Friday, February 29, 2008

Markets tanked Again.......

Markets as expected showed a bear picture and selling accelerated into close......

Market internals were "awful"....

Down volume led by 9 to 1 on NASDAQ & almost 12 to 1 on NYSE......a total washout today......

Expecting a turnaround on Monday...as traders are getting used to jumping in after a "washout"

This type of tape IS very common after a "major breakdown in the markets"...3 days UP 2 days Down ..then 3 days DOWN 2 days UP.....

So...how to play this market ....

Buy strong stocks for long term hold by long term investors.....

Buy strong stocks on "washout days" for UP move & SELL by traders....

In my stocks :

CSIQ rating 50/100 rated for a "breakout" @ $19.92 for a target of $23.72

COIN rating 25/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $13.21 for a target of $15.79

GS rating 75/90 rated for a "breakdown" @ $167.40 for a target of $156.19 ...If NOT then 1st UP target IS $180.37

LDK rating 75/70 rated for a "breakdown" @ $25.91 for a target of $19.03..If NOT then 1st UP target IS $33.10

RIMM rating 50/30 target $108.86

In other stocks :

CMED rating 55/90 target $48.79
AGU rating 0/30 target $74.13

By 10AM Saturday I will be posting a list of technically WEAK/ STRONG & Momentum stocks..

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets backing off on financials woes.....

Markets are backing off on many negative news of banks ,bond insurers......

This was an expected pullback.......

Markets should hold here and hopefully move UP.....

In my portfolio :
Bought back my CMED call for a gain of $2.35 per share......

Sold CMED for a loss off $6 per share ....so a net net loss of $3.65 per share...thank goodness for a very small position......

CMED ER was a beat by 2 cents on a GAAP basis..but guidance was no change.....

Bought COIN my cost $12.40....

My portfolio now is :

CSIQ,COIN,GS,LDK & RIMM

CSIQ down 17 cents

COIN UP 61 cents

GS down $2.56

LDK down 6 cents

RIMM down $2.75

@ 11.30 AM the following are green :

BIDU (starting messaging service),LVS,FSLR (found support),AKAM.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Markets down .9%........

Markets on the average down .9% on all indices.......

Advance decline ratio favoured decliners by 2 to 1 on both NYSE & Nasdaq....

This IS a normal pullback which may extend into Friday .......

In my portfolio :

I did a covered write on my CMED position as I could NOT pass UP $4 per share premium for 7 weeks.....so I wrote April 55 call...this puts me ahead by almost $2 per share instead of being down $2 per share...not bad for a dull Thursday strategy...If i get called I make $3 per share...if it stays in $55 or lower...it brings my cost down to about $52.......thought I do something different !!!

CMED rating 35/45 target $57.20

CSIQ rating 100/100 rated for a "breakout" @ $20.36 for a target of $23.88

GS rating 65/75 target $190.48

LDK rating 60/70 target $33.07

RIMM rating 0/30 target $113.15

In other stocks:

SNE rating 20/30 target $51.09
COIN rating 15/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $13.08 for a target of $15.64
AGU rating 40/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $76.61 for a target of $83.34
SNCR rating 60/100 rated for a "breakdown" @ $15.97 for a target of $12.41 ..If NOT 1st target is $20.12

Why do I "highlight other stocks".......because I am always looking @ these very closely for possible purchase...subject to tape action !!!!

I am sure some of US are breathing a big SIGH of relief that LDK did NOT go down today in a very bad tape when every solar stock I follow was down.....some were down BIG like FSLR down $12.43,STP down $1.31,JASO down 71 cents.......Also noted that LDK is NOT rated for "breakdown" anymore......

AAPL had great two days back to back Up $11 in 48 hours...

CTRP had blowout ER jumped $7++ gave a big push to SOHU & FMCN

Friday is end of the week & end of the month......so maybe a "black cat day"?????

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets digesting economic data.....

Markets are lower due to economic uncertainty based on the reports about jobless claims which IS @ highest level......

Markets are also "mildly overbought"......so red picture is healthy......

I am expecting better close.......

In my portfolio :

I sold CMED and booked a gain of $1.69 per share.......my 3rd trade in a week

I bought a smaller qty of CMED again with a preset sell price in place..my cost $56.17....under water as I write...Still expecting ER to be a BEAT.....

CSIQ down 72 cents

CMED down 57 cents..I am down $1.28

GS down $4.09

LDK UP 64 cents

RIMM down $1.64 in Toronto

@11.16 AM the following are green :

AGU,AAPL,AUY,SOLF,YHOO,CTRP,WYNN,ABX,SOHU,FMCN,
SNDA,NDAQ.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Markets on "firm footing" !!!!!

Markets are showing resiliency.......

830 AM economy read will set the tone again.....

Markets are getting in the habbit of ignoring weak numbers...thursday should be no different..I hope !!!

AH AAPL lit the fireworks by confirming their sale of 10milion iphones in 08.....UP$8+

AH SEED is getting killed on ER...Down $3++

In my portfolio :

CSIQ rating 100/90 target $23.59

CMED rating 35/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $57.31 for a target of $62.88...ER AH Th....

GS rating 40/45 target $190.48

LDK rating 50/70 rated for a "breakdown" @ $25.82 target $19.07 if NOT then 1st target UP is $32.52......

RIMM rating 20/30 target $118.17

In other stocks :

SNE rating 40/30 target $51.09

AGU rating 20/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $75.04 for a target of $82.31

Most technology stocks were strong including GOOG,BIDU,AAPL JNPR,FFIV,CSCO,BRCM to name a few.....

All solar stocks are showing "sustained weakness...some are hitting new LOWS"..Analyst have been relentless in their negative take on their prediction for HIGH & LOW polysilicon prices...so they are downgrading many solar stocks because their cost will be HIGHER due to high silicon prices used for PV cells...but Wafer makers like LDK & WFR are being sold off because Wafer prices will be coming down in 2009 ??? I thought we are in 2nd month of 2008 ???

I believe that hedge funds are behind this massive selloff in Solar stocks no matter what they produce wafers or PV cells.....just does NOT make sense.....no matter how good or bad the ER are...they are taken down as if they all have warned for next 2 years.....??? i thought I have seen it all...but the solar selloff is totally out of my league & understanding ????NO FA or TA IS working ???

This should reinforce my point about being in Many stocks instead of one concentrated position.....that IS the-reason I am NOT adding to my LDK position.....no matter how LOW it goes...will NOT sell any either.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets saying "catch my GREEN if you CAN"

Markets have been giving "loud & clear message through TAPE...that it is UPTREND now"

No bad news of durable goods,manufacturing index or high inflation is affecting markets NOW....???

Markets are looking AHEAD to improving fundamentals in economy...six months down the ROAD...to economic growth......

So markets are singing "on the northbound road AGAIN"

In my portfolio :

Sold all SOLF to book a loss of $3.20 per share as two analyst rated it a SELL this AM...both Citi & BOA......

Bought back CMED cost $55.40....behaving real well and NO selling pressure @ all..expecting great ER & Guidance AH Thursday......

CSIQ UP $1.30 had a "breakout" @ $19.77 now @ $20.65 on heavy volume...It IS MORE amazing based on many negative take on solar since Monday......

GS UP $4.57....going towards 1st UP target of $180.37 instead of "breakdown"

LDK down $1.06 in the "support zone of $29 area".....let us see if it HOLDS.....

RIMM UP $2.74 in Toronto where I purchased yesterday....

CMED down 22 cents on average volume.....

So...my portfolio is :

CSIQ,GS,LDK,RIMM & CMED.......

@ 11.37 AM the following are green in my watch list :

AGU,NVDA,AUY,ABX,BIDU,GOOG,BRCM,C,DELL,SNDK,YHOO,
AAPL,TOL,NYX,FSLR,XLF,SNE,IFN,DRYS,EWY,NCTY,FFIV.

Good luck on rest of the day.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Market Lovi'n strong & green close !!!!

Markets are closing on a strong note day after day......

Markets are taking note of "positive news & ignoring negative news"

Markets are building confidence of many participants & also those who are sitting on the sidelines.......

Markets TAPE always gives CLUE of strength & upcoming upward moves......

Markets are poised to "show strength"...& that famous Jan low is in rear view mirror !!!!!

In my portfolio :

Sold CMED .... booked a gain of $3.58 per share.....

Sold AGU...booked a gain of $1.22 per share.....

Bought GS twice today cost is $175.94

Bought RIMM twice in Toronto cost $106.26 in Canadian $ which was flying again today UP another 1.77 cents against US$......

My portfolio :

CSIQ,GS,LDK,RIMM,SOLF

CSIQ rating 100/95 rated for a "breakout" @ $19.77 with a target of $23.13

GS 70/85 rated for a "breakdown" @ $167.40 with a target of $156.20...if NOT then target IS $180.37.....

LDK rating 55/90 target $37.98

RIMM rating 5/30 target $111.31

SOLF rating 100/95 target $17.11

In other stocks :

CMED rating 30/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $57.44 with a target of $62.57

AGU 20/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $75.40 with a target of $82.10

STP had a very strong day & turnaround UP $4++ ..it was placed on "conviction list" by
Goldman....

It is a stock pickers market ...so develop/follow any system which gives you good picks and have disciplined exit points...otherwise you risk losing profit......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets are green on another news by IBM !!!!

Markets are behaving in a "bullish mode".......

Markets are ignoring negative news like a huge jump in PPI....

Losses were contained to 50+ point on huge inflation news.....because markets have discounted slower economy,inflation,sub-prime mess......based on tape.....

IBM guided higher & announces huge buyback & markets take off......

Consumer confidence fell and markets pulled back slightly.....

We are in reverse mode with markets now.......softer tone in the morning & stronger close ....this IS what I call a bullish tone......

In my portfolio :

Doubled my position in GS...my cost went down to $176.01

GS down $2.38

AGU.TO UP 7 cents..... as Canadian $ is flying again up 90 ticks ..so it pulls back AGU in Canada to adjust for higher C$ and higher in US to account for lower US$.....

CSIQ UP 44 cents

CMED down 25 cents

LDK down $2.23...PJ says Sell,Lazard Neutral & Needham Strong Buy !!!!

SOLF down 24 cents

@ 11.22 AM the following are green in my watch list :

BUCY,DELL,AMAT,BRCM,CTRN,TSO,CTRP,TOL,VLO,ABX,
ISRG,SNE,IFN,SNDA,EZA,PCZ,TER,STP.

On a personal note......sincere feelings for our BLOG visitor & contributor Bruce
who has decided to take everything off the table because of his discomfort with this market...I fully understand his rationale & his predicament from seeing less & less equity....I admire his honesty & Bruce's willingness to DEAL with his stress....nothing IS more important than peace of mind & taking care of his beloved family in a less stressful mode......

Wishing Bruce the-best always...and please use comment section to stay in touch...you are a good man & you deserve BETTER !!!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, February 25, 2008

Markets closed near high !!!

Markets raced UP to close near high of the day......

Once more Bond insurer rating affirmation by S&P was the catalyst......

Short covering are gradually kicking in......

Markets are nowhere near being out of the woods yet........????

Markets will remain "economic news driven"......

So watch your exposure.......

Markets are NEAR the high range of trading.......so a pullback CAN come from nowhere !!!

It IS a stock pickers market.......

Ag stocks were @ "new all time HIGH"

Listened to LDK CC.......highlights are :

They are managing their cost......

They are managing their margin....

Silicon cost IS pressuring their margin and will remain so until 2nd half of 08.....

Factory IS on schedule.....

LDK stock price will be dictated by analyst take on LDK Q 4 result & their guidance for 2008 !!!

If solar sector moves UP then LDK will move UP......

LDK will be among the better performer going forward....

In my portfolio :

AGU rating 15/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $74.58 with a target of $81.58

CSIQ rating 60/95 rated for a "breakout"@ $19.92 for a target of $23.78

CMED rating 55/30 target $58.06

GS rating 95/80 target $190.48

LDK rating 65/90 target $37.90

SOLF rating 90/95 target $18.17

In other stock :

BUCY rating 5/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $105.48 for a target of $115.10

Please continue your OWN due diligence as strong sectors & strong stocks are working.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

LDK beat on Sales & EPS ...Guides EPS HIGHER !!!

LDK proved skeptics WRONG by beating Top & Bottom line handily.......

Sales were $192.8 million vs expectation of $183.10 million ..BEAT by $9.7 million +5.2%

EPS were 44 cents vs expectations of 41 cents..BEAT by 3 cents +7.3%

Guidance for Q1 EPS is 43 cents vs expectations of 40 cents + 7.5%

Sales for Q1 will be slightly softer as expected by me because of "snowstorm & new Chinese year..which IS normally Slower Q.....

Sales guidance for Q1 is $215 million vs expected of $219.72 million Less $4.72 million which IS <2.1%>

Margin for 2008 will be between 26% to 31%...HIGHER than analyst expectations !!!

Factory is on schedule.........

All in all.....a tremendous BEAT all around.........

Expect analyst to UPGRADE LDK.......

Good luck to all believers of LDK.

Saleem

Markets UP nicely....Technician's nightmare ????

Markets are again defying daily prediction of technicians that markets are "ready to collapse"???

When markets do NOT listen to technician's "pay attention"......

Markets have been showing a much better TONE for the last 3 weeks.......

I think technicians are "ready to throw their SWEATY towels in the laundry & need to take a COLD shower to wake UP in a hurry to NEW REALITIES...technically speaking"

In my portfolio :

AGU.TO UP $1.65..getting close to all-time high only $1.44 away ( Toronto price... as Canadian $ is flying again today UP 1.33 cents so far)

CSIQ down 2 cents

CMED UP $1.11 to a fresh all-time high

GS down $2.57

LDK UP 14 cents ...reports AH..expecting good ER & guidance......I hope !!!

SOLF UP 19 cents

@ 11.17 AM the following are green on my watch list:

POT (new high),BUCY,NVDA,TSL,DELL,SNDK,FSLR,SPWR,VMW,
ICE,IGT(new high),CTRP,WYNN,LVS,NMX,VLO,ISRG,SNE,AMZN,
IFN,FWLT,RIMM,EZA,SNDA,FFIV.

Good luck for rest of the day.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, February 24, 2008

What IS a "better strategy in a volatile markets"

We all are struggling with current market conditions.....which will remain volatile with an UPWARD bias......

We all have our own way of investing & trading......

This market has "tested our patience" and have forced all of US to RETHINK what IS a better approach......

Buy & SLEEP is NOT working...

Buy & take LOSS is NOT working...

Buy & take profit when it comes IS working....

So...it will be SMARTER for all of US to recognize this NEW REALITY of market....

So how do we create funds to reposition ?????

Add more of our savings into stocks.........

Take LOSS in our existing position and redeploy funds into better stocks......

Or put additional funds into existing losing position.......

Guess what...I have used the above two approach with "reasonable success"

This has allowed me to create profit even in this difficult market.........

What you have to realize that MANY stocks are currently out of favour.......

So you have to "de-leverage from those stocks and position into new strong stocks"

In order to identify "new strong stocks" you have to DO homework......

Homework which includes FA , TA plus tape reading......IS critical......

As you can clearly see MOST stocks are below 200 DMA....and some stocks are either hitting new highs or are above 50 DMA......

Your investment savvy is determined if you are ABLE to SPOT strong stocks before they HIT new highs......so please go back to DRAWING board and give yourself a BIG wake-UP call......

Market are in the process of ascending HIGHER........

Ensure that you are adjusting to NEW REALITY of current strong stocks.....

Taking loss must not be a painful process.......

Market has CREATED many LOSS situations......so why NOT you take INITIATIVE of booking some LOSS and CREATE a BETTER portfolio.......

Being STUBBORN in this or any market does NOT work most of the time.....so why try it....

Think...this weekend as the first day of your investing strategy......

Look @ your pool of funds and ask a "simple question"

Are YOU in RIGHT stocks or NOT......& be HONEST.......

If you are NOT...then when are you going to OPTIMIZE the remaining EQUITY !!!!!

I know it IS TOUGH for most of you to ACCEPT REALITY....but you will be WISE to be super CRITICAL & create a NEW action plan which comes into effect IMMEDIATELY......

Please go into a well defined strategy of what IS working in a DIVERSIFIED mode......

Good luck on your first day of becoming a "BETTER Investor/Trader"

I am always happy to answer any question which may help you & many other readers of my BLOG......

Saleem

Saturday, February 23, 2008

New BUY signal stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

The following stocks gave a "new buy signal".....please do your own due diligence & limit your loss by using stop.

BIDZ,DISH,FMCN,NCTY,SNDA,PWRD,NCOC,CYBX,CCC,
DO,TKC,TLM,TJX,TU,PDA,OCR,IGT,AMT,WLB.

Next post 10AM Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically STRONG stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

The following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.Please check FA & news.Limit your loss by using stop.

CMED,CSCO,BIDU,LYG,ADSK,X,MA,PBR,LTXX,ACOR,IT,
DVN,NUE,AKS,PXP,HOC,MIR,KG,TRW,BRKR,NCI.

TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)

CCO,YRI,K,G,S,FNX,PTM,HSE,AEM,PAA,PLB.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically WEAK stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

Following stocks are showing technical weakness based on various formations.Please check FA & news.Please limit your loss by using stop.

FRE,XLNX,SWY,ACN,RIGL,PCS,CLX,TTM,OVTI,BLK,LWSN,CMS,
VDSI,PGR,HDNG,LEAP,AHL,SQNM,NTCT,NTRS.

TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)

ET,MT,BCM,ATD.B,FAP,RBA,WN,WFT,MXX.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, February 22, 2008

Market bounced UP from support !!!!

Market bounce UP strongly from support.......

In basing formation......markets will use any excuse to move UP..because it was @ support !!!

It IS extremely interesting that we did NOT go to test the previous LOWS.....as trumpeted by all technicians......some were even predicting breakdown of 20% from previous lows......I am sure all of these technicians earned a "hefty bonus for excellent TA"

So......where do we go from here ???

Higher HIGHS & higher LOWS will be the pattern going forward !!!!

In my portfolio :

AGU rating 50/30 target $74.59

CSIQ rating 60/95...rated for a "breakout" @ $19.49 for a target of $23.19

CMED rating 45/30 target $57.25

GS rating 100/75 target $189.14

LDK rating 55/90 target $37.94

SOLF rating 65/90 target $17.12

In other stock :

SNE rating 45/30 target $48.40

LDK reports AH on monday ..the following are 7 analyst consensus:

Sales Q4 $183.10 million
Sales Q1 $219.72 million

EPS Q4 41 cents
EPS Q1 40 cents

There IS a very good chance that LDK will BEAT Q4 both on Sales & EPS....and will Guide Q1 above consensus on EPS...Sales for Q1 MAY be affected by snowstorm...unless they can catch up.......

By 10 AM on Saturday...I will be posting list of technically WEAK/STRONG & momentum stocks...

Have a nice weekend.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets trying to find support......

Markets are trying very hard to find support ......

Markets are given daily dose of negative economic news or major downgrades.....

Inspite of all that...we are NOT falling apart.....which IS a good thing !!!!

Never underestimate the power of a "basing market......"

We are definitely ABOVE january LOWS...& staying there.....

I am using this sideways market to position for next move UP.....

Solar has been beaten down on NO fundamental reason.....stocks are always priced on PE....sooner or later......

With some PATIENCE & CONVICTION......we will be profitable eventually !!!

I personally cannot believe the prices on some solar stocks based on its 08 & 09 earning estimates......I call it "seriously MISPRICED"

In my portfolio :

I added 25% more CSIQ @ open..my cost went down to $26.22......

AGU.TO I did buy this stock in toronto yesterday in Canadian $ down $1.23

CSIQ down $1.06

CMED UP 50 cents

GS down $1.84

LDK down 43 cent....announced a new 10 yr supply agreement with Hyundai starting end of 08...

SOLF down 51 cents....

@11.43 AM the following are green on my watch list :

MTU,AMAT,IGT (new HIGH),WYNN,LVS,NVDA,NYX,NMX,
AMZN,GOOG,EZA,NCTY,GRMN.

Close should be telling inspite of weekend.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Markets ended WEAK........

Markets rolled over in the afternoon and closed near low.

Internals were extremely WEAK......

Markets are getting in the habbit of showing strength one day & weakness next day...typical of basing action......

Tremendous rotation is going on .....on a daily basis....sign of FEAR in the market.....

Not many group except hottest sector are able to have back to back gains.......

In my portfolio :

Did lot of trades today to adjust to new reality of "volatility on a daily basis"

Sold MA booked $1 per share gain.......

Sold AGU booked $1.20 per share gain....

Sold CMED booked $4.22 per share gain....

Bought GS @ $176.80

Rebought AGU @ $72.17

Rebought CMED @ $52.21

My current portfolio is :

AGU,CSIQ,CMED,GS,LDK & SOLF.....

My new strategy IS to sell any stock where I see profit & buy anything which has a chance of making money NEXT day......I hope !!!!

AGU rating 40/30 target $74.68

CSIQ rating 50/60 target $23.07

CMED rating 20/30 rated for a "breakout" with a target of $58.34

GS rating 100/90 target of $185.95

LDK rating 45/90 target $37.94

SOLF rating 65/90 target $19.11

In other stock :

JASO rating 65/85 target $19.54

Solar is being sold off relentlessly for a long time.....I personally believe that it IS deeply oversold and could rally without any news or catalyst.....on technical REBOUND......

It IS unusual to see this kind of degradation in PE in solar.....which is listed below after close today:

FSLR...85.32
SPWR..33.66
STP.....21.29
LDK.....17.68
CSIQ...13.90
SOLF..23.20
JASO..24.47

Why do I analyze PE after close today ??...to FACTUALLY see how my solar stocks stacks up against the entire universe of known solar company......so it IS easy to see where the strength or weakness IS in my solar stocks......

It IS very interesting to see how US based solar stocks are given HIGHER PE than Chinese solar ???

Please try to KNOW what you OWN on a daily basis as earning estimates are changing these days......PE is just one measure which I use for a quick comparison.....this gives me a snapshot and then I am READY to take any decision based on PE......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets fighting "bad economic news AGAIN !!! "

Markets AGAIN had to deal with many negatives in economic data.....

Jobless claims were worse than expected.......

Philly manufacturing LEI index slumped to the lowest level in many many years......

So...what market does...went from UP 50+ to Down 50 area.......

Markets are giving CLEAR signal....that economic bad news are already discounted......

VIX also did NOT spiked UP @ all...it went down on bad news ????

We have a market which IS ignoring ALL the bad news @ this juncture......????

Markets MAY give us its VERDICT in few days.....as to why...it IS holding so well...I hope !!!!

In my portfolio :

AGU UP $1.67 near all-time HIGHS

CSIQ down 2 cents

CMED UP 58 cents...trying to "breakout"

LDK down 84 cents

MA down $2.60...on a formal probe of its charges by "Hungary"

SOLF down 43 cents

@11.44 AM the following are green :

RIMM (15 to 20% higher subscribers growth),POT,WFR,SNDK,
AMAT,CSCO (citi upgrade),GS,CTRN,CTRP,TOL,NMX,AUY,
ABX,GG,DRYS,FWLT,NTES (good ER),NDAQ,LRCX,INFY.

Please stay DIVERSIFIED in many sectors & KNOW your stocks history & future !!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Markets fought negativity to close green !!!

When just about everybody was certain that markets will have a bad day...markets DID the opposite.......

CNBC ,Barrons & message boards are all highlighting "what IS wrong with this market"

And the sure way to make money according to many experts is to buy "ultra shorts"....

Whenever any "strategy is extremely popular...then it IS time to do the opposite".....

So....today markets made a decision for most "ultra short players ...who were getting very comfortable in their recliners.....by going UP in a hurry...when shorts were taking a nap"

Many experienced investors/traders will tell you that it is WISE to stay in the market...even when it IS looking dark.......

Because.......you never know ..when the markets are finished discounting all the obvious issues..

Most of the big moves are in the first few days of any turnaround....

So...if you miss those days...then it will take a long time with lot of luck to be ahead again......

In my portfolio :

AGU rating 35/30 target $76.14

CSIQ rating 40/50 target $24.78

CMED rating 35/30...rated for a "breakout" @ $53.42 for a target of $58.71

LDK rating 50/90 target $40.66

MA rating 55/45 target $233.53

SOLF rating 55/95 target $20.42

In other stock :

JASO rating 90/30 target $20.57

Today STP gave a "shocker to entire solar sector" by missing consensus sales & earnings for Q4 & guiding well below consensus on both Sales & EPS for Q1....analyst conclusion IS...that STP is NOT willing to pay higher spot prices for silicon & are NOT able to get their contracted supply of Silicon......thus a huge miss all around......

Analyst are also of the view that Silicon shortage will NOT go away until middle of 09......

I do NOT buy all of the above ?

In my opinion STP has been overly aggressive in locking PV contracts worldwide @ very thin margin...to gain market share......but with the spot price of Silicon going higher......they are seeing losing money on some contracts...thus NOT delivering ...which affects Sales & EPS as guided previously......

I am also of the view that other companies like LDK ,CSIQ & SOLF are much more in-tune with costing of raw material & are upfront with any changes in their supply issues......we shall see as LDK reports Monday AH.......

AH NVTL is the disaster of the day down 14% on lower guidance.....

Jobless claims are out @ 830 AM.......which will set the tone for markets....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets yoyoing both bulls & bears ???

Markets are extremely frustrating to both "bulls & bears in base building mode"

Bears are looking for a "retest of 11,600 on dow" & bulls are wishing for a clean breakout on the upside........

Guess what...we are getting neither......

Why ????

Because .......after such a sharp & straight line drop...tape NEEDS to build a nice base before it trends higher......

It IS highly encouraging to see that dow is resting comfortably above 12,200......

So much for technical mumbo jumbo......

On the fundamental side...markets are digesting lot of positives & negatives......

Did I say positives ?

Yes I did....

Positives are.... that fed & white house are focussed on any remedial steps to help the economy..

Negatives are sub-prime related mess...which still needs CLARITY.....

So .......we are involved in mud-wrestling......lot of slip & sliding ..but going nowhere FAST !!!

In my portfolio :

AGU UP $2.09

CSIQ down $2.32

CMED down 62 cents

LDK down $2.40

MA UP $2.54

SOLF down 94 cents

@11.22 AM the following are green :

RIMM,POT,MOS,HPQ,BRCM,DELL,VMW,AMAT,GS,ICE,
AAPL,TSO,CTRP,NYX,AMZN,FFIV,NVTL,LRCX.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Rally faded into close ????

After a long weekend & worldwide rally......US markets were ready to stage their rally......

But...But...But......

Many things spooked the markets...namely

-$100 oil

-$24 jump in gold

Both renewed fear of inflation..thus fear of Fed not reducing interest rates.....

As they say.......rest is a flat close on Dow & S&P 500 but a weak finish for Nasdaq.

Today's tape may be discouraging to bulls...but this IS typical of a base formation...so NO real damage done to basing.

In my portfolio :

AGU rating 20/30 target $74.60

CSIQ rating 5/30 target $24.19

CMED rating 25/30..rated for a "breakout" with atarget of $58.66

LDK rating 75/95..target $44.77

MA rating 45/80 target $224.56

SOLF rating 55/90 target $21.74

In other stock :

JASO rating 40/45 target $20.57

AH HPQ ER was good UP $2.20..guidance good !!!

AH disasters were NTRI & CROX...down $5+++

STP reports before OPEN CC 8AM.......expect a good report which should help all solar.....

TSO & VLO were strong

DRYS & DSX were strong

FMCN,NTES ,SINA & SOHU were green......

GOOG,BIDU,ISRG,FSLR,RIMM,NYX,GS & AAPL were WEAK......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets staying in "green"..waiting for fed minutes !!!

Markets are holding on to "half of its gain"......

Why we lost half of the gain????

First ......that is the nature of US market.......

Second.... lot of traders have lost lot of equity......so they trade out very quickly.....

Third...Fed minutes will come out @ 2PM......so there IS some hesitation into buying before the minutes......

Fourth....lot of buyers normally buy near close ...with the hope that prices will be "more attractive"

Fifth....Shorts are working in-concert to hold off any strong gains......until they COVER or trying to SHORT in any rally........

In my portfolio :

AGU UP $3.92

CSIQ UP 11 cents

CMED UP 82 cents

LDK UP $1.00...upgraded by GS from sell to neutral....

MA down 5 cents

SOLF down 30 cents

@ 11.35 AM the following are green :

POT,MOS,MON,WFR,SNDK,VMW,MTU,AAPL,IGT,TSO,
WYNN,AUY,KGC,GG,ABX,VLO,SNE,IFN,DRYS,FWLT,
JEC,EZA,EWY,FMCN,PCZ,GRMN.

Someone IS trying to BLOCK my BLOG with various tactics since yesterday......which IS preventing ME to POST or REPLY for about an hour......then it IS dealt by GOOG....& I AM able to post again......No big deal...but a nuisance @ best.......please keep trying if you have difficulty in signing IN....it is a 30 minutes PAIN....gift of internet agendas ?????

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, February 18, 2008

European markets closed Near HIGH !!!!

European markets were flying UP today......

The following are the closing stat :

FTSE UP 159 +2.75%

DAX UP 135.12 + 1.98%

CAC UP 90.01 + 1.89%

LDK also trades in Germany on Frankfurt exchange.....here is the detail of LDK trade in Germany :

LD41.F closed @ 23.73 euros UP .75 euro +3.26%

European tape action bodes well for US markets......

Good luck for tuesday !!!

Saleem

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Let's GET "analytical".......

So..... Markets are behaving "better than expected"......

Time to zero in "hot sectors".....

As Democrats have a good chance of geting in white house...plus controlling senate & house.....

Solar & everything alternate energy will be the biggest beneficiary.....as there IS a serious shortage of energy worldwide.....

Food habbits are changing worldwide & shortage is growing...prices are exploding....

Oil will remain high & crack spread will increase ......

Gold is high due to $ demise.....

Infrastructure will get moving again...once credit squeeze fear goes away....

Dry goods shipping will continue its run.......

Techs selectively will be profitable.....

Medical devices & Biotechs will be strong.......

So.... let us look @ PE in the above sectors.......

FSLR....90.28
SPWR...38.28
STP.....24.37
SOLF...27.9
CSIQ...15.97
LDK....19.51

POT...22.1
MOS..16.84
AGU...14.26

ISRG...59.69
CMED.. 24.6
MR....33.15

ABX...17.76
AUY..13.80

DRYS..4.45
DSX..10.22

AAPL..24.29
RIMM..28.25
NOK...14.44
SNE...13.69

TSO...7.71
VLO...7.66

So...there you have it...PE of good stocks in the "hottest sectors"........

My suggestion will be to pick 2 from each sector and create a "smokin portfolio"

As markets will be heading "higher"...before we know it.......

So be ready with your OWN homework FA/TA + TAPE...should do it for 2008 !!!!

Good luck on your selection........

Please ...remember...it IS stocks NOT stock market ...that will make you serious money !!!

As I always say ...I WORRY a whole lot about my stocks than stock market.....

No one CAN time the markets......so do NOT even try it !!!!

Currently...it IS a great time to OWN strong stocks with great FUTURE !!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Enjoy Presidents day !!!

Saleem

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Momentum stocks for "Higher Highs in Markets "

Following stocks are showing technical momentum based on Bollinger Band formation.Please do your own due diligence as it MAY be a sign of temporary overbought conditions.Manage your risk by using stop.

AMMD,BRCD,CGNX,FEED,HOGS,IPCR,JRVR,MOGN,PCLN,
PDLI,PRAI,RADS,SMBI.SPSX,ACH,AW,AWC,CEO,CKH,CLB,
CPB,CPN,CSG,CVC,GIS,HET,K,KFT,MDT,TWX,WIN,PAL,
NLR,GHC.

Next post 10AM sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically STRONG stocks for "Higher Highs in Markets "

Following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.Please check FA & manage risk by using stop.

PCLN,HANS,MISS,DNA,SPSX,TLB,DO,UBB,BJS,WPI,WCG,PALM,
GT,HPQ,CLS,OMTR,AMKR,TTWO,ELOS,JRCC,ACLS,CBRL,VPHM,
MKSI,JNPR,SWKS,ACN,CTCM,LCAPA,BBD,HL,ELNK,ALNY,STR.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically WEAK stocks for "Higher Highs in Markets "

Following stocks are showing technical weakness based on various formations.Please check FA & manage risk by using stop.

ACF,ONNN,GLW,AKS,GME.WINN,FMD,IBN,FNM,AFR,
EQR,EMS,HUM,ATAC,TECD,PLAB,PCS,AKS.

TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)

PJC.A,UFS,MFI,GRZ.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, February 15, 2008

S&P 500 closed "green for a long weekend"

S&P 500 by closing green on a long weekend gave a much needed boost to believers of higher lows & higher highs......

Did you noticed the abscence of "chartist from CNBC lately".....hedge funds must be quietly setting up for "long positions"

As markets are in much stable & trending higher ground.....it IS time for homework !!!

In my portfolio :

AGU rating 20/30 target $70.52

CSIQ rating 15/30 target $24.18..upgraded this AM to BUY by Piper their target $34

CMED rating 20/45 rated for a "breakout" @$53.42 with a target of $58.68

LDK rating 50/90 target $40.73

MA rating 75/70 target $222.27

SOLF rating 60/90 target $21.73

In other stock :

WFR rating 40/45 target $83.89

GS found support & turned UP

Solar stocks were down on disappointing ER from YGE...which was down $3.23 on triple the volume....

BRCD was UP 13% on Citi upgrade to "top pick"...

10AM saturday I will post a list of technically WEAK/STRONG & momentum stocks....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets down so far...before long weekend !!!!

Markets are down before long weekend.

Two data which came out showed weakness in manufacturing and confidence waning.

Both data is part of expected slowdown in economy thus affecting consumer & business confidence.

In my portfolio :

AGU down $1.60

CSIQ down 12 cents

CMED down $1.87

LDK down $1.39

MA down $3.00

SOLF down $1.00

@11.30 AM the following are green :

CTRP,PCLN,NYX,IFN,DRYS,FWLT,HPQ,CIEN.

Close should be very telling...inspite of weekend !!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Markets in RED for valentines day !!!!

Markets gave up all of yesterdays gain.......

Markets were affected by mini overbought condition & testimony by the biggies.....which were less upbeat than expected....

So lot of nervous traders booked gains by selling.....

Tape these days will be news driven...especially on any confirmation that things are still BAD in economy.....

In my portfolio :

AGU rating 45/30 target $70.58

CSIQ rating 30/30 target $24.79

CMED rating 50/30 rated for "breakout" @ $53.44 for a target of $58.59

LDK rating 70/85 target $40.44

MA rating 50/80 target $218.47

SOLF rating 55/55 rated for "breakout" @ $19.04 for a target of 22.98

In other stock :

WFR rating 25/30 for a target of $83.89

DRYS UP $5+ on ER......
DSX UP $1 in sympathy....

CMG down $15 AH on ER...

BIDU UP $3.41 on better ER but guidance was soft on a sequential basis...
NVDA down $4+ on higher expense for next ER......

GS down $3+..getting close to lower channel.....

AAPL,RIMM,INTC,CSCO,NVLS,LRCX,GOOG,FSLR,ISRG,SOHU,FMCN,
IFN were WEAK ...

Friday is Option expiry.......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

RED valentines day ...after TRIO testimony......

Markets are in "Valentine red" after testimony of Fed chief,Treasury Secty & SEC boss.....

After 3 days of gains...markets are pulling back....understandibly......

Senators are asking "scare mongering questions on TV...instead of RESOLVING issues in senate & house & working with white house"....an ambulance chasing approach...get TV time no matter HOW......

In my portfolio :

I added 33% more SOLF @ open..my cost went UP to $17.57...It IS the biggest laggard in Solar sector..hopefully it will wake UP soon.....

AGU UP 89 cents

CSIQ down 53 cents

CMED UP 5 cents

LDK down 42 cents

MA down $6.13

SOLF down 41 cents

@11.48 AM the following are green :

YHOO,POT,IGT,BIDU,SPWR,DRYS,GOOG,EZA,EWY,
SNDA.

Ben Bernanke & Henry Paulson are trying their best to deal with "what if questions"...It IS NOT easy to play GOD.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Markets keep moving on UP !!!!

Markets got "technicians in a pickle"????

Technicians are looking @ their charts and saying "where is another DOWNLEG"

Miss Yamada & Mr Carter are NOT coming to CNBC to "highlight the CLEAR breakdown in S&P"......which had guarenteed another 20% DOWNSIDE ?????

When you see CHARTIST 100% sure about another 20% downside...you KNOW that UPSIDE is just around the corner $$$$$

When sentiments are this negative ...markets always turns UP.......

CNBC "spooked the DAYLIGHTS of every investor/trader"...so there was nobody left to sell.....

So...goes the story of 2008 "bear market"......

In my portfolio :

AGU rating 35/30 target $70.54

CSIQ rating 25/30 target $27.79

CMED rating 55/30 rated for a "breakout"@ $53.34 for a target of $58.06

LDK rating 50/55 target $40.78

MA rating 45/40 target $218.47

SOLF rating 65/50 target $21.82

In other stock :

JASO 20/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $21.29 for a target of $24.46

Solar stocks were on fire...FSLR,SPWR,STP,JASO,TSL,YGE,WFR.......

Techs were back ..AAPL,RIMM,BIDU,GOOG,ISRG,SOHU......

Other winners...DRYS,FWLT,MELI,NCTY,NMX,ICE,LRCX,SNDK,HPQ....

Ben Bernanke will give testimony to CNBC audience........

Good luck for 4th day of green !!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem