Markets are showing further momentum by going higher than stunning close yesterday.....
White house is taking more steps to liquefy mortgages by dropping reserve requirement of FNM & FRE by 33%...thus creating an instant $200 billion for lending.....they are also trying reduce other restrictions so they can further increase their capital......all in all a major PLUS for dealing with mortgage crisis......
In my portfolio :
Sold RIMM and booked profit of $11.15 per share......
Bought BRCM @ $17.58
Boght V...price in dispute as I had a bad fill...they have promises to look into it.....it was a market order before open ..V opened @ $59.50..I was given a fill of $62.99...NOT nice ????
My portfolio is :
BRCM,CSIQ,CMED,NVDA,TOL & V......
CSIQ down 77 cents
CMED down 93 cents
NVDA down 68 cents
TOL UP 83 cents
BRCM down 6 cents
V UP $15.95...I am down $3.04 based on stated fill.....
@ 11.28 AM the following are green :
QLD,DUG,C,CTRN,IGT,TSO,WYNN,CTRP,MA,LVS,VLO,
SPWR,ISRG,XLF,SNE,AMZN,GOOG.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
27 comments:
Congrats on nice profit with RIMM my man!!! The V situation is not nice at all. I hope you get treated fairly. I do think V will be way past $62 in the near future. Best wishes.
Hi Doug,
Thanks for your note.
V price is very upsetting....but cannot win against crooks...so may have to live with it.....
Saleem
I do not want to be judgmental and I do not want to criticize another person, so I will say " I love Herb Greenberg" I just pray he will heal. LOL...
Did some daytrading with V, bought at 57 then sold at 60, and bought again at 58/- lets see how it turns out...
Hi Doug,
No..you are NOT being judgmental..
Greenberg is Greenberg...there is nothing which CAN be done...
He provides good HUMOUR for all of US...
Saleem
Is V a long term buy/hold? MA has 80M shares vs Visa with 450M shares... what do you guys think?
Saleem,
I was able to get 100 V at IPO price $44 from Schwab. Took your advice not to jump in with both feet. I think that was good advice. I usually risk my neck on some IPO's but with this market, You just never know when it could take a turn for the worst.
Hi Troy,
Good moves with V....
This IS a traders market...
Nothing IS long term hold.
Saleem
Hi Standards,
Congratulations on 100 V @ IPO price......
This is a good IPO for a change.
Saleem
Saleem
Nice move on RIMM--in this market toi capture a move like that WOW
Congradualtions are in order....
As for V Oh Well. they always scalp ya, if they can.
SO we learn another of their moves to sneak up on our money!
I still got my POT I guess I gotta start day trading again
Now it is way down below my price of $155, Yuk
M
SALEEM
News on POT
Potash Worth Feasting On
By Will Frankenhoff March 19, 2008
1 Recommendation
I hate chasing a stock. Especially when the stock in question has enjoyed a spectacular run and trades at a relatively rich valuation. But sometimes, the growth story is so exciting that I bite the bullet. Canadian-based Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) is a case in point. Shares of the world's largest producer of fertilizers have advanced some 215% in the last year, lifting the valuation to roughly 22 times consensus fiscal 2008 estimates of $7.38.
That would appear to be quite a steal if the company could continue to grow at its five-year historical annual rate of 94%. But with analysts expecting just 10% growth in the next five years, that's a hefty price tag in terms of growth potential.
Of course, you can't always bank on what analysts project. And thanks to Potash's commanding position in the expanding fertilizer market, along with its advantage of being a low-cost producer, I believe the company will continue to outperform.
The fertilizer market in general
According to the International Fertilizer Industry Association, global fertilizer demand grew 5% in 2007, and is expected to expand an average 3.5% over the next two years as increased grain consumption in emerging-market countries such as India and China, growing demand for biofuels, and rising crop prices spur farmers to plant more.
This is no temporary trend. The world's population is expected to grow from roughly 6.7 billion currently to 9.2 billion in 2050, meaning more people will have to eat. Rising incomes in many emerging-market countries are rapidly changing dietary habits in favor of eating more chicken and beef, which increases demand for grain fodder. In fact, inventories are at their lowest in 17 years, and with roughly 90% of farmland already utilized, farmers turn to fertilizers to enhance the quantity of production possible per acre.
Ahead of competitors CF Industries (NYSE: CF), Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), and Agrium (NYSE: AGU), Potash Corp. is a force in fertilizer as the largest potash player in the world, the second-largest producer of nitrogen, and the third in phosphates. Given that prices of all three fertilizer products are increasing rapidly, this certainly bodes well for the company's prospects. Its unique position in the potash market is what strikes me as its most alluring investment characteristic, and the segment that should propel much of the company's future growth.
The potash market
Potash Corp. operations accounted for 17% of worldwide production of potash in 2007 and 22% of global capacity. It holds an estimated 75% of the world's excess capacity. Potash Corp. should be able to secure its position in the market, as opening a new mine can cost roughly $2 billion to $2.5 billion, and then take nearly five years to come fully online. That certainly seems like a considerable barrier to entry.
Additionally, potash supplies are particularly tight these days, naturally pushing prices up. Farmers are willing to pay premium prices for quality fertilizers since the additional crops they can yield provide lucrative returns. Consequently, contracts are resetting at much higher prices. This has already translated into improved margin expansion and boosted earnings growth for Potash Corp. and should further enhance financial performance if these trends persist.
Low-cost production base
In addition to its notable market share, Potash Corp.'s other competitive advantage is its low-cost production base. Take, for example, the company's nitrogen business. Close to 66% of Potash's ammonia production is located in Trinidad, which allows the company to secure low natural gas prices, which can constitute nearly 90% of the production cost. Further, the company's mines are located in low-cost areas, and management puts its production near end users to minimize transportation costs.
Summary
Potash's shares may appear richly valued. But I think there is a growth story here. The company is the global leader in a rapidly expanding industry, holds what could be termed a quasi-monopoly in the important potash market, and is also a flexible, low-cost producer. Potash is poised to continue benefiting from current bullish agricultural trends, and this kind of growth potential and market-share positioning doesn't come cheap. So, investors, load up your plates and enjoy the feast
Hi Madmax,
Locking profit is the only way...or else you see it go.....
Solar are a disaster zone again...
POT is showing weakness as a sector...along with gold & oil.
Saleem
SALEEM
You may be on to something with NVDA:
IBD say:
Company Description:
DESIGNS PROGRAMMABLE GRAPHIC PROCESSORS FOR COMPUTERS, NET WORKS, AND HANDHELD/DIGITAL CONSUMER ELECTRONIC DEVICES.
97 18 D+ A D+ Not bad scores!
major competition:
Amkor Technology Inc AMKR
Omnivision Technologies OVTI
Xilinx Inc XLNX
Power Integrations Inc POWI
Microchip Tech MCHP
Any reason that you chose NVDA??
thanks
Hi Madmax,
I am positioning in sectors which has been IGNORED by this market...
I always try to go to oversold sectors....which may be ready for their TURN......
I am very heavy in techs NOW....made more trades....
Saleem
Saleem and all,
Just for fun, Im going to call that the markets end green today! No science to back opinion. It just seems that hedgies were buying right up to the close yesterday and paying top prices. That and this just feels like attempt to get weak hands out before a turnaround. IMO. I just bought some QLD so money is where mouth is. Any else care to weigh in???
SALEEM
I gotta love the way you think.
It is sector rotation!!
or it is something else.
I still like AG sector.
If you are in early in a new sector, than you reep the benefit of being at the right place at the right time.
$$$$$$$$$$
M
Hi Doug,
See...if any strategy ...you do NOT have to be RIGHT same day...next day is OK....
Always position today for tommorrow...that should WORK....
I NEVER worry for today....it IS next day which IS a better bet....
QLD should work for OE day & last day of the week..which IS thursday !!!
They ARE controlling the downside for OE purposes !!!
Good luck on your BET !!!
Saleem
Saleem,
just my 2 cents. Ag stocks have started showing signs of weakness. e.g DBA. POT is like the last bastion.
In solar FSLR, csun look mildly bullish.
AAPL and DIS are holding strong as well.
In shipping, I would prefer DRYS in the low 50s and DSX around 21s.
As for today, I bought a load of DXD at 56. I will wait till 60.
saleem - when do you think is diving into V a good point?
-clarke
Also, to confirm does FSLR look like a symmetrical triangle bull set up?
sorry, I am relatively a newbie at TA.
Hi Clarke,
Market verdict is very clear on S UP & many $ down beneficiaries..like ag,gold,oil...
Solar should be stable as they have been struggling for support for months....no linkage with $ either.
V is a buy today...as it will move UP from here.....
US$.. I am long and it IS going much higher !!!
Good luck on your strategy !!!
Saleem
Saleem,
I guess I got it a little wrong on the close. LOL. I still feel ready to profit tomorrow if we are green intra day. We will see.
Hi Doug,
As I said before......it is NOT important to be right same day....
It IS critical to be right next day.
Saleem
So just think: every desk trader that works for the pro's, knew all day long that they were going to tank the market in the last hour. So all the talking heads on t.v. today who were talking bottom is in, were setting up the traps to destroy regular old Joe. I bet there momma's are proud.
Hi Doug,
There is a famous saying by John F Kennedy.....
"Ask NOT what country can do for YOU......
But what YOU can do for YOURSELF"
See..you have a trading desk....did you have a good plan for tommorrow?
NO...you had a plan for TODAY.....not a great strategy!!!!
So ask yourself always what YOU CAN DO for next trading day always & JFK will be proud of you !!!!
Saleem
Hi all,
Hope you all had a better day than I did but from the comments, it seems we're all in the same boat.
One day I'll learn to stay miles away from the market during options expiration week. :o) or rather :o(
Beatrice
This CNBC headline does not make sense. "Dow Sheds Over 2% as Oil Plunges Nearly $5" Market should rally on Oil being down but it goes down...!!
V buy seems to be a good buy, I would look to add more on any decline/
"There are two ways we would go with [Visa] stock," David Menlow, president of IPOFinancial.com, told CNBC. "You buy it when it goes down and you buy it when it goes up, because they are the biggest and the best at what they do. They overshadow what happens with MasterCard ... Their growth and expansion plans are really staggering."
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