Sunday, June 28, 2026

US stock market facing " unfriendly investing cycle "

 After all the momentum we have witnessed, suddenly something is scaring most participant, It IS the scenario of " higher interest rates staying higher much much longer "

High interest rates have killed most bull market, this time, It may be NO DIFFERENT....

Technically many so called leaders all " pulling back 12% or so " NOT a pretty picture....

10% down is a correction...

20% down is a bear market....

By the time its all said & done 20% pullback is quite doable.....high probability

YES...you can do quick trade here & there BUT DO NOT live in HOPE.....

I have reduced my exposure " substantially " & removed more than house money.....

Here is how my last week ended :

Last week Down 23.41%

YTD               UP 88.71%

Here is my weighting on 42% exposure :

AMDL                 45.36%

MRVU                34.88%

SNDU                 19.76%

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS ....last week I had record number of BLOG visitors 76,000+++ in one day.....Thanks to all new visitors....

Saleem

7 comments:

Stock Rookie said...

Hi Salem & Stocktrader,

Thank you both for keeping this blogs active. Without you both, it will never happened. Thank you both & much appreciated!

Simon

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Tough week but an amazing year so far still!

Good to play with house money :)

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Thank you for the kind words!

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Last week: -2.17% (YTD: +11.38%)
Portfolio Leaders: KRUS TWST BODI
Portfolio Laggards: NNOX RKLB AMBQ

In a down week for the major averages, the small caps outperformed, and so did some of the portfolio components, but not enough to carry the week. I think small cap leadership is a very good sign for the markets as broadening is finally truly here and some of the mega winners on the year can rest in a healthy way. The decline in oil/gas prices has put the consumer back in the spotlight, and many of those names excelled last week. I am happy with the composition of the portfolio, wondering only about a few laggards (NNOX CODA) and always searching for new names and ideas to add. As we approach earnings season again, I'm sure a lot of focus will be on the mega-cap names, but the small names could provide the most upside.

Portfolio: AEVA KRUS BFLY RKLB TWST BC AMBQ NN BODI CODA NNOX, cash 0%

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Sold TWST @ 98.59 to take profits

After a 100% run in the last 6 weeks, I think the stock has caught up well enough to the immediate prospects. These aren't chip stocks where there is some massive investment cycle happening. I hope to revisit on a pullback or sideways action for a while.

Bought PONY @ 6.96

A stock with explosive revenue growth now and upcoming, but having lost the interest of investors, I will try it again here for a potential 2nd half rebound. There's not much downside risk, so that makes the trade favorable in my eyes.

Stocktrader

Stock Rookie said...

Hi Stocktrader,
Nice to book profits with TWST & buy low on PONY.

Simon

Stocks100 said...

Hi Stocktrader,

Good luck with PONY..

Saleem