Markets as expected showed a bear picture and selling accelerated into close......
Market internals were "awful"....
Down volume led by 9 to 1 on NASDAQ & almost 12 to 1 on NYSE......a total washout today......
Expecting a turnaround on Monday...as traders are getting used to jumping in after a "washout"
This type of tape IS very common after a "major breakdown in the markets"...3 days UP 2 days Down ..then 3 days DOWN 2 days UP.....
So...how to play this market ....
Buy strong stocks for long term hold by long term investors.....
Buy strong stocks on "washout days" for UP move & SELL by traders....
In my stocks :
CSIQ rating 50/100 rated for a "breakout" @ $19.92 for a target of $23.72
COIN rating 25/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $13.21 for a target of $15.79
GS rating 75/90 rated for a "breakdown" @ $167.40 for a target of $156.19 ...If NOT then 1st UP target IS $180.37
LDK rating 75/70 rated for a "breakdown" @ $25.91 for a target of $19.03..If NOT then 1st UP target IS $33.10
RIMM rating 50/30 target $108.86
In other stocks :
CMED rating 55/90 target $48.79
AGU rating 0/30 target $74.13
By 10AM Saturday I will be posting a list of technically WEAK/ STRONG & Momentum stocks..
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
8 comments:
This is just awesome....
I present you, the housing crisis thru stick figures. If you have friends or families that don't get it, this explains it in simple laymans terms.
http://docs.google.com/TeamPresent?docid=ddp4zq7n_0cdjsr4fn&skipauth=true&pli=1
Nice post Troy. Very sad and funny at the same time. One thing is consistant throughout history and in particular the financial markets...there is no shortage of f'n shisters around ready and willing to stick it deep into trusting (and I guess naive) people, including myself.
Best to all the bloggers.
Hi Saleem,
Yesterday was so surreal I was at a surprise retirement party given to me by my staff and CMED was tanking. I was in disbelief when I saw the tape. WOW, I have learned a very painful lesson about taking profit when it is there.
I have not taken any profits in cmed thinking it would continue to follow the recent trend. Retirement changes your perspective, taking profit and preserving capital has to be primary.
I was feeling so confident that cmed would continue on the path and have not assessed my over exposure, etc.
I am now trying to assess the technical damage. Historically when it has broken down there has been a quick recovery. The selling was so heavy I don't believe that will happen this time.
This market is like something I have never experienced.
I think you strategy of taking profits is definitely the way to go. Did you learn this through painful experience?
Diane
SALEEM
Happy Saturday to ya>
Here is IBD:
Rank Company Symbol Price
---- ---- ---- ----
1 POTASH CORP SASKATCHEWAN POT 158.9
2 INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC ISRG 281.92
3 RANGE RESOURCES CORP RRC 61.18
4 C F INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS CF 122.08
5 TITAN MACHINERY INC TITN 18.01
6 YAMANA GOLD INC AUY 17.99
7 BUCYRUS INTERNATIONAL BUCY 99.88
8 F C STONE GROUP INC FCSX 46.64
9 RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD RIMM 103.8
10 VIMPEL COMMUNICATIONS VIP 34.73
11 ATWOOD OCEANICS INC ATW 93.09
12 CTRIP.COM INTL LTD ADR CTRP 60.62
13 SOMANETICS CORP SMTS 27.79
14 COMPANHIA SIDERURGIC ADS SID 37.39
15 T THREE ENERGY SERVICES TTES 49.37
16 GIGAMEDIA LIMITED GIGM 19.59
17 PRICELINE.COM INC PCLN 114.02
18 COMP VALE DO RIO ADR RIO 34.84
19 TELE NORTE LESTE PAR ADS TNE 25.03
20 COCA COLA HBC SA ADR CCH 43.59
21 CHINA MEDICAL TECH ADS CMED 46
22 L K Q CORP LKQX 21.24
23 SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY CO SWN 65.23
24 NEWMARKET CORPORATION NEU 66.95
25 AGRIUM INC AGU 73.77
26 CONTINENTAL RES INC CLR 28.08
27 QUICKSILVER RESOURCES KWK 34.4
28 MOSAIC COMPANY MOS 111.3
29 DENBURY RESOURCES INC DNR 31.89
30 FOSTER L B COMPANY FSTR 42.36
31 KOPPERS HOLDINGS INC KOP 41.77
32 AMTRUST FINANCIAL SVCS AFSI 16.7
33 TRANSOCEAN INC RIG 140.51
34 C T C MEDIA INC CTCM 29.36
35 NATURAL GAS SERVICES GRP NGS 22.4
36 F M C TECHNOLOGIES INC FTI 56.66
37 MASTERCARD INC CL A MA 190
38 CREDICORP LTD BAP 74.33
39 HARBIN ELECTRIC INC HRBN 19.9
40 WESTERN DIGITAL CORP WDC 30.87
41 CHATTEM INC CHTT 77.9
42 PETROQUEST ENERGY INC PQ 15.76
43 TURKCELL ILET HIZME ADR TKC 25.23
44 CENTRAL EUROPEAN DIST CP CEDC 58.18
45 FLOWSERVE CORP FLS 108.9
46 MERIDIAN BIOSCIENCE INC VIVO 34.27
47 ARENA RESOURCES INC ARD 40.48
48 CONCUR TECHNOLOGIES INC CNQR 29.24
49 KENDLE INTERNATIONAL INC KNDL 44.81
50 CORE LABORATORIES NV CLB 121.6
51 ROWAN COMPANIES INC RDC 40.31
52 PETROHAWK ENERGY CORP HK 18.08
53 MOBILE TELESYSTEMS ADR MBT 82.06
54 B H P BILLITON PLC ADS BBL 64.3
55 NASDAQ OMX GROUP INC NDAQ 41.51
56 DEERE & CO DE 85.21
57 BANCO BRADESCO SA ADR BBD 31.39
58 TEAM INC TISI 30.49
59 JINPAN INTERNATIONAL LTD JST 27.42
60 CHART INDUSTRIES INC GTLS 34.31
61 LIFECELL CORP LIFC 40.35
62 BOIS D'ARC ENERGY LLC BDE 21.5
63 HORNBECK OFFSHORE SVCS HOS 44.93
64 A Z Z INCORPORATED AZZ 35.42
65 GERDAU S A ADR GGB 32.77
66 BUENAVENTURA COMP ADS BVN 76.03
67 MINDRAY MEDICAL INTL ADS MR 36.7
68 ENERSYS ENS 22.99
69 ANSYS INC ANSS 37.37
70 H D F C BANK LTD ADR HDB 109.11
71 DAWSON GEOPHYSICAL CO DWSN 65.87
72 WILLIAMS COMPANIES WMB 36.02
73 BLACKROCK INC BLK 193.25
74 GREIF INC CL A GEF 65.39
75 BANCO ITAU HLDG SA ADR ITU 25.34
76 M E M C ELEC MATERIALS WFR 76.28
77 WEATHERFORD INTL LTD WFT 68.92
78 ROSTELECOM LONG DIST ADS ROS 68.35
79 NATUS MEDICAL INC BABY 18.99
80 COVANTA HOLDING CORP CVA 28.68
81 DYNAMIC MATERIALS CORP BOOM 56.99
82 COMP DE BEBIDAS ADR ABV 81.48
83 SOCIEDAD QUIMICA Y MINRA SQM 195.05
84 CANADIAN NATURAL RES LTD CNQ 74.84
85 SYNIVERSE HOLDINGS INC SVR 16.95
86 OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM OXY 77.37
87 ENCANA CORP ECA 76.36
88 HESS CORP HES 93.18
89 ICON PLC ADS ICLR 66.1
90 MECHEL OAO ADS MTL 132.05
91 MONSANTO CO MON 115.68
92 GRAFTECH INTERNATIONAL GTI 16.02
93 AMERIGON INC ARGN 18.16
94 FOCUS MEDIA HOLDING ADS FMCN 50.37
95 MANITOWOC CO MTW 40.74
96 DOLBY LABORATORIES INC DLB 44.25
97 NEW ORIENTL EDU&TECH ADS EDU 62.35
98 PRIDE INTERNATIONAL INC PDE 35.44
99 SADIA SA ADR SDA 16.89
100 ALMOST FAMILY INC AFAM 21.4
Hi Diane,
Yes....I have learned by watching same stock go UP and same stock go DOWN between point A to B and back to A.....
Take any stock and seen through the chart what has happened almost every 6 months.....
For some people traders are ridiculed...which is very unfair....
Putting experience to work is being dubbed stupid......
In the end ...what matters IS how much money have you made with your trading style......
CMED is NOW back to Jan 06 level...
Most blind faith will NEVER see why any stock tank the way they do...there is always some reason...& it IS upto the investor to find out.....
There is NO such thing as "conspiracy"...it is trading smarts which counts in the end.....
I BUY when good stocks are being sold off for "no good reason..like LDK"...I stay put till I have made my return in those situation....
For CMED 50dma will be a "major resistance" for a while (month @ least)unless some good news comes out.....
Now that you have retired ....you must keep an eye on equity which you will need to maintain & GROW....
So being "overexposed IS never a good idea in any stock"
You need to optimize your available $ into @ least 5 to 7 strong stocks.....
Currently most strong stocks are on sale...so adjusting your strategy should NOT be an issue.....
Please keep in mind...what you DO NOW will make a big difference what you will EARN in stocks tommorrow.
I will be more than happy to guide you through these steps...if you want !!!
Saleem
Hi Madmax,
Thanks for IBD 100 !!!
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Thanks for your response. I would not pay attention to Zbux bombastic style. When CMED is doing poorly he attacks others. Wait til he retires. Circumstances dictate investing style and I know I need to change mine. I am impressed by how fast you react and are able to judge the tape and minimize loss.
Currently I have four stocks and 50% in cash. I want to diversify and get rid of my overweight position in CMED. My greed says hold for another month give it an opportunity to consolidate and then sell 1/3 of CMED. I am also thinking of QID for day trades.
I will look to buy more diversification. I wish agu would pull back abit. If GS pulls back more I am thinking of this.
I am reading your blog you are helping alot of people, one of them is me.
Thanks,
Diane
Hi Diane,
I am glad that you are in the process of adjusting your trading/investing style.
We all have to find our own style sooner or later.
Markets are brutal just about everyday.....so you have to position accordingly....
You need to have an exact $ value of each stock as to where you are willing to HOLD...if it goes that LOW...then you are NOT shocked....
All I am saying that you need to know how far LOWER you are willing to HOLD any stock including CMED & LDK.....?????
Then factor the loss of equity in your portfolio...if you still want to HOLD then you are planning it fine......
Let us take LDK for an example....It CAN go as low as $22...are you OK with that.....then you are setup fine......that IS why I never ADD in a downtrend as a rule......especially if it IS a prolonged one already like LDK...market KNOWS more than me about some issues or challenges about LDK......
Use the same approach with CMED & plan your moves then......
BLOG discuss many stocks with one purpose only...to show one person trading/survival strategy in a very difficult market.....
Saleem
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