Sunday, February 28, 2010

Market profile has changed......

Market goes through many changes depending on what it sees or does not see.......

Market profile has definitely changed based on many economic issues which is "far from resolved"

European debt situation is in flux.......

US economic picture is mixed....

High growth economy like China & India are experiencing slower than expected growth..either induced by govt policies OR strength in economy is less than expected.....India's latest GDP growth was less than expected..it is struggling @ 6% area.......China on the other hand should grow around 9%.....US GDP is expected around 3% area.......these are all 2010 GDP numbers...

Market is trying to factor all this in its daily trading activity.......

Until July......after Q2 ER is out...there is a chance that we trade in a narrow range of 1080 to 1150 range in S&P 500...currently we are @ 1104.49.......

Till July...it will be an excellent hyper-trading market.......

For the most part IF you do NOT trade....your equity will be stagnant to LOWER.......

I will highlight how two widely followed stocks have done in a long span of time.......

First AAPL....which hit $202.96 in Nov 07..after 27 months..it is still @ $204.62.....

Second GOOG...in April 2007 it was close to $500....after 32 months it is still @ $526.....

It is important to note that their EPS continues to grow every year...so it is NOT slump in earnings which is causing this long-term stagnation......

SO..it is important to understand that trading ranges in stocks IS a fact of life...IF you IGNORE this reality...then any profit will turn into loss......

In next 5 months until mid July...I expect trading range in stocks to be extremely narrow.....so take advantage of any profit which you can get.....even daytrading may not be a bad idea.....for traders closing every trade by end of the day MAY be more profitable....

IF you have a very good handle on the fundamentals of any sector...then "longer term hold" MAY workout pretty good......

I am also TRYING to figure out which stocks may get me the profitable trades......it is getting very hard lately for me......

I will stick to what makes me comfortable...it is important to stay in the market...but with safer strategy......exposure in market needs to be LESS these days......

Here is my sector/$ allocation(exposure is 50% less than normal) as of Friday:

APWR 30.24% AE/Wind Turbine RSI 49.17
IAG 27.17% Gold Mining RSI 50.69
SLW 22.87% Silver reseller RSI 50.66
PALM 19.72% Tech/Smartphone RSI 18.73

Although i am well diversified in many sectors.....BUT PALM has been a major drag....it has become a speculative hold for me.....RSI is unbelievable......so a technical oversold bounce should happen......

Please do your OWN evaluation of the market & ensure your exposure reflects your investing/trading style.

Comfort level needs to be very high in this RANGEBOUND market.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Buy rated stocks....

Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

APWR,IAG,SLW,AAPL,CLNE,CME,FUQI,
FMCN,ISRG,HOT,IBN,MR,RCI,SAY,TC,
TLM,TTM,NAK,CEF.....

Next post by noon on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, February 26, 2010

Nasdaq closed above 50 DMA on high volume...NICE !!!!

Nasdaq is leading other Indices again as the first to close above 50 DMA...S&P 500 is near & next is Dow....

On a snowy Friday..Nasdaq volume was high......

All indices closed Green....

VIX closed @ 19.50 Down 2.99%....again getting close to 52 wk low

Gold jumped $10.50 to $1118.30

Oil Jumped $1.49 to $79.66

By noon Saturday..I will list buy rated stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices struggling on poor housing data....

Housing is looking like taking a double dip ..housing is an important wheel in our recovery....

Indices are staying either side of close......

Markets are dealing with many uncertainty...thus basing in 1090 to 1110 in S&P 500????

Gold UP 40 cents

Oil UP $1.18

Canadian $ UP 55 tick to 94.84

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW......

@12.51 following are green :

SLW,IAG,TC,AAPL,RIMM,SOHU,TLM,
PWRD,SINA,IBN,ISRG,GOOG,BIDU,MA,
LVS,AMZN,NXY,FMCN,ICE,FUQI,FSLR....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Stunning comeback in Markets......NICE !!!!

Negativity was @ PEAK @ open & continued till mid-day....anything could go wrong did go wrong.....Greece was in play....Jobs situation getting worse.....& everybody wanted to sell....

BUT...by close S&P 500 & Nasdaq closed @ high of the day..almost made it into GREEN.....

Volume came roaring in late trading...above average volume on this turnaround....

Solar stocks got a bid on analysts upgrades.....

Gold & commodities came roaring back from deep RED to high GREEN by close......

TODAY...TAPE was perfect for a "V" turnaround....

PALM had almost 100 million volume day....RSI @ close 20.21...NEVER seen that in any stock that I have owned.....still have my entire position in all stocks including PALM......

Most stocks went from DEEP RED to NICE GREEN.....

AH ER from TC was a BEAT & confirming guidance.....

AH futures are GREEN

AH Oil UP

AH Nikkei,Hang Seng UP

On humorous note.....Adami was euphoric @ half time when markets were tanking..does he really trade or talks bearish 99% of the time...because I cannot imagine him having any equity left by being WRONG on a consistent basis....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Rising Jobless claims derailing markets....

Jobless claims in 2010 has been rising against consensus.....Jobs are closely linked to economy thus a fear of slowdown AGAIN.....

Indices are Down from 1.31% to 1.53%......

It is almost 1 day Up & 1 day Down these days.....

Gold UP $6.70 @ $1103.20

Oil Down $2.55

Canadian $ Down 70 tick to 93.93

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW......

PALM came out with warning for the Q & Year expecting "substantial revision for the year"...This was being telegraphed by many analysts in recent weeks......Stock down 15.57% although off its low of the day which was @ $6.30..already traded 62 million shares in 3.5 hours..sounds like CAPITULATION finally......

@ 1.05 following are green :

IAG,SLW,APWR,TSL,EGO,GNK,AGU,SOL,GG,POT,
AUY,KGC,LULU,AEM,ABX,BRCD....

PS...Post was delayed due to snow clearing activity.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Green close in all indices...NICE !!!!

Nasdaq closed above 50 DMA while S&P 500 & Dow are ready to take out 50 DMA....

Ben Bernanke managed to give hope to market bulls by stating that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time....

Many stocks participated in this rally......

AH ER from NTES & GNK was greeted with positive AH action....

My portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW.....

PALM continues to be under bear attack on a daily basis...technicals are weak still....RSI has gone to 27.29....it is so oversold..there is no word to describe it......

AH Futures are Down

AH Shanghai & Hang Seng UP

AH Singapore & Nikkei Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sold all TSL for $2.22 per share loss....

Liquidated my entire position in TSL for a loss of $2.22 per share.....

TAPE of TSL was very poor today on extremely heavy volume.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .88% to 1.06%...NICE !!!!

Ben Bernanke testimony gave clear indication that Interest rates will remain low as economic recovery is on the weak side.......so Indices turned UP....

Gold UP 30 cents

Oil UP 85 cents

Canadian $ UP 13 tick

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TSL.......

TSL despite its stellar earnings & guidance is subjected to selling by some hedge funds..motive is unclear..could be a strategy to get cheaper shares then move it UP...volume is heavy 4.7+ million shares in three hour..low of the day so far is $22.02....

@ 12.28 following are green :

PALM,IAG,MRVL,CREE,NTES,ISRG,BIDU,
RIMM,AAPL,GS,AMZN,FMCN,SNDA,ICE,
JRCC,AEM,VAR.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

TSL ER was a BEAT on EPS & Sales....NICE !!!!

TSL Q4 consensus was following :

Sales $283.52 Million

EPS 60 cents

TSL ACTUAL is :

Sales $313.3 Million BEAT by $29.78 million or +10.50%

EPS 74 cents BEAT by 14 cents or +23.33%

Gross Margin 32.6% vs guidance of 25% to 27%

Guidance Q1 180 to 190 MW vs Q4 of 164 MW ,sequential increase of 21MW or +12.8% ..Margin 26% to 28%..

Full year 2010 guidance 750 MW to 800 MW vs 2009 ACTUAL of 399 MW....guiding almost +100% Y/Y.....

Frankfurt trading showing UP 4.33%...close 16.87 euros BID 17.40 euros..ASK 17.60

US ASK is $24.15

Should be a very good day for TSL once real bid & ask comes through...Although Futures are lower DOW <72>,S&P <11> Nasdaq <16>

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Nasdaq closed Down 1.28% on above average volume.....

All Indices closed weak on lousy consumers sentiment......

Volume in Dow & S&P 500 were below average BUT Nasdaq volume was above average.....

Dow was relatively better performer ...Down .97%

SO..we had 2 Down days so far ......

RSI in S&P 500 is @ 49.12

Internals were Negative by 2 to 1

AH STEC ER was bad in guidance Down 27.05% in AH volume of 3.06 million....

AH Futures are NOT looking good @ all.... Down <77> in DOW,<10> in S&P 500 & <17> in Nasdaq

AH Nikkei Down 1.83%

AH Oil UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Huge drop in consumers confidence hitting Indices....

Consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in 10 months.....consensus was 55 actual 46....last months was 56.5......this IS a shocking number.....

As US economy is the worlds biggest market..a drop in consumer stat like that is having ripple effect worldwide...European markets are also down close to 1.5%...

Currently US markets are down from .85% to 1.58%..Dow being the-best so far......

Gold Down $7.20 to $1105.40

Oil Down $1.00 to $79.31

Canadian $ Down 1.10 cent to 95.86

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TSL( reports before open expecting a beat).....

@ 12.33 following are GREEN :

GS,TLM,M,GAME,WYNN,CMED.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, February 22, 2010

Tiny pullback @ close on Lowest volume......

Indices barely took a breather on lowest volume in weeks....

Internals were neutral.....

AH Futures are mixed

AH Nikkei Down

AH Oil Down

VIX closed @ 19.94..Down 9 days in a row ????...52 wk low is 16.86

Strong stocks @ close included APWR,CREE,GOOG,BIDU,
JDSU,CIEN,MA,FUQI,BAC,OTEX,CAGC.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices slightly in negative......

After 4 days of gains,Indices are marking time before turning UP......

Gold Down $11.30

Oil Down 11 cents

Canadian $ Down 17 tick to 95.89 cents US for 1 CAD....

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TSL......

@ 12.22 following are green :

APWR,FUQI,CREE,GOOG,BIDU,MA,V,
GNK,TC,GS,FMCN,LVS,WYNN,M,VAR....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Message of the market IS.......

Last week we had many overhang for the markets as listed below :

-Greece

-US$ surging

-China 2nd increase in reserve requirements from Banks

-Fed raising of Discount rate

-Adami was SURE market is heading way LOWER

-Joe Terranova was buying VIX...betting on market going for a DIVE.....

-Dennis Gartman was shorting commodities.....betting on market collapse

GUESS .....what the market DID......we were open for 4 days only this week because of Presidents Day......

Markets were UP 4 days in a row......

VIX are down 8 days in a row.....

All Commodities surged......

All Indices are above 50 DMA......

Must be a very bad week for Adami,Terranova & Gartman...all their Talk & actions cost them a pretty BUNDLE......AGAIN ?????

SO.....where are we heading NOW ????

S&P 500 closed @ 1109.17

RSI in S&P 500 is 55.44

It is SAFE to see that TREND IS UP.......as we closed all 4 days near HIGHS of the day..a major technical SIGNAL of strength.......

My guess IS that...S&P 500 will take out 1150.45 HIGH easily......

RSI will race towards 70 area ...where profit needs to be booked.....

We are looking @ rangebound markets.....it will rotate between oversold & overbought many times until Q3...

YES...we SHOULD make a run towards 1200 in S&P 500....then another pullback IS in order....

For those who were waiting for "all clear"...here it is......BUT be quick when we hit targets as mentioned above.......

Here is my $/sector allocation as of Friday's close :

TSL 37.49% Solar fully integrated
PALM 17.14% Tech/Smartphone
APWR 16.40% AE/Wind Turbine
IAG 15.64% Gold Mining
SLW 13.33% Silver Reseller

I am highly concentrated in my picks.....BUT it should work out profitably......

Good luck in your OWN strategy..BUT stay DIVERSIFIED.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Buy rated stocks.....

Following stocks are "ready to turn UP".....Risk/Reward ratio is very compelling..either they are deeply oversold or have a very good potential to give better gains compared to market.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

PALM,APWR,IAG,SLW,TSL,MRVL,GNK,GOOG,
TLM,AGU,SOLF,SOHU,CCJ,GS,MA,ABX,AAPL,
SNDK,AMKR,FEED,SNDA,ZRAN,STLD,NXY,XRX.

Next post by noon on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, February 19, 2010

Remarkable GREEN close in Indices..NICE !!!!

Indices made in 4 in a row against all kinds of headwinds......

All Indices are above 50 DMA.....

Today all Indices had HIGHER volume.....

OH...what happened to Option Expiry FEAR ????

VIX closed @ 20.02 Down 2.96%....

In my portfolio :

Bought 15% more TSL @ $24.45..it is now 37.49% of my portfolio...

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TSL.....

By noon on Saturday.....I will list buy rated stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sold TC @ $13.56

Sold my entire position in TC for $13.56...to book profit......

Looking @ buying other stock before close....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Higher highs & all Indices above 50 DMA....NICE !!!!

Remember CNBC famous "major resistance of 1100 in S&P 500"....it sliced like a piece of cake and making "higher HIGHS"......it pays NOT to listen to "chickens with NO GUT or SPINE"

SO..what happened to disaster in markets with Fed discount hike ????

Dow,Nasdaq & S&P 500 all are ABOVE 50 DMA......

You need to have a strong backbone in this market...cannot JUMP with every news.....you need to KNOW the real meaning & its IMPACT in your portfolio.....

CSIQ warned about its margins on several front......all solar stocks are under pressure..also FSLR margins are coming down faster...FSLR Down $8+,CSIQ Down $3+....

Gold Down $3

Oil UP 62 cents

Canadian $ UP 3 tick @ 96.05 US for 1 CAD

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TC,TSL....

@ 12.27 following are green :

TC,SLW,IAG,MRVL,GNK,TCK,CREE,ISRG,IPI,
GS,MA,LVS,M,X,RCI,ECA,CTRN,ICE,CCJ,
WYNN,ABX.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Indices closed near HIGH of the day AGAIN.....NICE !!!!

For three days in a row indices resisted selling & went on to close near high of the day...TAPE is giving "clear signal"that it wants to go higher.......

Fed increased the discount rate to .75% from .50% and reduced the time on discount window to "overnight" instead of almost a month........

Based on RECENT months of activity of this facility there was hardly any "usage"..banks were NOT using this facility @ all ?????

SO...why all this NEGATIVE reaction to this non-usage...in Bill Clinton's words because I ( THEY) COULD......

Fed has been ARTICULATING for months that they are READY to take back MANY facilities which they had put in place to deal with "financial EMERGENCY"

Only 5 mt traders on Fast Money looked "Surprised & SHOCKED"....some are buying VIX like buying puts on market.......I say go ahead & do it ......

My take IS... that it is an EXPECTED move among many to come ...by the end of the day "markets SHOULD find footing"......as THESE are sign of economy becoming HEALTHIER..which IS good for markets.....

Nobody should invest for 1 day event..even for traders these "events should be factored IN"

AH DELL ER was bad as expected Down 5.88% on AH volume of 2.45 million shares....

AH Futures are DOWN.....DOW <67>,S&P 500 <10> Nasdaq <15> NOT a disaster as some traders would like to paint.....

AH Nikkei Down .69%

AH Oil Down 77 cents

AH Gold Down $12.10 to $1105.90.....

Many stocks were UP today.......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Green..S&P 500 @ 1100....NICE !!!!

Indices fought back weakness sparked by Jobless claims showing uptick.......BUT Leading Economic Indicator was UP 10 months in a row which gives hope for continued economic growth....

Gold Down $2.50...but gold & silver stocks are green......

Oil UP $1.01

Canadian $ flat @ 95.69 US for 1 CAD

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TC,TSL....

@ 12.23 following are green :

IAG,SLW,TC,TLM,ECA,SOHU,AAPL,RIMM,
CSIQ,CREE,RCI,GOOG,BIDU,V,GG,EXPE,
POT,AMZN,KGC,AEM,ABX,FSLR(AH ER).

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Indices closed near HIGH of the day AGAIN.....NICE !!!!

Strength of any market is determined by how we close....for two days in a row ....we closed near high of the day......

Guess what....This market is NOT afraid of Option Expiry...a rare phenomenon.....we have a very good chance of getting a "short SQUEEZE" by OE.......

AH PCLN was a beat & guide UP..AH stock is UP $13.47 near 52 wk high...

HPQ also was a guide UP & a beat UP .96%..also near 52 wk high...

AH Futures are Down a fraction

AH Nikkei is UP

AH Gold Down @ $1101

Solar stocks took a rest after running UP for several days.....

Strong stocks included SNDK,BAC,C,ABK,FNSR,NDN,
ISRG,CMED,PWRD,SINA,TC,APWR,GNK.......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

S&P 500 all set to take out 1100.......

1100 in S&P 500 is being touted as "major resistance"......I think NOT......

Indices are all green after minor selling .....

Economic news continues to be better than expected......

Housing data was ROBUST.......

Gold Down $4.60

Oil UP 30 cents

Canadian $ Down 10 tick to 95.70

In my portfolio :

Added 50% more TSL @ $25.63......

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TC,TSL.....

@ 12.25 following are GREEN :

TC,SLW,APWR,ECA,TCK,FUQI,CREE,SINA,PWRD,
ISRG,V,NDN,GG,FMCN,NTES,SNDA,CTRN,ABX,
FSLR,SNE,IBN.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Indices closed near high of the day....NICE !!!!!

Indices were strong based on economic data & improving traders sentiment after long weekend...all indices closed near high of the day......

Internals of the markets were strong as listed below :

UP volume led by 9.86 to 1 in NYSE & 5.93 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing issues led by 4.92 to 1 in NYSE & 2.55 to 1 in NASDAQ

New 52 wk highs were 107 in NYSE & 100 in Nasdaq.....

Overall a very healthy picture....

Volume was high in Nasdaq BUT was below average in NYSE & S&P 500....

VIX closed @ 22.25 Down 2.11%

Gold rocketed UP to $1119....

Oil was strong @ $77.42 area.....

On a "humorous note" Commodity King Dennis Gartman was short commodities.....which were all rocketing UP today ????

Also Guy Adami was missing from desk ?????

AH Futures are Green....

AH All Asian markets are UP....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

All Indices GREEN.....NICE !!!!

Markets are off to a strong start after testing support for many days......

All Indices are UP......

Gold UP $27.60 to $1117.10

Oil UP $3.06

Canadian $ UP 84 tick to 95.92 US for 1 CAD

In my portfolio :

Added 30% more PALM @ $10.18..average cost is $11.64

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TC,TSL....

Most stocks are UP $$$$$$

@ 12.24 following are RED :

PALM,RIMM,AA,MA,AMZN,PHM,CYOU,
RCI,CTRN....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, February 15, 2010

Worrying about market.......

Everyone sweats about where market is heading on an hourly basis......

Thanks to CNBC we are expected to sell everything every five minute and buy everything next day......IF you have been "religiously doing that"..I am sure you have run out of most of your equity & HATE stock market by now......

BUT....the question is ....WHY you have to be glued to CNBC?

I personally do NOT have CNBC in my TV lineup for over one year......

Do I miss anything from CNBC?

YES...all the FRUSTRATION & FRENZY of Buy & Sell every 5 mts......

SO...I do NOT miss CNBC for one second...as I am left alone to do my research & follow my plans for my portfolio.....PLUS my NERVES are CALM & AM composed........

Markets are going nowhere for many years now.......

S&P 500 is back where it was in Sep of 08 ..which means no gains in 17 months......

In October 2001..S&P 500 also was @ current level...means no gain in last 8+ years.......

NOW..you MAY wonder about the LOGIC of investing in markets ???

YES..it IS a good question to ponder.......?????

The real answer IS......INDEX do NOT make you money but good quality stocks DO.......

SO...do NOT get frustrated with S&P 500 "hyper-analysis" done almost hourly on CNBC....

S&P 500 may not be going anywhere..BUT many stocks are going sky high IF you show CONVICTION & monitor fundamentals closely.......

Have you monitored GOOG,AAPL,BIDU,FSLR,ISRG,RIMM.....as to how FAR they have moved UP while S&P 500 is going nowhere.....

Individual stocks is where FOCUS should be NOT on CNBC or S&P 500....I know for most CNBC is an ADDICTION and cannot live without it.....BUT one has to KNOW the HAZARD of being fixated with 5 mt trading concept which they PUSH every single day........

Most of the individual stocks I have listed have gone UP several 100% while S&P 500 has not moved in 8+ years.......????

That is where your OWN investing/trading rules needs to come in play.......

There is NO right or WRONG way to invest/trade...you CAN do monthly contribution to your ideas or trade with any system in place like technicals.... be it RSI,BB,MACD,STOCHASTICS,Put/Call ratio or MA........BUT stick to one or a COMBINATION of indicators......

I can ASSURE you ..no matter what system you come up with...it will be severely challenged by market & will test your own CONVICTION.......BUT staying the course will be far more beneficial than following CNBC or REACTING to every NEWS?????

SO..I stay the course for the most part ..just TINKER my exposure based on NOISE.....

Here is my $/ sector allocation as of Friday close :

TSL 23.11%..Solar fully Integrated
IAG 16.57%...Gold Mining
APWR 16.23%..AE/Wind Turbine
PALM 15.38%..Tech/Smartphone
TC 14.75%...Molybdenum Mining
SLW 13.96%..Silver Reseller

As..you can see..that i am not in sexy names ....sometimes boring is better...based on market conditions.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Buy rated stocks.....

Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

TSL,IAG,APWR,PALM,SLW,TC,RCI,RVBD,KBH,
RT,DECK,PLA,FCS,LEN.B,CY,INCY,JDSU,NVDA,
MRVL,PIR,FMCN,IPI,GOOG.

Next post by noon on Monday..re market analysis.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, February 12, 2010

Nasdaq closed Green on Higher volume...NICE !!!

Smart traders sold stocks pre-market & right after open.......only to find out quickly that they are NOT so smart after all.......

Nasdaq closed green on high volume & internals on Nasdaq was impressive as follows :

Advancing stocks led by 15 to 10

UP volume led by 43 to 26

Even NYSE had a high volume day & Advancing stocks led by 16 to 13

VIX closed @ 22.73 Down 5.13%

Gold staged a comeback also closing @ close to $1090 area.....

All in all a very "constructive day in markets"

Markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day in US & Canada is also closed for "family Day"...

Next post of buy rated stocks will be @ noon on Sunday.....

Enjoy "valentines day with significant other in your life"

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Panic selling on China tightening a BIG mistake !!!!

Chinese are increasing bank reserve to control "hyper GROWTH"......

Same message was given by Ben Bernanke to keep inflation in check in US.....

Different economy different problems being dealt by the central banks.......

European growth was touch lower than expected......

Our dedicated 5 mt traders jumped ship immediately......they are NOT looking good by mid-day as most stocks have recovered.....

Gold Down $6.20

Oil Down 1.51

Canadian $ Down 19 tick

In my portfolio :

Added 30% more PALM @ $9.97

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TC,TSL......

@ 12.02 folllowing are Green :

PALM,TSL,SLW,MRVL,AAPL,RIMM,CSIQ,SOL,
CREE,NTES,NDN,NVDA,RVBD,X,POT,
FMCN,LULU,FSLR....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, February 11, 2010

1%+- Gain @ close.....NICE !!!!

Indices staged a comeback Again to reclaim 10,100 area in Dow by closing @ 10,144.19.....

Nasdaq was the strongest by closing UP 1.38%...

Internals were very strong...indicating serious interest in stocks.....

Gold zoomed UP to close @ $1094.20......

Oil also strong closing @ $75 + area

Canadian $ gained more than 1 full cent against US$ closing @ 95.13 US for 1 CAD....

Commodities,Ag,Techs,Gold,Silver,Solar..participated in this rally.

AH Futures are Down

AH Nikkei UP

AH Hang Seng Down

AH Shanghai UP

VIX closed @ 23.96 Down 5.67%......

CNBC pundits as usual.... changed their tune & going with the FLOW by talking long trades ????

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP from .69% to 1.22%....NICE !!!!!

Indices were subjected to selling pressure @ open while all news were positive......

Greece issue was resolved by EU.....

Jobless claims were lower than expected......

BUT..Hedge Funds were able to manipulate this market LOWER ?????

SO..we had FOUR days of "tinkering with TAPE" by HF & their partners???

Gold UP $18.80

Oil UP 93 cents

Canadian $ UP 1 full cent to 95.08 US for 1 CAD...highest level in weeks

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TC,TSL.....

Most stocks are UP $$$$$

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Indices closed slightly lower......

After 5 mt trader bailed out on Ben Bernanke statement about removing stimulus..market found NO real reason to show weakness.......

BB gave a clear plan to tighten interest rate....which market was looking for...

Greece is almost a "done deal" by Germany & France.....which market was looking for a resolution.....

Volume was light...thanks to major snowstorm in East coast......

Market internals were neutral to positive......

Major standout today were BIDU,AGU,MA,CIEN,FNSR.......

JASO reports before open..expect a BEAT & guide UP...which should propel Solar stocks....

AH SWIR ER was a bust..Down 15.82%.....

AH Futures are mixed

AH NIKKEI & Singapore UP

AH Oil UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sell first.... think later crowd @ it again????

Ben Bernanke statement is extremely positive for US economy......why would BB think of removing stimulus @ the right time? because he can clearly see that US economy is off the "Intensive care".....

BUT our 5 minutes traders PANICKED as usual and sold first and WATCH how low the market will go......

Technically..... we are above LOWS for 3 days in a row....no matter how many hedge funds are in PANIC mode.......

Currently Indices are down from .04% to .10%.....nothing to PANIC about.....PATIENCE is important in this JITTERY market.......

Gold Down $5.70..well off lows

Oil Down 2 cent..well off lows

Canadian $ UP 4 tick

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TC,TSL......

@ 12.22 following are GREEN :

APWR,TSL,PALM,TC,SLW,IAG,BIDU,GS,RIMM,AGU,
RCI,BRCD,CTRN,CCJ,JRCC,IGT,MA,AEM,
NYX,LDK,FWLT,V,NVDA...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Indices closed higher on high volume...NICE !!!!

Indices were ready to snapback despite ongoing headlines about debt issues in Europe...Futures were UP and we opened HIGHER on no new news......then traders on the KNOW started bidding this market UP on rumour of German bailout of Greece debt.......

Despite statement of denial by German minister..BUT some KNEW better & indices closed higher on HIGH volume...sometimes RUMOUR is more REAL than DENIAL......

Internals of market were healthy as listed below :

Advancing stocks led decliners by 29 to 8 in NYSE & 19 to 7 in Nasdaq

UP volume led by minimum of 70% to Down volume of about 30% of total in both exchange

A very ROBUST picture.......

AH BIDU ER was a beat & Guide UP...stock UP $38.57 to new 52 wk HIGH on AH volume
of 833K....

AH Futures are Green

AH Nikkei is UP 1.04%

AH Gold UP

AH Oil Down

Gold & Silver had a strong day

Commodities were strong today

Most sectors enjoyed strong close....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Almost 2% move UP in all Indices......

Sentiment improved in Wall Street after Germany helping Greece in its financial need......

Greece was becoming a major hangover for markets.....

Gold UP $7.30

Oil UP 43 cents

Canadian $ UP 63 tick to 93.70 US for 1 CAD

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TC,TSL.....

Most stocks are UP....

Following are RED @ 12.30 :

PALM,BRCD,MA,BIDU ( ER AH),GAME.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, February 8, 2010

Low volume selling today......

All Indices closed in RED......

Volume was lower than average and way lower than Friday......

Today felt like RETEST of support for Indices......

As long as we do NOT go lower than 1044 area in S&P 500...then we have seen lows for this correction...

There is lot of FEAR being injected with Monday "mechanized/computerized selling"

There was NO real news for selling to continue today????

RSI of 34.27 in S&P 500 is "deep oversold condition"

Selling looks EXHAUSTED.....

VIX closed @ 26.51 UP 1.53%....low volume selling was OBVIOUS to VIX traders ...so NO spike in FEAR index...which bodes well for "turnaround Tuesday"

AH Futures are GREEN.....

AH Nikkei Down .39%

AH Oil Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Nasdaq & S&P 500 green.....NICE !!!!

Markets are trying to stage a comeback with Dow flirting with +-...while S&P 500 & Nasdaq showing Green......

VIX @ 25.59 Down 1.99%....showing FEAR going away......

Gold UP $16.70..but gold stocks are following Dow & are Down

Oil UP 80 cents

Canadian $ UP 10 tick to 93.53 US for 1 CAD

In my portfolio :

Added 15% more TSL @ $23.50...it is 24.5% of my portfolio

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TC,TSL.....

@ 12.09 following are green :

TSL,MRVL,FUQI,SOL,AAPL,SOHU,GNK,POT,ASIA,
CREE,SINA,NTES,SNDA,LULU,IGT,WYNN,MA,
CMED,ISRG,IBN,TLM,PWRD,AA,RCI,GOOG,V,
NDN,RVBD,EXPE,AMZN.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Correction FINALLY over .......

Last time we had a meaningful correction was in October, before that it was July & now the mother of all correction which started in 3rd week of January ended 1st week of February ???....

SO..based on recent correction history we are getting serious correction every 3rd month....

The reason of every correction is the same "overbought conditions becomes oversold" BUT media will TRY to give you that something REALLY CHANGED.....

This correction took Nasdaq down 9.72% & S&P 500 9.21% while Dow 8.34%.......that is a classic correction of almost 10%........

As US market is dominated by Hedge Funds & Institutions...they are all working with
pre-programmed "computer models" which triggers based on technicals........

Many Quant Funds are either net short or net long based on their super-computers triggers.......

The only thing us mortals can do is try to understand "time sequence" & "technical range"

SO..we do know that TIMING of correction is every 3rd month ...TECHNICALS are RSI in S&P 500 is telling us that the selling is being "triggered" near 68 area intraday......

SO..be extra careful when we hit 65 area in 14 day RSI.......

Exposure needs to be reduced when we are hitting 65 RSI....booking of profit is "highly recommended" near 65 level..........

YES...it IS easier said than done..even for ME......

Market TAPE.... brings GREED very quickly and one gets mesmerized by stocks going UP......

I personally felt that once i booked profit in Solar stocks..I should be OK with Gold,Silver,Ag,Metals,Software stocks ..which were ALL weaker than last correction........

BUT..I was WRONG in my conclusion...everything TANKED as IF they have made new HIGHS...actually they went BELOW previous LOWS......

Near bottom of any correction it is IMPORTANT to quickly REGROUP.....based on how OVERSOLD certain stocks are OR which stock has the POTENTIAL of recovering FASTER......

This requires updated analysis of fundamentals & technicals....plus your OWN gut feel about stock as to its POTENTIAL.......

Having too MANY stocks...creates more losses & harder to follow its fundamentals which keeps CHANGING with market PREFERENCES.......

Sector FOCUS are NEVER constant in market....so pay attention to where the MONEY is going.....see which stocks are BUCKING the TREND..going DOWN less or going UP more.....

Sometimes it IS important to see IF some stocks are NOT making new recent LOWS..while market IS.......

YES..there is LOT to analyze during the trading hours..BUT TAPE gives you a better READ......

YES...market is ready to move UP.......

YES..strong stocks needs to be in your portfolio..skip BARGAIN.....

YES..it is OK to have one SPECULATIVE stock in your portfolio but NO more.....APWR is my spec play.....lousy on technicals but have great fundamentals/future for 2010/2011

Here is my portfolio with $ allocation & sectors as of Friday :

TSL 21.92% Solar fully integrated
APWR 17.65% Wind Turbine
IAG 17.38% Gold Mining
TC 14.89% Molybdenum Mining
SLW 14.53% Silver Reseller
PALM 13.63% Tech/Smartphone

As you can see that I am diversified with heavy weighting in most stocks..Mining & Solar still my favourite sector.....

Good luck in your OWN comfort level with your exposure....NOT everyone is comfortable near LOWS...which is OK......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Stocks ready to move UP.......

Following stocks are looking good IF market shows strength.....Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

TSL,CSIQ,TC,SLW,IAG,AUY,BIDU,GOOG,AAPL,RIMM,
AEM,IBN,ISRG,CREE,SOHU,PWRD,GS,GG,MRVL,BRCM,
NVDA,VMW,FCX,AGU,IPI.

Again.... we have the opportunity to go with strong stocks which were battered by this correction in a diversified manner.

Next post by noon Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, February 5, 2010

V shape snapback in Indices...NICE !!!!

Last 90 minutes saw a complete reversal in all indices erasing all losses & closing green in all index......

Reversal was on extremely high volume.....

VIX went to 29.22 then closed @ 26.11.....

Internals were on the healthy side.....

Lot of reasons were "trumpeted for this slide" BUT the reality of turnaround was very clear....RSI went to extreme oversold conditions..so a snap back was clearly evident......

This IS wall street old game ...take it UP & bring it DOWN @ will.........

By noon Saturday..I will list buy rated stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Job data lower than expected putting pressure in Indices...

Job data was a downer....job loss of 20K instead of job gain of 15K...

Selling is getting tired......

S&P 500 has support in 1050 area...

Nasdaq flirting with GREEN & MAY pull other Indices UP....

I am expecting short covering near close.....

Gold Down $12.40 to $1050

Oil Down $2.35 to $70.79

Canadian $ Down 4 tick to 93.29 US for 1 CAD

Portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TC,TSL.....

@ 12.41 following are green :

TSL,TC,CSIQ,AAPL,CREE,AGU,BIDU,GOOG,
GS,NDN,GG,RVBD,AMZN,AUY,ABX,RIMM,LDK,
ICE,NDAQ,AEM.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, February 4, 2010

FEAR gripping markets......

FEAR is the driving force in today's rout......

Nasdaq is down 8.4% from High

S&P 500 is Down 7.56% from High

RSI is 34.01 & 35.26...close to Friday's low NOT lower.....

Correction is defined as Down 10% & some hedge funds MAY be shooting for that...whether they get their objective will depend on Jobs report....which I expect to be POSITIVE for the economy & markets.......consensus is Job growth of 15,000..I am expecting it to be stronger than that....

Even with better Jobs report ...Hedge Funds are quite capable of "sell the news"......BUT I do NOT believe they will do that..... as they have ENOUGH money made on the short side OR bought enough cheap shares....

SO...how do you position in this emotional market.......

BY "monitoring your OWN comfort level" this can be defined by your "time horizon" OR "exposure"......IF your time horizon is long term...then this is all NOISE.....BUT IF you are a short term trader..you must adjust to this NEW REALITY of "weak technicals"

I have adjusted by REDUCING my exposure by selling SOLF & AUY today......

My portfolio is APWR,IAG,PALM,SLW,TC,TSL......

CNBC as usual is "playing the FEAR factor to the hilt" to boost ratings....so you have to FILTER all that NOISE.....

Talking of fear factor VIX jumped by 20.74% in ONE day to close @ 26.08.....getting close to its recent high in $28 area.....could VIX be OVERBOUGHT and signalling a major turn UP in markets????

AH Asian markets are catching up to Wall Street close..they are currently Down from 1.82% to 2.83% less than S&P 500 drubbing of 3.11%......

AH Futures are all GREEN......someone knows about Jobs report????

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Retest of support as "fear mounts".......

Fear of European sovereign bonds & higher than expected jobless claims taking a "major hit in all indices"....

S&P 500 went below recent lows as we hit 1069.71 low so far...previous low was 1071.59...currently we are trading @ 1072.21......

RSI in S&P 500 is currently @ 37.17...higher than Friday's low......

Gold Down sharply $44.40 to 1067..still in support zone

Oil Down $3.87 to $73.11

Canadian $ down 1.31 cents to 93.19 US for 1 CAD......

Portfolio is APWR,AUY,IAG,PALM,SLW,SOLF,TC,TSL....

Most stocks are down......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Minor pullback @ close in light volume....

Nasdaq bucked the trend by closing green......

Dow & S&P 500 were in minor red after two days of gain......

Internals were much weaker than what indices closed @ as listed below :

NYSE declining stocks led by 18 to 11

Nasdaq declining stocks led by 15 to 10

Down volume led by 2.91 to 1 in NYSE & 1.04 to 1 in Nasdaq...

VIX closed @ 21.60 UP .56%......

AH Futures are GREEN

AH Nikkei Down

AH Gold & Oil Down

AH CSCO gave a very bullish commentary about their business in their ER which was a healthy BEAT ...stock UP 3.55% on AH volume of 4.74 million

AH OTEX ER was a beat Stock UP 6.04%....

AH WFR ER was greeted with selling...Down 4.62%

V reports AH Thursday...should be a beat

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Minor pullback after two days of gain......

Indices are slightly red after two days of robust gains......

Gold Down $6

Oil Down 19 cents

Canadian $ Down 8 tick to 94.29 US for 1 CAD

In my portfolio :

Added 80% more TC @ $12.41

Portfolio is APWR,AUY,IAG,PALM,SLW,SOLF,TC,TSL...

@12.31 following are green :

TSL,AAPL,RIMM,POT,AGU,IPI,SOHU,CREE,
STP,NTES,GOOG,BIDU,GS,CSIQ,MRVL,SNDA,
ICE,JRCC,NDAQ,FSLR.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Indices closed @ high of the day on high volume...

Indices showed technical strength by closing @ high of the day on higher volume....

Gold continued its rebound by jumping another $14 to $1117 area...

Oil also continued it runup to $76.91 AH

AH Futures are RED

AH Nikkei & Hang Seng UP

AH Shanghai Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

VIX closed @ 21.48 Down 4.91%

AH CTRP ER was greeted with selling Down 5.45%

AH SOLR ER was greeted with enthusiasm UP AH 8.33% on AH volume of 499,516.....should give a boost to Solar stocks.....

Most stocks participated in today's rally which is healthy......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

2nd day of gain in Indices.....NICE !!!!

Markets are showing strength for 2nd day in a row which is technically significant.

There was mild selling pressure before housing data BUT housing data was better than expected....economic news continues to be better which negates bear thesis going forward....

Gold UP $10.90 to $1115.20

Oil UP $1.96 to $76.37

Canadian $ UP 35 tick to 94.29 US for 1 CAD

In my portfolio :

Added 50% TSL @ $23.24

Portfolio is APWR,AUY,IAG,PALM(upgraded $20 target),SLW,
SOLF,TC,TSL.....

Most stocks are UP.....

@ 12.21 following are RED :

AMZN,LVS,SU,BIDU,GOOG,RCI,PWRD,TC,CREE,
TKC,JRCC,WYNN,SPWRA,FSLR,IBN.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, February 1, 2010

All Indices closed near HIGHS....NICE !!!!

All indices made a decent comeback by closing near HIGHS......

Nasdaq volume was above average......

Gold jumped $23......to close above $1100.....

Oil jumped to $75.08 AH....

AH Futures are flat.....

AH all Asian markets are UP 1% to 2%

VIX closed @ 22.59 Down 8.25%

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Green after sharp selloff......

Indices are staging a technical rebound from an "extremely oversold" condition......

Economic news continues to be ROBUST which is accounting for some enthusiasm for equities today.....

We may build from here until we get overbought again......

This will be a rangebound market until Q2 ER...which will be a start of high growth Q3.....

Gold UP $13.50

Oil UP $1.06

Canadian $ UP 30 tick to 93.96 US for 1 CAD....

Portfolio is APWR,AUY,IAG,PALM,SLW,SOLF,TC,TSL......

Most stocks are UP...

@ 12.39 following are RED :

AMZN,SOHU,GNK,M,ISRG,STP,CAAS,FMCN,SNDA,
BRCD,CTRN,VAR......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem