Markets are still showing resiliency by drawing many buyers who missed this rally.....
S&P 500 & Dow closed @ the highest level of 09 on heavy volume.....
Nasdaq took a rest and was down 5.80 points or .29% on less volume.....
Gold ,Oil & CAD were on a roll..Canadian $ had the highest close in 9 months against US$...92.81 cents US buys 1 CAD.....
Solar stocks took it on the chin today ..thanks to FSLR which was Down $19.16 or 11.04%.....
I will list buy rated stocks by 10 AM Saturday.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Friday, July 31, 2009
Month-end buying still @ play .......
Indices are green after dipping below......
Month-end buying is still @ play...majority of ME buying was done yesterday.....
Next week...market MAY need a breather......
Close MAY see softness today.....
Keep an eye on High of yesterday & today...which MAY give technical signal as to the health of this market....some key numbers to keep in mind for strategic selling & buying.....
S&P 500 2009 high so far 996.68...today's high so far 992.78.....low today 982.85....any breach of these number will either means higher highs or lower lows?????RSI 71.37....
Gold UP $14.20
OIL UP 99 cents to $67.93
Canadian $ UP 30 tick near 9 month HIGH.....
Portfolio is SOL,TLM.....
@ 12.17 following are among GREEN in my watch list :
AAPL,RIMM,PALM,TLM,GNK,EGO,SLW,AGU,FMCN,
KGC,TKC,CTRN,CCJ,WYNN,MA,ABX,GG,SNE,VAR,GS,
IBN,GOOG,FWLT.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Month-end buying is still @ play...majority of ME buying was done yesterday.....
Next week...market MAY need a breather......
Close MAY see softness today.....
Keep an eye on High of yesterday & today...which MAY give technical signal as to the health of this market....some key numbers to keep in mind for strategic selling & buying.....
S&P 500 2009 high so far 996.68...today's high so far 992.78.....low today 982.85....any breach of these number will either means higher highs or lower lows?????RSI 71.37....
Gold UP $14.20
OIL UP 99 cents to $67.93
Canadian $ UP 30 tick near 9 month HIGH.....
Portfolio is SOL,TLM.....
@ 12.17 following are among GREEN in my watch list :
AAPL,RIMM,PALM,TLM,GNK,EGO,SLW,AGU,FMCN,
KGC,TKC,CTRN,CCJ,WYNN,MA,ABX,GG,SNE,VAR,GS,
IBN,GOOG,FWLT.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Thursday, July 30, 2009
All Indices closed @ 09 HIGH...NICE !!!
Market surprised "so-called experts" by exploding higher......to New 09 HIGHS .....
Bearish call lately has been a "crowded trade".....
SO..never follow the crowd..they are HERD and dictated by media...which IS a great "contrary indicator"
So...what is in the store now ???
Let us analyze RSI for popular indices as of close today :
S&P 500 71.07
Dow 71.88
Nasdaq 73.54
Please keep in mind that we were much higher intraday in RSI.......
I always pay lot of attention as to how we close in indices or stocks...today was NOT technically healthy as we closed near LOW of the day.....
Volume was heavy in all indices...a sign of month end window dressing....It is long weekend in Canada so there will be light volume from Toronto area on Friday...as TSX is closed on Monday.
I will pay lot of attention as to how we close on Friday also.......
Risk/reward ratio is NOT compelling right now.......for trading purpose...thus my decision to "substantially reduce my exposure to market"
AH Futures are minor RED...
AH Nikkei is UP 1.46%
AH FSLR ER was a beat on EPS & Sales but made cautious comments about business trend...Stock Down $6.50 on 2.52 million shares..almost equal to day volume..most solar stocks were down in sympathy AH...
BLOG does not give buy or sell.
Saleem
Bearish call lately has been a "crowded trade".....
SO..never follow the crowd..they are HERD and dictated by media...which IS a great "contrary indicator"
So...what is in the store now ???
Let us analyze RSI for popular indices as of close today :
S&P 500 71.07
Dow 71.88
Nasdaq 73.54
Please keep in mind that we were much higher intraday in RSI.......
I always pay lot of attention as to how we close in indices or stocks...today was NOT technically healthy as we closed near LOW of the day.....
Volume was heavy in all indices...a sign of month end window dressing....It is long weekend in Canada so there will be light volume from Toronto area on Friday...as TSX is closed on Monday.
I will pay lot of attention as to how we close on Friday also.......
Risk/reward ratio is NOT compelling right now.......for trading purpose...thus my decision to "substantially reduce my exposure to market"
AH Futures are minor RED...
AH Nikkei is UP 1.46%
AH FSLR ER was a beat on EPS & Sales but made cautious comments about business trend...Stock Down $6.50 on 2.52 million shares..almost equal to day volume..most solar stocks were down in sympathy AH...
BLOG does not give buy or sell.
Saleem
Sold RIMM & IPI.....
Sold RIMM & IPI to take advantage of higher markets...
Portfolio is SOL & TLM.....
NOW...have trading emphasis on a daily basis with much smaller exposure.....
All of this to ensure my personal comfort level with market exposure which has been REDUCED big time.........
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Portfolio is SOL & TLM.....
NOW...have trading emphasis on a daily basis with much smaller exposure.....
All of this to ensure my personal comfort level with market exposure which has been REDUCED big time.........
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
New 09 HIGHS in all indices....NICE !!!!
Markets are making new 09 highs.....
Gold UP $8.00
Oil UP $2.91 to $66.26.....experts were making confident prediction of $55???
Canadian $ UP 59 tick against US$.....
In my portfolio :
Sold GNK...
Portfolio is IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM....
Most stocks are UP.....
@ 12.28 following stocks in my watch list are RED :
MRVL,PMCS,GNK,C,BRCD,CTRN,VAR....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Gold UP $8.00
Oil UP $2.91 to $66.26.....experts were making confident prediction of $55???
Canadian $ UP 59 tick against US$.....
In my portfolio :
Sold GNK...
Portfolio is IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM....
Most stocks are UP.....
@ 12.28 following stocks in my watch list are RED :
MRVL,PMCS,GNK,C,BRCD,CTRN,VAR....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Indices completed "narrowest of consolidation"...NICE !!!
Most traders are completely blown away by markets ability to close near 9 month high 3 days in a row????...all simplistic conclusions about this market had them all set for a full fledge correction of 5% or MORE or RETEST of LOWS as championed by many on CNBC.....
Some pundits have been changing their deadlines on a weekly basis for "dire results"...they are hoping & praying that they will be right sometime in a span of 6 months of "wrong predictions"..thus a need to move their dates forward....
Here is how the indices have done since we hit 9 months high...all numbers are based after today's close :
Dow Jones 09 HIGH 9124.91..close today 9070.72...Down a whopping 54.19 points or .59%..RSI 69.39
S&P500 09 HIGH 982.49..close today 975.15 Down a whopping 7.34 points or.75%..RSI 67.86
Nasdaq 09 High 1979.34..close today 1967.76 Down a whopping 11.58 points or .59%..RSI 71.55
The above stat proves that lot of predictions which are made daily about markets are "crapshoot"....when markets do not go down against all odds...then there IS a good CHANCE that it will "explode on the UPside"
AH GNK ER was a beat on both Sales & EPS.....they are suspending dividend & shares buyback as part of their covenant.....CC @ 830 AM.....
AH V reported a beat & guide Higher...but it is Down $1.01 ???
AH Futures are GREEN....
AH Gold & Silver are UP...
AH Nikkei UP .15% so far....
Green stocks included NDAQ,ICE,MA,C,BAC....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Some pundits have been changing their deadlines on a weekly basis for "dire results"...they are hoping & praying that they will be right sometime in a span of 6 months of "wrong predictions"..thus a need to move their dates forward....
Here is how the indices have done since we hit 9 months high...all numbers are based after today's close :
Dow Jones 09 HIGH 9124.91..close today 9070.72...Down a whopping 54.19 points or .59%..RSI 69.39
S&P500 09 HIGH 982.49..close today 975.15 Down a whopping 7.34 points or.75%..RSI 67.86
Nasdaq 09 High 1979.34..close today 1967.76 Down a whopping 11.58 points or .59%..RSI 71.55
The above stat proves that lot of predictions which are made daily about markets are "crapshoot"....when markets do not go down against all odds...then there IS a good CHANCE that it will "explode on the UPside"
AH GNK ER was a beat on both Sales & EPS.....they are suspending dividend & shares buyback as part of their covenant.....CC @ 830 AM.....
AH V reported a beat & guide Higher...but it is Down $1.01 ???
AH Futures are GREEN....
AH Gold & Silver are UP...
AH Nikkei UP .15% so far....
Green stocks included NDAQ,ICE,MA,C,BAC....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Indices completing "sideways move".......
Indices are following a "predictable pattern of sideways movement for being @ nine month HIGH"
We needed to stay @ nine month high level for 3 days in a holding pattern....this allowed naysayers to get out while "smart money was buying in every weak open"
I am extremely impressed with market TAPE.....9 month high & NO pullback by close for 3 days......
SO...it pays to "listen to the message of the market"
Never fight the TAPE......
Oil is getting clobbered down $3.84 to $63.39
Gold Down $12.....
Canadian $ Down 44 tick..in sympathy with Oil.....
All European markets closed UP today DAX UP 1.87%...while "super-computers were on a sell mode in US..FLASH trading is LEGAL"
Portfolio is GNK(reports @ 4.00 CC Thursday AM),IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM(reported 6 cents EPS vs consensus of 7 cents)
@ 12.15 following are green in my watch list :
EGO,C,ICE,NDAQ,FSLR,ISRG,SNE,VAR.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
We needed to stay @ nine month high level for 3 days in a holding pattern....this allowed naysayers to get out while "smart money was buying in every weak open"
I am extremely impressed with market TAPE.....9 month high & NO pullback by close for 3 days......
SO...it pays to "listen to the message of the market"
Never fight the TAPE......
Oil is getting clobbered down $3.84 to $63.39
Gold Down $12.....
Canadian $ Down 44 tick..in sympathy with Oil.....
All European markets closed UP today DAX UP 1.87%...while "super-computers were on a sell mode in US..FLASH trading is LEGAL"
Portfolio is GNK(reports @ 4.00 CC Thursday AM),IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM(reported 6 cents EPS vs consensus of 7 cents)
@ 12.15 following are green in my watch list :
EGO,C,ICE,NDAQ,FSLR,ISRG,SNE,VAR.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Follow the TAPE..NOT pundits......
This is NOT 2008 market where trading out was the only game in town..as markets kept going down ,down & more down....
This IS a market which IS going UP,UP & more UP......
So called pundits have been predicting sharp correction since March lows on a daily basis....they never give you a "convincing reason as to why this dreaded pullback is IMMINENT"
Market alway's "looks ahead"
Market TAPE has been "predicting a much stronger recovery" than highly paid strategist who keeps talking about a W recovery......
I only listen to the message of the market & follow the TAPE......
Market TAPE has been very strong ......
So ..did you get any "convincing reason" from sage Cramer yesterday that this market is going down 5%...any stat or any chart or sentiment analysis..NO..just I SAY SO.......
Nasdaq closed GREEN on good volume...
Dow & S&P 500 almost made it into green on heavy buying......
As reader of this BLOG knows that the trend of this market is decidedly higher....we ARE @ new highs in RSI in the last 4 months in every indices...even higher RSI is telling you something HAS changed for the better in market......
Yes there will be pullback when all the "doomsayers will say market is OK"...then I will sell...for that RSI has to enter 80.....
Also keep checking CMF..which is @ highest in Nasdaq & close to high in S&P 500 & Dow.....
When there will be a correction then a "new support point will form"
Until then.... enjoy the ride UP......
Stay diversified in many sectors.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
This IS a market which IS going UP,UP & more UP......
So called pundits have been predicting sharp correction since March lows on a daily basis....they never give you a "convincing reason as to why this dreaded pullback is IMMINENT"
Market alway's "looks ahead"
Market TAPE has been "predicting a much stronger recovery" than highly paid strategist who keeps talking about a W recovery......
I only listen to the message of the market & follow the TAPE......
Market TAPE has been very strong ......
So ..did you get any "convincing reason" from sage Cramer yesterday that this market is going down 5%...any stat or any chart or sentiment analysis..NO..just I SAY SO.......
Nasdaq closed GREEN on good volume...
Dow & S&P 500 almost made it into green on heavy buying......
As reader of this BLOG knows that the trend of this market is decidedly higher....we ARE @ new highs in RSI in the last 4 months in every indices...even higher RSI is telling you something HAS changed for the better in market......
Yes there will be pullback when all the "doomsayers will say market is OK"...then I will sell...for that RSI has to enter 80.....
Also keep checking CMF..which is @ highest in Nasdaq & close to high in S&P 500 & Dow.....
When there will be a correction then a "new support point will form"
Until then.... enjoy the ride UP......
Stay diversified in many sectors.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Indices down .63% to .93%..so far.....
Markets are down less than 1% on drop in consumer confidence....media certainly is NOT helping .....
The question MAY be as to WHY we are DOWN.....because "they COULD"...expecting a better close HIGHER than LOW of the day......
In this media driven negativity environment..you must think long-term & BUY weakness..that is what I am doing....
Gold Down $14.00
Oil Down $1.72 to $66.66
Canadian $ Down 59 tick to 91.86 against US$ after hitting 93 cents in overnight trade....
In my portfolio :
Added 6% SOL paid 15 cents above low of the day..it is my 2nd largest position 22.05% (real time) & my 6th purchase....
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM.....
GNK reports Wednesday consensus $90.67 million in Sales & EPS of $1.08..expecting a beat in EPS.....
TLM reports Wednesday consensus Sales $1.45 Billion & EPS 8 cents..expecting in-line results...
@ 12.12 following are among green in my watch list :
MRVL,C,SOHU,ISRG,VAR,GE,NDN....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
The question MAY be as to WHY we are DOWN.....because "they COULD"...expecting a better close HIGHER than LOW of the day......
In this media driven negativity environment..you must think long-term & BUY weakness..that is what I am doing....
Gold Down $14.00
Oil Down $1.72 to $66.66
Canadian $ Down 59 tick to 91.86 against US$ after hitting 93 cents in overnight trade....
In my portfolio :
Added 6% SOL paid 15 cents above low of the day..it is my 2nd largest position 22.05% (real time) & my 6th purchase....
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM.....
GNK reports Wednesday consensus $90.67 million in Sales & EPS of $1.08..expecting a beat in EPS.....
TLM reports Wednesday consensus Sales $1.45 Billion & EPS 8 cents..expecting in-line results...
@ 12.12 following are among green in my watch list :
MRVL,C,SOHU,ISRG,VAR,GE,NDN....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Monday, July 27, 2009
Green close in all indices ....NICE!!!!!
All indices closing in Green.....
Highest close for Dow & S&P 500....
RSI are as follows in Indices :
Dow 72.00
Nasdaq 73.14
S&P 500 72.26
Mad Money is predicting a pullback of only 3% to 5%.....these % do NOT qualify as correction..these % pullback are routine to mark time for another leg UP....Every day there IS a pullback of 3% or more in 1000 of stocks...so where is this UNUSUAL event coming from???
This IS a major bull market in the making...staying out will result in major missed opportunity...stay diversified in many sectors..which normally checks some of the downside on a daily basis..correction or no correction......
As it is a new bull market ....I do NOT know where will be the next correction which is defined as close to 10% pullback.....there is a chance that we MAY get rotating corrections in sectors/stocks..which is happening on a daily basis since March LOWS......
AH TSL announced a shelf offering of 4.6 million shares which is a dilution of 15.56% on a current TOS of 29.58 million shares...stocks normally trades close to pricing of these offerings..like STP & then moves sharply UP....Pricing is not announced yet...but it is normally done @ discount ...
AH Futures are small RED....
AH Nikkei is down .22%
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Highest close for Dow & S&P 500....
RSI are as follows in Indices :
Dow 72.00
Nasdaq 73.14
S&P 500 72.26
Mad Money is predicting a pullback of only 3% to 5%.....these % do NOT qualify as correction..these % pullback are routine to mark time for another leg UP....Every day there IS a pullback of 3% or more in 1000 of stocks...so where is this UNUSUAL event coming from???
This IS a major bull market in the making...staying out will result in major missed opportunity...stay diversified in many sectors..which normally checks some of the downside on a daily basis..correction or no correction......
As it is a new bull market ....I do NOT know where will be the next correction which is defined as close to 10% pullback.....there is a chance that we MAY get rotating corrections in sectors/stocks..which is happening on a daily basis since March LOWS......
AH TSL announced a shelf offering of 4.6 million shares which is a dilution of 15.56% on a current TOS of 29.58 million shares...stocks normally trades close to pricing of these offerings..like STP & then moves sharply UP....Pricing is not announced yet...but it is normally done @ discount ...
AH Futures are small RED....
AH Nikkei is down .22%
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 & Dow went to new 09 high intraday...NICE !!!
Markets are trying to digest gains from last two weeks......
S&P 500 & Dow both went to new 09 highs today..which IS technically significant....
RSI on all three indices are in 69 area.....
Gold UP 60 cents
Oil UP 12 cents
Canadian $ UP 6 tick after hitting new high since October 08....
In my portfolio :
Added 14% more RIMM..paid 64 cents above low of the day....it is 35.36% of my portfolio...
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM....
@ 12.19 following stocks are among green in my watch list:
RIMM,IPI,GNK,PALM,WYNN,MA,BIDU,LVS,EGLE,
EGO,SLW,STP,FSLR,FWLT,GE,AGU....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 & Dow both went to new 09 highs today..which IS technically significant....
RSI on all three indices are in 69 area.....
Gold UP 60 cents
Oil UP 12 cents
Canadian $ UP 6 tick after hitting new high since October 08....
In my portfolio :
Added 14% more RIMM..paid 64 cents above low of the day....it is 35.36% of my portfolio...
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM....
@ 12.19 following stocks are among green in my watch list:
RIMM,IPI,GNK,PALM,WYNN,MA,BIDU,LVS,EGLE,
EGO,SLW,STP,FSLR,FWLT,GE,AGU....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Markets are "ready for a major move UP"
Friday.... all indices gave a clear signal that this market does NOT want to consolidate even for one day in the current stage of UPTREND....
CMF was @ strongest level on Friday also...means smart money pouring in...
What about Dumb money..ala followers of bears & their spokesperson Art Cashin...they are being hit very hard where it hurts....in their equity...which by my account...they must be in deep hole since March or Since early July correction......
July pullback barely lasted 3 weeks based on questions about strength of recovery.......
Answers..... about the strength of recovery is coming fast & furious from China,Canada,Germany,Great Britain and even in our in the dumps housing market.....
So.... markets are Saluting the positive avalanche of economic data worldwide by kicking the old resistance into a "piece of cake & you can eat it too"
So..Bears have NOTHING to put their hat on anymore...WEAK economy was their last "big money making machine"
Bears were also leaning on "bad earnings reports" to PUSH their thesis to SHORT & create PANIC among bulls.......
Guess what...
Bulls... KNEW that except GS mastery in trading & being ahead of the curve that financials ER will be BAD as expected by them.......
Bulls.... also KNEW that most Tech will kill estimates for both TOP & BOTTOM line & guidance will be better than expected/past trends..so they kept buying on any weakness..
Shorts took "too long" to see or ANTICIPATE a changing trend in economy or earnings picture.......
NOW...that the whole world KNOWS about better economy & better earnings going forward...bears & their spokesperson are "throwing their white towel" on Friday......
This surrender to markets TAPE @ ABOVE breakout levels...will create a stampede of "short covering & reallocation of several TRILLIONS in a popular asset class known as stocks......
This reallocation in the bull case for stocks will takes US very "quickly" into a 10%+ gain in all indices.......from Friday's close.....
So..... S&P 500 which closed @ 979.26 will easily JUMP to 1080 in a hurry ..a further gain of 101 S&P 500 points or 10.3%.....similar or better gain for Nasdaq & Dow are also expected......
Most sectors will participate in this ongoing rally..some MORE than others...so it will be PRUDENT to DIVERSIFY in many sectors......
Also make sure your $ allocation in equities is in-line with your comfort level......
Here is my allocations & sectors as of Friday's close:
GNK 11.65% Shipping
IPI 10.30% Ag Potash
SOL 23.55% Solar
RIMM 32.30% Tech Smartphone
TLM 22.20% Oil producer
My rationale for above pick/allocation % is that I think most of the above stocks are "undervalued relative to their peers"
As I am bullish about the current trend of the TAPE going forward..I am @ the same $ investment as I had back in June of 08 when S&P 500 was above 1400....after S&P 500 touched 1576.09 way back in October of 07......little nostalgia CAN give you the "big picture"
I will continue to buy more stocks based on my "relative valuation metrics"..means buy those stocks/sectors which are lagging still.....RSI is my gospel for buying/selling position.....switching to better value is my mantra......
So...based on TAPE...we are heading "north"......
BDI should pick UP in a hurry also...
US$ should continue to go LOWER...
Gold,Siver,base metals are on the verge of major UPtrend...copper is the-leader.....
Techs will be the darling of investors/traders...Q4 is going to exceed all expectations...Christmas will be a major catalyst......
Always buy..what you know & understand well...do NOT buy the HOT stock of the day as relative values are always HIDDEN from headlines...once they make headlines majority of the gains are already in the bag.......
Good luck in your OWN strategy.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
CMF was @ strongest level on Friday also...means smart money pouring in...
What about Dumb money..ala followers of bears & their spokesperson Art Cashin...they are being hit very hard where it hurts....in their equity...which by my account...they must be in deep hole since March or Since early July correction......
July pullback barely lasted 3 weeks based on questions about strength of recovery.......
Answers..... about the strength of recovery is coming fast & furious from China,Canada,Germany,Great Britain and even in our in the dumps housing market.....
So.... markets are Saluting the positive avalanche of economic data worldwide by kicking the old resistance into a "piece of cake & you can eat it too"
So..Bears have NOTHING to put their hat on anymore...WEAK economy was their last "big money making machine"
Bears were also leaning on "bad earnings reports" to PUSH their thesis to SHORT & create PANIC among bulls.......
Guess what...
Bulls... KNEW that except GS mastery in trading & being ahead of the curve that financials ER will be BAD as expected by them.......
Bulls.... also KNEW that most Tech will kill estimates for both TOP & BOTTOM line & guidance will be better than expected/past trends..so they kept buying on any weakness..
Shorts took "too long" to see or ANTICIPATE a changing trend in economy or earnings picture.......
NOW...that the whole world KNOWS about better economy & better earnings going forward...bears & their spokesperson are "throwing their white towel" on Friday......
This surrender to markets TAPE @ ABOVE breakout levels...will create a stampede of "short covering & reallocation of several TRILLIONS in a popular asset class known as stocks......
This reallocation in the bull case for stocks will takes US very "quickly" into a 10%+ gain in all indices.......from Friday's close.....
So..... S&P 500 which closed @ 979.26 will easily JUMP to 1080 in a hurry ..a further gain of 101 S&P 500 points or 10.3%.....similar or better gain for Nasdaq & Dow are also expected......
Most sectors will participate in this ongoing rally..some MORE than others...so it will be PRUDENT to DIVERSIFY in many sectors......
Also make sure your $ allocation in equities is in-line with your comfort level......
Here is my allocations & sectors as of Friday's close:
GNK 11.65% Shipping
IPI 10.30% Ag Potash
SOL 23.55% Solar
RIMM 32.30% Tech Smartphone
TLM 22.20% Oil producer
My rationale for above pick/allocation % is that I think most of the above stocks are "undervalued relative to their peers"
As I am bullish about the current trend of the TAPE going forward..I am @ the same $ investment as I had back in June of 08 when S&P 500 was above 1400....after S&P 500 touched 1576.09 way back in October of 07......little nostalgia CAN give you the "big picture"
I will continue to buy more stocks based on my "relative valuation metrics"..means buy those stocks/sectors which are lagging still.....RSI is my gospel for buying/selling position.....switching to better value is my mantra......
So...based on TAPE...we are heading "north"......
BDI should pick UP in a hurry also...
US$ should continue to go LOWER...
Gold,Siver,base metals are on the verge of major UPtrend...copper is the-leader.....
Techs will be the darling of investors/traders...Q4 is going to exceed all expectations...Christmas will be a major catalyst......
Always buy..what you know & understand well...do NOT buy the HOT stock of the day as relative values are always HIDDEN from headlines...once they make headlines majority of the gains are already in the bag.......
Good luck in your OWN strategy.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Saturday, July 25, 2009
BUY rated stocks for MAJOR UP move in markets !!!!
Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.
STP,NXY,PMCS,SPWRA,IBKR,MTE,GOOG,BKI,
CAJ,ARAY,ALVR,ESLR,JASO,SOLR,XING,ROCK,
AAI,FIG,LDK,POT,SOL,TTM,VAR,WAG,WYN,YGE,
AA,CGA,IMO,TLM,CUTR,PCS,ENER.
Next post by 11 AM Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
STP,NXY,PMCS,SPWRA,IBKR,MTE,GOOG,BKI,
CAJ,ARAY,ALVR,ESLR,JASO,SOLR,XING,ROCK,
AAI,FIG,LDK,POT,SOL,TTM,VAR,WAG,WYN,YGE,
AA,CGA,IMO,TLM,CUTR,PCS,ENER.
Next post by 11 AM Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Friday, July 24, 2009
Highest close of 09 in S&P 500 & Dow...NICE !!!!
Today was all set to close weak.....BUT buyers were waiting AGAIN & took the market into Green close.....
Nasdaq came back but missed the green by barely 7 points.....
Nasdaq internals were extremely positive with advancing stocks clearly in the lead by 14 to 11..new 52 wk highs were also in the lead...
VIX made another lowest close of 09......
Big movers today included BIDU,GOOG,AAPL,STP,ISRG,SPWRA,ENER....
By 10 AM Saturday..I will post a list of buy rated stocks.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Nasdaq came back but missed the green by barely 7 points.....
Nasdaq internals were extremely positive with advancing stocks clearly in the lead by 14 to 11..new 52 wk highs were also in the lead...
VIX made another lowest close of 09......
Big movers today included BIDU,GOOG,AAPL,STP,ISRG,SPWRA,ENER....
By 10 AM Saturday..I will post a list of buy rated stocks.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Listen to the message of the market.......
Dow & S&P 500 are getting ready to turn GREEN......
Nasdaq MAY take a well deserved rest today.....
Selling was absorbed nicely by buyers...sign of a "bull market"
Gold Down $1.70
Oil UP 19 cents
Canadian $ UP 18 tick against US$...took recent highs this AM.....
In my portfolio :
Added 60% more SOL..paid 5 cents above low of the day..NICE $$$$
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM......
@ 12.14 following are green :
SOL,GNK,IPI,STP,CSUN,SLW,AAPL,PMCS,
SINA,WYNN,MA,BIDU,SPWRA,FSLR,ISRG,
GOOG....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Nasdaq MAY take a well deserved rest today.....
Selling was absorbed nicely by buyers...sign of a "bull market"
Gold Down $1.70
Oil UP 19 cents
Canadian $ UP 18 tick against US$...took recent highs this AM.....
In my portfolio :
Added 60% more SOL..paid 5 cents above low of the day..NICE $$$$
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM......
@ 12.14 following are green :
SOL,GNK,IPI,STP,CSUN,SLW,AAPL,PMCS,
SINA,WYNN,MA,BIDU,SPWRA,FSLR,ISRG,
GOOG....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Nasdaq makes it 12 UP days in a row.....NICE !!!
Markets were on a roll AGAIN......
Volume was heaviest in Nasdaq.....
Volume was heavier in Dow & S&P 500...
Internals were strongest in a long time.....
New 52 week HIGHS were highest in many months...
VIX closed @ new low.......
BUT......
MSFT & AMZN are READY to spoil this party?????
How much can these two companies Bad ER CAN cause damage ????
Before I answer that ....let me look @ RSI on major indices after close today....
Dow 71.05
S&P 500 70.91
Nasdaq 75.02
Nasdaq & Dow has highest RSI in last 4 months.....S&P 500 looks like close to highest level in last 4 months......
So ....what RSI reading MEANS......
It is telling me that this market is NOT ready to roll over ...... a pullback @ open for sure and MAY be a close LOWER on Friday..so RSI can come a little LOWER......I do NOT expect more than 4% pullback from HOD to LOW in this selling...which could be MAX 2 to 3 days......
CMF has been very strong..so we MAY get buying support even on Friday.......
As I have said MANY times...KNOW your stocks well...so you know where it IS in its trading range.....If in this selling on Friday ..your stocks is near support..then there is no reason to PANIC.....
So.... study the fundamentals & KNOW the support..trust me ..every stock has support point in a strong market...
AH Many ER were good SPWRA,PMCS,BIDU to name a few......
AH Futures are Down...
AH Nikkei is UP 1.26%....
AH Oil,Gold,Silver,CAD are all Down.....
Just remember...Markets are going UP to higher highs because ECONOMY is getting better..that will NOT change......
PS....was late in posting because I had to analyze many things for Friday......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Volume was heaviest in Nasdaq.....
Volume was heavier in Dow & S&P 500...
Internals were strongest in a long time.....
New 52 week HIGHS were highest in many months...
VIX closed @ new low.......
BUT......
MSFT & AMZN are READY to spoil this party?????
How much can these two companies Bad ER CAN cause damage ????
Before I answer that ....let me look @ RSI on major indices after close today....
Dow 71.05
S&P 500 70.91
Nasdaq 75.02
Nasdaq & Dow has highest RSI in last 4 months.....S&P 500 looks like close to highest level in last 4 months......
So ....what RSI reading MEANS......
It is telling me that this market is NOT ready to roll over ...... a pullback @ open for sure and MAY be a close LOWER on Friday..so RSI can come a little LOWER......I do NOT expect more than 4% pullback from HOD to LOW in this selling...which could be MAX 2 to 3 days......
CMF has been very strong..so we MAY get buying support even on Friday.......
As I have said MANY times...KNOW your stocks well...so you know where it IS in its trading range.....If in this selling on Friday ..your stocks is near support..then there is no reason to PANIC.....
So.... study the fundamentals & KNOW the support..trust me ..every stock has support point in a strong market...
AH Many ER were good SPWRA,PMCS,BIDU to name a few......
AH Futures are Down...
AH Nikkei is UP 1.26%....
AH Oil,Gold,Silver,CAD are all Down.....
Just remember...Markets are going UP to higher highs because ECONOMY is getting better..that will NOT change......
PS....was late in posting because I had to analyze many things for Friday......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Recession over in US & Canada.....NICE !!!!
Recession IS over in US & Canada already.......it ended in Q2....
Says WHO ???
Not Dr Roubini or any other economist in US.....
WHY ???
They are all busy giving interview on TV and agreeing with each other pointing out all NEGATIVES.....
When economist are in agreement...the REVERSE is happening....
So......
No more suspense......
US GDP will end UP growing in Q3.......
Who is doing all the important analysis for US economy????
An underpaid civil servant who happens to be Mark Carney, Governor Bank of Canada...he does NOT waste time on CNBC or dealing with politicians but busy earning a living daily......
Yes ......he announced an hour ago that recession has ended in Canada in Q2 also......
Yes he is predicting Canadian GDP will grow 1.3% in Q3..US will exceed that....3% GDP growth in Q4...Q1 & Q2 of 2010 will GROW 4%......in Canada
YES....you CAN take these predictions to the bank.....
I wish US stop all TV appearance by anyone who is part of US government or legislature...as all they do is NOT focus on their job.......
WELL......
US markets KNEW when US GDP will grow & WHEN US recession ended......
Markets are in uncharted territory making 09 HIGHS daily....& some traders are waiting to get an OK to invest from CNBC.....where they have employed anchors to READ a script given by their producers......
Canadian $ has taken off and is UP 1.08 cent against US$...near recent high.....
Oil UP $1.46 to $66.86......
All AG stocks are flying as they have agreed to sell Potash to India @ $460 per Ton..this is by the consortium Canpotex of POT,MOS...which will remove uncertainty of high pricing....volume is expected to explode.......
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM......
Most stocks are UP....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Says WHO ???
Not Dr Roubini or any other economist in US.....
WHY ???
They are all busy giving interview on TV and agreeing with each other pointing out all NEGATIVES.....
When economist are in agreement...the REVERSE is happening....
So......
No more suspense......
US GDP will end UP growing in Q3.......
Who is doing all the important analysis for US economy????
An underpaid civil servant who happens to be Mark Carney, Governor Bank of Canada...he does NOT waste time on CNBC or dealing with politicians but busy earning a living daily......
Yes ......he announced an hour ago that recession has ended in Canada in Q2 also......
Yes he is predicting Canadian GDP will grow 1.3% in Q3..US will exceed that....3% GDP growth in Q4...Q1 & Q2 of 2010 will GROW 4%......in Canada
YES....you CAN take these predictions to the bank.....
I wish US stop all TV appearance by anyone who is part of US government or legislature...as all they do is NOT focus on their job.......
WELL......
US markets KNEW when US GDP will grow & WHEN US recession ended......
Markets are in uncharted territory making 09 HIGHS daily....& some traders are waiting to get an OK to invest from CNBC.....where they have employed anchors to READ a script given by their producers......
Canadian $ has taken off and is UP 1.08 cent against US$...near recent high.....
Oil UP $1.46 to $66.86......
All AG stocks are flying as they have agreed to sell Potash to India @ $460 per Ton..this is by the consortium Canpotex of POT,MOS...which will remove uncertainty of high pricing....volume is expected to explode.......
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM......
Most stocks are UP....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
All indices hitting 09 Highs daily...NICE !!!!
All indices are showing incredible strength by hitting intraday new 09 highs even today......Dow & S&P 500 closed barely RED after 7 days of straight UP moves.....
Internals were way stronger than indices closing numbers......
Nasdaq closed UP 11 straight days.....not be taken lightly....
AH many ER came out SNDK,QCOM were greeted with selling...while EBAY & VMW were greeted with move UP.....
AH Futures are small RED.....
VIX closed @ 23.47 another lowest close......
In my portfolio :
Sold EGO...missed high of the day by 2 cents.....
Added 55% GNK.....
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM.....
Techs were strong today...
Internet gaming stocks from China went off the chart like NTES,SNDA in particular....
SO...it IS a stock pickers market...many stocks NOT seen or heard on CNBC.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Internals were way stronger than indices closing numbers......
Nasdaq closed UP 11 straight days.....not be taken lightly....
AH many ER came out SNDK,QCOM were greeted with selling...while EBAY & VMW were greeted with move UP.....
AH Futures are small RED.....
VIX closed @ 23.47 another lowest close......
In my portfolio :
Sold EGO...missed high of the day by 2 cents.....
Added 55% GNK.....
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM.....
Techs were strong today...
Internet gaming stocks from China went off the chart like NTES,SNDA in particular....
SO...it IS a stock pickers market...many stocks NOT seen or heard on CNBC.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Nasdaq green 11 days in a row...NICE !!!!
Nasdaq is UP for 11 days in a row......
S&P & Dow UP 8 days in a row.........
This market will remain "biggest nightmare for bears & shorts"..they are all checking their"dwindling head,shoulders & bank account"
There is a very old saying.....NEVER FIGHT THE TAPE.....TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.....i guess Art Cashin & his drinking buddies have forgotten how "bull markets are formed"
IF it behaves like a BULL market..it MUST be a BULL market.....
It IS never too late to LEARN where this market is heading...HIGHER beyond most targets.....
Gold UP $5.20
Oil UP 74 cents
Canadian $ UP 63 tick against US$......90.96 cents US for 1 CAD
In my portfolio :
SOLD MRVL...
Bought 40% more RIMM paid 38 cents higher than Low Of the Day...very NICE $$$$..RIMM is 37% of my portfolio.....
Portfolio is EGO,GNK,IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM.....
@ 12.15 following are among GREEN :
AAPL,RIMM,TLM,EGO,SLW,MRVL,SINA,GE,CCJ,
PALM,ISRG,NVDA,PMCS,KGC,C,CTRN,ICE,LULU,
WYNN,LVS,SOHU,GG....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P & Dow UP 8 days in a row.........
This market will remain "biggest nightmare for bears & shorts"..they are all checking their"dwindling head,shoulders & bank account"
There is a very old saying.....NEVER FIGHT THE TAPE.....TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.....i guess Art Cashin & his drinking buddies have forgotten how "bull markets are formed"
IF it behaves like a BULL market..it MUST be a BULL market.....
It IS never too late to LEARN where this market is heading...HIGHER beyond most targets.....
Gold UP $5.20
Oil UP 74 cents
Canadian $ UP 63 tick against US$......90.96 cents US for 1 CAD
In my portfolio :
SOLD MRVL...
Bought 40% more RIMM paid 38 cents higher than Low Of the Day...very NICE $$$$..RIMM is 37% of my portfolio.....
Portfolio is EGO,GNK,IPI,SOL,RIMM,TLM.....
@ 12.15 following are among GREEN :
AAPL,RIMM,TLM,EGO,SLW,MRVL,SINA,GE,CCJ,
PALM,ISRG,NVDA,PMCS,KGC,C,CTRN,ICE,LULU,
WYNN,LVS,SOHU,GG....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Nasdaq & Dow closed @ new 2009 HIGH.....
Markets are on a roll...Nasdaq made it 10 UP days in a row.......DOW & S&P 500 are real laggards..only 7 UP days in a row......
S&P 500 did go to a new 2009 HIGH but failed to close ......
AAPL as expected had a strong Sales & EPS above consensus..stock UP AH $6.89 on 8.05 million shares.....guidance as usual was below consensus but NOT as far below as before.....margins came in better @ 36.3% but they are guiding lower margin 34% for current Q which is Q4....
Solar stocks were on a tear....as China is showing major focus in Solar development for future energy needs....generous rebates & support for Solar industry...
Bulk Dry Shippers were also strong.....also due to China stimulus & GDP growth.....they need all the raw materials for their growth......
VIX closed @ 23.87....lowest close since LEH....
AH futures are mixed with Nasdaq in GREEN..Dow & S&P 500 minor RED.....
AH Nikkei Down .38%..so far
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 did go to a new 2009 HIGH but failed to close ......
AAPL as expected had a strong Sales & EPS above consensus..stock UP AH $6.89 on 8.05 million shares.....guidance as usual was below consensus but NOT as far below as before.....margins came in better @ 36.3% but they are guiding lower margin 34% for current Q which is Q4....
Solar stocks were on a tear....as China is showing major focus in Solar development for future energy needs....generous rebates & support for Solar industry...
Bulk Dry Shippers were also strong.....also due to China stimulus & GDP growth.....they need all the raw materials for their growth......
VIX closed @ 23.87....lowest close since LEH....
AH futures are mixed with Nasdaq in GREEN..Dow & S&P 500 minor RED.....
AH Nikkei Down .38%..so far
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
DOW & S&P 500 went to "new HIGHS" before pulling back...
All indices made new 09 HIGHS before pulling back......
Pullback is healthy after 6 days of straight line RUNUP for Dow & S&P 500 & 9 days straight for Nasdaq......
Gold UP 10 cents
Oil UP $1.02
Canadian $ UP 16 tick against US$..Bank Of Canada predicting better 09 GDP<2.3%> & 3% Growth in GDP for 2010....Roubini should pay attention to worldwide GROWTH in 2010.....
In my portfolio :
Added 33% more RIMM
Portfolio is EGO,GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL,RIMM,TLM....
@ 12.08 following are green :
SOL,EGO,GNK,STP,POT,TSL,FMCN,BRCD,
EGLE,CMED,VLO,SPWRA,FSLR,ISRG,VAR,
RCI,AMTD,NDN.
AAPL ER AH..should give a lift to tech..expecting a huge BEAT $$$$
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Pullback is healthy after 6 days of straight line RUNUP for Dow & S&P 500 & 9 days straight for Nasdaq......
Gold UP 10 cents
Oil UP $1.02
Canadian $ UP 16 tick against US$..Bank Of Canada predicting better 09 GDP<2.3%> & 3% Growth in GDP for 2010....Roubini should pay attention to worldwide GROWTH in 2010.....
In my portfolio :
Added 33% more RIMM
Portfolio is EGO,GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL,RIMM,TLM....
@ 12.08 following are green :
SOL,EGO,GNK,STP,POT,TSL,FMCN,BRCD,
EGLE,CMED,VLO,SPWRA,FSLR,ISRG,VAR,
RCI,AMTD,NDN.
AAPL ER AH..should give a lift to tech..expecting a huge BEAT $$$$
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Monday, July 20, 2009
Strong close near HIGHS for all indices....NICE !!!
Nasdaq made another new high on higher volume than OE Friday....an impressive technical picture.....
Most indices have been UP in straight line since testing support.....
DOW & S&P 500 all set to go to new 09 HIGHS.....
AH TXN ER was a beat in both Sales & EPS..Guidance also was above consensus...BUT management made "cautionary remarks about Q3" stock down slightly AH...
AAPL reports AH Tuesday.....majority of traders are expecting selling on the news....I am on the contrary side that not only AAPL will BEAT but will guide "higher than consensus" which will propel the stock higher.....
AH futures are RED.....
AH Nikkei is UP 1.88% as it was closed on Monday....
AH Oil is UP 48 cents to $64.46....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Most indices have been UP in straight line since testing support.....
DOW & S&P 500 all set to go to new 09 HIGHS.....
AH TXN ER was a beat in both Sales & EPS..Guidance also was above consensus...BUT management made "cautionary remarks about Q3" stock down slightly AH...
AAPL reports AH Tuesday.....majority of traders are expecting selling on the news....I am on the contrary side that not only AAPL will BEAT but will guide "higher than consensus" which will propel the stock higher.....
AH futures are RED.....
AH Nikkei is UP 1.88% as it was closed on Monday....
AH Oil is UP 48 cents to $64.46....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Higher highs for Nasdaq....AGAIN...NICE !!!!
Nasdaq is hitting new highs for 2009 third day in a row.....
S&P 500 & Dow also marching in GREEN...both getting ready for taking out 2009 highs....
Gold UP $16.10
Oil UP 22 cents
Canadian $ UP 72 tick against US$.....trading @ 90.32 cents US$
In my portfolio :
Sold SLW...
Added 40% more IPI
Portfolio is EGO,GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL,RIMM,TLM.....
@ 12.08 following are RED.....
GNK,IPI,PALM,C,CTRN,BRCD,SPWRA,BAC,ENER,
CIEN,AMCC,AMTD,AGU,PMCS,NVDA,STX,GRMN.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 & Dow also marching in GREEN...both getting ready for taking out 2009 highs....
Gold UP $16.10
Oil UP 22 cents
Canadian $ UP 72 tick against US$.....trading @ 90.32 cents US$
In my portfolio :
Sold SLW...
Added 40% more IPI
Portfolio is EGO,GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL,RIMM,TLM.....
@ 12.08 following are RED.....
GNK,IPI,PALM,C,CTRN,BRCD,SPWRA,BAC,ENER,
CIEN,AMCC,AMTD,AGU,PMCS,NVDA,STX,GRMN.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Sunday, July 19, 2009
How HIGH can we go in this RUNUP???? !!!!
Markets have turned UP with stronger volume...which is a good thing.....
The question IS.....what has triggered this latest RUNUP.....
Technicians & bears faithful spokesperson Art Cashin was harping on an imminent disaster by 17th of July in markets..translation ...we were suppose to hit major downtrend and make lower LOWS?????
BUT.....we have closed @ new yearly highs on Nasdaq back to back right on "opposite cue for 17th of July"......
SO...does it pay to listen to CNBC???
I am afraid NOT......
It has cost most of the traders HUGE "missed opportunity" as CNBC keeps bringing "the worst commentator before market opens"
Art Cashin of UBS has become "the biggest Joke on CNBC".......
I do NOT have CNBC in my TV lineup..I check some of the segment through Internet ..because they give me the biggest CONTRARY indicators......
Now back to where indices are headed......???
The biggest tool which I use is RSI......
It has given ME the ONLY reliable indicator to trade from......
I interpret RSI based on the economic trendlines...which means as the economy improves RSI will have higher highs and higher lows......
So..WHY did we go to such a lower low read on RSI????
Because markets always RETEST support after a major move UP........which we completed week of July 10th......RSI went down to below 40 which was lowest in last 4 months..many stocks retreated to their support level in this RETEST......
This RETEST made a solid base to rally from AGAIN......
Before going into where the markets are heading..it IS important to be a BELIEVER in any form of technical indicator..be it MACD,Bollinger Band or many other indicators....but it IS important to KNOW the changing RANGE & the fundamental reason as to WHY we MAY go LOWER on the reading or HIGHER......
Based on my OWN interpretation of RSI & background take on economy & traders sentiments...which IS an ART not a science...we are heading HIGHER on RSI & Markets......
Generally when we hit RSI 30 on Indices..it IS a BUY and when we hit 60 it is a sell......but we are going to go Higher in RSI beyond 60???? currently we are @ 61.54 in S&P 500......
So what is the prediction for all indices.....based on www.stockcharts.com as of Friday close:
S&P 500 target 1085
Dow target 10,100
Nasdaq target 2190
So if we take Friday closing number the above prediction is implying a move of :
S&P 500 144.62 points or 15.38%
Dow 1356.06 points or 15.5%
Nasdaq 303.39 points or 16.08%
NOW ..the problem with prediction like the above....it does NOT happen in straight line.....
You must KNOW your strategy well...stocks & indices go through resistance & support.....& they do mark time.....
I do expect the indices to make higher HIGHS in this RUNUP...all of them are set to do so....but above 70 in RSI..a "cautionary approach is HIGHLY recommended"
Markets OVERDO on UP move also which IS hard to predict......
Markets are looking AHEAD all the time.....sometimes market KNOWS more than us mortal souls...
Markets COULD be looking @ strong Q4.....which implies strong order trend in Q3..where we are NOW......
So do NOT be surprised @ sudden burst in indices........
Based on my SIMPLISTIC calculations.....I will not be surprised to see S&P 500 @ 1043 in this RUNUP which implies a move UP of 102.62 or 10.91%.....before consolidation sets in.....a similar or better % move should be expected in Dow & Nasdaq.....
So..based on my "simplistic calculations"........how do you play this RUNUP????
Always KNOW what you are buying based on FA/TA..look for relative attractiveness..means.... is your stock ready to move UP compare to others in the same sector as they have lagged the leaders....a very important analysis...or you are comfortable taking higher risk by chasing the leaders......
No matter what you do remain DIVERSIFIED in different sectors......
Not all sectors move on a daily basis so you NEED exposure in strong & WEAK sectors to OPTIMIZE your strategy:
I have done my strategy based on my comfort level & here is the $ allocation & sectors :
EGO Gold 4.04%
GNK Shipping 9.00%
IPI Potash 8.50%
MRVL Tech 11.47%
SOL Solar 16.21%
RIMM Smartphone/Tech 20.63%
SLW Silver 3.70%
TLM Oil 26.45%
Please do your OWN homework based on your risk tolerance & comfort level.
Markets are extremely unpredictable & CAN correct anytime without any KNOWN reason..so KNOW your EXIT strategy beforehand.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
The question IS.....what has triggered this latest RUNUP.....
Technicians & bears faithful spokesperson Art Cashin was harping on an imminent disaster by 17th of July in markets..translation ...we were suppose to hit major downtrend and make lower LOWS?????
BUT.....we have closed @ new yearly highs on Nasdaq back to back right on "opposite cue for 17th of July"......
SO...does it pay to listen to CNBC???
I am afraid NOT......
It has cost most of the traders HUGE "missed opportunity" as CNBC keeps bringing "the worst commentator before market opens"
Art Cashin of UBS has become "the biggest Joke on CNBC".......
I do NOT have CNBC in my TV lineup..I check some of the segment through Internet ..because they give me the biggest CONTRARY indicators......
Now back to where indices are headed......???
The biggest tool which I use is RSI......
It has given ME the ONLY reliable indicator to trade from......
I interpret RSI based on the economic trendlines...which means as the economy improves RSI will have higher highs and higher lows......
So..WHY did we go to such a lower low read on RSI????
Because markets always RETEST support after a major move UP........which we completed week of July 10th......RSI went down to below 40 which was lowest in last 4 months..many stocks retreated to their support level in this RETEST......
This RETEST made a solid base to rally from AGAIN......
Before going into where the markets are heading..it IS important to be a BELIEVER in any form of technical indicator..be it MACD,Bollinger Band or many other indicators....but it IS important to KNOW the changing RANGE & the fundamental reason as to WHY we MAY go LOWER on the reading or HIGHER......
Based on my OWN interpretation of RSI & background take on economy & traders sentiments...which IS an ART not a science...we are heading HIGHER on RSI & Markets......
Generally when we hit RSI 30 on Indices..it IS a BUY and when we hit 60 it is a sell......but we are going to go Higher in RSI beyond 60???? currently we are @ 61.54 in S&P 500......
So what is the prediction for all indices.....based on www.stockcharts.com as of Friday close:
S&P 500 target 1085
Dow target 10,100
Nasdaq target 2190
So if we take Friday closing number the above prediction is implying a move of :
S&P 500 144.62 points or 15.38%
Dow 1356.06 points or 15.5%
Nasdaq 303.39 points or 16.08%
NOW ..the problem with prediction like the above....it does NOT happen in straight line.....
You must KNOW your strategy well...stocks & indices go through resistance & support.....& they do mark time.....
I do expect the indices to make higher HIGHS in this RUNUP...all of them are set to do so....but above 70 in RSI..a "cautionary approach is HIGHLY recommended"
Markets OVERDO on UP move also which IS hard to predict......
Markets are looking AHEAD all the time.....sometimes market KNOWS more than us mortal souls...
Markets COULD be looking @ strong Q4.....which implies strong order trend in Q3..where we are NOW......
So do NOT be surprised @ sudden burst in indices........
Based on my SIMPLISTIC calculations.....I will not be surprised to see S&P 500 @ 1043 in this RUNUP which implies a move UP of 102.62 or 10.91%.....before consolidation sets in.....a similar or better % move should be expected in Dow & Nasdaq.....
So..based on my "simplistic calculations"........how do you play this RUNUP????
Always KNOW what you are buying based on FA/TA..look for relative attractiveness..means.... is your stock ready to move UP compare to others in the same sector as they have lagged the leaders....a very important analysis...or you are comfortable taking higher risk by chasing the leaders......
No matter what you do remain DIVERSIFIED in different sectors......
Not all sectors move on a daily basis so you NEED exposure in strong & WEAK sectors to OPTIMIZE your strategy:
I have done my strategy based on my comfort level & here is the $ allocation & sectors :
EGO Gold 4.04%
GNK Shipping 9.00%
IPI Potash 8.50%
MRVL Tech 11.47%
SOL Solar 16.21%
RIMM Smartphone/Tech 20.63%
SLW Silver 3.70%
TLM Oil 26.45%
Please do your OWN homework based on your risk tolerance & comfort level.
Markets are extremely unpredictable & CAN correct anytime without any KNOWN reason..so KNOW your EXIT strategy beforehand.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Saturday, July 18, 2009
BUY rated stocks for "higher highs in indices"
Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.
TLM,RIMM,MRVL,GNK,IPI,EGO,SLW,PCZ,AUY,
KGC,AAPL,SWIR,LEN,NVDA,ANN,CSCO,JCP,ZRAN,
HIG,DIOD,ENER,ERIC,SNCR,ABX,HAO,IBN,STV,SU,
TSL,VIP,PAL.
Next post by 10 AM Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
TLM,RIMM,MRVL,GNK,IPI,EGO,SLW,PCZ,AUY,
KGC,AAPL,SWIR,LEN,NVDA,ANN,CSCO,JCP,ZRAN,
HIG,DIOD,ENER,ERIC,SNCR,ABX,HAO,IBN,STV,SU,
TSL,VIP,PAL.
Next post by 10 AM Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Friday, July 17, 2009
Another higher high close for Nasdaq since March..NICE !!!
Dow & Nasdaq ignored OE & closed green.....
Nasdaq closed @ a new high since March lows.....
Dow is within striking distance of making higher highs since March also....
same goes for S&P 500....when all indices make higher HIGHS ..pay attention....
VIX closed @ 24.34 Down 4.25%......
Stocks are doing their rotations within each sector..sign of a "very strong bull market TAPE"
Gold,Oil & other commodities are on a roll....another sign of "turn in economy"
Some stocks were subjected to OE manipulation..BUT Monday will be another day....
By 10AM Saturday..I will list "buy rated stock"
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Nasdaq closed @ a new high since March lows.....
Dow is within striking distance of making higher highs since March also....
same goes for S&P 500....when all indices make higher HIGHS ..pay attention....
VIX closed @ 24.34 Down 4.25%......
Stocks are doing their rotations within each sector..sign of a "very strong bull market TAPE"
Gold,Oil & other commodities are on a roll....another sign of "turn in economy"
Some stocks were subjected to OE manipulation..BUT Monday will be another day....
By 10AM Saturday..I will list "buy rated stock"
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets near breakeven on Option expiry...NICE !!!
Markets are very close to break even point .....this is very significant on option expiry day.....IF this trend holds..then we MAY see more buying after 2 PM......
There is tremendous demand for equities based on improving economy worldwide.....
US economy is also on the verge of turning UP......
Gold UP $2.10
Oil UP $1.11
Canadian $ flat against US$.....
In my portfolio :
Added 100% more GNK..got filled 22 cents above low of the day...NICE $$$$
Portfolio is EGO,GNK,IPI,MRVL(breakout @ $13.25),SOL,RIMM,SLW,TLM....
@ 12.11 following are green :
RIMM,GNK,EGO,SLW,TLM,POT,AAPL,PALM,SINA,
KGC,BRCD,ICE,IGT,MA,ABX,FSLR,GG,IBN,FWLT,AGU,
FXI,V,NVDA,TSL.....
ER from GE,BAC,C are being greeted with mixed review...GE is being sold off.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
There is tremendous demand for equities based on improving economy worldwide.....
US economy is also on the verge of turning UP......
Gold UP $2.10
Oil UP $1.11
Canadian $ flat against US$.....
In my portfolio :
Added 100% more GNK..got filled 22 cents above low of the day...NICE $$$$
Portfolio is EGO,GNK,IPI,MRVL(breakout @ $13.25),SOL,RIMM,SLW,TLM....
@ 12.11 following are green :
RIMM,GNK,EGO,SLW,TLM,POT,AAPL,PALM,SINA,
KGC,BRCD,ICE,IGT,MA,ABX,FSLR,GG,IBN,FWLT,AGU,
FXI,V,NVDA,TSL.....
ER from GE,BAC,C are being greeted with mixed review...GE is being sold off.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Thursday, July 16, 2009
New recent HIGH close for Nasdaq.....NICE !!!!
Nasdaq close today went unnoticed by all technicians,CNBC & other pundits.....
Nasdaq closed @ 1885.03...previous recent highest close was 1879.92.....
I am glad "nobody cares about a technical breakout" ????
I am sure they are all "busy rehashing things which is NOT important"
What happened to Art Cashin famous "dreadful head & shoulder pattern" & market collapse by 17th which is tomorrow????
If this IS the picture of "dreadful & collapse"..I will take it anyday......
NO...the markets are NOT overbought.....it has more room to run based on ER & positive momentum......
So.... it is Friday the Option Expiry.....which will bring its own "usual manipulation by MM to cover their bad bets".....nothing more.....
GOOG ER was a beat on both Sales & EPS...BUT there must be a "whisper number created by select few with $$$ to play with...GOOG down $14.62 on a small 250,628 shares AH ????
IBM was a beat on EPS but a MISS on Sales..but guiding higher than consensus..it is UP $1.98 on
1.99 million shares AH...
GOOG reaction AH is very subjective while IBM is based on improving business momentum.....
C,BAC,GE will report Friday...which MAY not be a CRITICAL snapshot as some of them are still struggling with "balance sheet issues"......so do NOT read too much into it.....
AH Futures are RED.....
AH Gold, Silver are UP...
AH Nikkei is UP .58%
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Nasdaq closed @ 1885.03...previous recent highest close was 1879.92.....
I am glad "nobody cares about a technical breakout" ????
I am sure they are all "busy rehashing things which is NOT important"
What happened to Art Cashin famous "dreadful head & shoulder pattern" & market collapse by 17th which is tomorrow????
If this IS the picture of "dreadful & collapse"..I will take it anyday......
NO...the markets are NOT overbought.....it has more room to run based on ER & positive momentum......
So.... it is Friday the Option Expiry.....which will bring its own "usual manipulation by MM to cover their bad bets".....nothing more.....
GOOG ER was a beat on both Sales & EPS...BUT there must be a "whisper number created by select few with $$$ to play with...GOOG down $14.62 on a small 250,628 shares AH ????
IBM was a beat on EPS but a MISS on Sales..but guiding higher than consensus..it is UP $1.98 on
1.99 million shares AH...
GOOG reaction AH is very subjective while IBM is based on improving business momentum.....
C,BAC,GE will report Friday...which MAY not be a CRITICAL snapshot as some of them are still struggling with "balance sheet issues"......so do NOT read too much into it.....
AH Futures are RED.....
AH Gold, Silver are UP...
AH Nikkei is UP .58%
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
CIT mess affecting Financials + S&P 500.....
Dow & Nasdaq are in green while CIT mess is putting pressure on financials, thus S&P 500 is negative.....
China GDP growth by 7.9% exceeded consensus....
China Retail sales UP +15%
China Industrial production UP +10.7%
The above is a clear picture that world economy is on the mend...World Bank is predicting 7.2% while IMF saying 7.5% GDP growth for China.....Chinese govt is predicting 8% GDP growth for 2009.....
Gold Down $3.60
Oil Down 10 cents
Canadian $ Down 31 tick after gaining 4 cents against US$ in 3 days.....
JPM ER was a beat on Sales & EPS....
GOOG & IBM reports AH..expecting a beat...
In my portfolio :
Bought EGO a Gold producer.....
Portfolio is EGO,GNK,IPI,MRVL(breakout @ $13.13),RIMM,SOL,SLW,TLM.....
@ 12.10 following are green :
EGO,IPI,RIMM,MRVL,SOL,POT,SINA,CTRN,LULU,
JRCC,MA,BIDU,ISRG,FWLT,V,NVDA,SNDK.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
China GDP growth by 7.9% exceeded consensus....
China Retail sales UP +15%
China Industrial production UP +10.7%
The above is a clear picture that world economy is on the mend...World Bank is predicting 7.2% while IMF saying 7.5% GDP growth for China.....Chinese govt is predicting 8% GDP growth for 2009.....
Gold Down $3.60
Oil Down 10 cents
Canadian $ Down 31 tick after gaining 4 cents against US$ in 3 days.....
JPM ER was a beat on Sales & EPS....
GOOG & IBM reports AH..expecting a beat...
In my portfolio :
Bought EGO a Gold producer.....
Portfolio is EGO,GNK,IPI,MRVL(breakout @ $13.13),RIMM,SOL,SLW,TLM.....
@ 12.10 following are green :
EGO,IPI,RIMM,MRVL,SOL,POT,SINA,CTRN,LULU,
JRCC,MA,BIDU,ISRG,FWLT,V,NVDA,SNDK.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
3%+ rally on heavy volume.......NICE !!!!
All indices went UP in 3% area on heavy volume.....
Internals were "super strong"
Nasdaq closed "higher" than recent high of 1861.62..closed @ 1862.90..higher highs begets more highs.....
GOOG,IBM,JPM will report on Thursday....all will beat which SHOULD give further boost to this rally.....
AH Futures are RED.....based on CIT bankruptcy fear.....
AH Nikkei is UP 2.38% so far.....
AH Oil is UP
AH Silver is UP
China Q2 GDP will be out @ 10PM tonight..consensus is +7.8% growth...I am expecting it will live to its expectation.....which WILL give boost to stock market worldwide....
In my portfolio:
Added 50% more GNK.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Internals were "super strong"
Nasdaq closed "higher" than recent high of 1861.62..closed @ 1862.90..higher highs begets more highs.....
GOOG,IBM,JPM will report on Thursday....all will beat which SHOULD give further boost to this rally.....
AH Futures are RED.....based on CIT bankruptcy fear.....
AH Nikkei is UP 2.38% so far.....
AH Oil is UP
AH Silver is UP
China Q2 GDP will be out @ 10PM tonight..consensus is +7.8% growth...I am expecting it will live to its expectation.....which WILL give boost to stock market worldwide....
In my portfolio:
Added 50% more GNK.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
All Indices well above 50 DMA...NICE !!!!!
Markets are UP 2%++ so far.....
Nasdaq is the-best performer AGAIN.....
As we have completed RETEST of support/low..we ARE looking very good going forward...i was waiting for this RETEST to happen & be completed...to complete making a solid base.....
Oil UP $1.26 to $60.78
Silver UP 13.50 cents +2.92% almost 1% higher than Gold.....NICE $$$
Canadian $ Up 1.33 cent against US$....it takes 89.36 cents US to buy 1 CAD....
In my portfolio :
Bought RIMM..Its new model TOUR is selling "briskly @ VZ & S".... paid 9 cents higher than low of the day...NICE $$$$
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,MRVL,RIMM,SOL,SLW,TLM.....
Most stocks are UP
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Nasdaq is the-best performer AGAIN.....
As we have completed RETEST of support/low..we ARE looking very good going forward...i was waiting for this RETEST to happen & be completed...to complete making a solid base.....
Oil UP $1.26 to $60.78
Gold UP $15.90
Silver UP 13.50 cents +2.92% almost 1% higher than Gold.....NICE $$$
Canadian $ Up 1.33 cent against US$....it takes 89.36 cents US to buy 1 CAD....
In my portfolio :
Bought RIMM..Its new model TOUR is selling "briskly @ VZ & S".... paid 9 cents higher than low of the day...NICE $$$$
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,MRVL,RIMM,SOL,SLW,TLM.....
Most stocks are UP
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Another day & another GREEN close...NICE !!!
Indices showed conviction on flattish trade by GS despite great ER.....
INTC beat consensus & guidance by a wide margin....even margins are showing sequential gains..... AH UP 7.07% on 9.20 million shares ...
AH futures are all lit UP...
IF futures are any indication....then Wed all indices SHOULD be ABOVE 200 & 50 DMA.....I think Art Cashin of UBS will bring his towel to NYSE & announce "his surrender to the TAPE"
VIX closed @ 25.02..ready to hit its 52 week low of 18.64.....
Based on INTC which gave "guidance for a change"based on "clear visibility"...we MAY go over the recent high in S&P 500.....
It IS becoming a stock picker market..gone are the days when all solar moved UP or all Dry shippers were equally strong.....some are down OR some are moving UP more than others.....so pay attention to TAPE......
AH oil is above $60.....
AH Nikkei is UP .4%....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
INTC beat consensus & guidance by a wide margin....even margins are showing sequential gains..... AH UP 7.07% on 9.20 million shares ...
AH futures are all lit UP...
IF futures are any indication....then Wed all indices SHOULD be ABOVE 200 & 50 DMA.....I think Art Cashin of UBS will bring his towel to NYSE & announce "his surrender to the TAPE"
VIX closed @ 25.02..ready to hit its 52 week low of 18.64.....
Based on INTC which gave "guidance for a change"based on "clear visibility"...we MAY go over the recent high in S&P 500.....
It IS becoming a stock picker market..gone are the days when all solar moved UP or all Dry shippers were equally strong.....some are down OR some are moving UP more than others.....so pay attention to TAPE......
AH oil is above $60.....
AH Nikkei is UP .4%....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Indices all green.....NICE !!!
Indices are doing a back to back gain after GS reported a blowout Sales & EPS......
S&P 500 is only 7 points away from 50 DMA....
AH INTC ER will be out..expecting a beat
GOLD UP $2.30...
OIL UP 62 cents to $60.31....
Canadian $ UP 1.18 cents to 88 cents against US$..Canadian economy showing solid gains in housing which IS UP in sales YOY......had all time record housing resale in June.....Sales UP the most EVER.....prices are UP 6% also..housing starts are also UP back to back....
In my portfolio :
Bought SLW....a silver producer....Gold & Silver stocks seasonally move UP from July .......
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL,SLW,TLM.....
@ 12.12 following are green :
GNK,MRVL,SOL,SLW,TLM,SINA,KGC,IGT,WYNN,
BIDU,EGLE,SOHU,GG,SNE,IBN,FWLT,X,KLAC,GE.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 is only 7 points away from 50 DMA....
AH INTC ER will be out..expecting a beat
GOLD UP $2.30...
OIL UP 62 cents to $60.31....
Canadian $ UP 1.18 cents to 88 cents against US$..Canadian economy showing solid gains in housing which IS UP in sales YOY......had all time record housing resale in June.....Sales UP the most EVER.....prices are UP 6% also..housing starts are also UP back to back....
In my portfolio :
Bought SLW....a silver producer....Gold & Silver stocks seasonally move UP from July .......
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL,SLW,TLM.....
@ 12.12 following are green :
GNK,MRVL,SOL,SLW,TLM,SINA,KGC,IGT,WYNN,
BIDU,EGLE,SOHU,GG,SNE,IBN,FWLT,X,KLAC,GE.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Monday, July 13, 2009
S&P 500 closed above 200 DMA...NICE !!!!
S&P 500 not only closed above 200 DMA.. but it is only 10 points away from 50 DMA.....
Markets were "deeply oversold" so it rallied into close despite daily BEARISH mantra from Art Cashin of UBS..who has been seeing things "which do NOT exist"
GS reports tomorrow which will be a "barn burner"...that report MAY take us to higher grounds......
Most ER will BEAT & guidance will be above consensus for a change.....
VIX closed @ 26.31 getting ready to take out the lows......
AH Nikkei UP almost 2%...
AH Futures are minor RED after strong close which is to be expected....
AH Oil is UP @ $60.10
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets were "deeply oversold" so it rallied into close despite daily BEARISH mantra from Art Cashin of UBS..who has been seeing things "which do NOT exist"
GS reports tomorrow which will be a "barn burner"...that report MAY take us to higher grounds......
Most ER will BEAT & guidance will be above consensus for a change.....
VIX closed @ 26.31 getting ready to take out the lows......
AH Nikkei UP almost 2%...
AH Futures are minor RED after strong close which is to be expected....
AH Oil is UP @ $60.10
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 "above 200 DMA & heading towards 50 DMA"..NICE !!!!
When technicians are "unanimous that we are heading lower in S&P 500 towards 800 area" then opposite always happens......S&P 500 did not even come close to 869.32 which is recent low hit three days ago...the best they could do today was 875.32..thus a higher lows 2 days in a row....
S&P 500 is well above 200 DMA & IS racing towards 50 DMA...NICE $$$$
Gold Down $1.40 to $910.80
Oil Down $1.15 to $58.74
Canadian $ UP 47 tick against US$
In my portfolio :
Added 25% more IPI which got downgraded with est & target cut.....already priced in NOW....
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL,TLM......
@ 12.10 following are among Green :
SOL,TLM,MRVL,AMZN,AAPL,STP,GE,GS,
CTRN,ICE,LULU,NDAQ,WYNN,MA,BIDU,NYX,
VLO,FSLR,ISRG,VAR,IBN,GOOG,AGU,SNDK,
PMCS,NVDA,LRCX,BAC.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 is well above 200 DMA & IS racing towards 50 DMA...NICE $$$$
Gold Down $1.40 to $910.80
Oil Down $1.15 to $58.74
Canadian $ UP 47 tick against US$
In my portfolio :
Added 25% more IPI which got downgraded with est & target cut.....already priced in NOW....
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL,TLM......
@ 12.10 following are among Green :
SOL,TLM,MRVL,AMZN,AAPL,STP,GE,GS,
CTRN,ICE,LULU,NDAQ,WYNN,MA,BIDU,NYX,
VLO,FSLR,ISRG,VAR,IBN,GOOG,AGU,SNDK,
PMCS,NVDA,LRCX,BAC.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Risk/Reward IS ratio pretty good in markets.....
S&P 500 being the-most watched by technicians are being interpreted to the hilt......
Some are predicting as low as 805....
Most knowledgeable ones are saying no lower than 850....
We closed @ 879.13......
SO.....IF we take the realistic number of 850 then the downside risk is 29 points in S&P 500 or 3.3% downside risk......
UPSIDE target in S&P 500 is a realistic challenge of 956.23 area or a gain of 106 points from much talked about support of 850 which is a move UP of 12.5%.......
SO...we have a CHOICE of worrying about a 3.3% drop OR positioning for a 12.5% move UP....
Most traders/investors will like this Risk/Reward ratio which is tilting towards huge gain.....most high beta stock will move way more than S&P 500 gain.....
As markets are in basing mode and MAY have tested its support around 869.32 ALREADY..so do not count on lower S&P.....IF this is the case then we MAY start moving UP as of this Monday....
Why this OPTIMISTIC view when most pundits are pessimistic about market strength?
AGAIN.....I rely MORE on "contrary" SENTIMENT indicator....more bearish the pundits..the better I feel....& markets generally do NOT accommodate the HERD......
This pullback is extremely healthy for markets going forward....as we needed to ratchet down our expectations for economy.....
Move of 48% from March low to second week of June highs in S&P 500 was pretty "dramatic" which represented a "euphoria about economy".....that was too much to expect too fast......
Now ..we are in a "more realistic mode for economy" where even a discussion for second stimulus is being talked about...which only confirms that economy will show improvement in Q4..not as of yesterday.....thus a pullback in markets to adjust to new reality.....
As this recession was way deeper than any recession in history....so a Q4 improvement is not only realistic but it IS the-best which CAN be expected given the financial mess.......
ER from GS,GOOG will be better than expected..which will give lift to the markets and technology stocks will outperform AGAIN.....
Most stocks are oversold in Techs,Oil,Gold,Ag,Solar,Financials..so a diversified approach in all of these sectors are highly recommended......
Making money is NEVER easy..it needs a combination of risk taking,sector knowledge,technical analysis......if you apply these three @ right moment.....then rewards CAN be very gratifying....
Look for "relative strength" within each sectors based on recent TAPE.....as they will move FIRST......
It IS almost like buying near March lows all over again.....so an aggressive approach MAY pay off in a big way.......
Why am I so OPTIMISTIC ?????
Oil near recent lows......
Gold near recent lows....
Markets near recent lows.....
I have "rarely" seen these three behaving so poorly @ the same time???
Because they ARE behaving so poorly...thus a "bottom is @ hand or has already reached"
My personal exposure in equities are HIGHER than @ any time since March lows......based on my OWN analysis of Risk/Reward.....
I cannot be MORE clearer as to how I see markets in short term......
BUT..you have to be comfortable with your OWN risk appetite....based on your OWN risk tolerance....every investor/trader has to find their OWN comfort level......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Some are predicting as low as 805....
Most knowledgeable ones are saying no lower than 850....
We closed @ 879.13......
SO.....IF we take the realistic number of 850 then the downside risk is 29 points in S&P 500 or 3.3% downside risk......
UPSIDE target in S&P 500 is a realistic challenge of 956.23 area or a gain of 106 points from much talked about support of 850 which is a move UP of 12.5%.......
SO...we have a CHOICE of worrying about a 3.3% drop OR positioning for a 12.5% move UP....
Most traders/investors will like this Risk/Reward ratio which is tilting towards huge gain.....most high beta stock will move way more than S&P 500 gain.....
As markets are in basing mode and MAY have tested its support around 869.32 ALREADY..so do not count on lower S&P.....IF this is the case then we MAY start moving UP as of this Monday....
Why this OPTIMISTIC view when most pundits are pessimistic about market strength?
AGAIN.....I rely MORE on "contrary" SENTIMENT indicator....more bearish the pundits..the better I feel....& markets generally do NOT accommodate the HERD......
This pullback is extremely healthy for markets going forward....as we needed to ratchet down our expectations for economy.....
Move of 48% from March low to second week of June highs in S&P 500 was pretty "dramatic" which represented a "euphoria about economy".....that was too much to expect too fast......
Now ..we are in a "more realistic mode for economy" where even a discussion for second stimulus is being talked about...which only confirms that economy will show improvement in Q4..not as of yesterday.....thus a pullback in markets to adjust to new reality.....
As this recession was way deeper than any recession in history....so a Q4 improvement is not only realistic but it IS the-best which CAN be expected given the financial mess.......
ER from GS,GOOG will be better than expected..which will give lift to the markets and technology stocks will outperform AGAIN.....
Most stocks are oversold in Techs,Oil,Gold,Ag,Solar,Financials..so a diversified approach in all of these sectors are highly recommended......
Making money is NEVER easy..it needs a combination of risk taking,sector knowledge,technical analysis......if you apply these three @ right moment.....then rewards CAN be very gratifying....
Look for "relative strength" within each sectors based on recent TAPE.....as they will move FIRST......
It IS almost like buying near March lows all over again.....so an aggressive approach MAY pay off in a big way.......
Why am I so OPTIMISTIC ?????
Oil near recent lows......
Gold near recent lows....
Markets near recent lows.....
I have "rarely" seen these three behaving so poorly @ the same time???
Because they ARE behaving so poorly...thus a "bottom is @ hand or has already reached"
My personal exposure in equities are HIGHER than @ any time since March lows......based on my OWN analysis of Risk/Reward.....
I cannot be MORE clearer as to how I see markets in short term......
BUT..you have to be comfortable with your OWN risk appetite....based on your OWN risk tolerance....every investor/trader has to find their OWN comfort level......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Saturday, July 11, 2009
BUY rated stocks for "quick trades"......
Following stocks are flashing buy signal for "quick trades".....Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.
BCE,RCI,BIDZ,ACTL,SMG,WMS,SWSI,VSEA,AMKR,
UNTD,FE,SNS,AAP,WSII,AET,CBU,LPL,SNWL,APWR,
BRCM,BWLD,CTXS,EXPE,GOOG,PNRA,SNDK,DLM,
SY,WFR.
Next post by 10AM Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
BCE,RCI,BIDZ,ACTL,SMG,WMS,SWSI,VSEA,AMKR,
UNTD,FE,SNS,AAP,WSII,AET,CBU,LPL,SNWL,APWR,
BRCM,BWLD,CTXS,EXPE,GOOG,PNRA,SNDK,DLM,
SY,WFR.
Next post by 10AM Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Friday, July 10, 2009
Nasdaq closed green.....
Nasdaq was the only major index which closed in green......
S&P 500 did not violate recent low..but closed below 200 DMA.....
Internals were neutral.....
Volume was lower.....
VIX closed @ 29.02...keeping hope alive for a rally....
By 10AM Saturday...I will post a list of buy rated stocks.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 did not violate recent low..but closed below 200 DMA.....
Internals were neutral.....
Volume was lower.....
VIX closed @ 29.02...keeping hope alive for a rally....
By 10AM Saturday...I will post a list of buy rated stocks.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Retest of support continues.....
Indices are testing support....
No real damage has been done as we are still higher than recent low of 869.32 in S&P 500....
Once hedge funds ala GS types knows that they cannot push the market lower..they will move it UP,UP & more UP.....
AG stocks are taking on the chin as a contract in India is signed for $40 lower than expected...
Gold Down $7.40 to $908.50
Oil Down $1.31 to $59.10..looks washed out big time !!!
Canadian $ down 13 tick against US$....economic report in Canada was mixed...Job picture way better than expected...BUT trade deficit more than double of expectation.....
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL(upgraded with $7 target),TLM....
@12.21 following are green :
SOL,AAPL(est increased),RIMM,FMCN,RCI,CTRN,
LULU,BIDU,NYX,CMED,GOOG...
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
No real damage has been done as we are still higher than recent low of 869.32 in S&P 500....
Once hedge funds ala GS types knows that they cannot push the market lower..they will move it UP,UP & more UP.....
AG stocks are taking on the chin as a contract in India is signed for $40 lower than expected...
Gold Down $7.40 to $908.50
Oil Down $1.31 to $59.10..looks washed out big time !!!
Canadian $ down 13 tick against US$....economic report in Canada was mixed...Job picture way better than expected...BUT trade deficit more than double of expectation.....
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL(upgraded with $7 target),TLM....
@12.21 following are green :
SOL,AAPL(est increased),RIMM,FMCN,RCI,CTRN,
LULU,BIDU,NYX,CMED,GOOG...
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Thursday, July 9, 2009
S&P 500 closed above 200 DMA.....
Stock market traded in a narrow range..all indices closing in green.....
S&P 500 closed above 200 DMA.....
Internals were much stronger than close..UP volume were clearly in the lead....advancing stocks also held up better.....
VIX closed @ 29.78 Down 4.86%
AH futures are minor red...
AH Nikkei & Hang Seng UP less than .5%
AH Oil trading @ $60.75 UP .34
Today's trading was on lower volume.....Market is in wait & see mode for next week ER which includes GS,GOOG among others...
In the meantime commodity based trades will give better reward ......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 closed above 200 DMA.....
Internals were much stronger than close..UP volume were clearly in the lead....advancing stocks also held up better.....
VIX closed @ 29.78 Down 4.86%
AH futures are minor red...
AH Nikkei & Hang Seng UP less than .5%
AH Oil trading @ $60.75 UP .34
Today's trading was on lower volume.....Market is in wait & see mode for next week ER which includes GS,GOOG among others...
In the meantime commodity based trades will give better reward ......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 above 200 DMA....NICE !!!!
S&P 500 & Nasdaq are firmly in green..while Dow goes in & out of green......
Most stocks are firmly in green as they were washed out & had gone back to April level..a huge retracement.....
Technicians should be happy with this retest of lows which was completed yesterday...but they will still sing an old song..."retest is coming to Wall Street"
So ...how much we retraced in indices from recent highs..here is the number :
S&P 500 high 956.23...retest low 869.32 =<86.91> or <9.01%>
Dow high 8877.93..retest low 8087.19 =<790.74> or <8.91%>
Nasdaq high 1879.92..retest low 1727.05 =<152.87> or <8.13%>
As you can see that on any pullback most indices follow each other ....but stocks take a much bigger hit depending on their BETA....high beta can retrace up to 50% easy on 9% pullback...
Gold UP $5.20 to $914.20
OIL UP 3 cents to $60.17
Canadian $ UP 40 tick against US$
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL,TLM.....
Most stocks are UP......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Most stocks are firmly in green as they were washed out & had gone back to April level..a huge retracement.....
Technicians should be happy with this retest of lows which was completed yesterday...but they will still sing an old song..."retest is coming to Wall Street"
So ...how much we retraced in indices from recent highs..here is the number :
S&P 500 high 956.23...retest low 869.32 =<86.91> or <9.01%>
Dow high 8877.93..retest low 8087.19 =<790.74> or <8.91%>
Nasdaq high 1879.92..retest low 1727.05 =<152.87> or <8.13%>
As you can see that on any pullback most indices follow each other ....but stocks take a much bigger hit depending on their BETA....high beta can retrace up to 50% easy on 9% pullback...
Gold UP $5.20 to $914.20
OIL UP 3 cents to $60.17
Canadian $ UP 40 tick against US$
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL,TLM.....
Most stocks are UP......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Constructive close on heavier volume...NICE !!!!
S&P 500 low today was 869.32.....closed @ 879.56.....
200 DMA is 883.11..which needs to be cleared on a closing basis.....
RSI is @ 38.53.....in deeply oversold territory....
VIX closed @ 31.30......should go below 30 in a hurry..so rally can continue in equities....
AH Futures are mixed with Dow & S&P 500 green while Nasdaq is mini red....
AH Oil is UP.....
Strong stocks included GOOG,AMZN,AAPL,NDN,WFR,ENER,FSLR....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
200 DMA is 883.11..which needs to be cleared on a closing basis.....
RSI is @ 38.53.....in deeply oversold territory....
VIX closed @ 31.30......should go below 30 in a hurry..so rally can continue in equities....
AH Futures are mixed with Dow & S&P 500 green while Nasdaq is mini red....
AH Oil is UP.....
Strong stocks included GOOG,AMZN,AAPL,NDN,WFR,ENER,FSLR....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 low so far 870......
Markets are finding no support..so far
We need to close above 876...to see a reversal.....
Gold Down $19.10 @ $909.70
Oil Down $2.14 @ $60.79
Canadian $ Down 21 tick against US$
In my portfolio :
Bought GNK
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL,TLM.....
Most stocks are down today near or below support.....
@12.31 these are green :
AMZN,NDN,SNE.......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
We need to close above 876...to see a reversal.....
Gold Down $19.10 @ $909.70
Oil Down $2.14 @ $60.79
Canadian $ Down 21 tick against US$
In my portfolio :
Bought GNK
Portfolio is GNK,IPI,MRVL,SOL,TLM.....
Most stocks are down today near or below support.....
@12.31 these are green :
AMZN,NDN,SNE.......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Are we ready for a technical bounce...YES
Markets are deeply oversold.....
RSI is @ 38.95 in S&P 500..lowest in four months..takes us lower than 3rd week of March????
S&P 500 closed @ 881.03 while 200DMA is 884.99.....
Volume was below average.....
Nasdaq closed @ 1746.17 below 50DMA of 1773.47.....RSI @ 40.69..again lowest in 4 months..
Dow is below 50 & 200 DMA...RSI @ 38.12..lowest in 4 months....
It is a "mystery" why we went so low in all indices & breaching important technical levels....I cannot explain this @ all...so I go back to looking @ RSI...which IS saying we have reached "severe oversold conditions"
So..if nothing else..we should get a strong technical bounce......
AH Futures are all minor GREEN.....
VIX closed @ 30.85
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
RSI is @ 38.95 in S&P 500..lowest in four months..takes us lower than 3rd week of March????
S&P 500 closed @ 881.03 while 200DMA is 884.99.....
Volume was below average.....
Nasdaq closed @ 1746.17 below 50DMA of 1773.47.....RSI @ 40.69..again lowest in 4 months..
Dow is below 50 & 200 DMA...RSI @ 38.12..lowest in 4 months....
It is a "mystery" why we went so low in all indices & breaching important technical levels....I cannot explain this @ all...so I go back to looking @ RSI...which IS saying we have reached "severe oversold conditions"
So..if nothing else..we should get a strong technical bounce......
AH Futures are all minor GREEN.....
VIX closed @ 30.85
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 staying above 200 DMA..so far !!!!
S&P 500 is staying above 200 DMA of 885.03.......
Oil is down again by $1.38 to $62.67....as fear still lingers about strength of recovery.....
Stimulus money has NOT trickled to programs yet due to bureaucratic steps..it will take up to 18 to 24 months before it is all used up.....September will be the start of this allocation in any meaningful manner.....
Gold down 80 cents to $923.20
Canadian $ down 20 tick against US$
Portfolio is IPI,MRVL,SOL,TLM.....
@ 12.12 following are green :
MRVL,SOL,TLM,IBN,KGC,BRCD,TKC,JRCC,LVS,
GG....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Oil is down again by $1.38 to $62.67....as fear still lingers about strength of recovery.....
Stimulus money has NOT trickled to programs yet due to bureaucratic steps..it will take up to 18 to 24 months before it is all used up.....September will be the start of this allocation in any meaningful manner.....
Gold down 80 cents to $923.20
Canadian $ down 20 tick against US$
Portfolio is IPI,MRVL,SOL,TLM.....
@ 12.12 following are green :
MRVL,SOL,TLM,IBN,KGC,BRCD,TKC,JRCC,LVS,
GG....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Monday, July 6, 2009
S&P500 closed @ absolute High of the day...NICE !!!!
When markets are overbought it find all kinds of excuse to go down....BUT once market is oversold it DEFIES common wisdom & moves UP.....today was a classic culmination of extreme BEARISH euphoria......that NOTHING is right about this economy???
We have come a long way from financial mess which caused the market slump......
US markets are controlled by hedge funds who plays long & short with ease as retails are always PANICKED into selling or buying in an stampede mode......
S&P 500 tested 200 DMA barely and moved right UP to close @ high of the day...a solid technical reversal......
AH Futures are mixed with mini moves....not material @ all....
AH Gold is UP
AH Oil is UP...everyone is bearish....so a great contrary play!!!
VIX closed @ 29...not predicting FEAR....
Strong stocks included GS,MA,V,AMTD,FXI,GOOG,NDN,ICE,LRCX,KLAC.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
We have come a long way from financial mess which caused the market slump......
US markets are controlled by hedge funds who plays long & short with ease as retails are always PANICKED into selling or buying in an stampede mode......
S&P 500 tested 200 DMA barely and moved right UP to close @ high of the day...a solid technical reversal......
AH Futures are mixed with mini moves....not material @ all....
AH Gold is UP
AH Oil is UP...everyone is bearish....so a great contrary play!!!
VIX closed @ 29...not predicting FEAR....
Strong stocks included GS,MA,V,AMTD,FXI,GOOG,NDN,ICE,LRCX,KLAC.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 tested support in 886 area..will it HOLD ???
Markets are reacting to a renewed perception that economy is NOT improving as fast as hoped/predicted...I beg to disagree completely......we are on track for an expected improvement in Q3 & robust Q4......
Media CAN give any picture it wants.....
Politicians like Joe Biden will say anything "to take the heat off".....
We are coming off from a horrendous recession close to depression......uptick is quite remarkable already......
Markets are @ the same level as last October of 08...while we HAVE made major inroads in financial stability...which everyone IS ignoring......
Loans are being made...
Mergers are a reality....
Autos are READY to ramp UP.....
But.... we continue to focus on issues which ARE lagging indicator..like Jobs.....most economist KNOW that JOBS picture will NOT improve until Q4...no surprise there.....
Gold Down $9.10 to $921.60..support zone
Oil Down $2.41 to $64.32..near major support
Canadian Up 10 tick against US$..as it has found support
In my portfolio :
I am allocating MORE than my usual trading $$$...as I am OPTIMISTIC about potential GAINS from current level......
Bought IPI
Portfolio is IPI,MRVL,SOL,TLM......
@12.06 following are green :
NDN,V,ICE,VAR,AMTD,FXI......so far $$$$
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Media CAN give any picture it wants.....
Politicians like Joe Biden will say anything "to take the heat off".....
We are coming off from a horrendous recession close to depression......uptick is quite remarkable already......
Markets are @ the same level as last October of 08...while we HAVE made major inroads in financial stability...which everyone IS ignoring......
Loans are being made...
Mergers are a reality....
Autos are READY to ramp UP.....
But.... we continue to focus on issues which ARE lagging indicator..like Jobs.....most economist KNOW that JOBS picture will NOT improve until Q4...no surprise there.....
Gold Down $9.10 to $921.60..support zone
Oil Down $2.41 to $64.32..near major support
Canadian Up 10 tick against US$..as it has found support
In my portfolio :
I am allocating MORE than my usual trading $$$...as I am OPTIMISTIC about potential GAINS from current level......
Bought IPI
Portfolio is IPI,MRVL,SOL,TLM......
@12.06 following are green :
NDN,V,ICE,VAR,AMTD,FXI......so far $$$$
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
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