Markets took a run @ lows for S&P 500 but fell short of taking the low of 1270.05....only missed by 2.61.........
So...Tuesday is the next day to make another assault @ taking S&P 500 lower than Jan lows..
Market has been brutal to most sectors..but solar got the worst of this carnage......
It did NOT matter which solar stocks you had.... be it FSLR,SPWR,STP,TSL,YGE,SOLF,LDK or CSIQ...they are racing below any support ?????
This IS ironic...because solar companies are all growing Sales @ 100% with rapid acceleration in earnings.......
But...in a market which is suffering from credit malaise and is behaving worse than any bear market ..I have ever encountered......
Why do i say that ???
Because in a typical bear markets...there are many rallies along the way in making new lows gradually....
We are below levels which has not been seen since Sep of 06.....almost 18 months pullback.....
Selling has been relentless since Oct based on Aug sell off based on credit concerns......so if we take Aug sell off based on sub-prime mess......that takes us into 8 months of relentless selling ????
So...if you are feeling hopeless & losing equity...you are NOT alone...
Unless you were short all along since Aug...then you have GAINED equity......if this is what you have done......Congratulations...you are a GENIUS !!!!
So how am I dealing with this market ????
First I am trying very hard to figure out a game plan.....based on fundamental analysis & based on oversold conditions..guess what ??
It did NOT work ???
Because markets are NOT following any old rules/strategy which I have learned over the years...we are talking 40 years...it is all have been NO learning @ all......
So that left ME extremely "vulnerable on the downside in this carnage"
So...I had to adjust today to this "new.... NO historical pattern strategy"
This IS also a "crap shoot for this market...but I do NOT know anything different LEFT to do"
So........ I did the following in my portfolio :
Sold all LDK and booked a loss of $21 per share...highest loss in last 2 years in a single stock.....
Sold 41% of CSIQ and booked a loss of $8.50 per share......
Bought RIMM cost $93.88
Bought more COIN cost went down to $13.73
My current portfolio is :
CSIQ,CMED,COIN & RIMM......
CSIQ rating 45/70 target $19.63
CMED rating 100/70 target $40.57
COIN rating 40/90 target $13.15
RIMM rating 55/70 target $101.09
Other stocks :
LDK rating 45/95 target $26.83
AGU rating 65/90 target $68.89
EGO rating 50/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $7.12 with a target of $7.85
In this market ...what I have done with today's juggling of portfolio..that I am going with the verdict of market...instead of how I wanted to position..It is never too late to accept the verdict of market.....
So.... I have reduced my exposure to solar in a big way..based on negative tape & short attack on LDK.....still in solar exposure with CSIQ..where analyst are positive...
RIMM has been holding UP pretty good in this negative tape with orderly pullback....
COIN is the most exciting play in Ag with "organic fertilizer"
CMED is in medical devices & stayed green in this negative tape......
The reason.....I am explaining all this....is to get you in my thought process of today's CHANGE FWIW.....
Technicians are saying that we will go lower Tuesday and hopefully we will rebound for a "relief rally".....I hope so.....I can definitely use some green days to rebuild my equity......
I will be happy to answer any question about my strategy or your approach......as I do understand that this "freefall has NOT been easy either for equity or psyche"
Good luck for a "turnaround Tuesday"
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
13 comments:
Hi Saleem. Tough day for sure. It could be argued Sptitzer had the worst day, but he deserved it. What made you hold on to COIN. It got hammered with a 28.18% drop. AG leadership (MOS, AGU, CF and POT) all closed below the 50 dma. My trading account is 25% DXD and 75% cash. My other etf etc. account got hammered with IFN and EWM leading the way lower.
Hi Minaccess,
I have been following COIN since Doug bought it and you were involved......
I like the story of COIN and the tape is always volatile...I feel $10++ is a major support....let us see if this will hold on a closing basis.....
So Coin is back to where it started from...not a bad place to stay IN......
DXD will work fine in AM...keep an eye to sell as bounce is overdue in markets....imho
EWM had serious currency issue...so you should evaluate that ETF..
Saleem
This is an excerpt from Schwab daily commentary. "The S&P 500 is now only three points above its support at 1270, the January low. With no sign of panic, that support looks suspect. A breakdown followed by further declines is likley at this juncture. Even if the S&P 500 tests that support level and rebounds, any rally would not be sustainable without a capitulation. A rally would become
an opportunity to hedge or exit some long positions."
Just one mans opinion. Good luck to all.
HI Painterman,
Thanks for the info from Schwab...
Everybody is saying rally to be sold...sometimes near new lows..it is very difficult to predict with any accuracy....
VIX was @ 29.73 @ low ..but closed @ 29.38.....
30+ on vix is considered capitulation....we missed it by 27 tick today...tuesday should do it..imho
Saleem
Saleem,
I've never seen anything like this before either. But we never had the internet before this point in time or the hedge funds. So there is no time buffer, no time to think about things, everyone just reacts instantly to any rumors. If the hedgies stampede the herds who knows what will happen. Stay tuned.
Hi Standards,
Yes ..you are right about click & mouse selling.....
But...this should have speeded up the decline like done & overwith in 2 months with test & RETEST of support....
Now we are in 5th months of decline..if we take it from Oct...
We shall see when the game TURNS UP !!!
Saleem
Saleem,
I wonder if the VIX is not going up like it used to because many retailers know how to use inverse ETF's and are capitalizing on the down side instead of panicking like they used to? Just a thought.
Hi Saleem. Looks like we are going to have a nice open. This will be a welcome reprieve.
GOOD MORNING to all felow bloggers!
HURRAY I see lots of GREEN.
If this is not a head fake maybe we can grind out a nice high close. I say grind because no one can tell what is going to happen. I just wish I was all in cash.
I will sell my LDK today if it does not go green
Good luck to all
M
Hi Doug,
VIX is an indicator which IS helpful...but near 30....I became aggressive and rejigged my portfolio......
Too many people believe in some numbers....but it works only few times...NEVER the same WORKS all the time....
Anytime you see 11 sell everything and anytime close to 30 buy buy...
Being aware of the range IS a good thing.
Saleem
Hi Minaccess,
Hope you ahve covered your double short in pre-market.....
Suggest going long full tilt ..imho
Saleem
Hi Madmax,
Fed gave a party ..and evrybody IS showing UP.....
Enjoy the Irish GREEN colour !!!
Saleem
SALEEM
Your RIMM is on FIRE-yes!!!!!!!
COIN is up and CMED continues to go up!
CSIQ up 7%--hurray. If this continues you will be back in the game. So I guess that your reshuffle of stocks is paying off. Congraduations
M
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