio, nothing got spared, from BRK-B...it was freefall of 7% to 15%......in a day.....
YES counting losses is extremely painful and no one was spared....
Reasons are never important....
It IS what are you going to do about it....
Many things can be done....
Like complete reconfigure your portfolio to hopefully better ideas....
OR partial switching of your portfolio
OR leave everything AS IS
I am in the last camp....leave my portfolio alone...
I am expecting a " sharp oversold bounce "
Generally after few days, we normally TEST the LOWS AGAIN....
Why I am leaving my portfolio unchanged....
BECAUSE It was all chosen after careful due diligence and have much higher CONVICTION than some other bright ideas....
YES these slump happens every NORMAL year.....so nothing unusual about this sharp decline.....
SO...follow your OWN instinct & stick to IT....
Here is my last week :
Last week down 19.40%
YTD down 33.28%
Here is my portfolio weighting :
GOOG 16.97%
SHOP 13.63%
TSLA 10.43%
AAPL 9.50%
UBER 8.42%
NVDA 7.55%
SMCI 7.47%
MSFT 7.24%
HOOD 7.13%
AVGO 6.98%
MU 3.06%
SLVU 1.62%
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
23 comments:
Hi Saleem,
I am sorry to hear about the ice storm that knocked out trees and power for 24 hours - just glad you and the house came out mostly unscathed!
Last week: -12.42% (YTD: -40.39%)
Portfolio Outperformers: ADT CVCO
Portfolio Underperformers: TNA DAVE PSNL GENI
It is impossible to be a long-term investor and not experience surprises that make you wonder why we do this in the first place. This week was incredibly terrible in price action, but everyone got the same treatment - nobody was spared. This means we didn't make a mistake; it was just that the unexpected absolutely happened. From here though, the only thing we can realistically do is be ready for the next event/action/move, even if that means staying put in your strongest conviction ideas until the dust settles.
Holdings: ADT CVCO DAVE ODD CWAN GENI PSNL TNA, cash 0%
Above 50 DMA: ADT
Above 200 DMA: CVCO DAVE GENI
The temptation here is to sell something that has exhibited relative strength to buy something that is very beat up, partly because anything exhibiting relative strength is potentially not economically sensitive and a rebound from deep levels of pessimism would help the riskiest stocks the most. I am not sure where I stand with this thinking, but selling ADT for some more TNA is an option here (also, if I had been around last week I may have sold TNA as it represented merely a "market call" of sorts).
We'll see how the market opens on Monday, and the worse it is, the more likely I am to make adjustments towards riskier investments. We continue with the process because eventually the results take care of themselves over time. Good luck to everyone here :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader, Simon, Michael, Ken
First of all welcome back to Stocktrader.
Thanks for your best wishes for my latest challenges. My backyard looks all littered with fallen branches still.
Was busy cleaning UP my neighbors which got 15% of my fallen branches, then my Electric chainsaw quit on me. Ordered a replacement which comes on Thursday.
Lot of work to do in my backyard, may take about a week.....
Market remains challenging near term....
Good luck to all !!!!
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Sold ADT @ 7.65 to raise cash
Bought SSYS @ 8.66 as 3D printing could see an inflection point in broadscale usage
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
I am eyeing HOOD for purchase also, but might just add to TNA for now.
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Thank you for your summary on market health and what we may expect as well as laying out the strategy to encounter the tough market.
At beginning of the year, your message was very clear.
Please DO NOT take 2025 as easy to beat and make easy money....It IS going to be " MUCH MUCH TOUGHER "
I sold most of my investment and let only 20% in the market but after 2 months, I felt more confident and got the big bull trap. Now, I am on the same boat as others and wait for the storm to pass. I copied your strategy and keep the portfolio the same to ride out the turbulent.
Michael
Hi Michael,
It is NOT easy to be positioned in any market, SO do not be hard on yourself, as long as you have CONVICTION & PATIENCE.....thing should work out.....
Always good to analyze, we learn more after our move.....
Saleem
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with SSYS....
Good luck with next pick...
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
The trading in FATN today seems to indicate a severely mispriced IPO. I wonder if it's an actual indication of continued individual investor enthusiasm in tech stocks or just a one-off situation.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Be careful in this BEAR environment
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Added the small amount of cash I had left to TNA @ 20.39
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with more TNA.
Hi Saleem,
Sold TNA @ 18.71 and trimmed all other positions to around 10% of portfolio
This raised about 30% cash and availability to buy 3 positions.
It feels like progress will be slow on negotiating all the necessary deals so I'm playing a bit of the sell now, buy later game (which NEVER works for me but here I try again). One of the things that bothers me the most is the spike in the 10-yr which tells me that liquidation of all assets is happening. In this light I don't think there can be a sustained bid in the market, until a major trading partner offers more concessions. The risk here is also that Congress takes back the tariff power more broadly and a national leadership/power crisis ensues.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Generally speaking your thesis is correct.
Only thing which is missing is, It IS a bear market, reasons are not important.
YES … being defensive is the right approach..,
Good luck with your strategy!
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Well... here's a positive development!
For expediency and exposure, I just deployed all my cash into TNA @ 22.94 (sad fill but I was away from computer briefly as the news broke).
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
To expand on my thoughts, this takes off the table some of the worst-case scenarios that could play out, and given the market's deeply oversold positioning and sentiment, it was likely there would be further upside from even the spike move. The question from here is where some of these stocks should ultimately be valued when moves of +20% happen in a few hours.
I think some of the negotiations won't necessarily go well, and China will be a significant sticking point, so the market will likely still be choppy and in a trading range for a while after this bounce. I also think stock picking becomes more important rather than viewing the market as one entity.
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Ok, backwards on trading again... With the dollar continuing the declines, and tariffs against China still ratcheting higher, a triple leverage fund is just too volatile and decays too quickly.
Sold TNA @ 20.32
Bought AEVA @ 7.48
Bought RBRK @ 58.74
I'll expand on these later - just wanted to get it out there.
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
AEVA is a leading provider of 4D Lidar solutions that will be key for autonomous and robotics, basically anything that moves. I was looking for a warehouse/industrial robotics solution and considered the usual players like SYM and PATH, but think AEVA might be the better play for now.
RBRK is key for protecting and managing data for corporations, especially in this world of hacking threats. I think it has good upside from here even in a tough environment, and last quarter showcased that.
I've also been eyeing LTH as the best way to play fitness, which appears to be benefitting from GLP-1 tailwinds (somewhat counterintuitively) and a renewed focus from the HHS department and head, but also should provide resilience if a subdued consumer spending environment ensues as people enjoy their subscription services that are already paid and focus a bit more internally. I don't have quite enough money to make this a full position, and it hasn't pulled back much, so it was last on the buy list. I'll make more decisions tomorrow.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with AEVA & RBRK....
This remains a " bear market "
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Bought 60% position (all my cash) of RXRX @ 5.90 to speculate on the new HHS directive to phase out monoclonal antibodies testing on animals. I may be a bit late to the trade but that's what speculation is for... looking for more upside over the short term.
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Sold ODD @ 40.51
A relatively expensive and discretionary play on world consumer spending, I feel like any weakness in numbers will hurt the stock badly, and I think that's a likely outcome in the short/medium term.
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Trimmed a little from any overweight positions. I had hoped to add to RXRX and maybe pick up another position at close but my buying power has not refreshed from the sells so I might be stuck through the weekend with 15% cash. The risk is probably to the upside given the "1st" deal may be struck imminently, but offset by shockingly higher interest rates and a sell-down all of US-denominated assets until then.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Please pay extra attention to 2, 5, 10, 30 year yield...that IS where the whole story IS....loss of confidence IS OBVIOUS.....
Bear market IS very PAINFUL.....
Saleem
Hi Salem and Stocktrader,
Thank you for the update..
Simon
Post a Comment