Friday, April 29, 2011

Market firmly in bull mode......

Markets are enjoying the best bull run in a long time.

Many so-called resistance or top has been sliced with ease.Yes there has been some pullbacks along the way, but they were pretty mild of 3% to 9%.

IF we look @ the gain from 666 low in S&P 500 in April 09 to today's close of 1363...that is a gain of 697 points or 104.65% in 24 months......

I do not recall any technician or fundamental analyst predicting anything near to the gain which we have seen so far.On the contrary, we were told to get ready for a major pullbacks @ every 20 points gain in S&P 500.

Here is the RSI read as of close :

S&P 500 69.13

Nasdaq 70.04

Dow 72.67

Base on RSI & the momentum, it is easy to see that S&P 500 should climb above 1400.....best guess is a high of even 1460.......

Many stocks are making new highs, which should be the focus in any new trading position.

Market TAPE is extremely orderly & in a major UPTREND.

Not only stocks are in a major bull run , but Gold,Silver,Oil,Copper are also in historic highs.

IF we take Gold ,Silver, Copper to new all time highs, it will be a safe assumption that stock market will take out all time highs easily.Not only that, but it may make series of new highs like Gold & Silver.

Of course there will be periodic corrections, which will be fast & sharp.

SO, IF you are a trader...there is lot of opportunity on a daily basis.

IF you are an investor, stay with themes which is working.

Good luck in your OWN homework, we all are as good as our last stock picks.

It is critical to get out of any failed ideas quickly.

I have shown by example, IF things go south..I am OUT.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Higher highs AGAIN.....NICE !!!!

Indices are on a roll again to new highs, new highs gets many new highs...a reliable technical tool.

Poor Doug Kass, he feels a compulsion to tell everyone that he cannot read the market @ all.....markets are strong on fundamentals ala earnings & technical pattern ala multi year highs.....Doug needs a refresher course in trading 101.......

Gold UP $17.20

Oil UP 53 cents

Canadian $ UP 28 tick 105.46

VIX Down .55% @ 14.54

In my portfolio :

Added 50% POT @ $55.34....many analysts have increased targets to as high as $71 by Credit Suisse..fundamental of POT is strongest NOW......

Portfolio is highly concentrated LULU 46.27%, APKT 33.94%, POT 19.79%

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.09 following are RED :

RIMM, AKAM, FFIV,SLW,DECK,CMG,
ALTR,BWLD,CCJ,M,BAC,MU,SNDA,
ICE,NTES,GAME,ISRG,TTM,VAR......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Another multi-year high in Indices & VIX @ multi-year low......NICE !!!!

While indices are making multi-year highs & VIX making multi-year lows, we have our favourite Doug Kass coming out of his bear camp & telling all of us again & again & again.. we all are "whistling by graveyard"...he used the same line @ S&P 500 1000 level....then 1025 then 1050 then 1100 level ...you get the picture...Now we closed @ 1360.48....

Internals were positive all over

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included C,JKS,TSL,
PCLN,ALTR,BWLD,CMG,RIMM,SINA....

Here is the RSI for all indices :

S&P 500 68.11

Nasdaq 69.91

Dow 71.28

Based on Ben Bernanke policy statement, there is a "reasonable chance" that we could see 1410 area in S&P 500 before its time to take another pause/pullback.

In my portfolio :

Sold BIDU

Added 100% LULU @ $99.37

Portfolio is APKT,LULU,POT

AH RIMM issued warning, stock down 11.17%

AH ER DECK issued poor guidance, stock down 7.88%

AH ER SWKS was a beat & guide UP, stock UP 13.99%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian markets UP

AH Gold & Silver UP

AH Oil Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS..some of you were having difficulty in leaving comment in my BLOG.This is an issue for Google support team for resolution.

Saleem

Market is mixed with Nasdaq Weak......

Market is trying to digest gains, but Nasdaq is weak....

Gold UP $13.30

Oil Down 51 cents

Canadian $ Down 5 tick @105.15

VIX Down 3.19% @ 14.86

In my portfolio :

Sold AKAM

Bought APKT @ $78.99

Portfolio is APKT,BIDU,LULU,POT....

Most stocks are Down

@ 1.55 following are green :

CMG,PCLN,ARUN,SINA,CF,RIMM,
ALTR,BWLD,JKS,STP,IGTE,NVDA,
ECA,SNDA,CSIQ,CTRN,AEM,GAME,
TSL,FSLR,SPWRA.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

POT beats on Sales & EPS....NICE !!!!

POT is reporting better than consensus results as follows :

Sales actual $2.2 Billion vs consensus of $2.01 billion..a beat of $199 million

EPS actual 84 cents vs consensus of 80 cents..a beat by 4 cents

Stock UP in pre-market.....Bid $58.30 Ask $59.90..closed @ $57.19

Extremely bullish about their pricing & margin going forward !!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Another record close in all indices....NICE !!!!

All indices are in multi-year highs.

Internals were positive all around.

Stocks which were UP included LULU,PCLN,SOHU,AMZN,
APKT,PLCM,FSLR,GOOG,SLW,ALTR,NFLX,JDSU,FNSR...

AH ER AKAM was a beat, BUT guided Down both EPS & Sales,
Stock Down 11.05%

AH ER BIDU was a beat & guided higher, stock Down .40%

BIDU conference call was confident & upbeat about their many
business segment.Analysts were pleased with answers given.

AH Futures UP

AH Asian markets UP

AH Gold,Silver & Oil UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

BIDU beats on Sales & EPS .... guiding higher than consensous...NICE !!!!

BIDU as expected beat on Sales & EPS in Q1......& guiding higher.

Here is the breakdown :

Sales  $372 million vs expectations of $367.75 million..Sales increased 88.3% YOY

EPS 48 cents vs expectations of 45 cents, EPS increased 122.8% YOY

Guiding Sales for Q2 $493.3 million to $503.9 million vs expectations of $484.71 million.....Guiding Sales higher by 72.4% YOY

BIDU AH  traded as high as UP $6, then Down $1.....NOW UP 90 cents ?????

Conference call @ 8 PM tonight.......

AH post ER BIDU is extremely volatile..generally down up to $5...then trades as per conference call in the morning.....which is generally UP.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Bought AKAM @ $41.....EOM

Sold APKT.....

Sold my entire position in APKT @ $84.18.....APKT was 60% of my portfolio.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Dow breaking out AGAIN....NICE !!!!!

Dow continuing on its making daily highs, while S&P 500 is also getting in this habit went to 1350 today.Nasdaq is ready to make new highs also.

Ben Bernanke as expected gave a boost to markets.Q& A with reporters starts @ 230 PM.

Gold UP $9.60

Oil UP 40 cents

Canadian $ Down 34 tick @ 104.79...socialist party is surging in polls to #2 spot,election to be held May 2nd in Canada.

Portfolio is APKT,BIDU,LULU,POT.....

As expected APKT estimates & price target were raised by many analysts. Highest target is $97 by Credit Suisse.

VIX UP .26% @ 15.66

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.54 following are RED :

BIDU,POT,PCLN,SINA,AAPL,GS,CF,
LDK,JKS,SOL,BWLD,MOS,IBN,MA,
V,SU,CNQ,TCK,LVS,STP,CRUS,IGTE,
ASIA,FMCN,SNDA,NTES,TTM,SNE,FWLT.

AKAM reports AH, expecting a beat.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

All Indices closed @ record HIGH......NICE !!!!

Indices are @ record level, some as high as back in 2007.....BUT some GURU will tell you continuously that we are due for a crash @ every high for the last 2+ year.....I am sure their followers are way down.....

Internals were strong all over by better than 2 to 1, new 52 wk highs expanded.

As we all know that higher highs gets series of new highs.

RSI @ close are :

S&P 500 63.59

Dow 65.76

Nasdaq 66.60

In any major bull move RSI tops out near 80........

Ben Bernanke is releasing Fed statement @ 12.30 PM, then Q&A with reporters......it will be prudent to do any buying before 12.30 release.....as BB will propel this market higher.......

Stocks which moved 1% or more included RIMM,SNDK,
CF,GOOG,ALTR,MA,V,CREE,JKS,MU,AMCC,IGTE,NVDA....

AH ER APKT Down on beat & higher guidance, Stock Down 2.7%

AH ER AMZN lowered EPS guidance, Stock Down .91%

AH LDK pre-announces lower guidance, Stock Down 4.99%

BIDU reports AH Wed, expecting a beat & guide UP.

POT reports before Open Thursday, expecting a beat & higher guidance for the year.

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil, Gold & Silver UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

APKT beats on Sales & EPS..Guidance increased also !!!!!!

APKT ER came as follows :

Sales expected $71.32 million, actual $74 million..a beat by $2.68 million or +3.76%

EPS expected 25 cents, actual 27 cents a beat by 2 cents or +8%

Guidance for full year 2011 raised as follows :

Sales previous $300 million  raised to $312.50 million taking mid point an increase of $12.50 million or +4.17%..year over year increase of +35% vs 30% previous...

EPS increased to $1.1250 from previous $1.05 an increase of 7.5 cents or +7.15%....year over year increase of 40%......

Conference call was upbeat & extremely confident of their position in market place which is growing...

APKT expect sequential growth in Sales & EPS every quarter.

APKT trading @ $75.26 bid vs close of $76.91 down $1.65...in after hour it went down to $69.01 & high was $79.03.....it is WISE to never sell before listening to conference call.

I expect analysts upgrade & stock price target increased.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

All Indices @ new high....NICE !!!!

All indices are making a fresh new high. I am sure David Rosenberg will ignore this factual milestone.

Market internals are positive by 2 to 1 or more......

Gold Down $7.50

Oil Down 60 cents

Canadian $ UP 25 tick @ 105

VIX Down 1.71% @ 15.50

In my portfolio :

Sold NFLX

Portfolio is APKT,BIDU,LULU,POT

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.11 following are RED :

BIDU,APKT,NFLX,PCLN,FFIV,RVBD,AMZN,
ARUN,PLCM,SOHU,SINA,CMG,AAPL,VMW,
SLW,CRM,GG,IAG,NTES,AEM,ABX....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS...Had to step out, thus a delay in this post.

Saleem

Monday, April 25, 2011

Nasdaq closed green...NICE !!!!

Nasdaq closed green, while other indices closed lower slightly.

Internals were mostly negative.

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included APKT,BIDU,
PLCM,SINA,SOHU,ARUN,TZOO.....

AH ER NFLX Down 5.29% on EPS guidance being lower than consensus.NFLX had a wild ride AH with high of  $263.00 & low of $237.66 a range of $25.34. I am Down 4.95% from my purchase. I am still unsure what i want to do on Tuesday.It will be dictated by overall market.

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil, Gold & Silver Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

NFLX beats Sales & EPS for Q1..guiding Sales higher BUT EPS lower.....

NFLX is down AH by about $13 on guiding EPS lower than consensus...

Q1 Sales $719 million vs consensus of $703.6 million..a beat by $15.4 million


Q1 EPS $1.11 vs consensus of 1.03..a beat by 8 cents


Q2 guidance ..Sales $778 million to $798 million vs expectations of $763 Million ..guiding HIGHER by $25 million.... taking mid point of $788 million....

Q2 EPS Guiding 93 cents to $1.15 vs expectations of $1.19..guiding lower by 15 cents ..taking mid point of $1.04 cents....

Conference call starts @ 6 PM EST

I am holding my shares waiting for conference call & will see how NFLX trades on Tuesday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Nasdaq green......NICE !!!

Indices are basing below break even line. Earning reports after close is expected to give another boost to indices.

Economic news continues to be above expectations in US.....

Gold UP $8.40

Oil Down 53 cents

Canadian $ UP 5 tick @ 104.80

VIX UP 7.76% @ 15.83

In my portfolio :

Sold MU

Bought APKT @ $78.15

Bought LULU @ $100.22

Bought NFLX @ $250.78

Portfolio is APKT,BIDU,LULU,NFLX,POT

NFLX reports AH, expecting a beat & guide UP...

APKT reports AH Tuesday, expecting a beat & guide UP

Majority of stocks are Down

@ 1.07 following are green :

APKT,BIDU,PLCM,SOHU,SINA,ARUN,VMW,
PCLN,SNDK,AKAM,LEN,NVDA,ASIA,FMCN,
IGT,GNK,AAPL.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Dow jumps to another high, closing above 12,500.....NICE !!!!

Dow making highs repeatedly, @ close Dow stands @ 12505.99...this was the level back in May 2008.

As any technician will tell you that new highs gets series of new highs.

Try not to predict a top in any strong stock or market, as long as you are diversified you could get maximum gain in your portfolio.

Since we have been basing since Feb 2011, we could be in a major run in markets.

IF you have been monitoring closely, many strong stocks are making new highs daily.

Earnings have been way better than many expected.

Hedge Funds, analysts pursued their shorts agenda since Feb through their proxies on CNBC.Everything was suppose to go downhill due to Middle East,Japan & Europe ......but after series of earning reports...CFO are saying what issues?

Even many companies whose earnings report were bad are seeing their stock move UP..a classic example is JNPR..missed on everything by wide margin BUT it keeps going UP daily since ER.

Many not so spectacular ER from RVBD,FFIV are being greeted as "exceptional" by TAPE...

When TAPE rallies stocks of lackluster ER or bad ER..then you can RELAX & KNOW that it is a "major bull market"

Many stocks are rallying from lows on a daily basis, which means that you can "almost" buy any strong stocks on minor intraday pullbacks.....another sign of TAPE turning on a dime.

RSI in Indices are as follows :

S&P 500 60.11

Nasdaq 62.50

Dow 62.93

In a bull market all indices are in sync as evident from RSI......

SO..IF you want to daytrade or play ER game ...then go with popular stocks as they tend to get lot of leeway from traders...do not jump ship AH...it MAY be a different story next morning.

Next week ER has NFLX on Monday, BIDU on Wed & POT on Thursday to highlight few names....please check earnings calender of stocks in your portfolio.I expect all of the above names to have earnings which should please traders.

Bottom line is , you were  PRUDENT to brave orchestrated selling by HF & Bears.....but NOW they are the ones chasing every stock to cover or buy.

We have many good days ahead in markets, Monday should be another strong day where record highs in S&P 500 & Nasdaq are in the cards.

Good luck with your OWN homework & comfort level.In a strong bull market many "boats are lifted"

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Enjoy your long weekend with friends & family.

Saleem

All Indices GREEN.....NICE !!!!

Indices are green while Dow is making another high.

Internals are positive & new 52 wk high list is expanding in NYSE.

Some stocks are digesting their gains before making another run @ new highs.

Gold UP $9.10 @ $1507.40

Oil UP 30 cents @ $111.75

Canadian $ UP 7 tick @ 105.01...@ new 3 yr+ high

VIX Down 2.59% @ 14.68..14.30 is yesterday's 52 wk low

In my portfolio :

Bought MU @ $11.35

Portfolio is BIDU,MU,POT

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.13 following are RED :

SINA,CMG,VMW,ECA,GOOG,BWLD,CRM,
IBN,M,CREE,LEN,SOL,STP,NVLS,CRUS,
FMCN,RCI,CSIQ,CTRN,FSLR,ISRG,GNK....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Dow closed @ another new high.....NICE !!!!

Indices came to life on upbeat earning reports. Many research firms were dead wrong about the state of technology.Japan impact was highly exaggerated & PC demand falling off the cliff was wrong also.

Dow made a new high of the year , 2nd time since Feb high.....

S&P 500 is only 13.72 points away from making a new high...

Nasdaq is only 38.01 points away from making a new high.

Nasdaq internals were super strong with UP volume leading by 6.20 to 1

Internals all over were strong by upto 5 to 1...

New 52 wk high were in solid lead in all indices....

All in all Nasdaq strength has completely changed its technical picture from weakest to strongest ..all in one trading day.....

VIX closed @ 15.07 Down 4.8%.....looks ready to SLUMP in the morning to new lows

RSI in all indices still has lot of room to run..it ranges from 57.22 to 60.80....

AH ER were greeted as follows :

AAPL +3.15%
QCOM +5.19%
FFIV +12.49%
YUM +5.74%
CMG <3.20%>

AH Futures are UP as follows :

DOW +48


S&P 500 +7


Nasdaq +22

PS...Futures were incorrectly shown in CNBC earlier ?


Futures are pointing to new highs in all indices, generally new highs begets series of new highs....


AH Futures Oil,Gold,Silver UP


BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.


Saleem

Indices UP 1.22% to 1.81%....NICE !!!!

Indices are UP strongly after strong ER from many companies. All indices above 50 DMA.

Oil UP $2.67

Gold UP $1.70

Canadian $ UP 15 tick @ 104.71

VIX Down 3.54% @ 15.27..it went to new 52 wk low @ 14.30.....VIX is showing some optimism that it MAY go UP ?

Portfolio is BIDU & POT

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.39 following are RED :

BIDU,POT,LULU,CF,SINA,RVBD,ECA,GS,
MOS,SOHU,CREE,BAC,FMCN,IAG,SNDA,
NTES,GAME,ISRG,GNK....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

All Indices closed green.....NICE !!!!

Indices have regained some technical strength by closing green.

Internals are getting positive also.....

Dow closed 77.08 points higher than 50 DMA.....while S&P 500 is 2.50 points away & Nasdaq is 9.46 points away from 50 DMA....

RSI @ close ranges from 48.01 in Nasdaq to high of 51.62 in Dow, S&P 500 is @ 48.43...

Hopefully, all indices will be above 50 DMA in Wed trading......

Wed AH ER from AAPL,CMG,FFIV & QCOM will set the stage for AH & Thursday trading..Japan MAY throw a big "monkey wrench" in guidance.High gasoline & food price MAY take a toll in CMG guidance ?

Thursday is the last trading day for this week & weekly Option Expiry...a "dangerous cocktail"....

SO..on Wed, I MAY take a further defensive posture.....means book profit ......something i will highly recommend for traders.......

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included BIDU,POT,LULU,
SLW,SINA,NFLX,MOS,SOHU,LEN,TCK,C,ARUN......

AH ER VMW was a beat & guide UP, stock UP 12.29%

AH ER IBM a beat & guide UP, stock Down 1.86%

AH ER YHOO a beat, stock UP 3.47%

INTC a beat & guide UP, stock UP 4.68%

RVBD a beat & guide UP, stock UP .81%

AH Futures UP

AH Asian markets UP

AH Oil, Gold, Silver UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

All Indices GREEN.....NICE !!!!

Indices are in positive territory after finding support yesterday.

Internals are mixed with Nasdaq internals  weak....

Gold UP $3..went to record high @ $1500

Oil UP $1.11

Canadian $ UP 80 tick @ 104.49

VIX Down 5.84% @ 15.97

In my portfolio :

Sold LULU

Portfolio is BIDU & POT

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.39 following are RED :

CMG,FFIV,GS,RIMM,GOOG,CRM,AKAM,LVS,
SOL,BAC,IGTE,NVDA,ASIA,CTRN,NTES,TSL,
FSLR,SPWRA,GNK.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, April 18, 2011

Indices closed Down from 1.06% to 1.14%.......

Indices fought their way back to close well above their lows.All indices closed near best level of the day.

Internals were decidedly negative @ close as listed below :

Down volume led by 9.38 to 1 in NYSE & 4.12 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 4.22 to 1 in NYSE & 3.92 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk lows were in the lead  with 26 in NYSE & 47 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 10.7% @ 16.96

Stocks which were UP 3% or more included LULU,SINA,SNDA,YOKU,
DANG,AKAM,LVS......

AH ER TXN guiding lower due to Japan, stocks down 1.52%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian markets Down

AH Oil Down

AH Gold & Silver UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down 1.65% to 1.80% on lower US debt rating....

Indices were trying to improve from Asian & European levels...then S&P lowered rating on US debt to negative .....this has compounded jitteriness from European debt concern & hiking of Chinese interest rates......

Market is holding near lower level...

Internals of the market is negative to the tune of 5 to 1...

We MAY see S&P 500 above 1300 level by close..which will be a victory for bulls !!!!!

CMF is still positive in all indices.....

RSI in indices are @ buy level of 40.96 to 43.85......

All indices are below 50 DMA......

VIX jumped 17.69% @ 18.03.....

Oil Down $2.73

Gold UP $8.40

Canadian $ Down 96 tick @ 93.27

Portfolio is BIDU,LULU & POT.....

Most stocks are Down...

@ 1.46 following are green :

LULU,RIMM,CF,AKAM,CREE,LVS,C,
BZH,SNDA,IGT,SINA....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, April 15, 2011

Market is "looking very good ".......

Market took many negative news in stride & turned last three days into positive picture.

You may ask... what is this "positive picture"...?

First... market is ignoring many bad earnings report..which is a sign of strong / ascending market.

Second...market is also ignoring many negative news out of China, which is the second biggest economy.All the facts about hotter inflation number did not do any damage....which is another sign of.....

Third..All the major indices have positive CMF....another sign of......

Fourth...All major indices are above 50 DMA..another sign of......

Fifth...RSI in major indices are from 52.15 to 57.00..which means , there is lot of room for it to go to new highs......most indices are within 1 to 3 days of making new highs..another sign of.....

Sixth...Poor VIX...flirting with 52 wk low..went to as low as 14.92 today, closed @ 15.32..52 wk low is 14.86..this is another sign we are going higher.....

I am sure ...you are getting the picture....SIX good pictures are better than thousand WORDS spoken on CNBC.....

OK...so....what to watch for NOW......

It is the earning reports.....which will be in "overdrive" next week.

Monday is C, Tuesday is RVBD,Wed is FFIV & AAPL....some of these names MAY be light in GUIDANCE & MAY selloff...BUT that is your chance to BUY on the CHEAP..depending on your comfort level.

There are many stocks breaking to new highs or near highs. They should be bought in a diversified manner......here is some names for you :

BIDU,LULU,SINA,APKT,ALTR,
ILMN,SPRD,MELI,TIBX,DECK,
CMG,BWLD,PLCM,TSL,NFLX,
BJRI,AMZN,PCLN....

Please make sure that you are comfortable in owning from this set. They are extremely volatile.

My portfolio remains BIDU, LULU & POT.

Good luck with your OWN homework.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

All Indices GREEN...NICE !!!!

Markets overcame negativity with Chinese inflation & fear of rate hike. All indices are green....Expecting a strong close !!!!!

Advancing stocks are in the lead....

Gold UP $13.40

Oil UP $1.05

Canadian $ Down 11 tick @ 103.95

VIX Down 4.92% @ 15.47...going to hit new 52 wk low......

Portfolio is BIDU,LULU,POT....

Most stocks are Down..

@ 11.32 AM following are green :

LULU,APKT,PCLN,CMG,RIMM,SLW,BWLD,
PLCM,MU,CRM,CCJ,V,CREE,CNQ,JDSU,
CIEN,FNSR,SNDK,NVLS,ARUN,NVDA,
GG,IGT,GAME,VAR,FWLT.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS..had to step out so early post.

Saleem

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Another constructive close....NICE !!!!

Markets closed near unchanged levels.TAPE was constructive overall.

AH GOOG missed EPS by 3 cents while beating top line by $200 million.

Reaction to GOOG EPS miss was a decline of 5.48% in stock price.GOOG  adding 2000 employees in reporting Q......

China reported as expected hotter than consensus consumer inflation of 5.4% vs expectations of 5.2%.Chinese GDP in Q1 came in @ 9.7% vs 9.8% in Q4...this should result in further tightening....it is a mixed news with economy slowing a touch BUT CPI hotter.....market should be able to digest this news.

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Gold, Silver & Oil UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down .13% to .51% as financials are down again.....

Indices are under pressure as financials are downgraded by GS.

Indices are fighting back again to go green. Market is showing resiliency again & again by not following overseas negativity.

Inflation concern in China is also putting pressure in equities & boosting precious metals.

Internals of the market are neutral in most indicator.

GOOG ER AH will set the tone for tech & market.....

Oil UP $1.09

Gold UP $17.60

Canadian $ UP 27 tick @ 104.14

VIX UP 1.42% @ 16.68....indicating equities to turn UP !!!!

In my portfolio :

Sold @ open BIDU,LULU & SOL

Bought BIDU back @ $146.59 much larger position

Bought LULU back @ $90.96

Portfolio is BIDU,LULU,POT......

Most stocks are Down

@ 1.21 following are UP :

BIDU,SINA,CMG,SLW,BWLD,PLCM,NVDA,
FMCN,GG,SNDA,NYX,GAME,TSL,AEM,
ABX.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

All Indices closed green.....NICE !!!!

Indices showed its strength by closing green.This was not an easy task based on reaction to JPM ER.

Financials are expected to be challenged. Once job growth is in overdrive then loan growth will come. It is wait & see attitude for now.

Internals of the market were mostly positive.

VIX Down .99% @ 16.92..giving indication that indices poised to go higher.....

Stocks which were UP 3% or more included BIDU,LULU,SOL,TSL,AG,
PLCM,IBN,SOHU,SINA,
RVBD,ARUN,JKS,CIEN,FNSR......

GOOG reporting AH, should be above expectations & commentary to be upbeat.

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil,Gold & Silver UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Negative financials putting pressure on market......

Sometimes financials negative TAPE can change the psychology of traders.JPM ER was greeted with optimism BUT it lasted only so long.....Dow & S&P 500 are RED while Nasdaq is showing strength with being green......

Internals of market are negative in NYSE BUT mixed in Nasdaq.....

Again, how we close is more important than intraday.

Gold UP $1.80

Oil Down 58 cents

Canadian $ Down 21 tick @ 103.65

Portfolio is BIDU,LULU,POT,SOL.....

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.02 PM folowing are RED :

PCLN,CF,NFLX,SLW,MOS,CREE,CNQ,BAC,
TCK,NVLS,EBIX,ASIA,GG,IAG,CTRN,JRCC,
AEM,ISRG,FWLT......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Indices closed Down from .78% to .96%.......

Indices were dealt with many negatives, but by close there was a sense of capitulation.

Internals of the market were as follows :

Down volume led by 2.09 to 1 in NYSE & 3.51 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.95 to 1 in NYSE & 3.27 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk low led by 43 to 24 in Nasdaq & were slightly positive in NYSE 24 to 22

All of the above stat gave a sense of capitulation in market........

AH ER RVBD gave a jolt to negativity in cloud stocks which were beaten down to the tune of 30%. RVBD pre-announced a positive ER...a rarity.......It was a beat in both Sales & EPS. Stock UP 13.84% closing AH @ $35.20.

Other cloud stocks also jumped in sympathy APKT UP 3.01%, FFIV 1.87%, ARUN 5.40%......

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil Down

AH Gold & Silver UP

My portfolio & $ weighting are BIDU 24.55%, LULU 37.38%, POT 27.41%, SOL 10.66%

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

RVBD pre-announces Q1 ER..... Beat in Sales & EPS...NICE !!!!

RVBD in a surprise move, pre-announces Q1 Sales & EPS.....

Sales to be between $163 to $164 million vs expectations of $161 million

EPS to be between 19 & 20 cents vs expectations of 18 cents

Stock UP $3.33 or 10.77%...

CC & official release is on Tuesday 19th of April,2011 AH...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down from .83% to .95%..

Indices are under pressure due to many negative development. First, level 7 designation for Japanese Nuclear issue, secondly AA ER ,third Oil & other commodities taking it on the chin......considering all that we are doing way better than Asian & European markets.

Oil Down $3.83

Gold Down $13.20

Canadian $ Down 54 tick @ 103.99

Internals are negative by 3 to 1....more new lows in Nasdaq.....

VIX UP 5.79% @ 17.55..kind of muted reaction to all the turmoil today.

In my portfolio :

Sold BIDU,JKS,RVBD, @ open........

Bought back BIDU @ $141.65

Added 110% POT @ $56.12

Bought LULU @ $88.10

Portfolio is BIDU,LULU,POT,SOL.....

Most stocks are down...

@ 1.41 following are green :

LULU,CMG,AAPL,NFLX,C,F,BWLD,PLCM,
AKAM,LEN,NVDA,RCI,ICE,VAR.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, April 11, 2011

Only Dow closed green .......

Dow is the only index which went to new high in April & is still showing relative strength by closing green.

Nasdaq & S&P 500 closed red on high volume...

Internals were negative

VIX closed down 7.16% @ 16.59

AH ER AA was a beat on EPS but a miss on revenue, stock down 3.15%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian markets Down

AH Oil, Gold, Silver down.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Dow green as earnings season starts tonight.......

Dow is green ahead of the earnings season which starts tonight.

AA is the first one to report AH..profit should be a beat......

Nasdaq is down .40% & S&P 500 negative by .23%...

Internals of the market are negative......

Oil Down $2.43

Gold Down $7.50

Canadian $ Down 3 tick @ 104.65

Portfolio is BIDU,JKS,POT,SOL,RVBD......

Most stocks are Down....

@ 1.43 PM following are green :

BIDU,RVBD,GS,CRM,MA,V,CREE,M,FMCN,
RCI,NTES,ISRG,GNK.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, April 8, 2011

Why we have not taken out highs in S&P 500 ?

Much fuss has been made of the fact that we reached highs in S&P 500 back in 2nd week of Feb......Today the biggest bear David Rosenberg interpretation of chart is concluding another bearish signal...for the record David never saw any bullish chart since March 09 low.....

IF we care to read the chart accurately, then we have gone UP in a straight line in S&P 500 from 1173.64 back in Nov 2010 to 1344.07 by 2nd week of Feb 2011..a move of 170.43 points or 14.52% in a straight line in a matter 13 weeks.......

Then came Egypt, Bahrain,Yemen,Libya & triple tragedy in Japan.......so market is trying to digest all the implication which MAY impede economic growth worldwide.......so we went sideways for 9 weeks ?

As of today's close, thanks to another political drama in US.....S&P 500 closed @ 1328.17 which is only 15.90 points away from Feb high.......I have NOT seen any market this RESILIENT ever......

I have every indicator which is telling me that we should be taking out Feb highs & go much HIGHER.

Here is the RSI read as of tonight :

Nasdaq 56.67

S&P 500 56.80

Dow 60.44

It IS important to follow chartists / technicians who have predicted the direction of this market since March 09 @ 666 & tonight we are @ 1328 which is 662 points higher or gain of 99.39%.......

I believe, that once we get political drama out of the way.....money will flow back in markets !!!!!

SO..it is important to IGNORE NOISE which comes consistently from the GENIUS of Prechter,Rosenberg,Adami,Kass..who have been WRONG for almost all of 662 points run.....

I still recommend overweight in markets until we have violated key support area like 50 DMA...then we will reassess......

Good luck with your diversified approach, some sectors are overbought like Oil, Gold ,Silver while others like Tech, Ag, Solar are oversold......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down .22% due to shutdown uncertainty......

Indices were ready to move UP, but politicians are playing their favourite role of inaction..spending "quality time on TV" instead of  "taking care of business".....so indices are down .22% waiting for "last minute dance"

Internals of the market are negative

Gold UP $15.30 into new record high

Oil UP $2.10 into new record high

Canadian $ UP 25 tick @ 104.54

VIX UP .18% @ 17.14

Portfolio is BIDU,JKS,POT,SOL,RVBD

Most stocks are Down

@ 1.58 following are green :

BIDU,RVBD,GOOG,SLW,FFIV,NFLX,CRM,
MA,V,CNQ,SU,JDSU,FMCN,GG,SINA,AEM,
ABX,SNE,GNK....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Indices closed slightly lower ....

Indices were under selling pressure due to fear about Tsunami in Japan.

By close Indices were slightly lower.

Market internals were negative.

AH ER STX was a beat, stock UP 7.56%

AH ER SATC guiding lower, stock Down 3.69%

AH EXPE announced splitting their business in two separate company, stock UP 13.88%

AH Futures UP

AH Asian markets UP

AH Gold, Oil & Silver UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices close to flatline, despite Japanese earthquake news......

 Indices are down less than .36%.Indices are showing resiliency despite earthquake news in Japan.

Internals of the market remains positive.

Gold Down $1.90

Oil UP $1.03

Canadian $ UP 16 tick @ 104.27

VIX Down .06% @ 16.89

Portfolio is BIDU,JKS,POT,SOL,RVBD.....

@ 1.15 following are Green :

BIDU,CMG,GOOG,PLCM,PCLN,AMZN,GS,
CRM,SOHU,M,LVS,SNDK,ARUN,NVDA,
FFIV,APKT,FMCN,SINA,NTES,ISRG,GNK.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Dow @ new high....NICE !!!!

Indices are fighting profit taking & Dow making new high for the year.

Internals of the market are strong.

S&P 500 is only 8.54 points away from making new high.

Nasdaq only 40.70 points from making new high.

Many traders are getting "nervous" about shifting sector rotation....this is normal for a strong bull market.

It is important to maintain a "diversified" portfolio.

IF you must overweight, it should be in lagging sector.

However.....there are warning sign flashing about market......

Bears as of tonight are @ record low of 15.7%...

Bulls are near record high of 57% highest was 62%......it is a great CONTRARY indicator.....

With any technical indicator it cannot be taken in isolation.You must cross check with RSI for the market which is NOT flashing sell......

Here is the RSI for indices @ close :

S&P 500 61.36

Nasdaq 61.89

Dow 63.79

IF..i have to set a guideline for my trading..i will be "super cautious" around 70 area in RSI.....

VIX also getting close to 52 wk low which is 14.86..VIX closed @ 16.90.....another cautionary signal as it is also a "contrary indicator"

In my portfolio :

Added 15% RVBD @ $34.29

Portfolio with RSI is BIDU 62.77, JKS 48.18, POT 58.13, SOL 52.14, RVBD 34.71

It is important to monitor this market closely NOW.......

AH Futures Down

AH Asian markets UP

AH Oil Down

AH Gold & Silver Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices green despite heavy profit taking......

Today we saw "old fashion" profit taking.

There was too much "euphoria" for Gold & Silver stocks...that is why they all turned lower.This sector is overbought.

Market is "catching its breadth" after recent run for last 10 days.....UPTREND remains intact.

Gold UP $4.60

Oil Down 38 cents

Canadian $ UP 52 tick to 104.25..a record high in many years.....

VIX UP 2.14% @ 16.88

Portfolio is BIDU,JKS,POT,SOL,RVBD......

Most stocks are DOWN....

@ 1.24 following are green :

GOOG,JACK,RIMM,FFIV,MU,GS,BAC,MA,V,
M,CREE,JDSU,FNSR,JASO,STP,NVLS,LSCC,
GG,IAG,SNDA,BRCD,CTRN,ICE,NDAQ,NYX,
GAME,TSL,ISRG,TTM,VAR,GNK.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Constructive close in indices despite China raising rates....

Nasdaq mangaed to close in green, while Dow & S&P 500 slightly lower.Not bad considering 4th interest rate hike in China.

Nasdaq closed UP despite slumping GOOG & AAPL based on anti-trust concerns & rebalancing.

Internals of the market were positive.

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included SLW,BWLD,M,LVS,LULU,
TCK,CIEN,FNSR,JASO,
SNDK,AG,TZOO,APKT.....

AH AMSC warned about horrendous revenue shortfall, stock down 40.19%....

AH futures UP

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Gold & Silver UP

AH Oil down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices green from .25% to .56% despite Chinese rate hike.....

Indices are all UP despite couple of negative force in the market.Indices are ignoring Chinese rate hike & AAPL downward weighting.

Oil Down 42 cents

Gold @ record high UP $21.50

Canadian $ also hitting new 3 yr high UP 38 tick @ 103.80

VIX Down 5.66% @ 16.51

Portfolio is BIDU,JKS,POT,SOL,RVBD.....

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.17 following are RED :

BIDU,POT,GOOG,AAPL,FSLR,PLCM,MU,
NFLX,CRM,GS,AKAM,IBN,SOHU,CREE,
SU,ARUN,EBIX,ASIA,SINA,SNDA,JRCC,
MFC,NYX,SNE,GNK,FWLT......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

China raising rates for 4th time & AAPL being weighted down ?

Markets are under slight pressure due to China raising interest rates for the 4th time & AAPL weighting is being reduced by Nasdaq in Nasdaq 100 / QQQQ from 20.49% to 12.33%....which forces selling due to rebalancing by HF & Institutions.AAPL rebalancing is effective May 2nd.

China is forced to increase interest rates as inflation is ticking up in Chinese retail & wholesale.

I expect markets to close GREEN....

Any weakness in pre-market & @ open should be bought.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, April 4, 2011

Dow & S&P 500 closed UP, while Nasdaq closed down slightly.....

Today indices were mixed @ close with Dow & S&P in green while Nasdaq in Red.....

Oil Closed @ $108.47 in futures, highest level since Sep 2008.

Silver closed @ $38.494, highest close since Feb 1980.

Internals of stock markets were mixed.

Stocks which were UP close to 2% or UP included BIDU,POT,CF,
SLW,LULU,APKT,TCK,MOS,
SOHU,MA,SNDK,ARUN,TZOO.

AH TXN is buying NSM @ huge premium of 78%. NSM UP 72.85%

Many Chip stocks UP AH in sympathy / hope.

AH Futures UP

AH Asian markets Mixed

AH Oil Down

AH Gold & Silver UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Green...NICE !!!!

Indices are green......

Oil UP 15 cents

Gold UP $4.40

Canadian $ Down 43 tick @ 103.39

VIX UP .57% @ 17.50

In my portfolio :

Sold SLW

Bought POT @ $60.77

Portfolio is BIDU,JKS,POT,RVBD,SOL.......

My portfolio is a trading portfolio. My sell has some comparative logic when i am swapping with something else. Idea is to make money either by daytrading or swing trading..

Most stocks are UP....

@ 12.34 following are RED :

JKS,SOL,AAPL,GOOG,CMG,FSLR,PLCM,MU,
GS,LEN,CIEN,FNSR,C,STP,NVLS,CRUS,NVDA,
JASO,TSL,ASIA,RCI,SNDA,ICE,JRCC,NDAQ,
NYX,GAME,SNE,GNK.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, April 1, 2011

Indices closed UP .31% to .50%...NICE !!!!

All indices closed green. Gains were kept in check by weekly Option Expiry.

Dow did go through previous high with ease.

S&P 500 & Nasdaq are within striking distance of taking old highs.

Internals were Mixed.

New 52 wk highs are in overdrive, the best i have seen for months, 374 in NYSE & 238 in Nasdaq.

RSI in indices are as follows @ close :

S&P 500 60.23

Nasdaq 60.25

Dow 62.04

Based on the direction of RSI, we are all set to go HIGHER.

Economic picture is getting better in US, which is the largest economy.

Job creation is picking UP & unemployment is coming down. Hedge Funds & Institutions will increase their exposure to Equity going forward.

Japan crisis is creating headache for many technology companies. Today cloud stocks took it on the chin. RVBD was pummelled 8.15% on 88% more volume. FFIV down 8.78% on triple volume. It is tough to call a bottom on high volume selling as HF are getting out. Looks like today MAY be a "capitulation" day.

In my portfolio :

Sold POT

Added entire position in SOL @ $10.05

Bought BIDU @ $138.40

Portfolio is BIDU,JKS,SOL,RVBD,SLW.....

Here is my portfolio weighting & RSI @ close :

RVBD 33.11% 35.49

JKS 26.32% 50.69

BIDU 18.62% 73.84

SLW 12.31% 54.82

SOL 9.64% 54.12

BIDU is rated for "breakout" @ $140.13 with a target of $151.40 by www.stockconsultant.com.

This is a difficult market for value investor as value gets cheaper & cheaper.Momentum stocks are back in vogue & making new highs.Some of the notable ones are :

BIDU
CMG
PCLN
LULU

I am trying to mix value & momentum , hoping it will work out better .

Oil closed @ $107.94, a new high in many years. Oil is giving clear signal that worldwide economy is in "growth mode"

VIX closed down 1.47% @ 17.48...means fear is low...which bodes well for further rally.

Good luck with your OWN homework. Idea is to regroup & make money.

Next post Monday around 1 PM.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Dow @ new high....NICE !!!!

All indices are UP as jobs data came in better than expected.Unemployment is now @ 8.8% lowest since March of 09...we all know what happened in March of 09.....stock market hit the lowest point.....

Dow made it into record book by vaulting UP to 12,419.71 which is way higher than previous high of 12,391.29....

S&P 500 & Nasdaq are next to hit the record book.

Oil UP 79 cents to record level of $107.51

Gold Down $9.70..still @ $1429.20

Canadian $ UP 62 tick @ 103.72 a new 4 yr high.....

In my portfolio :

Bought a tiny position of SOL @ $10.42

Portfolio is JKS,POT,SOL,RVBD,SLW.....

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.54 following are RED :

RVBD,JKS,SOL,SLW,FFIV,APKT,FSLR,PLCM,
AAPL,RIMM,MU,CREE,AMCC,JDSU,FNSR,CIEN,
JASO,STP,SNDK,CRUS,ARUN,NVDA,GG,CSIQ,
ICE,BRCD,AEM,TSL,ABX,SPWRA,GNK.....

Cloud stocks are under pressure due to many analysts notes,
some downgrading or reducing targets.As i have noted in my
analysis Japan MAY be a downer for many techs due to their
"extraordinary impact" caused by many calamities.Analysts are
saying that FFIV ER may MISS & further guide LOWER.
RVBD being mentioned due to "valuations issue". I personally
believe that this JAPAN factor has been discounted NOW.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem