Monday, March 31, 2008

Markets closed green in all indices.......

Markets ended green...Dow,NASDAQ & S&P500 all ended higher......

Advancing stocks led decliners.....

Markets are NOT displaying conviction.....????

New Q..new Month starting on Tuesday....will it be any different????

I have been booking gains whenever I can get.......

In my portfolio :

Sold AAPL booked a gain of $2.50 per share......

Put all proceed into RIMM cost went down to $113.92......

My portfolio is NVDA,PIR,RIMM,TOL......

NVDA rating 70/80 target of $21.79

PIR rating 50/30 target of $6.80

RIMM rating 0/30 target $116.52

TOL rating 30/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $24.41 for a target of $26.82

In other stocks :

CSIQ rating 15/30 target $21.80

EGO rating 66/40 target $7.47

LULU rating 45/55 target $33.06

Strong stocks included MA,FSLR,ISRG,GS,NCTY,GA,ASTI,SPWR.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets are green inspite of many negatives !!!!

Markets are going through many "jitters" this morning......

End of the months...end of Q.....

Street still "net short".....

Paulson trying to regulate financial scene with more monitoring & veto power???

Major ER due in next few days???

In my portfolio:

AAPL UP $1.33

NVDA UP 14 cents

PIR UP 38 cents

RIMM down $1.97 on heavy volume????

TOL UP 78 cents

@11.31 AM the following are green :

STP,FSLR,CSIQ,COIN,C,SNDK,GS,V,ICE,IGT,WYNN,
LVS,NYX,SPWR,ISRG,XLF,AMZN,GOOG,FWLT,JNPR,
XHB,NCTY,X.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Many Stocks moving HIGHER !!!

Many Stocks are moving higher with the improvement in investors/traders psychology......

Lot of traders MAY be feeling left out ....as many sectors are showing strength......

Some traders are still feeling the pinch because their cost base is very high.....

Most investors /traders are looking with horror @ their lost/low equity......

All of us are trying to figure out "how to recoup our equity"????

Recouping any loss in stock market IS very difficult......as stocks lose their value "rapidly"..but take a long time to crawl back higher......

Most stocks which have shown relative weakness in this freefall...WILL take forever to recover @ snail pace......2 step UP 1 step DOWN.....

Relative strength stocks NOT only will recover all the giveback faster ...but will go on to make new HIGHS......

Some stocks are already on the verge of breaking out...........

In every sector...there IS such a thing as strong stocks vs LAGGARDS.....

The idea IS to be in stocks......which hopefully will recover faster...so your equity will grow FASTER !!!

So how to play this improving investors/traders sentiment.....????

My suggestion will be...... to have a mix of strong stocks with some laggards ???

This way you will have "fast movers plus ....all boats being lifted stocks"

I do NOT hesitate to book a loss in "potential LAGGARDS to be in frontline stocks.....this way my equity is being put to work in the most effective & OPTIMIZED mode"

What IS OPTIMIZED mode ????

Say you have $50k to work with.....

You should put 75% of that money in "hot sectors/stocks which will move next day"

Other 25% CAN be put in stocks which you are in love with & think wall street got it all wrong....

This way you get to play analyst yourself & figure out your own favourite stocks to be IN....

Generally speaking LOWEST PE does NOT work in a fast-moving/improving markets........

If you look which stocks lost the-most...you will be surprised to find that lower PE got the brunt of freefall as they are generally in WEAK hands...who sell quickly @ the sign of down day....

Laggards have a tendency to trade in a very narrow range over & over????

We are in a market where "uncertainty will remain until august"...thus markets will remain volatile & range bound.......

But...strong stocks will recoup all loss and will go on to make new highs !!!

So...which stocks are looking strong......and generally they are High PE????

Here IS the list of recent movers...

NO guarantee that they will continue to move higher......

RIMM
AAPL
ISRG
FSLR
X

Now.....to OPTIMIZE your return would it NOT be a smart strategy to allocate 100% of your capital into all 5 stocks?????

This IS just an example of how to put money to work immediately in a diversified mode....

But .....every investors & traders have their own way to put their money to work ...some investors/traders are actually afraid to be in the stocks given in the example.....

I am "quite surprised by people who claim to know FA & TA inside out" have NEVER invested in any of the stock listed in example????

Amazingly the above listed stocks have outperformed for several years????

So....most will continue to be in LAGGARDS to hit the home run !!!!

I strongly recommend 75% hot/expensive & 25% bargain/laggards.....MAY work!!!

You have to realize that you cannot be in all stocks so your picks must be done with an analytical approach of FA/TA plus Tape!!!

Please do your own due diligence & manage your risk with stop loss.

Always find your OWN comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Buy rated stocks for 2008 RUNUP $$$

Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your own FA/TA & use stop loss.

YTEC,XRTX,TTEC,TSRA,KOPN,JMBA,FEED,DAKT,
ASTI,BTM,CHL,GA,GRO,LLL,POT,RDY,RHT,TMO,
XRX,OTEX.

Next post 10AM Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically STRONG stocks for Fed induced 2008 RUNUP $$$

Following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.
Please do your own FA/TA & use stop loss.

SOHU,AXA,BJS,EBAY,NVS,COGO,CTRN,MDR,FTI,
MRVL,SLE,STP,ADBE,IDTI,HOKU,LIFC,ATML,LEAP,
FSLR,MCD,MET,CTSH,BIIB,LSI,EXPE.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically WEAK stocks for Fed induced 2008 RUNUP $$$

Following stocks are showing technical weakness based on various formations.Please do your own FA/TA & use stop loss.

AMD,MSO,SOV,IT,CHS,BEBE,AKAM,GRMN,NUAN,
MTG,SYNA,HERO,VIP,CMI,ARGN,DSW,FHN,PHH,
CPKI,TRV.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, March 28, 2008

Markets closed down again !!!!

Markets closed down again.......

Market gave up all the gain after open and stayed RED until close......

It may sound discouraging..... but many sectors were strong.....

It IS a stock pickers market........

Ensure that you are ahead of the game ...NOT chasing any stock or sectors.....

Stock selection is the key based on FA/TA and recent tape......

Some stocks are trading in range...so enter @ low end ....& EXIT near high end of range.....

The current market will remain "unpredictable"...so play the range of "known stock" without worrying about market......

Please pay attention to RSI range of each stock......

In my portfolio :

AAPL rating 15/30 target $146.78

NVDA rating 75/85 target $22.42

PIR rating 35/45 target $7.05

RIMM rating 10/30 target $125.11

TOL rating 50/30 target $24.44

In other stocks :

BRCM rating 55/30 target $20.74

COIN rating 40/95 target $13.12

Techs & solar were strong.......

10AM Saturday..I will post a list of technically weak/strong & buy rated stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Nasdaq leading again.... UP 10.16 +.45%....

NASDAQ is the best place to be among all indices.....

All tech leaders are showing better tape action than NASDAQ......

Lot of economic data came out mostly on the weak side but inflation PCE deflator was contained...

Markets are trying to digest all the cross-current which also have LM in the mix....

LM (Legg Mason) is having some liquidity issue which they are on the verge of resolving....

This IS a stock pickers market on a daily basis......

Booking profit has to be the mantra till Aug.....

Markets are showing all sign of being stable.....taking lot of negative news in stride !!!!

In my portfolio :

AAPL UP $3.42

NVDA UP 68 cents

PIR down 8 cents

RIMM UP $3.42

TOL down 19 cents

@11.15 AM the following are green :

JASO(upgrade),STP,LDK,FSLR,BRCM,TSL,POT,CMED,CTRP,BIDU,
VLO,SPWR,ISRG,AMZN,IFN,GOOG.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Nasdaq down 43.53 <1.87%>.......

NASDAQ took it on the chin two days in a row........

ORCL is being blamed for this slump ????

NASDAQ has been strong lately so a pullback is actually healthy.....

March has two days left..... in end of the month & end of the Q window dressing.....

I will not be surprised if Friday & Monday ends up being strong......I hope !!!!

Do NOT look for any reason when markets/stocks tank from nowhere.....that IS the nature of this market.......

In my portfolio :

Sold LULU to book a gain of $4.65 per share

Sold BRCM to book a gain of $1.43 per share

Bought TOL @ $23.26

Bought RIMM twice today...my cost went down to $114.95....

My portfolio is AAPL,NVDA,PIR,RIMM & TOL

AAPL rating 25/30 target $144.39

NVDA rating 40/95 target $22.30

PIR rating 5/30 target $6.81

RIMM rating 30/30 target $118.20

TOL rating 55/30 target $24.38

In other stocks :

BRCM rating 40/70 target $20.11

LULU rating 10/30 target $33.54

Q-Cells ER lit a fire under solar stocks but faded in the end except for TIM.TO,FSLR,SOLF,SPWR,STP,....

AH ag is strong MOS,POT are UP on contract announcement by MOS.......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Nasdaq weak..down 30.78 1.32%

Nasdaq is weak among all indices..currently down 1.32%.....

NASDAQ is weak due to weak guidance by ORCL......

NASDAQ has been leading the averages over several days.....so a pullback was overdue....

Solar stocks are continuing their RUNUP based on Q-cells excellent ER & guidance..Q-cells is among the biggest solar company in the world.....

In my portfolio :

Doubled my position in RIMM @ open...which was NOT the best time to buy today... my cost jumped to $115.15....

AAPL down $1.69

BRCM down 8 cents

LULU down 54 cents

NVDA down 8 cents

PIR down 18 cents

RIMM down $3.82 cents

@ 11.26 AM the following are green :

STP,LDK,CSIQ,FSLR,JASO,SOLF,TOL,TSL,SNDK,POT,
TKC,CTRN,NMX,VLO,SPWR,DRYS,FWLT,EZA,EBAY.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Dow down 109.74 <.88%>

Dow & all indices were down around .8%.......

Lot of negative news were @ play from durable goods weak order , downgrades in financials,Gold UP,Oil UP..........

AH ORCL ER was a miss on rev & guided 1 cent lower than consensus......most techs were down AH.........

SOLF reports before open..... which will affect all solar stock trading in pre-market & regular hour.....

In my portfolio :

Sold JNPR AH as GS is downgrading to neutral booked 40 cents per share profit.....In this market I do not want to hang around any stock which MAY be affected by downgrade and lose profit...

RIMM was strong on Citi analyst note of another "solid Q" target $140..expects a beat to Citi estimates......

AAPL was strong on Gartner report that AAPL has ordered 10 million 3g iphone...which will be a big hit worldwide.....expectations is for April release...also reported that all NYC stores are completely sold out of iphone.......

My portfolio is...AAPL,BRCM,LULU,NVDA,PIR & RIMM.......

AAPL rating 45/30 target $155.60

BRCM rating 55/30 target $21

LULU rating 25/30 target $34.93

NVDA rating 80/85 target $22.24

PIR rating 40/30 target $6.80

RIMM rating 25/30 target $125.11

Some solar stocks LDK,CSIQ,JASO were strong

BIDU,GOOG,ICE,VLO,TSO,POT.DRYS,COIN,ABX,V did well......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets down 1%..thanks to financials !!!

Markets are in giveback mode after negative take on financials by analyst......

Home builders are also under pressure thanks to downgrade of BZH & HOV.....

Oil is UP......

Gold is UP.....

$ is DOWN......

Sounds familiar?????

So the markets are down.........

In my portfolio :

As planned .....added 37% RIMM @ open..my cost went UP to $113.20.....

AAPL UP $3.56

BRCM UP 21 cents

JNPR down 29 cents

LULU UP 35 cents

NVDA down 60 cents

PIR down 47 cents

RIMM UP $1.84

@ 11.22 AM the following are green :

TSO,VLO,ICE,CTRP,BIDU,COIN,ABX,FSLR,DRYS,GOOG.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Nasdaq closed UP 14.30 +.61% !!!!

NASDAQ & S&P 500 closed green ......

Dow closed red by 16.04.....

Advancing stocks had strong lead on declining stocks on both NYSE & NASDAQ....

UP volume also had comfortable lead on both indices.......

Economic reports are coming before open...durable goods is the key.....

In my portfolio :

Sold QLD to book a gain of $8.21 per share......

Bought AAPL @ $141.81.....

My portfolio is AAPL,BRCM,JNPR,LULU,NVDA,PIR & RIMM......

Booking profit is a very important part of my strategy and I follow it with great discipline.....

AAPL rating 50/30 target $145

BRCM rating 55/45 target $20.11

JNPR rating 40/30 target $28.16

LULU rating 30/30 target $33.00

NVDA rating 70/50 target $22.17

PIR rating 25/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $6.90 for a target of $7.94

RIMM rating 30/30 target $125.11

In other stocks :

Solar were the big movers today SOLF,CSIQ,STP,FSLR,LDK,SPWR had good gains.....

MA,V,POT,MOS,MON,AGU were strong

Among the laggards were GOOG,BIDU,SIRF,GRMN......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Nasdaq IS Green !!!!!

Market digested its huge gain this morning by pulling back to accommodate profit taking ......

Lot of very jittery traders ..... who were afraid of market stalling now......

Markets have build a very strong base which will build from here......

Pullbacks will be orderly and IS healthy for the markets going forward......

There were many negative corporate news this AM to deal with....VLO warning,GOOG downgrade...to name a few......Retailer warning & consumer confidence @ lows in many many years.......

All in all not a bad tape in spite of all of the above issues for today......I think we had a handful to start with !!!!

In my portfolio :

Bought RIMM my cost $111.77...looks very good technically !!!

BRCM Down 3 cents

JNPR UP $ 1.13

LULU down 84 cents

NVDA UP 16 cents

PIR UP 7 cents

RIMM UP $1.49

QLD UP 30 cents

@11.17 AM the following are green :

MON,MOS,POT,AGU,LDK,CSIQ(upgrade),TSL,VMW,CTRN,ICE,
YHOO,AAPL,CTRP,MA,NMX,AUY,ABX,GG,SPWR,FSLR,ISRG,
IFN,DRYS,FWLT,V,SNDA,JASO.......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, March 24, 2008

Nasdaq UP 68.60 +3.04%....Higher than other Indices !!!

NASDAQ was the strongest of all sectors.......

NASDAQ Up volume was leading by 10.84 to 1 ...a major bull move UP !!!

Most of the old tech leaders were making major UP move today........

NASDAQ UP move looked very familiar to previous moves in a bull market....

In my portfolio :

BRCM rating 55/45 target $20.67

JNPR rating 55/45 target $27.27

LULU rating 40/30 target $33.00

NVDA rating 60/50 target $21.80

PIR rating 55/30 target $6.80

QLD rating 35/30 target $75.02

In other stock :

TSO rating 95/50 target $33.81

Strong movers were ...BIDU,GOOG,RIMM,AAPL,ISRG,FSLR,SPWR,STP,IFN......

My portfolio was UP 7.23%........

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Nasdaq UP 60.09 2.66% ..leading all indices by far !!!

NASDAQ has started the mother of all rally......

NASDAQ was trashed the most....so will snap back @ "steroid pace "

QLD is flying UP $4.59 or 6.7%........SO FAR !!!

In my portfolio :

Bought PIR @ open cost $6.03..again NOT a good fill with a market order as it opened @ $5.98???

My portfolio is :

BRCM,JNPR,LULU,NVDA,PIR & QLD......

This snapback is a market of buying different concepts as most sectors are deeply OVERSOLD......do NOT go in CONCENTRATED positions.....keep buying many stocks in many sectors.....that IS what I am doing !!!!

BRCM UP $1.18

JNPR UP 35 cents

LULU UP $3.08

NVDA UP $1.28

PIR UP 23 cents ..I am UP 20 cents or +3.3% !!!

QLD UP $4.59

@ 11.20 AM the following are green :

BIDU (new CFO),GOOG,RIMM,AAPL,ORCL,CSCO,FSLR,SPWR,
XHB(better resale news),UYG(BSC getting $10),VMW,LDK,
CMED(ECLIA news),SIRF,CTRN,ICE,NYX,NMX,IGT,TSO,
CTRP,WYNN,MA(new high),LVS,POT,VLO,ABX,ISRG,XLF,
DRYS,FWLT,GS,TOL,CSIQ,NCTY,SNDA,AKAM,WFR,JASO.

Good luck on a well diversified portfolio.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, March 22, 2008

Strategy for the UP phase of the market !!!!

We have gone through the WORST TAPE in my investing/trading history.......

The last 6 months have been extremely traumatic for most participants of the market.....

It did not mattered if you were value investor or aggressive investor.......

It did not mattered if you were in mutual fund or stocks or ETF.......

If you were in options......then the decline in equity was faster......

The decline was so severe & relentless that even ones own concept of safe stocks were severely challenged.......

There were NO safe stocks.......

Every stock was taken for a major haircut......

It did not mattered if any company was an undisputed leader in its field.....it lost minimum 30%

Average decline in this market was 40% .........

So......

Why..... nothing worked in this market...when PE was only 17 ????

We were NOT in any bubble @ all ?????

Because...when PANIC/FEAR of deep recession takes over no LOGIC works ......

There was NO support for the market ...thus NO support to stocks @ any level......

Market treated every stock as if it will be affected by sub-prime & credit squeeze......

All stocks were being treated as if there will be "negative growth" going forward.....

The psychology is so fragile still that some new sectors will be taken DOWN who have fared better overall......like Ag,gold......

So ...what we have learned from this freefall ????

Most investors/traders will NOT learn anything @ all???

Because they are dismissing this freefall as once in a lifetime situation???

That will be a mistake......

The biggest take from this freefall is one NEEDS to reduce exposure in an uncertain market....

The other lesson IS ...take profit if it is given to you.......

Spread the risk around in many stocks in different sectors.....

So.....hopefully we are entering an UP phase of the market !!!!!

What IS a PRUDENT strategy NOW........

Go for sectors which has gone down the most in this freefall.......

Technology is one sector which has been creamed in the last 12 months...from CSCO to GOOG....they are all @ new LOWS.......

Retail has been downgraded & is looking attractive NOW after basing earlier and IS actually in an improving mode......

Financials & Housing had a sharp rebound in last week...MAY need rest !!!!

Growth sectors like Solar has many question mark in terms of credit availability so must be underweight until competitive landscape & growth picture becomes clear......

You can play all the new strong sectors with ETF as it IS safer way to go.....

ETF will be biggest beneficiary in the UP phase of the market.......

I am mixing beaten down techs /retail/ETF in my portfolio to OPTIMIZE my returns.....

US$ SURGE is bad news for Gold/Oil/Ag as those commodities are in freefall now...so have a cautious approach......

US$ SURGE is great new for US market because worldwide investors will invest in US market because of its LOW valuation & expected further SURGE in US$...gives them double kick in boosting their return on their foreign currency based investment......

I am quite OPTIMISTIC about US market going forward.......as we become the centre of universe again......thanks to Fed,Treasury,Legislators & White House!!!

I am NOT as optimistic about China & India as they face many challenges in their economy with their tightening of credit availability and coming slowdown in their economy......

So stay Home and invest/trade in upcoming sectors of Techs/Retail/Financials/Housing all through safe strategy of ETF !!!!!

Good luck on RESET of your strategy !!!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Enjoy Easter holiday !!!!

Saleem

Friday, March 21, 2008

BUY signal stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

The following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your own FA/TA and use stop loss.

AMZN,AAWW,BLDR,CHKP,DLTR,HUGH,NILE,NUAN,ROST,
SHLD,TIBX,SCMR,CMG,CPB,DPZ,DRI,HOV,NNI,PIR,TJX,
TOL,UL,YSI,PJB,XHB,URE.

Next post 10AM Saturday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically STRONG stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

Following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.Please do your own FA/TA and use stop loss.

MA,TMX,ADS,NITE,SKX,CREE,CRBC,EAT,HXL,ZUMZ,
MTB,NAL,CORS,THC,PLT,FWRD,KNX,WINN,SVU,HAS,
PLXS,EPIC,ISIS,MI,MAT,RIMM,JDSU.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically WEAK stocks for "Higher highs in markets "

Following stocks are showing technical weakness based on various formations.Please do your own FA/TA and use stop loss.

MRVL,ADM,AG,WAT,BPO,EK,SHOO,LRCX,EP,TEX,ABX,
MON,SINA,AGU,DO,PCZ,CX,MOT,NOVL,RMBS,EL,CRM,
SPWR,ICE,SYNA,TECD,OXY,NBR,SGR,MSO,POT.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, March 20, 2008

S&P 500 UP 2.39%...closed @ 1329.51 !!!

Markets continued its YOYO moves by closing sharply UP......

Dow was UP 261.66.......

Markets are trying to form a "strong bottom".......

Again many sectors were strong.......Techs,financials & housing......

Volume was very heavy ..thanks to Quad OE & long weekend.....

Short covering before long weekend also played a role in snap back......

In my portfolio :

Sold V for a gain of $4.75 per share.....

Sold CMED for a loss of $2.30 per share.....tape was very weak lately......

Bought LULU cost $27.41

My portfolio is :

BRCM,JNPR,LULU,NVDA & QLD.....

BRCM rating 75/95 target $18.00

JNPR rating target $26.52

LULU rating 65/45 target $28.35

NVDA rating 80/85 rated for a "breakout" @ $18.41 for a target of $20.75

QLD rating 60/45 target $72.15

In other stocks :

UYG rating 30/30 target $34.90

RIMM rating 35/45 target $105.88

10AM Friday I will post a list of technically weak/strong & buy rated stocks.....

Enjoy Easter holiday !!!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

S&P 500 UP 1.1% to 1312.87 !!!!

Markets are marching to their own tune.....UP then Down then UP.....

Economic news still is confirming slowdown NOT recession.....

Markets have priced IN recession.....so any news which gives a better/improved economic picture....markets gives a "sigh of relief" & moves HIGHER !!!!!

Markets IS trying to FORM a strong BOTTOM ...& there IS a very good chance that we have already seen the LOW in S&P 500........

As most investors/traders are SCARED of this market and do NOT trust any UP move...this is a very good contrary indicator......

In my portfolio :

BRCM UP 34 cents

CMED down $1.09...technicians NOT happy with its stalled mode...this IS a normal pattern for CMED ..to form a base below 200 DMA on below average volume & then FLY UP on average volume and build from there.....

JNPR UP 40 cents

NVDA UP 45 cents

QLD UP 85 cents

V UP $6.80

@ 11.26AM the following are green :

TOL,LULU,C,DELL,VMW,INTC,CSCO,PHM,CTRN,ICE,YHOO,
AAPL,IGT,CTRP,WYNN,MA,WYN,LVS,POT,NYX,NMX,VLO,
SPWR,ISRG,XLF,SNE,AMZN,IFN,FWLT,EWY,FMCN,GS,
RIMM,NTES,NDAQ,CIEN.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

S&P 500 backed off by 2.43% ?????

Well......here we go AGAIN ?????

S&P 500 was down 2.43% after a very strong day ????

If you look @ market internals...it was NOT as bad as our individual portfolios???

Advance decline ratio was lead by decliners by 2.39 to 1 on NYSE & 2.37 to 1 on NASDAQ......

So...in real stock market based on these two indices 1 stock was UP for every 2.37 down....but our portfolios were all RED????

Why ?????

That IS the question to be explored.... to understand this extremely volatile market.......

Lot of investors/traders are buying on UP days & selling in PANIC on DOWN days.......NOT a good strategy.......

The strategy IS to be READY in an "instant to BUY" ...when market turns DOWN unexpected.....

Plus to be "ready to sell when you see profit"........

I know..... it is easier said than done......

I do not think ...volatility will go away anytime soon......

So...a simple question IS....what IS your plan to deal/prosper from this volatility.....this is an individual strategy question...so you have to figure it out for yourself......

Also keep in mind that Yesterday's superstars like Oil,Gold,Ag are falling apart because of US$ is taking centre stage......I have said many times in my BLOG that I am long US$ and short CAD...Canadian $ collapsed today against US$ down full 200 basis.....

US$ reality must be factored in your stock picking strategy..........

In my portfolio :

Sold TOL booked $1.70 per share profit

Sold CSIQ booked $7.50 per share loss

Bought JNPR cost $25.05

Bought QLD cost $65.90

My brokerage TD Waterhouse corrected the bad fill of VISA by giving me @ opening price of $59.50 for V.....that was sweet !!!!

My portfolio is :

BRCM,CMED,JNPR,NVDA,QLD,V.....

Today's tape was dictated by OE ,US$ rise,Gold,oil & commodity freefall......

Hopefully we will have a much better tape on Thursday for remaining Quad expiry !!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Market continues its march UP !!!

Markets are showing further momentum by going higher than stunning close yesterday.....

White house is taking more steps to liquefy mortgages by dropping reserve requirement of FNM & FRE by 33%...thus creating an instant $200 billion for lending.....they are also trying reduce other restrictions so they can further increase their capital......all in all a major PLUS for dealing with mortgage crisis......

In my portfolio :

Sold RIMM and booked profit of $11.15 per share......

Bought BRCM @ $17.58

Boght V...price in dispute as I had a bad fill...they have promises to look into it.....it was a market order before open ..V opened @ $59.50..I was given a fill of $62.99...NOT nice ????

My portfolio is :

BRCM,CSIQ,CMED,NVDA,TOL & V......

CSIQ down 77 cents

CMED down 93 cents

NVDA down 68 cents

TOL UP 83 cents

BRCM down 6 cents

V UP $15.95...I am down $3.04 based on stated fill.....

@ 11.28 AM the following are green :

QLD,DUG,C,CTRN,IGT,TSO,WYNN,CTRP,MA,LVS,VLO,
SPWR,ISRG,XLF,SNE,AMZN,GOOG.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

UP 4.24% on S&P500 @ absolute HOD !!!

Markets closed @ absolute High of the day on all indices......Never seen that before !!!

Up volume was leading by over 19 to 1 on NYSE & over 12 to 1 on NASDAQ...one of the best UP lead I have seen.......

Looks like it IS a start of something BIG.......

My portfolio was UP 6.39%...nice change from series of losses !!!!

In my portfolio :

CSIQ rating 95/95 target $22.83

CMED rating 100/45 target $41.98

NVDA rating 70/90 target $23.29

RIMM rating 35/45 target $114.72

TOL rating 45/45 target $22.41

In other stocks :

JNPR rating 30/45 target $26.52

BRCM rating 55/85 target $19.54

Most stocks were UP including ISRG,GS,MA,FSLR,ICE,NMX,NYX,GOOG,YHOO,
FMCN,AGU,POT,MOS,AAPL,DRYS,FWLT,TSO,VLO,GRMN........

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Fed cut 75 basis on funds & discount !!!!

Fed did the right thing by cutting Fed funds rate by 75 and discount rate by 75 basis also.

This will give support to US$...where I am long.....

This will also help fight inflation......as commodities will moderate when US$ firms UP.....

Market reaction so far was predictable...sell on the news...but reality is setting in and we are fighting back towards S&P 500 @ 1315 area +3.0%.......

This market wants to go higher........

So...position for bull tape !!!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

S&P 500 UP 2.7%........now 1311.06 !!!!!

Markets as expected took off after fighting huge negative forces on Monday......

All indices are UP over 2.2% or more......

Up volume are crushing down volume by HUGE margin......

Advancing issues are almost 9 times more than decliners......

These are extremely strong internals...........

@ 2.15PM Fed will cut fed funds by minimum 75 basis.....which will propel this market further UP....hopefully !!!!

I will post my comments on Fed funds CUT @ 3 PM post.......

In my portfolio :

CSIQ UP 56 cents +3.0%

CMED UP 52 cents +1.3%

NVDA UP 18 cents +1.0%

RIMM UP $4.67 +4.7%

TOL UP $2.11 +10.9%

Overall portfolio UP +5.9%

Why am I analyzing $ gain + % gain of each stock...this way you can see which stocks are stronger & by how much..... and how YOUR stocks are faring against the Market gain % & $ wise !!!

@11.27AM the following are green :

EGO,LDK,JNPR,FMCN,BRCM,TSL,C,GS,LEH,DELL,SNDK,VMW,
MTU,AMAT,CTRN,ICE,YHOO,PHM,AAPL,IGT,TSO,WYNN,
LVS,POT,NYX(huge stock buyback & increase in dividend),NMX,
VLO,SPWR,FSLR,ISRG,XLF,SNE,AMZN,IFN,DRYS,GOOG,FWLT,
MA,EZA,STP,SNDA,NDAQ,CIEN,JASO,FXI.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Futures staying HIGH inspite of PPI numbers !!!!

PPI came in HOT.......

Housing numbers are stable ......

Futures maintaining its UPward MOMentum...

Markets are giving a "clear signal" that we are a starting a "new phase of UP market NOW"

Fed IS ahead of the curve & market KNOWS it NOW.......

Stocks are washed out & has been brought to a level ......that it IS very attractive......

Can we say "BUY LOW & SELL much much HIGHER !!!!!

Be READY for a different UPWARD moving market NOW......

All strong stocks are moving UP sharply in pre-market.......

NO more RETEST of LOWS.....

NO more looking for SUPPORT......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, March 17, 2008

S&P 500 closed @ 1276.60 !!!!

Markets surprised everybody by being down only to 1256.98 in S&P 500......

Most technicians will be heartened by the fact that US markets showed support in fed latest strategy to help the economy & the markets.......

S&P retest of low CAN be called successful...based on today's close........

Tuesday ...we should see a very green day as fed will be more accommodating with fed funds rate cut !!!!

In my portfolio :

CSIQ rating 55/90 target $20.09

CMED rating 85/45 target $41.97

NVDA rating 55/95 target $19.29

RIMM rating 40/85 target $105.88

TOL rating 50/70 target $20.45

In other stocks :

DRYS rating 55/90 target $69.52

JNPR rating 45/85 "downtrend confirmed @ $24.85" target $22.92...IF NOT 1st UP target of $25.75

Some stocks which were strong AAPL,HPQ,INTC,WFR,GRMN,NTRI,SWIR,JASO,JPM,
DUG,QID.....

Hopefully we will see a much better tape on Tuesday.......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

S&P 500 @ 1272.23 !!!!

Markets always do the opposite if enough people believe in one direction.......

It IS known as "contrary indicator"

US markets have been trying to find support around 1270 on S&P 500.....

S&P 500 went as low as 1262.71 after open...higher than pre-market of 1257 area & low in Asia @ 1250 area......

Why do I highlight S&P 500...because it is broad based 500 stocks index...which gives a better picture of strength/weakness.....

I personally believe that investors with broad diversification will do well as markets try to form a strong base.......

US$ is strong against most currency including Canadian $.....

OIL is down after reaching record level.....most commodities are down except Gold..as there is a US$ based reversal going on......

In my portfolio :

CSIQ down $1.14

CMED down 57 cents

NVDA down 31 cents

RIMM down $2.76

TOL down 46 cents

@11.34 AM the following are green:

DUG,CTRN,IGT,AUY,ABX,GG,EWJ,QID....

Good luck on this support building day !!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

S&P 500 futures @ 1260.......

Futures are trading 2%+ lower........

Is today the day we discount BSC disaster which fed gave a hint in its Q&A to finance committee??

As fed is extremely aggressive & "ahead of the curve NOW"...there IS a good chance that selling climax will be here on wall street.......imho

Today...I think that we will know the support on S&P 500......

I still hope that close SHOULD be better than low of the day......

Markets ARE discounting even collapse of highly leveraged entity like BSC......rumour has it that BSC @ one time was leveraged 40 to 1.....Friday it was only 30 to 1.......

We should see the final leg of selling done today for all intensive purposes????

Shorts should do a major covering @ some point today...I think shorts are more NERVOUS today as even they think markets are as low as they can get????

I am NOT making any changes in my portfolio as I write this post...but..but..but..will keep a close eye on selling.......

Today...is another day where prices will be extremely attractive @ some point for short & long term traders........

This IS a typical bottoming action of a market which had lot to digest since august.....

Are you taking a note...that Gold is backing off from its overnight high of $32++?????

Again... profit taking is happening in gold also????

Sometimes the bottom/support is found with a blowup like BSC?????

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Shortest Bear market lasted 3 months in 1990-1991 !!!

We have a history of many bear markets.....

This time most economist are comparing with 1990-1991 recession & saying it will be like that..when recession was short lived & ended in 3 months........

Depending on how you define recession..but job data of negative 2 months growth has confirmed recession is 2/3rd done & over with.......

This recession will be short because we did not go into "bubble territory in stocks market indices"......average PE of S&P 500 was 17 @ high in fall ...compared to ongoing average of 16.5 PE on S&P.....so we were trading @ average PE when all hell started to broke loose since October of 07.......

This bear market is already 4 1/2 month old............

So what are the chances that this bear is just about done ????

Fed has been extremely pro-active in dealing "effectively & decisively with any & all issues facing this economy"

Markets are digesting this "aggressive moves by fed,treasury & white house"........

Once markets feel enough focus IS already there to resolve current "liquidity crisis"......

Then we WILL start to move UP "quickly"........

This move UP will be sustained and bets will be on the long side......all ultra pro long will be the vehicle for major move UP.......

This week staring Monday will give us a "clear indicator by close...as to what the verdict of market IS"

As we are close to "changing the bias to BULL"...let us examine PE vs EPS growth rate of some strong stocks :

BIDU..$3.91+57.54%$268.05PE68.55
GOOG$17.45 +31.31%$437.92PE25.10
ISRG..$5.10 +37.74%$283.07PE55.50
CMED..$2.15 +41.38%$40.19PE18.69
AAPL..$5.12 +30.25%$126.61PE24.73
RIMM..$3.38+ 50.96%$101.69PE30.09
DRYS..$18.30+91.79%$60.01PE3.28
FSLR...$2.50+63.14%$200.84PE80.34
CSIQ...$1.52 +7683%$19.53 PE 12.85
BUCY..$5.12 +35.03%$109.25PE21.34
POT....$7.51 +120.97%$160.46PE21.37
TOL.....<50cents>...<$19.47.PE<
BZH... <$5.43> < .. $8.01... PE<
NVDA $1.40 +6.9% $18.32.. PE 13.09
SNDK $1.48 +37.5% $22.15..PE 14.97

There you have it........

Something to think about & act on your own due diligence.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, March 15, 2008

New BUY signal stocks for "RETEST of LOWS ??? "

The following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your own FA & TA.Please manage your risk by using stop.

AAPL,ARBA,CRUS,CALM,ECA,GME,HL,IAG,HOT,HTX,GG,
PER,RMD,DBS,EEV,EGO,ABX,AUY.

Next post 10AM Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically STRONG stocks for "RETEST of LOWS ??? "

The following stocks are showing strength based on various technical formations.Please do your own due diligence & place stop to limit loss.

SOLF,X,DKS,INSP,WFR,YGE,TIBX,OSIP,PX,XLNX,MGM,
BIIB,HES,BMC,MFE,NMX,TMX,TRAD,AMZN,CELG,LFC,
CHINA,ZRAN,DO.

TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)

XGD,NMC,PUR,SOR,PAR,MR,BAA,DAX,RGL,HSE.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically WEAK stocks for "RETEST of LOWS ??? "

The following stocks are showing weakness based on various technical formations.Please do your own due diligence & place stop to control loss.

BG,DO,SWKS,XRAY,AKAM,DELL,ALVR,HRB,KO,KMB,AEA,
MSO,WAVE,SVNT,AEA,PANL,FDS,TSM,LNC,RHT,PKX,
ALK,ESRX.

TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)

CLS,TS.B,FSV,MFI,CR,ACC.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem