We have a history of many bear markets.....
This time most economist are comparing with 1990-1991 recession & saying it will be like that..when recession was short lived & ended in 3 months........
Depending on how you define recession..but job data of negative 2 months growth has confirmed recession is 2/3rd done & over with.......
This recession will be short because we did not go into "bubble territory in stocks market indices"......average PE of S&P 500 was 17 @ high in fall ...compared to ongoing average of 16.5 PE on S&P.....so we were trading @ average PE when all hell started to broke loose since October of 07.......
This bear market is already 4 1/2 month old............
So what are the chances that this bear is just about done ????
Fed has been extremely pro-active in dealing "effectively & decisively with any & all issues facing this economy"
Markets are digesting this "aggressive moves by fed,treasury & white house"........
Once markets feel enough focus IS already there to resolve current "liquidity crisis"......
Then we WILL start to move UP "quickly"........
This move UP will be sustained and bets will be on the long side......all ultra pro long will be the vehicle for major move UP.......
This week staring Monday will give us a "clear indicator by close...as to what the verdict of market IS"
As we are close to "changing the bias to BULL"...let us examine PE vs EPS growth rate of some strong stocks :
BIDU..$3.91+57.54%$268.05PE68.55
GOOG$17.45 +31.31%$437.92PE25.10
ISRG..$5.10 +37.74%$283.07PE55.50
CMED..$2.15 +41.38%$40.19PE18.69
AAPL..$5.12 +30.25%$126.61PE24.73
RIMM..$3.38+ 50.96%$101.69PE30.09
DRYS..$18.30+91.79%$60.01PE3.28
FSLR...$2.50+63.14%$200.84PE80.34
CSIQ...$1.52 +7683%$19.53 PE 12.85
BUCY..$5.12 +35.03%$109.25PE21.34
POT....$7.51 +120.97%$160.46PE21.37
TOL.....<50cents>...<$19.47.PE<
BZH... <$5.43> < .. $8.01... PE<
NVDA $1.40 +6.9% $18.32.. PE 13.09
SNDK $1.48 +37.5% $22.15..PE 14.97
There you have it........
Something to think about & act on your own due diligence.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
27 comments:
Hi Saleem. Bear markets are defined by a 20% drop from it's high. Given that definition, we are less than 2 months into a nasdaq bear market. We have not reached a bear market in the S&P 500, DOW or NYSE.
Hi Minaccess,
When it acts like one,feels like one & lose money like one......then it MUST be defined as "bear market".....
Nasdaq is deep in bear market territory....
That is enough of an indication that "technically the bear has been in nasdaq & getting more bearish with each close"
Yes....Dow,S&P & NYSE has escaped but russell 2000...is in deep bear category......
Saleem
Under the Hood: The next gold rush: solar power
http://www.eetimes.com/news/design/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=VAGDCAYMTH33CQSNDLOSKHSCJUNN2JVN?articleID=206902796
Hi, salim.
It does not looks like end.BSC and other financial problem, housing problem has to be resolved. BSC problem is worst and it can take whole market down. GS took billions loss..PR. likely to be on monday morning.
Hi Ds,
BSC is the tell tale sign of what this mess is all about.....
In the end of correction...blowup like that are very common....
Market looks ahead imho...
Market close on monday will be telling....
Saleem
Hi Troy,
Solar future is very bright.....no doubt about it......
How to make money in solar stocks will be challenging to say the least.....
Saleem
Hi Saleem. BSC possibly selling for $15-20 a share. That's a 50% drop from friday's 50% drop. I am not sure how the market will react. There will be relief BSC isn't bankrupt, but the low price (I believe) will spook the market. I am heavy in AUY and CDE, whuch should do well in anticipation of rate cuts tuesday which have to be at least 50 basis points and probably 75. I sold my DXD a few days to early.
Hi Minaccess,
Markets will rally on sale of BSC...
Bankruptcy is a bad option for market.
When market did not closed @ or near low.....it was saying that BSC issue will be resolved before market opens on monday.
$15 to $20 is afair price imho.
Try to lock profit in AUY as gold & Oil are ready to pullback on BSC sale news....
Looking for a green close on monday ....I hope !!!
Saleem
Hi Saleem. You are correct, at least the initial reaction. The futures are up 0.75% and gold is up $6.10.
Hi Minaccess,
BSC sold for $2 !!!!!!
What a collapse......
Fed reduce lending rate by .25% @ the same .....
Saleem
Wow, do we see DOW @ 10,000 tomorrow or next week...this looks real bad...
Saleem, what do you think?
Hi Saleem. This is just crazy! Nasdaq futures down 1.91%. Gold up $22. The initial response was good, but when $2 announced it all went to ****.
Hi Troy,
Yes....we will take the LOW out....hoping for a bounce by close.
Saleem
Hi Minaccess,
Nikkei down 390..over 3% down...
$2 was a shocker for BSC.....
Still looking for a recovery by close......
Saleem
Hi Saleem. This may just be the "whoosh" we need to get all the selling done. My wish list if all stocks got oversold is: POT, DAR, TITN, ABV and JOYG.
Next shoe to drop
GS news.. hearing about 3 bil writedow
Hi Minaccess,
It is UGLY in asia...
Nikkei down 515
Hang seng down 1125
Singapore down 86
4% down on average......
Your list is very good to scoop on downdraft......
Saleem
There is a rumor the US markets may be closed tomorrow. That would be a huge mistake. This needs to play out. Closing foe a day would cause panic.
Hi Minaccess,
Closing the market will be very bad.....there will be MORE selling next day if they do it.....
We better fasten our seatbelt for the ride DOWN.....
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
How are going to manage this market? Are you going to sell stocks to protect Capital, hold and wait it out, buy more when they are down...? Just wondering what your thoughts are on dealing with this situation. I own BIDU and my first impulse is to sell at the open???
Thanks much for your take.
Hi Doug,
I am still of the belief that today we will find support & build from there........
Close SHOULD be better than low of the day.
So...it is a good day to position to BUY...
Hope it helps.
Saleem
Thank you Sir. Always appreciate your outlook. I had 100 shares of BIDU @$269. I went ahead and sold at the open of pre market for $261.68. Not too bad. I'll take the hit to be in cash so that I can sit on the sidelines and wait to see where buy opportunities are or if the market should get worse, the old blood pressure can stay in check. Talk soon and thanks for quick reply. Good luck today Saleem and fellow bloggers.
Saleem,
What stocks do you think would be good for quick recovery/rebound? I am just wondering what you will be watching to consider buying if beaten down? I am watching MA and BIDU but I would like to get your take so I don't miss something juicy to consider as a buy for a potential relief rally trade???
I am also going to keep my eye on SPY also. May or may not be today but soon. Just a thought.
Hi Doug,
Keep an eye on POT,DRYS,RIMM,AAPL.....they will recover fast !!!
Saleem
Thanks Saleem,
I'm adding them to my ticker watch list right now. Best wishes.
DOUG
Keep an eye on POT,DRYS,RIMM,AAPL.....they will recover fast !!!
Please add: OII, GRP, CHL, WHQ and I love POT, moved over $6 bucks in lessa than an hour Friday --twice
Hows that for action?
Good Luck
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