Sunday, November 30, 2008

NEVER fight the TAPE..NEVER fight the FED$$$$

"Never fight the tape & Never fight the Fed" ARE old saying...championed by many including Dr Marty Zweig.....

There IS lot of WISDOM in the above investing approach......

Some of us including ME believed too much in Fed...without realizing that this time it IS going to take a while before Fed ACTIONS will matter.....

As we were facing a "brand New set of issues"due to UNCONTROLLED greed..it was a HIT & MISS approach by Fed......

Sheila Bear was "right on the money" but BB & Paulson were ignoring her pointed approach.....

FINALLY with C resolution we are covering all bases by Fed,FDIC to deal with horrendous liquidity & mortgage adjustment issues......

Market IS taking "great comfort in seeing all the pieces together FINALLY"

In case IF you are WONDERING where IS the strength in the market coming from? especially when all the TECHNICIANS "threw in the TOWEL" and agreed in UNANIMITY that :

-Market is going LOWER to Dow 4000

-S&P 500 860 IS an impossible resistance

This just goes to prove that even the best minds gets separated from their $ with their WRONG conclusions.....

Markets has moved UP substantially since hitting INTRADAY LOWS which IS listed on Yahoo Finance :

S&P 500 low 741.02 Friday Close 896.24 +155.22 or +20.95%

Dow low 7392.27 Friday Close 8829.04 +1436.77 or +19.44%

Nasdaq low 1295.48 Friday Close 1535.57 +240.09 or +18.6%

Majority of the above GAINS were in last 5 days.......

SO......what IS the message of the market?

The message IS......

When everyone IS CONVINCED(Fundamental base or Technical base) that we are heading LOWER...then market TURNS UP on a DIME......

Most of US including ME were WRONG on the DOWNSIDE tape......BUT I can ASSURE you I will NOT be WRONG on the UPSIDE move in the TAPE......

I am fully invested with five different ETF......

Most of my ETF have participated in this RUNUP except Crude Oil.....which should JOIN the RUNUP ......

All my ETF are BULL Pro Beta means Double the ride UP.....

Here is my description of all my Bull ETF :

HXU.TO Toronto Top 60 Stocks

HOU.TO Nymex Crude

HSU.TO S&P 500

HQU.TO Nasdaq 100

HJU.TO Emerging Markets

I am looking @ adding one more ETF which will be in world mining stocks........

So....you may ask why ETF & NOT stocks???

Simple answer is ...that it is SAFER through ETF and individual stocks are still vulnerable to serious decline based on their Sales & Earning projections.....

These ETF are Double BULL...so upside IS tremendous......

Markets are looking BEYOND current KNOWN challenges.......It will NOT be WISE to keep looking in REAR-VIEW.....most economic numbers will be backward looking.....while Markets are ALWAYS forward looking & predict economy 6 to 9 months in advance.....

In case you are still not with me.....markets STARTED turning LOWER back in August of 2007 as it was predicting the ONGOING liquidity mess.....

So after turning LOWER to decades LOW in 16 months.....

Markets are looking towards UPCOMING economic RECOVERY !!!!!

So start your OWN equity RECOVERY program with your OWN due diligence about ECONOMY & how to play the CHANGE.......

CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN !!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, November 29, 2008

BUY rated stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

CHKP,CUTR,DISCA,INFA,ITRN,PAAS,RBCN,
RMBS,WDSC,ZBRA,WSII,FNM,FRE,KO,LAZ,
NPD,PCZ,PZE,TKC,WMT,USM,UXG,CLS.

Next post by 10AM Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically STRONG stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

Following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

AUY,CCJ,OSIP,BLUD,SGP,PENN,COCO,HOLX,
SMG,SI,DBE,MICC,OMCL,ESI.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, November 28, 2008

DOW & S&P 500 Green 5 day's in a ROW....$$$$

Markets are NOT afraid of BEARS.....who have been short for 5 day's NOW...remember the famous call "SHORT S&P 500 @ 860....Today S&P 500 closed @ 896.22......

NASDAQ closed UP 4 out of 5 day's in a row......

All indices closed near High of the day..NASDAQ closed @ the highest level.....

Toronto markets will go ON till 4PM.....

AAPL & RIMM were RED.....still NASDAQ closed GREEN & HOD...

Markets are looking BEYOND economic reports which will be negative for few more months....

OIL pulled back today.....but it is coming back from the LOD...

GOLD continues its ramp UP...

Potash commodity prices are near HIGH still.

Canadian politics is a minor negative for Canadian $ today...I expect Canadian $ to be very strong on Monday based on our GDP report to be released on Monday before open....Canadian economy IS in much better shape than rest of the world.....

In my ETF portfolio @ 1.13PM :

HXU.TO UP 37 cents

HOU.TO Down 28 cents

HSU.TO UP 14 cents

HQU.TO Down 25 cents

HJU.TO Down 30 cents

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

By 10AM Saturday..I will list technically weak/strong/buy rated stocks.

Saleem

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Toronto Closed UP 1.3%...UP 5 day's in a row..NICE !!!

Toronto Stock Exchange closed @ High of the day ...UP 5 day's in a row.....

Among the green were :

All of my ETF were GREEN.... except OIL.TO which was down 7 cents

Goldcorp UP 88 cents

ABX UP 85 cents

POT UP $3.43

CNQ UP $1.54

Oil stocks were UP while Oil was down 34 cents.

Can Wall Street go UP 5th day in a row ?..I think YES !!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

World's Stock markets are UP !!!!

World's stock market are UP :

Nikkei +1.95%

Hang Seng +1.37%

FTSE +1.77%

DAX +2.30%

CACS + 2.54%

TSE +.4% @ 2.23 PM..close @ 4 PM

OIL Down 54 cents

Gold UP $5.70

In my portfolio :

HXU.TO Down 7 cents

HOU.TO Down 8 cents

HSU.TO UP 10 cents

HQU.TO UP 8 cents

HJU.TO UP 2 cents

@ 2.27 PM in TSE :

RIM Down 70 cents

POT UP $4.30

AGU UP 29 cents

TD Down 12 cents

ECA Down 43 cents

CNQ UP 72 cents

Toronto market is on HOLD as we are waiting for an economic agenda in the parliament @ 4 PM today....

For play in US Energy area.....UNG,OIH , USO ,XLE,DIG & other ETF ..

Enjoy the Turkey & the company.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

HAPPY Thanksgiving !!!!

Markets gave a timely boost of CONFIDENCE by closing sharply HIGHER four days in a row...

All indices were strong with NASDAQ UP the most ...a whopping 4.6%......more than made UP for yesterdays small loss.....

Canadian & world markets are open on Thursday.......

Enjoy your get together with family & friends...

A very happy Thanksgiving !!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS...I will post how Canadian markets are doing on Thursday as all of my ETF trades in Toronto plus many big stocks trade in Toronto like RIMM,POT,AGU,GG,ABX,ECA,CNQ,TD.....

Saleem

GREEN FOUR days in a row $$$$

Dow & S&P 500 are green four days in a row...

Nasdaq is UP 3 out of 4 days and is the the STRONGEST index today...

I am sure Jimmy the Cramer & Macke the shouting giant are licking their wounds NOW....how is that sell sell sell biting .....

Never believe that anyone is SMARTER than the market.....

Biggest money is made when everyone is selling..by buying LOW LOW & LOW....nothing WRONG in holding some position when prices do not make sense on the downside....

CONFIDENCE HAS returned to Wall Street...thanks to DAILY briefing by President elect Barak Obama...who actually KNOWS what he is talking about...noticed that he does NOT have to SHOUT or have props of DING DONG.....HIS HUMILITY also speaks VOLUME...NOT CNBC KNOW IT ALL yelling team......

In my portfolio :

HOU.TO UP 17 cents

HXU.TO Down 8 cents..because of BCE FIASCO

HQU.TO UP 23 cents

HJU.TO UP 23 cents

HSU.TO UP 5 cents

@ 12.02 PM following are green in my watch list:

AAPL,RIMM,LDK,STP,SOLF,WFR,V,C,TKC,
CTRN,ICE,IGT,NDAQ,WYNN,MA,BIDU,SOHU,
NYX,ABX,GG,KGC,IBN,AGU,ISRG,UYM.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Dow & S&P 500 closed GREEN 3 days in a ROW !!!

Dow & S&P 500 closed green 3 days in a row......an unusual event in a long time....

Markets are giving signal that old theories MAY not work anymore......

Too many investors/traders believe that we are going LOWER based on Bull/Bear ratios.....it is becoming a CONTRARY indicator......

If we close GREEN on Wed...all participant of this market will feel lot better @ thanksgiving time...which will build CONFIDENCE....

ETF is a great way to participate in the UP move based on your sector preference......

US$ continues to go down ...which IS also a BULLISH sign as FEAR is going away from Stocks & RISK taking is coming back in vogue...

VIX is also retreating to 60.9% or Down 5.87% on a MINOR UP .66% on S&P 500 move today...

Lot of BULLISH signals appearing from nowhere.....sign of very good things to come !!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets to look ahead to resolution of economic challenges ....

Market are certainly looking forward to resolution of pressing economic challenges....

Home price news was Down almost 17% yoy...

BHP cancels merger with Rio Tinto....

GDP came in @ negative .5%.......

BUT.....

Markets are TRYING to digest all these NEGATIVE news ????

SIGN of good things to come in markets.....

Most technicians like Carter Worth & others are predicting rangebound markets ......

SO.....

The question IS....

If all followers of Jimmy the Cramer & other technicians SOLD or are selling.....then where will be the next wave of selling to come FROM?????looks like there will be more buyers in future???

I personally think that markets are digesting gains & negative economic news today....

Markets will work its way higher going forward with usual back & forth tape.

Obama announced OMB appointments today and answered TOUGH questions with EASE & CONFIDENCE...another CONFIDENCE building MOMENT....

In my portfolio :

Added more HOU.TO cost went down $5.50

Bought another ETF HSU.TO a double bull on S&P 500..cost $6.84

HOU.TO Down 53 cents

HXU.TO Down 31 cents

HQU.TO Down 16 cents

HJU.TO Down 15 cents

HSU.TO unchanged...I am down 28 cents per share

@ 12.37 PM following are green in my watch list :

MON,IPI,GOOG,BIDU,GS,MA,V,TOL,PHM,LVS,SGP,
STP,YGE,C,CTRN,ICE,JRCC,XLF,FWLT.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, November 24, 2008

All Indices closed UP from 4.93% to 6.47%...NICE !!!

Markets are dealing with lot of positives from proper injection of funds to C to Barak Obama announcing his complete economic team of ALL STARS......

Obama is using words which ensures CONFIDENCE like saying he wants to JOLT the economy with STIMULUS & Job creation programs......he is pushing URGENCY & READINESS on DAY 1 of his administration.....

Looks like WEAKNESS needs to be BOUGHT.....

I added another ETF HJU.TO which is for Emerging markets Double bull....My cost $3.12 which was bought @ 84.82% discount from HIGH......

My portfolio is HOU.TO,HXU.TO,HQU.TO & HJU.TO...all double bull ETF.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Citi rescue was properly done...brings CONFIDENCE !!!

Citi rescue was a confidence builder where existing shareholders were NOT wiped out...unlike FRE,FNM.......

Markets are celebrating this confidence building effort....by bidding all important FINANCIALS UP in a huge move......

As we all KNOW that NO rally can take HOLD unless financials participate......

IS today the FINAL straw which will break the DOOM & GLOOM on wall street.....I like to think SO......

Bear game is OVER as a TREND......

Watch for HUGE short covering going forward.....

In my portfolio:

Added another ETF @ open HQU.TO a double NASDAQ 100 bull in Toronto my cost $5.15 ..it is DOWN 74.5% @ my purchase price....

Portfolio is HOU.TO,HXU.TO & HQU.TO all double bull ETF.....

Canadian $ is UP 3 cents against US$...a huge move which helps my short US$.....

HOU.TO UP 50 cents

HXU.TO UP 67 cents

HQU.TO UP 33 cents...I am UP 22 cents per share

@ 12.37 PM following are UP in my watch list :

AAPL (many analyst notes),RIMM,C,GS,POT,
JASO,SOLF,WFR,TAN,V,TKC,CTRN,CCJ,
JRCC,WYNN,SOHU,NYX,SPWRA,FSLR,ISRG,
XLF,SNE,FWLT,TOL,PHM,GG,UYM,UYG.

Obama press conference was pointed & assuring of SOLUTIONS.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Obama ,Economy & Stock Market.....

Obama being the president-elect is a major positive for the market.....

WHY???

He is BRIGHT...

He is coming with FRESH ideas....

He has the support of MOST Americans...

He can articulate his ideas in a CLEAR & POINTED manner...

He IS NOT WAFFLING about the ENORMITY of problems faced by the world & US economy.

His approval rating IS very HIGH.......

Also with Obama all the CONFUSION about Paulson CHANGING tactics will be gone.....TALK FIRST ......THINK LATER is NO WAY to deal with HORRENDOUS issues......

Paulson has single handedly made the problem WORSE by DENYING it FIRST & then CHANGING his mind many times about the REASON & SOLUTION.....on wall street CREDIBILITY MATTERS.....

Obama has already laid out a plan for creating 2.5 million jobs by end of 2010........

How many Jobs initiative did the current administration DID...answer ZERO & on the contrary they had plans to CUT more jobs in financial institutions like BSC,LEH & AUTOS.....a SAD approach to the worst crisis in history.....

Every initiative in current administration was last minute & reluctance was EVIDENT.....with partisan politics @ centre stage on TV......

Every investors/traders/citizens were sick & tired of TV talk with NO focus on SOLUTIONS.....field day for Photo OP with callous disregard to the welfare of US & the entire world economy......

NOW.....

The page turns to Solutions only.....

Already OBAMA has a plan to CREATE 2.5 million jobs......in next 23 months starting in Feb 09...

World & US needs a DOER & a real Leader...which we have in Obama...who can LEAD with ACTIONS......

Stock market should behave much better than before as CONFIDENCE will built from here..instead of reading how many jobs we are losing..we will hear ACTION for creating new jobs...

I personally like ETF for playing any UPSWING which may be coming....

WHY ETF ???

Because it IS a SAFER way to participate in markets.....

There are many ETF which has different sector focus....so it IS good to KNOW what is in each ETF......

So.....

We have Obama with Job action which will TURN the economy in a big way ...which will be GREAT for stock market.......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, November 22, 2008

BUY rated stocks for Market bounce for Obama team!!!

Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

GMCR,HMSY,OMRI,RGLD,ABX,GG,GLD,
HTX,NJR,VR,DGL,IAU,USQ,EGO,KGC.

Next post 10AM Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically STRONG stocks for Market bounce for Obama team!!!

Following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

SBIB,ASA,UDRL,IAG,AUY,MAXY,AXYS.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically WEAK stocks for Market bounce for Obama team!!!

Following stocks are showing technical weakness based on various formations.Please do your OWN analysis by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

ROCM,USNA,RVSN,BGG,PJC,HSY,KBH,
AMR,JOSB.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, November 21, 2008

New Treasury Secretary news brings CONFIDENCE to markets !!!

Markets were hovering with RED when news of new treasury secretary Tim Geithner hit the wire.....& market rocketed UP to 5% to 6.5%...NICE !!!!

Markets were suffering from lack of confidence as treasury secretary appointment was CRUCIAL to bring confidence back to the markets......

As most of the issues on Wall Street ARE linked to Treasury being involved..so a working secretary from Obama administration was crucial in linkup & NEW direction.....

Monday President-elect Obama will reveal his cabinet....which will add to the confidence building process.....

I added one more ETF which is HXU.TO which is an index on Toronto Stock Exchange top 60 stocks..My cost $8.88.....Toronto exchange had the biggest drop on Thursday since 87 crash..I bought this @ 75.7% discount from its high of $36.56...it actually hit a new Low of $8.35 today...

I have two ETF now HOU.TO & HXU.TO....

By 10AM Saturday...I will list technically weak/strong/buy rated stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

All Indices went to new 52 wk LOW.....

Markets are still showing weakness as all of them went to new 52 wk lows today...

Today is Option Expiry....so VOLATILITY rules......

Oil continues its weakness..down another 19 cents after dipping another 100 cents....Oil short trade IS getting crowded....so a SNAP BACK is IMMINENT.....

HOU.TO is UP 5 cents....it is my crude ETF

@ 12.01 folowing are green in my watch list :

AAPL,RIMM,UYM,TAN,STPJASO,SOLF,SOL,
IBN,POT,AGU,IPI,FXI,BIDU,DIG,ISRG,KGC,GG,
TKC,ICE,CCJ,SOHU,VLO,ABX,SPWRA,FSLR,SNE,
FWLT.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Where IS the bottom ????

Markets sank to closing low in several years or even MORE than a decade......

Oil slumped to new LOWS....

Louise Yamada Technician NOT convinced that we are even close to any LOWS......she is predicting S&P 500 first to 600 then to 400......

New 52 week LOW list hit a more than CAPITULATION low of 1402 on NYSE & 1204 on NASDAQ......this SMELLS like a near term bottom to me...BUT what do I know.....

MOST stocks are trading @ levels even die-hard BEAR would NOT have predicted only 3 months ago......

Yes...there is recession in US & Europe..but most of the world is seeing GROWTH of as high as 9% in China & even India.......

Are financial markets too PESSIMISTIC......looks like it......

We have discounted most stocks to DEPRESSION levels...Is It JUSTIFIED????

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

DOW went below intraday 52 wk low......

All indices have made fresh new lows for the year......

Will technicians /traders/investors be encouraged to buy @ these levels.....

Markets are certainly deeply OVERSOLD.....so a technical BOUNCE will not surprise anyone.....

The problem is...that LOW begets new LOW...

Crude Oil is @ multi year LOW today.....some are hoping for below $50 close.....

Many stocks & ETF are @ new 52 wk LOWS today.....

My Crude ETF HOU.TO is Down 54 cents....

@12.00 following are green in my watch list :

SOL,BIDU,LULU,NDN,DUG,TKC,CTRN,YHOO,
VAR.

BLOG Does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Traumatic close on Wall Street....

Markets are in total disarray....tumbling through all support on a closing basis & on an intraday basis......

Dow is only 214 points away from intraday LOW......

Downside volume was horrendous...57 to 1 on NYSE & 49 to 1 on NASDAQ....these extreme selling pressure could amount to MAJOR capitulation in normal BEAR market...but this IS between BEAR & DEPRESSION...so who KNOWS when extreme selling is really defined....

Most technicians,traders & investors got this market WRONG and proved to be TOO OPTIMISTIC.....as this IS a UNIQUE set of events UNFOLDING @ the same time......

Financials are hitting deep new LOWS...Not a good sign......

So...we all sit & WAIT for this market to TURN decisively......which MAY be months AWAY.....

Today Fed IS predicting slowdown till middle of 09.......

It MAY be WISE to take FEW months WAIT & SEE attitude......Feb 09 MAY be a BETTER time to see the DAMAGE in WORLDWIDE economy.......& take it from there !!!!!

I am staying with Crude Oil ETF as my LONELY position......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Nasdaq went to new 52 wk LOW.....

Markets are having NO traction despite severely OVERSOLD conditions......

NASDAQ breached its 52wk low today...THIRD time since Oct 10Th low......

S&P 500 came within 9 points of intraday LOW......

Technicals for market are UNHEALTHY......

Autos hearings are highlighting economic challenges faced by US economy.....which is SPOOKING confidence for traders/investors......

LDK ER did not give lift to its stock prices or sector as MARGINS are becoming a serious issue for this sector....

My oil ETF is swinging with Oil prices which is near 22 months LOW......currently UP 1 cent...

In my watch list only ISRG,GG,SGP are green......@ 12.49 PM.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Markets tested support AGAIN.......& closed Green !!!

Markets are extremely JITTERY again......

Another test of support & a GREEN close.....

LDK reports before OPEN....2009 guidance & MARGIN will be the key...

Sold UYM.....

Only have crude Oil ETF HOU.TO

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

All indices holding support...good sign !!!!

All indices are trading above lows and moving Higher so far....

HPQ gave the boost by releasing ER & guidance above consensus.....

WMT ER was also OPTIMISTIC..which helped changed the NEGATIVE sentiments among traders.

Solar stocks are NOT getting a break as SOL guided LOWER for Q4 & Q1.....

In my ETF :

UYM Down 17 cents

HOU.TO UP 4 cents

@ 12.04 PM following are green in my watch list :

RIMM,AAPL,MON,AGU,POT,IPI,ISRG,GS,MA,V,DIG,
SNY,SGP,GG,PHM,TOL,QLD,SSO,ICE,YHOO,SOHU.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, November 17, 2008

Will Dow HOLD 7773.71 ????

Dow tape was very NEGATIVE......as we closed below Oct 10Th which was 8451.19 and also below Nov 12Th which was 8282.66........

Dow is still ABOVE intraday LOW on Oct 10Th of 7773.71 & close of 8175.77 on Oct 27Th...Dow closed today @ 8273.58......only 2 points above Low of the day.......

What is the tape telling us ?

It is telling US that there IS tremendous FEAR which IS preventing the indices to make any GAINS.....

VIX the fear index closed UP 2.84 to 69.15....UP 4.28%.....

Technicals have NO meaning in this FEAR driven TAPE.....

No idea what this market IS waiting FOR.......

Everybody is CONFUSED including ME...as valuations are RIDICULOUSLY LOW...BUT NO BUYERS????

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

So...what happened to DOW 6000???

Many market pundits have been trumpeting Dow 6,000 or LOWER.......

So...why the markets are able to trade HIGHER from October 10Th LOWS????

Why..all the GLOOM & DOOM is NOT taking this market to LOWER LOWS????

I wish all the pundits on CNBC can ARTICULATE this in an understandable language...but do NOT count on it....

Nobody is called back on CNBC for making "STUPID predictions".......they do not have a show which is called "DUMB MONEY" or "HOW WRONG CAN YOU GET" or "CAN YOU EXPLAIN THIS CALL"

Markets are certainly giving the SIGNAL that DISCOUNTING of all issues are coming to an END.......

As this is a once in a CENTURY phenomenon...there is NO pattern which anyone CAN follow...so the best strategy is LIMITED exposure in ETF with best potential SHOULD work out pretty good !!!!

I am only in ETF......

UYM Down 10 cents

HOU.TO UP 3 cents

@12.07 PM following are green in my watch list:

RIMM,MON,CMED,IBN,POT,FXI,NDN,KGC,
DIG,PHM,SSO,CTRN,CCJ,SAY,SPWRA,SNE,
FWLT.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, November 16, 2008

World Economic FACTS vs FICTION????

World economy IS facing challenges like so many other times in history.....

What IS different this time that the financial institutions were acting like "house of cards"...no real assets but lot of bad debts which were HIDDEN.....this time it was NOT "off balance sheet items"but nobody was monitoring WORTHINESS of value of assets in balance sheet"

Worldwide there was neither MONITORING of real RATIOS...but there was a GO GO mentality towards real estate......which were OVERVALUED by minimum 25%......

Unlike depression era...there was a QUICK & COORDINATED response from all central banks around the world.....to deal with this "horrendous SPIRALLING out of control situation".....

Central banks told all banks to clean up their balance sheet ASAP thus trillions in write downs & shore UP their balance sheet with issuance of equity & preferred.....Central banks also assisted with overnight lending facility by accepting sub-par assets.....

Worldwide central banks have reduced interest rates to as low as less than 1% in Japan & 1% in US.......

G20 meeting agreed on solutions to most issues faced by world economy..including TIGHTER & CLOSE monitoring of banks worldwide......

Worldwide liquidity HAS improved substantially.......

Inter-bank borrowing rates have come down to historical levels as per LIBOR.....

Worldwide there IS focus on "stimulus package" to ensure GROWTH......

Credit squeeze/crunch caused a PANIC in equity markets as investors pulled their money out...thus hedge funds had to DELEVERAGE "big time".....thus avalanche of MARGIN selling TSUNAMI day after day.......

VIX came close to hitting 100.....an index of FEAR.......

There has been many meeting of G7,G20,economic power houses in China,Brazil & now in Washington...with one FOCUS only.....NOT only to DEAL with what CAUSED the current economic mess but to PREVENT it from happening AGAIN EVER....

With this LEVEL of FOCUS & many UNANIMOUS recommendations........which should be agreed & implemented in March 09.......things could NOT be out of control ANYMORE.....

Yes ....there will be many side issues like GM,F & Chrysler which WILL be played UP on CNBC for rating purposes & FEAR mongering......but in the scope of things those will NOT impact GDP in any meaningful way......US & world economy CAN easily absorb issues like Auto companies in US need to face REALITY......No business should continue unless their COST structure makes sense...that is economics 101......you do not make things which nobody wants......

Remember the days on CNBC when Oil prices was discussed every 15 minutes ...because it was going UP....now that Oil has come down over 60%.....but there is NO analysis of benefits of this drop even once a day?????

Oil drop is adding benefit in several trillions of $ worldwide...but NO in-depth analysis on CNBC..because it IS GOOD news......CNBC business is to talk NEGATIVE & inject FEAR to BOOST ratings 24/7.......

So .....things are falling in place with worldwide co-ordinated efforts...do NOT let CNBC to undermine this major accomplishment......

BUY & HOLD is NOT DEAD.......only STUPIDITY is IN on CNBC....which believes that stocks selling @ or BELOW book is NOT the time to BUY & HOLD.....cannot imagine a "more retarded statements being SHOUTED ON in every CNBC program"

If Stocks should be AVOIDED @ all cost as per CNBC then WHY are they on the AIR & serving whose interest????

By the way ..last time I checked China will grow 8% to 9% in 09

India the outsourcing capital of the world is expected to grow 6% in 09

So..who is happy to BUY in this environment Warren Buffett,Bob Doll & many value mutual fund managers..who are NOT daytraders and are not PAID to SHOUT hourly predictions for the markets on CNBC.....

Most value investors KNOW that this crisis is on its last leg and offer "incredible value".....I will hate to include Jimmy the Cramer & Macke in the same sentence as genius investors of the world...who CAN see through the current malaise and SPOT value for major long term GAINS..

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS...Electricity was gone for several hours in north of Toronto....so could not finish on time.


Saleem

Saturday, November 15, 2008

BUY rated stocks for " G20 meeting RALLY "

Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

AIPC,CHKP,EPIQ,HOLX,JCOM,QGEN,
CMS,DGX,QXM,TI,XEL,WCN,VR,CLA,
TSO,XOM,NBL,KGC,KDE.

Next post by 10AM Sunday.

Sorry for being late..as I was interrupted by a long distance phone call.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically STRONG stocks for " G20 meeting RALLY "

Following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

TLGD,GCO,TNC,HHGP,HSC,NBL,MAS,CXG.

BLOG does NOT give buy sell.

Saleem

Technically WEAK stocks for " G20 meeting RALLY "

Following stocks are showing technical weakness based on various formations.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

UBS,LFL,CAL,FORM,HSY,TWB,BK,AXYS,NEOG,STSA
CRUS,SNDK.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, November 14, 2008

Market gave back 3.82% to 5% @ close.....

All the indices are living up to their reputation of VOLATILITY to the extremes.....

Up 7% then Down 5%......

This IS a definite sign of JITTERINESS near bottom......

This bear has already lasted beyond 13 months and HAS exceeded traditional 33% drop...

In case you have lost count ...we have been going down since August 07...when HIGH was 14000++ so we are down 40% @ 8497 on Dow......

I firmly believe that ETF will be a better way to lock any RUNUP which MAY come anytime ....

The biggest indicator of imminent RUNUP is that every commentator on CNBC is becoming PROPHETIC about the direction of each stock & market....on the DOWNSIDE......almost all of them are KNOWN to make majority of their calls INCORRECTLY?????

Yesterday one pundit from NYSE floor was saying on CNBC"WHO IS GOING TO BUY THIS MARKET...there are ONLY SELLERS" and we closed UP 11% from LOW......?????

By 10AM Saturday...I will list technically weak/strong/buy rated stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Orderly giveback of 3.61% to 4.49% from huge gain of yesterday !!!

Markets are trying to digest yesterday's huge gain......

So far 3%+ to 4%+ giveback is happening......

NASDAQ is weakest of the indices..as NOK warned on handset sales worldwide..thus affecting chips & handset makers like MOT,QCOM,MRVL,BRCM,AAPL,RIMM......

In my portfolio :

Bought an ETF in Toronto HOU.TO which is an Oil BULL on Oil prices on NYMEX...I am betting that Oil will move HIGHER from here..EASY to bet on OIL prices than Oil stocks.....my cost $5.85...its 52 week high was $48.51.....DOWN 87.9%......

So I have HOU.TO & UYM......

@ 11.57 AM following are green in my watch list :

LVS,CROX,JASO,GOOG,V,PHM,DUG,SGP,GG.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, November 13, 2008

S&P 500 moved UP 92.60 or 11.3% from Low to close..NICE !!!!

Markets were displaying textbook technical action...breach old lows & rally hard in a V pattern...

After everything is said & done..most indices logged on 11% gain from low or close to 7% UP on the day...NICE..NICE...NICE...

So where we go from here???

This rally is in anticipation of G20 meeting this weekend...which should hold until Monday....

Markets are discounting lot of issues with decisions taken already by major central banks.....this is a work in progress.......

INTC bad news was absorbed by this market NICELY with a green close in INTC & techs.....

Anytime we have a rally close to 20%...time to get DEFENSIVE....a good strategy may be to write covered calls near those levels.....so we have 7% rally with about 13% more to go......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

S&P 500 & DOW above 52 wk lows so far.......

NASDAQ went to new 52 week low today..second penetration of lows since Oct 10Th....

Technology SEEMS to be MOST vulnerable to worldwide SLOWDOWN.....as discretionary purchase MAY be put ON HOLD......

RIMM,GOOG & many other techs hitting fresh new lows......

Based on market tape of this morning...it seems that broader market is TRYING to find a footing above LOWS.....which IS a good sign so far.......

UYM staying green.....for me !!!

@ 11.59 AM following are green in my watch list :

SOL,IPI,POT,AGU,FSLR,FXI,DIG,SNY,SGP,LVS,SPWRA,X,ICE.

BLOG dos NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

S&P 500 Low today 850.48..10 points away from 52 wk LOW???

Markets are relentless in going down since July.....No sustained reversal......

Thursday COULD be a flush out/capitulation on very HIGH volume......

This market has decimated most portfolios......experience has NOT helped as this bear market is totally different than any other bear market in history......experience became a pitfall as one would expect major bounce @ each oversold level....no such tape materialized....

Sold SOL as it was breaking all technical levels.......

I have only UYM......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

S&P 500 LOW 865.81... only 25 points away from 52 wk LOW???

Markets are in de-leveraging mode again today???
New test of LOWS are in progress....

JASO went into loss for Q3 with derivative loss with LEH.....

All solar are in deep RED......

SOL faring the worst?????

Most sectors & stocks are down......

Will we get some relief @ close????

BLOG does OT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

S&P 500 Low today 884.90..closed @ 898.95

Markets were down from 1.99% to 2.22%....

Markets are in oversold condition AGAIN.....

S&P 500 testing support...went to 884.90...will it HOLD?

Market seems to be stuck in max 2 day rally then 2 day minimum selling...are we all set to rally on Wed?

Let us hope so......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets testing support AGAIN.....

Markets are RED all over.....

S&P 500 LOW today is 886.83 so far....well below 900....

Every sector is taking on the chin......

TOL & SBUX news was taken as an indicator of current state of economy.....

Market IS struggling with "real strength" of economy..so any negative news gets an OVER-REACTION from indices......

Current state of economy is UNIQUE as it has NEVER experienced de-leveraging of this magnitude....

Can we expect improvement by close?

I hope SO !!!!

Always an OPTIMIST !!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, November 10, 2008

Market ignored China Stimulus package..closed RED !!!

US market ignored China stimulus package & closed RED.....

Markets are extremely lethargic lately...tries very hard to ignore positive news....

Only positive is that indices closed well above LOWS of the day.....

SOLD UYG & LVS......

LVS ER was a profit of 2 cents vs expectations of 11 cent profit...Sales were ahead of expectations...

LVS has financing in place for $2.14 Billion (details not announced yet) with several project delayed....

Portfolio is UYM & SOL......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets turned RED......

Market gave up morning bounce.......

GM news was bad.....

CC news was bad.....

GS weak AGAIN....

GOOG was downgraded with forecast of FLAT sales...

Techs have been laggard.....

Most stocks are turning RED.....

Close will set the tone......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Markets looking healthier going forward !!!!

Market are looking healthier going forward based on many factors..some are listed below in no order :

Markets HATES uncertainty.....so what do we KNOW NOW....

That there is a serious credit crunch...

That world government have realized this problem...

Every world economy is trying to INJECT more LIQUIDITY in their system....

There has been series of coordinated rate cuts to bring the cost of borrowing down....

There has been STIMULUS package by many nations to boost economic activity....

Last night China's Central Bank Governor predicted growth of 8% to 9% in 2009 in CHINA..

China announced a stimulus package of $586 billion and promised to continue easy monetary policy....

US has a new President-elect Barak Obama whose election has been CHEERED around the world...

Confidence is slowly building for a long term resolution of systemic problems faced because of credit crunch......

When.....

So much IS known.....

AND...

So much is being DONE....

Markets will move HIGHER......

So where money CAN be made.....????

The sectors which have been beaten down the-most will recover FASTER......

Material sector has seen the biggest SLUMP and HAS discounted SLOWDOWN in world DEMAND......

Material demand is NOT going away...just @ MORE reasonable PACE......

Prices will START FIRMING as we go forward.......

DE-LEVERAGING has played its role big time......things have gone down too far too fast...NOW there is a need for EQUILIBRIUM.....means pendulum will swing back to a normal mean.....

Financials are going through their 100Th new 52 week LOWS...which SHOULD come to an END....this sector will RECOVER going forward.....No economy CAN prosper unless Banks/Financial institutions are prospering.......

There has been a major focus on "HOPE/CHANGE" with the recent election...it IS a HUGE confidence builder......

So .....all in all markets MAY start giving its THUMBS UP in a big way to all the steps taken & being taken to help world economy .....

After a long time I can CLEARLY SEE that markets will RESPOND to FUTURE which IS much BRIGHTER than few weeks ago.....

So.....do not hesitate to start a position after doing your OWN due diligence.....

Good luck with your OWN homework.....

TIME to step up to the plate !!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, November 8, 2008

BUY rated stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

RNWK,SIRF,PETS,OSIR,LMNX,NTRI,BLUD,
WEN,BRL,EBS,FNF,GDP,NLY,RNT.

Next post by 10AM Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically STRONG stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

Following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.Please do your own due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

CPSI,ACH,FSIN,TBSI,AMSC,SOHU,UAUA.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically WEAK stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

Following stocks are technically weak based on various formations.Please do your own due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

EHTH,PCBC,CMA,TLB,TAYC.

BLOG odes NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, November 7, 2008

Markets ended UP 2.41% to 2.89%....Nice !!!

Markets shrugged off bad job data by closing UP 2.4%+

Close today will build confidence in stock market...as most traders/investors are always worried about going through the old lows of Oct 10TH.....Monday will be exactly 1 months since the last low in Dow & S&P 500.....Nice to look in rear-view mirror.....

President-elect Obama assured traders that he fully understand what US & World is facing in economic terms...his news conference was confident & well prepared... markets were already giving a "thumbs UP"

By 10AM Saturday..I will list technically weak/strong/buy rated stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets looking beyond Jobs data.....

Markets are showing resiliency despite Bad Jobs data & unemployment creeping up to 14 year high of 6.5%.....

Dow ,S&P 500 & NASDAQ are all green......

It IS comforting to see that LOW of Oct 10TH is holding......

In my portfolio :

Bought more LVS..cost went down to $9.57.....Financing IS imminent based on everything I have been reading.....

LVS Down $1.27

UYG UP 14 cents

UYM UP 76 cents

SOL UP 66 cents

@ 11.51 AM following are green in my watch list :

RIMM,IBN,MON,LDK,STP,CSIQ,FSLR,ISRG,BIDU,MA,V,
SNY,KGC,GG.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, November 6, 2008

S&P 500 closed @ 904.88..Down 5.03%

Markets were losing steam again..having lost 10% in 2 days......

Market is very concerned about economy & its implications worldwide......

Jobs data @ 830 AM will be in sharp focus......

Markets are oversold again......

Futures after factoring fair value are :

Dow UP 21.21

S&P 500 UP 4.37

NASDQ UP 5.78

Solar stocks MAY find its footing as SOLR beat expectations and is promising higher margin from cost control going forward......

STP,LDK & CSIQ got downgraded which affected most solar stocks negatively......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Dow Jones low today 8841.15...is that the low for retest??

Markets are pulling back Again...Dow down almost 300 @ low so far.....

Europe had rate cut ranging from .5% to 1.5%...but European markets tanked almost 7%.....

Close is critical today......which will set the tone for Friday for Asia & Europe & then US......

Most stocks are down with markets......

LVS is down 40.9% as their filing to SEC includes mixed shelf offering plus cautionary statement about their covenants......Thomas Weisel analyst Jake Fuller is maintaining OVERWEIGHT rating with a target of $25...thinks LVS will outline plans shortly & see the probability of financing as HIGH.....????

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Market gave back from 3.95% to 5.53% @ close

Market sold off on election results and focus went back to economy & jobs.....

ADP data was very negative in terms of job loss......

Today's sharp selling was also triggered by big gains in the last few weeks.....

Market MAY find its footing Thursday...after sharp selling today......

CSCO as expected had bad ER......but stocks sold off further in AH.....sounds like panic selling IS @ peak.....CSCO ER was not expected to be good..but Techs & other stocks were selling sharply LOWER in AH.....

Futures are as follows after factoring fair value :

Dow Down 49.27

S&P 500 Down 4.17

NASDAQ Down 23.73

Solar stocks took a beating down close to 20%.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Dow giving back almost 200 points.....

Markets are in retreat after huge gains......

AGU good ER failed to ignite Ag sector.....

Election gains were done in anticipation of Barak Obama victory...

Now it is back to reality of who will be heading Obama's cabinet....

In my portfolio :

Added more SOL cost went down to $8.15

LVS Down $1.59

UYG Down 40 cents

UYM Down $1.40

SOL Down 90 cents

@ 11.59 AM following are green in my watch list:

RIMM,GG,YHOO,WYN,SNE,HIG.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Dow closed UP 305 points @ 9625......

Markets showed confidence in election results by jumping near high of the day @ close...

Most sectors were UP today.....

Jimmy the Cramer asking the faithful to take profit in any RUNUP.....

Most of my stocks participated in this rally except LVS which gave up 5.04%...looks like financing jitters being exploited by MM?

Futures are flat.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets celebrating "decision day"

Markets are in full blown rally as another uncertainty is being removed of electing the President.

Higher HIGHS is very good $$$$

Solar continuing their RUNUP......

In my portfolio :

Bought SOL based on their UPPED guidance & increase in CREDIT facility.....my cost $8.30

Portfolio is LVS,UYG,UYM,SOL......

LVS UP 16 cents

UYG UP 60 cents

UYM UP $2.21

SOL UP $1.22..I am UP 49 cents


Most stocks are UP including Gold,Oil,Nat Gas,Coal,Ag,Tech,Financials & Solar.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, November 3, 2008

Market closed flattish......

Markets are in flat mode ahead of election......

Advancing stocks were in the lead on both NYSE & NASDAQ......

Solar stocks were on fire ahead of Obama victory.....

SOL increased guidance for Q3 & increased credit line from two leading Chinese Banks.....

STP is lagging behind along with LDK......

SOLF & TSL were big % gainers....

TAN is the ETF for solar stocks which was also UP nicely.....

I am expecting a strong close Tuesday... in anticipation of decisive victory for Senator Obama..

Market will evaluate extent of Democrat victory on Wednesday.....reaction in markets will depend on Senate ratio......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets in holding pattern for election results.....

Markets are in a holding pattern waiting for election results.....due out Tuesday night ...hopefully...

Market will prefer check & balance so a decent victory in senate for republicans is highly desirable...

A complete SWEEP by Democrats of House & Senate will have negative reaction from wall street.....

It is expected that new President will move QUICKLY to repair confidence & economy......

In my portfolio :

LVS UP $1.41

UYG UP 12 cents

UYM UP 69 cents

@11.41 AM folloing are green in my watch list :

RIMM,SOL,CSIQ,IBN,AGU,POT,FSLR,JASO,ISRG,
BIDU,GS,DUG,KGC,WFR,LDK,SPWRA,TSL,SOHU,X,
LRCX.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Election,worldwide slowdown will dominate news....

Markets are trying to show a brave face....despite worldwide slowdown in economic activity.....

India reduced lending rates again over the weekend after coordinated cut by most central bank......

Currently we are @ the epicentre of economic slowdown & job loss......

I am expecting November to mark the end of severe contraction in economic activity around the world.....

November....is going to be TROUGH......in industrial activity & then GRADUAL ramp UP....

So..brace yourself for negative economic news from everywhere......

I expect China to slowdown to 7% GDP growth far cry from 11%++ and 9.1% recently reported...

India is expected to slowdown to 5% GDP growth.....which is also much lower than 9% peak growth......

US will have 2 Q of negative growth...current Q & last Q......

So ...all the economic Gloom & Doom is hitting its low point NOW..........

BUT......

Market looks ahead to Jan Q GDP which will be positive.......

Stocks will look ahead to Jan growth and many stocks are already making an move UP in anticipation......

It will be profitable to have "reasonable exposure" in few strong stocks as evident from tape....

Oct 10TH LOW will hold.......

Markets will "resume normal trading pattern" vs crazy tape which we have witnessed recently..

What is a normal trading pattern......trending UP with pullbacks......

I am expecting US election to be a CALMING factor for markets.....as we will have a decisive winner....NO HANGING CHADS for bears to FEAST ON.....

Strongly suggest to pay close attention to tape and do due diligence by checking fundamentals CLOSELY.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, November 1, 2008

BUY rated stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

NTES,SBUX,SWIR,VIMC,JDAS,JBLU,COCO,ADCT,
DAL,DYN,GA,MU,PCU,TOL,JBX,AOB,PLA,TTM,BZH.

Next post by 10 AM Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically STRONG stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

Following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

DV,LCC,CHTT,MFLX,SMG,MBI,ASTI,NTCT,GTY,
ALK,SLXP,SYNO,MYE,BEAT,ZEUS,CYBX,COGO.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically WEAK stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

Following stocks are showing technical weakness based on various formation.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

CVGW,TSON,INSP,FCN.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem