Sunday, May 30, 2010

MAY is telling us more than what we were ready for....

MAY is signalling a crisis that nobody predicted......thus we have a MAY stock market which was never seen since 1940....we were down 8.20% in S&P 500 in MAY alone....from high of the year ..we are down 10.69% when May ended......

Technically.... only Nasdaq is healthy & is above 200 DMA.....while Dow & S&P 500 struggles below 200 DMA.....

RSI in S&P 500 is a touch healthy @ 40.09......

In trying to analyze market behaviour which has been pretty poor...following scenario COULD be taking place :

-Worldwide economic growth rate COULD be "below expectations".....

-Worldwide economic growth rate COULD be "well below expectations"....

Based on how jittery the markets ARE..it is SAFE to expect "well below scenario"

IF we go with worldwide economic growth being well below expectations scenario...then market will struggle with 200 DMA..which it has been...

The strategy for traders is to reduce exposure & book profit frequently......

Long term investors CAN buy strong stocks & stay invested.......

BUT... IF 1040 in S&P 500 HOLDS...then we ARE looking @ "double bottom".....which means a very aggressive posture be taken by traders.......

Markets COULD be discounting slower GDP growth than the Euphoria of early 2010......

MAY has certainly given all of us another look @ economic picture as articulated by markets...message of the market has been pretty clear...."all is NOT well in Euroland"

I am maintaining a "semi-aggressive" exposure of 50% in my portfolio..as I get more CONFIDENT near lows......

I am also pruning stocks which are showing "relative weakness" & trading strong stocks.....booking profit needs to be the motto in these volatile & unpredictable market.....

Here is my $/sector allocation as of Friday :

NVDA 21.11% Tech/Graphics
JDSU 20.79% Tech/Fibre Optics
CRUS 20.70% Tech/Chips
LVS 19.46% Casino Operator
TCK 17.94% Copper/Coal/Zinc

As you can see that I have a diversified approach even in my "swing trading" strategy.....

Money CAN be made in any kind of markets...provided you understand & strategize for the current environment.....Instead of predicting markets,one must accept markets the way they ARE......

Good luck in your strategy.

World markets are open on Monday including Canada.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Buy rated stocks.....

Following stocks are flashing buy signal based on technical strength.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

LVS,CRUS,JDSU,NVDA,TCK,SNDK,BIDU,CREE,
SEED,SONS,NVLS,BRCM,MIPS,CUTR,ELOS,
LCRD,WSTL,NCTY,SNCR,ZARLF,AAPL.

Next post by noon on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, May 28, 2010

1.24% pulback in S&P 500......

Markets are showing usual jitters near lows...S&P 500 was the weakest & closed down 1.24%....

Spain was the reason of the day...which was known to the markets......

Internals were weak......

Green stocks included AAPL,M,NDN,CNQ,SOL,STP,FUQI,OVTI....

By Saturday noon, I will list buy rated stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Enjoy your Memorial day long weekend with friends & family.

Saleem

.49% to .63% pullback in Indices ahead of long weekend...

Indices are retracing about .50% after a major run yesterday.....more a reflection of long weekend.....

Mixed market in Europe with DAX still green....

Euro Stable @ 1.2369

Gold Down $7.00

Oil Down 3 cents

Canadian $ Down 6 tick to 95.25

In my portfolio :

Sold CIEN

Bought LVS @ $23.50

Doubled my position in NVDA @ $13.33

Portfolio is CRUS,JDSU,LVS,NVDA,TCK....

@ 12.26 following are green :

JDSU,CNQ,CCJ,AAPL,OVTI,NDN,CNQ,M,
PIR,ECA,SINA,CTRN,LULU,FUQI,VLO,
VAR.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Strong close in all Indices......NICE !!!

All indices closed near best level of the day......

There was tremendous amount of buying in all indices....

Internals were the strongest i have seen in months....

Volume was average.....

New 52 wk highs were in the lead again....

Strong stocks which were UP 5% or more included
LVS,TCK,JDSU,NVDA,SNDK,CNQ,ASIA,WDC,IBN,TC,CREE,IPI,POT,
AGU,X,SOLF,TSL,AMCC, FNSR,STP,JASO,SOL,BIDU......

AH OVTI ER was a beat & is guiding much higher than consensus..stock UP 9.39% in AH volume of 259,994 shares

AH Futures are mixed

AH Nikkei UP

AH Oil UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Nasdaq jumped above 200 DMA....NICE !!!!

Nasdaq is leading the pack by jumping above 200 DMA...first indices to do today...others still below 200 DMA.....

China ,Kuwait declared "no intention of backing out of Euro debt"...thus giving boost to Euro which is UP 2.04 to 1.2365 giving boost to stock markets worldwide.....

Gold UP 90 cents

Oil UP 2.73

Canadian $ UP 1.46 cents to 95.00

In my portfolio :

Sold EGO

Sold LVS

Bought NVDA @ $13.07

Bought CRUS @ $14.30

Bought TCK @ $34.69

Portfolio is CIEN,CRUS,JDSU,NVDA,TCK.....

Most stocks are UP

VIX down 13.59% to 30.26

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Indices rolled over to close near lows.......

TAPE was certainly discouraging BUT it is NOT the end of the world.....

Near lows markets are generally jittery & backtracks.....

Internals of the market was positive.....

Euro weakness was the only negative for the market..currently @ 1.2162

In my portfolio :

Sold CRUS

SOLD SNDK

Bought LVS @ $21.75

Bought EGO @ $16.57

Portfolio is EGO,CIEN,JDSU,LVS......

Green stocks included CRUS,SNDK,LVS,ASIA,
SOHU,CREE,NDN,V,CNQ,SOLF,SOL....

AH Futures are RED

AH Gold Down

AH Oil Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

UP .75% to 1.23% in Indices....NICE !!!!!

Indices are staging their first green day after erasing all/most of their huge loss yesterday....Indices UP from .75% to 1.23%..Nasdaq being the strongest

Euro is weak today down 1.52 to 1.2220.....

Gold UP $13.20

Oil UP $1.97

Canadian $ UP 52 tick to 93.92

Portfolio is CIEN,CRUS,JDSU,SNDK.....

SNDK jumped to 52 wk high today in heavy volume of almost 11 million shares so far.....

VIX down 8.99% to 31.50

Most stocks are UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Major reversal on high volume...NICE !!!!

Indices went below two notches from flash crash & reversed on high volume...S&P 500 closed green.....

Supercomputers could tell no more retail $ are coming to their kitty as per their model.. thus reversed?

VIX closed Down 9.68% to 34.61

Green stocks included SNDK,CIEN,BCSI,GS,ISRG,
CCJ,LVS,NVDA,M,AMZN,X,AKS,AUY,GG,EGO,
FNSR,TCK,CNQ,MS.

AH Futures are UP

AH Nikkei UP

AH Gold UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

2% slump in Indices.....

Indices are slumping 2% after being down much more......

Reason given is Europe BUT Euro has NOT made a fresh low yet.....???

VIX only up 5%....to 40.27 went as high as 43.74..BUT made NO new high....???

The above stat are telling me that "machines are in control" us mortals are NOT buying the PANIC.....

S&P 500 @ low of 1040.78 was down 14.68% from highs of 2010......RSI was @ 29.69....made a "triple bottom"....

I personally believe that machines are having their "last hurrah" on the downside for this TAPE........will NOT be surprised @ a "major REVERSAL" today.....Risk/reward ratio is very compelling......stock selection is the key !!!!

Gold UP $4.20

Oil Down $1.92

Canadian $ Down 1.61 cents to 92.65

Portfolio is CIEN,CRUS,JDSU,SNDK.......

Most stocks are down except inverse ETF & Vix related.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, May 24, 2010

Close does NOT look good technically speaking......

Close today does NOT look good technically speaking.....

Today ..there was no follow thru on Friday's rally.....

Dow has the lowest close for 2010....

Internals were taking a beating again as listed below :

Down volume led by 3.12 to 1 in NYSE & 2.82 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.61 to 1 in NYSE & 1.85 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk low led on both NYSE & Nasdaq.....

Only saving grace is today's much lower volume......

It looks like we MAY do another RETEST of support in major indices......

Green stocks included CRUS,SNDK,AAPL,GOOG,RVBD,ASIA,SOHU,
AGU,EGO,SLW,IAG,AMCC.....

AH Futures are Down.....

AH Gold Down....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Strong stocks defying negativity.....

Indices are mixed with Nasdaq in the green.....

Gold UP $11.70

Oil UP 43 cents

Canadian $ UP 10 tick to 94.48

In my portfolio :

Tripled my position in CRUS @ $13.16

Portfolio is CIEN,CRUS,JDSU,SNDK....

@ 12.40 following are green :

CIEN,CRUS,JDSU,SNDK,GOOG,AAPL,
RVBD,EGO,SOHU,BIDU,V,LVS,AMZN,
AGU,SLW,GG,SINA,CTRN,ICE,LULU,
AEM,GAME,VAR....

Canadian Markets are closed today for national holiday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, May 23, 2010

S&P 500 back @ Sep 2001 level ????

IF you look @ S&P 500 performance....it is back @ Sep 2001 level @ Friday's close...so for almost nine years your investing $ has NOT done anything......

This is what Hedge funds & supercomputers love about US stock markets...their Algorithms does NOT care about any level in major indices...they CAN/DO pierce as per their model....SO Flash crash of few Thursday's ago was NO accident.....SEC incompetence or is it their COLLUSION is more than OBVIOUS......

GREED on Wall Street THRIVES.....SO computers rules while SEC looks the other way......

SO..based on all of the ABOVE REALITY...how does one SURVIVES or THRIVES in this RIGGED US markets.......?????

Some of the things..which i have observed & done is listed as follows :

-Become knowledgeable in some key technical metrics like RSI......use it with conviction.....
-Know your stocks well in terms of FA/TA/TAPE....
-Must be QUICK to adapt to new reality..both UP & Down..means sell with any surprise or buy on positives.....
-When markets are JITTERY reduce exposure in a hurry....
-Lock profits when TAPE turns....no matter what the markets are doing...
-Correction IS a reality always be ready for it ......correction maybe in the range of 5% to 15%...
-Understand that ....Wall Street will influence media to achieve their targets both UP & Down....

SO IF S&P 500 was DUD in last 9 years ...then what worked????

You will be surprised to find that IF you buy & HOLD good stocks...all the media manipulation would FAIL......& you will come out AHEAD......REALLY !!!!!

Given below are few example of BUY & HOLD which has been DECLARED DEAD by CNBC & GURU Gary Kaminsky & all the Fast Money gang ....or NOT !!!

Since Sep 2001 ..when S&P 500 returned ZERO..Following BUY & HOLD did AMAZING in the same time period :

AAPL was $7.76 currently $242.32..return of 30.23 times the money invested
MCD was $27.14 currently $67.86..return of 1.50 times the money invested
HPQ was $16.05 currently $46.58..return of 1.90 times the money invested
BIDU Oct 2005 was $6.94 currently $70.85 return of 9.21 times the money invested

SO...there are statistics & there are "damn lies" which is pushed by CNBC.....

SO...as RSI is @ 34.90 which is OVERSOLD conditions...can you pick 4 stocks which will give you the returns of the above sample.......I am sure you CAN.......

It is important NOT to stay FIXATED on CNBC for answers...they ARE after your money with shameless collusion with hedge funds agenda......

I do not have CNBC for last 17 months...only go to Internet for Fast money & Mad money around 9 PM to see what they are "harping ON"......

VIX went to 48.20 as intraday high.....which IS the same level as Asian contagion & Russian Ruble crisis..which was played up to the hilt by hedge funds & CNBC....& that was the buying opportunity of a lifetime.......

ARE we presented with another buying opportunity of a lifetime????

I firmly believe so......

Good luck on your OWN interpretation of hedge funds,CNBC & US markets.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, May 22, 2010

Buy rated stocks....

Following stocks are ready to move UP after recent selling.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

SNDK,CIEN,CRUS,JDSU,CREE,AAPL,NVDA,
IBN,RVBD,BIDU,GS,MA,V,NVDA,LVS,MRVL,
X,AMZN,TER,GNK,FMCN,BAC,C,TCK,STP......

Next post by noon on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, May 21, 2010

Indices closed near High Of The Day....NICE !!!

Indices closed near high of the day on high volume......

Internals of the market were much more stronger than close as listed below :

UP volume led by 9.26 to 1 in NYSE & 3.01 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 3.15 to 1 in NYSE & 1.82 to 1

Not bad when so many children on Fast Money are shouting @ each other & not making sense...some of them are not sure if they will have as many dinners in the next 12 months as they are claiming they will have less money to spend.....Brian Kelly needs medicine to keep him under control ???

Today was a great reversal in the markets as was clear to me last night....

By noon on Saturday, i will list buy rated stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

What goes Down..MUST come UP......

CNBC pundits were very wrong in saying that "we will NOT go UP for months"...Guru Gary Kaminsky....

Guru Jimmy the Cramer predicted another 1000 point drop in Dow....

I wish they do not go on CNBC & PRETEND to KNOW more than ANYBODY......

Market always TURNS when everybody is so SURE that it cannot......

This was a FEAR based ROUT..which had to end...... IF you must know how bad it was...S&P 500 was Down 13.44% High 1219.80 low 1055.90 & Nasdaq Down 14.57% high 2535.28 low 2165.79.........

Indices are UP 1%+ so far.....

Gold Down $10.80 to $1177

Oil Down 8 cents to $70.78

Canadian $ UP 91 tick to 94.64

VIX Down 14.78% to 39.02

In my portfolio :

Bought CRUS @ $12.70

Portfolio is CIEN,CRUS,JDSU,SNDK

Most stocks are UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Almost 4% slump in Indices..closing @ lows of the day on High volume...

Indices were in a freefall to the tune of almost 4%...volume was high & internals were terrible...new 52 wk lows were in the lead.......

CNBC as expected is trying to "fan the fire" @ this stage which makes no sense.....

Based on many technical readings & sentiments we are deeply oversold.....

Only 19.9% of trading public is bullish..lowest reading in last two years.....means 80.1% are bearish....sign of an imminent major turnaround....a very reliable contrary indicator....

RSI in S&P 500 is hitting recent lows again @ 29.81

All Indices closed @ lows of the day......

It is an important juncture to be in select stronger stocks where future earnings & sales are going to expand.....

Europeans are NOT going to stop buying computers or smartphones..Internet will continue to explode everywhere..yes even in Greece & Spain.........

SO..it is important to stay "rational" in an "irrational markets"

YES..hedge funds & supercomputers CAN bring this market down.....BUT for how long ????

Shorts need to cover...a reality of Wall Street......

AH BRCD,CRM & DELL reported and they all lacked something to excite any trader...so down they went from 5% to 9%......

I sold BRCD......

Portfolio is CIEN,JDSU,SNDK.......

AH Futures are UP

AH Asian markets are Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

AH Euro still going UP to 1.2560..highest level in few days ?????

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

This is NOT a correction..BUT panic about Europe...

Indices are tanking based on Fear about Europe & its impact on world economy......

S&P 500 went to 1076.32 ABOVE 1065.79 which was FLASH LOW.....

Currently S&P 500 is @ 1089.24.....

200 DMA is 1102.55

RSI is 32.11

All these are PANIC numbers NOT a normal correction..which is much more orderly & short lived.....

Even German Finance minister is saying that "markets are out of control" & needs to be regulated.....

Gold Down 2.60 cents

Oil Down $2.42

VIX UP 18.86% to 41.98..went to 45.21 today a new 52 wk HIGH.....

Canadian $ has slumped 1.97 cents to 93.83

Portfolio is BRCD,CIEN,JDSU,SNDK.....

BRCD reports AH..expecting a beat....

Most stocks are Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Indices retraced most of the losses by close.....

Selling is looking very tired & exhausted..so by close indices erased most of the losses..still a negative close.......again last hour of trading..... buyers were incharge..which is a good sign.....

Gold below $1200 & down sharply is a good indicator that fear trade is subsiding.....

Fast Money crowd "dire predictions" from previous night did NOT pan out..Adami, the frontman of doomsayers was confident of 950 in S&P 500...but today, instead of saying ..i was wrong..he is hopeful......hope nobody sold based on his ONGOING hysteria mongering.....

This has been a "tough market" for everybody as new issues keep affecting markets worldwide...

AH NTES ER was a miss by 10 cents on EPS...stock down AH $1.96....getting close to 52 wk low....

AH Futures are Down

AH Nikkei Down..even though Japanese GDP grew strongly..

Oil & Gold UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down again.....NO reason given.....????

Hedge funds are in total control of markets......There is no apparent reason for today's weakness...only reason is "because they COULD"....

Euro UP @ 1.2327

Oil Down 77 cents @ $68.64

Gold Down $22.70 to $1191.90

Canadian $ Down 1.02 cent to 95.32

Portfolio is BRCD,CIEN,JDSU,SNDK.....

S&P 500 went to as low as 1100.66..which is slightly ABOVE last low of 1095 area...RSI is @ 36.02......

Most stocks are Down....

VIX UP 8.85% to 36.52....

Margin calls are taking a toll in most stocks...wholesale liquidation to raise cash .....by 3 PM it should be completed......

Feels like a V turn is imminent.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Indices closed near lows of the day......

All Indices closed near lows of the day...volume was above average like yesterday.

Reasons for today's weakness are few....First Euro closed @ new 4 year low below 1.22....Second Germany banned naked shorting as of midnight tonight.....in US it is still allowed.....

Nasdaq was the weakest with 1.57% decline....

Internals of the markets were weak as listed below :

Down Volume led by 8.35 to 1 in NYSE & 6.96 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 3.35 to 1 in NYSE & 2.91 to 1 in Nasdaq.....

Still few more 52 wk highs than lows......39 in NYSE & 51 in Nasdaq

This weakness is extremely "surprising" as US economic news continues to be better than expected..BUT market does not care ????

AH HPQ ER was better than expected & guiding higher than consensus for 2010...UP AH $1.06 in AH volume of 2.60 million.....

AH Futures are mixed

AH Asian markets are Down

AH Oil down

AH Gold slightly UP

AH Euro slightly ticking UP @ 1.2198

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices negative......

Indices are negative & Nasdaq is showing the most weakness down .57%....

Gold Down $13.50

Oil UP 44 cents

Canadian $ UP 11 tick to 96.78

Portfolio is BRCD,CIEN,JDSU,SNDK...

@12.30 following are green :

JDSU,SOL,LDK,TCK,CNQ,SOHU,CCJ,IPI,
LVS,POT,AGU,FMCN,RCI,SINA,LULU,
IGT,WYNN,JRCC,SNE,VAR.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, May 17, 2010

All Indices closed GREEN...NICE !!!!

All Indices tested their support & made higher lows...Indices closed near best level of the day on above average volume......

Euro tested its support also & closed @ 1.2341.....

Many stocks closed green which included CIEN,SNDK,WDC,
ISRG,GOOG,MU,PMCS,AAPL,AMZN,TER,LRCX......

Disaster of the day was PWRD..whose ER was EPS in line & miss on revenue..guiding
much lower than consensus on Revenue....Down $8.23 or 24.98%.....SNDA,CYOU,NTES,GAME all down in sympathy...

AH Futures are Down

AH Nikkei UP

AH Oil UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down 1.36% area on Euro weakness....

All Indices are under pressure as Euro went to 1.2237 lowest level in four years.....currently Euro is @ 1.2314 coming back...which should help US market.

Gold Down $1.60

Oil Down $2.18

Canadian $ Down 82 tick to 96.03.....

Portfolio is BRCD,CIEN,JDSU,SNDK...

Most stocks are Down....

VIX UP 9.22%

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Option Expiry week could be bullish......

So ....here we are in third week of much dreaded May......

So far in May....we are Down 4.3% in S&P 500....feels much worse because of gyrations in the markets & Euro-phobia......

This is the Option Expiry week in Wall Street..when Market Makers takes control of the market...I have a strong feeling that OE week COULD be BULLISH as we are deeply oversold since 4th of May......

Current RSI read is as follows :

S&P 500 41.19

Dow 42.34

Nasdaq 42.41

These RSI numbers were hitting 80+ in 2nd week of April....only 4 weeks back......IF everyone was a buyer back then.....then why not position for a major buying strategy NOW ?????

There is lot of NOISE about EURO...currencies goes through adjustments all the time..nothing NEW there...remember when US$ was slumping to low low of 74.17 week after week & every month now 86.29..BUT market kept going UP....

Sooner or later everything is discounted by market & market focus changes to positives.....

SO..what is POSITIVE for the market right NOW......it IS the World Economic resurgence .....China,India,US,Canada,Australia all showing sign of GROWTH.....

Trillion $ bailout of weaker Euro zone will work.....just like our Tarp.....

There is lot of questions about Euro Bailout just like Tarp......BUT in the end it will be a success....

German economy is the strongest..Scandinavian countries are doing fine..only some European countries are showing sign of stress like Greece,Spain......

Euro MAY weaken to 1.20 area and MAY find support there....so it is important to know the impact of weaker Euro in companies you are evaluating to invest or trade.

Here is my $ allocation/sector as of Friday :

CIEN 28.67% Tech/ Networking Equipment
JDSU 28.04% Tech/Fibre Optics
SNDK 26.20% Tech/Nand/Flash Memory
BRCD 17.09% Tech/Data Networking

Tech is a strong area except where it is PC sales related......

Good luck with your OWN due diligence & comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Buy rated stocks.....

Following stocks are showing signs of upcoming bullish move.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

SNDK,JDSU,CIEN,BRCD,CRUS,CREE,BIDU,LULU,
AAPL,GOOG,GS,RVBD,CNQ,LVS,WYNN,AMZN,
FMCN,NVLS,LRCX,KLIC,STX,GNK,NAT,TNK.

Next post by noon on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, May 14, 2010

Indices closed Down 1.51% to 1.98%......

Fear about Euro & fear about slowing European economy took a toll in US markets..indices closed lower but NOT @ lows of the day.....volume was above average.....

Internals of the markets were horrible & there were more new 52 wk lows than highs..sign of serious deterioration in stock performance....

Euro closed @ 1.2360..well below support of 1.2500

NVDA guidance was a reflection of slowing economies in Europe which was also articulated by John Chambers of CSCO....

In my portfolio :

Sold TER

Bought SNDK @ $41.10

Portfolio is BRCD,CIEN,JDSU,SNDK

By noon on Saturday,I will list buy rated stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Euro sinking world markets.....

Euro is the culprit behind today's tumble..Euro has fallen well below support of 125..currently trading @ 123.93......

European markets took it on the chin by closing lower from 3%+ to almost 5%...NOT a good indicator of close in US......

Gold Down $6.10

Oil Down $3.05

Canadian $ Down 1.28 cent to 96.55 cents US for 1 CAD

In my portfolio :

Sold CRUS

Portfolio is BRCD,CIEN,JDSU,TER......

Most stocks are Down....

VIX UP 23.43%

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, May 13, 2010

1.05% to 1.26% pullback @ close.....

Last two hours was weak for all indices & they closed near lows of the day.....damage was contained to max 1.26%.....

Today's tape was normal after few day's of big moves..a normal up down action......

On a brighter note new 52 wk high list expanded to 102 in NYSE & 115 in Nasdaq....

Following stocks were green CRUS,GOOG,X,IPI,LVS,GNK,FNSR,
FMCN,FUQI,QID,VXX.....

AH NVDA ER was a beat but guiding lower revenue..stock down AH 3.75% in AH volume of 2.59 million.....

AH futures Down

AH Asian markets Down

AH Oil & Silver Down

AH Gold UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices slightly lower after huge gains.......

Indices are slightly lower after huge gains......more like marking time before running UP.....

Gold Down $3.10

Oil Down $1.17

Canadian $ UP 32 tick to 98.26 cents US for 1 CAD

In my portfolio :

Added 70% more JDSU @ $ 12.69

Portfolio is BRCD,CRUS,CIEN,JDSU,TER.....

@ 11.23 following are Green :

CRUS,CIEN,BRCD,RVBD,TCK,SNDK,AAPL,
GOOG,ISRG,MA,V,NVDA,X,AMZN,RFMD,
TSL,FMCN,RCI,CTRN,ICE,WYNN,GNK...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Dow & Nasdaq closed above 50 DMA.....NICE !!!!

Dow & Nasdaq closed above 50 DMA with Nasdaq being stronger with gain of 2.09%......

S&P 500 gained 1.37% but is barely below 50 DMA.....

Internals of the market was strong as listed below :

UP volume led by 6.49 to 1 in NYSE & 11.87 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 6.17 to 1 in NYSE & 4.49 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk highs were 88 in NYSE & 126 in Nasdaq

In my portfolio :

Sold RFMD

Doubled my position in BRCD

Portfolio is BRCD,CIEN,CRUS,JDSU,TER

Stocks UP 3% or more included JDSU,TER,CRUS,BCSI,RVBD,CREE,
MA,IPI,BIDU,GS,MU,NDN,M,PMCS,X,SOLF,FNSR,JASO,SNDK,
FMCN,LSI,STX,POT......

AH CSCO was a beat..but were cautious in their commentary about Europe & world economies....stock Down 56 cents AH on 8.70 million shares traded AH....

AH Futures are mixed

AH Asian markets are UP

AH Gold,Silver & Oil Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Dow briefly went above 50 DMA...NICE !!!!

All Indices are staring @ 50 DMA..Dow went briefly above 50 DMA.....all this technical improvement bodes well for markets....

Gold UP $18.30 into another record..but gold stocks are pulling back..sign of bullion to correct ???

Oil Down $1.16

Canadian $ UP 23 tick to 98.07

In my portfolio :

Bought JDSU @ $12.21

Portfolio is BRCD,CRUS,CIEN,JDSU,RFMD,TER.....

Most stocks are UP...

@ 12.13 following are red :

MS,IAG,TCK,GOOG,QID,VXX,FUQI,GAME,
SPWRA,LDK,SNE....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Slightly negative close.....

Indices tried to move UP despite overnight & European weakness..but by end of the day only Nasdaq was barely green.....this is not bad considering we moved UP sharply day before.....

Gold & Gold stocks were the big beneficiary of negativity by moving UP to all time high....gold is looking deeply overbought......

Strong stocks which moved up 5% or more included CRUS,AUY,EGO,SLW,GG,
IAG,FUQI.......

AH CTRP ER was strong stock moved UP AH $1.38 in AH volume of 17,509.....

AH Futures are Down

AH Asian markets UP

AH Oil Down

AH Gold UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Rally back on track...NICE !!!!

Indices fought overnight jitters from negativity from Asian markets to European markets...BUT US is giving "thumbs down" to shorts & naysayers to huge ECB support....

Even DAX has turned green after being down almost 2%.....

Media has been involved by shorts to push negativity about every effort to bring this market down.....

Gold @ record high again @ $1217.20 UP $16.80..Gold stocks are among the best performing sector.....

Oil UP 30 cents to $77.10

Canadian $ UP 53 tick to 98.18 US for 1 CAD....

In my portfolio :

Bought BRCD @ $6.37

Portfolio is BRCD,CRUS,CIEN,RFMD,TER.....

Most stocks are UP

@ 12.29 following are RED :

TCK,ASIA,SOL,TSL,POT,GOOG,
MS,GS,CSIQ,IBN,QID,IPI,MA,V,
MU,PCLN,EXPE,X,AGU,FMCN,
SINA,SNDA,GAME,FSLR,ISRG,
LDK,SNE...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, May 10, 2010

3.90% to 4.81% gain in Indices.....NICE !!!!

Technology as expected was the superstar in a huge move UP of 4.81% @ close.

All Indices are close to 50 DMA....

SEC & six US exchanges have agreed on a circuit-breaker system uniformly..which will slow down trading everywhere IF price swing in any stock exceed certain %....details are being worked on by Tuesday....so no more "shooting @ OK Coral"

AH PCLN ER was a beat on EPS & miss on Sales.....also guiding Q2 below consensus....blaming it all on European economy & Icelandic volcano.....also guiding 2nd half lower than previous year...a serious change from its previous ER.....Stock Down AH $30.24 in AH volume of 706,526....

AH Futures Down

AH Asian markets are mixed

AH Oil, Gold UP

AH Silver Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

4%+ move UP in Indices.....very NICE !!!!

Indices are rocketing UP 4%+ in all Indices.....thanks to trillion $ package by European Union..this should crush all hedgies,speculators who became an instant bear in markets & currencies......over-confidence in bearish bets was a tell-tale of a huge turnaround......

European markets are UP 5%+ BUT CAC UP 9.66%

Gold Down $12.80

Oil UP $1.77

Canadian $ UP 1.62 cent to 97.54 US for 1 CAD

Portfolio is CIEN,CRUS,RFMD,TER.....

Most stocks are UP

VIX down 31.06% to 28.23...still too high

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, May 9, 2010

BUY in May & Don't go away......

Here we are in first week of MAY......when one major trading house decided to sell SHORT billions in mini S&P 500 futures contract......resulting in triggering automatic sell programs by fastest computers on earth..so a trillion $ worth of equity was wiped out in minutes....I am sure same trading house covered their shorts which triggered computerized BUY programs ..so a 1000 point loss was created by sell programs & then 600 point recovery by buy programs.....all in a matter of minutes...we end that trading day on Thursday down 347.80....

I am 100% sure that computerized trading data has footprints & is available to SEC to find any culprit..next day???

SO..lets leave SEC to their "other important activities" like NEVER knowing what goes ON daily in markets....?????

Let us analyze what happened to the markets through S&P 500 trading.......

On April 26th S&P hit its HIGH of the year of 1219.80...9 trading days later we are @ 1110.88 Down 8.93%......ABOVE 200 DMA of 1095.72....

LOW for manipulation Thursday S&P 500 hit intraday low of 1065.79 which was DOWN 154.01 points or 12.63%...

Friday low for S&P 500 was 1094.15..down 125.65 points or 10.30%........

No matter how you analyze it..it was 9 days of sharpest decline which i have observed.........

RSI @ close on Friday is @ 30.17 LOWEST in a long long time in S&P 500....

Nasdaq RSI is @ 28.74.......

These RSI numbers are @ "screaming BUY level"

NO contagion last forever BUT is taken advantage by those who have the money & wisdom to trade accordingly......

AAPL plunged to $199 on Thursday & again on Friday to $225.....a picture of market PANIC...

In time of PANIC...it is better to re-evaluate your OWN portfolio in terms of relative strength & re-adjust in relatively stronger stocks.......

When you look back...then you will realize that "booking profit" is the smart way to go in US market...& also getting out of stocks not working out is even smarter......

It IS important to KNOW the fundamentals of good companies which has already reported as technicals are shot in most stocks...

Also focus on companies that will be reporting like PCLN Monday night,which has history of beat & guide UP.......

SO..all is NOT lost......

Regroup & stay with confidence in fundamentally strong stocks.......

World economies are improving..Jobs are being created worldwide..Inflation is ramping UP...Housing is improving......

This is "the opposite" of what we were facing in 2008....

Stock prices will reflect improving economic picture....290K job growth in US should have triggered a rally of 600 Dow points on Friday..BUT hedgies wanted market to be lower..so it closed down 140 points.....

Here is my $/sector allocation as of Friday :

CIEN 35.62% Tech/Fibre Optics
TER 30.55% Tech/Test Equipment
CRUS 21.95% TECH/Chip
RFMD 11.88 TECH/Chip

Tech will be fastest to recover alongwith base metal stocks.

Ensure your OWN comfort level & do your OWN due diligence.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Buy rated stocks.....

Following momentum stocks are oversold in this slump.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

AAPL,BIDU,CREE,ISRG,TCK,POT,AGU,
WDC,GOOG,MA,V,GS,AMZN,SNDK,MS,
RIMM.

Next post by noon on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, May 7, 2010

Weak close on high volume......

Market is in total control of bears who are using supercomputers to crush stocks & indices to inject fear......

Volume was heavy again in all indices......

Strictly from technical read...all the indices made a higher low today & retested support.....

BUT i do NOT believe that this market is RATIONAL..it is totally MANIPULATED by few for their OWN gains which is to take this market lower to any level... & SEC is looking the other way ?????

Next post by noon on Saturday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Margin selling putting pressure in Indices.....

There was a wave of margin selling .....which is putting further pressure in indices........again Dow is the more resilient..Nasdaq is lagging again....

Gold UP $3.60

Oil down $1.44

Canadian $ UP 1.04 cent to 96.02 cents US for 1 CAD..Canadian economy created 108,700 jobs vs expectations of 25,000 jobs..this is the highest job creation since Statistics Canada started tracking in 1976....

Job report in US was also better than consensus 290K vs expectations of around 200k......

In my portfolio :

Sold TSL

Portfolio is CIEN,CRUS,RFMD,TER.....

@ 12.25 following are green :

SOL,WDC,MRVL,POT,TCK,MS,GS,CSIQ,
IBN,TC,QID,VXX,PMCS,X,AGU,SOLF,GNK,
RCI,FMCN,LULU,FSLR,LDK.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Market manipulation went into overdrive.......

Today was a classic case of "group of well heeled traders getting very greedy".....

Market was manipulated to the 9's.....

Explanation given is almost "childish"

One lonely trader could not tell the difference between "a billion & a million" but is authorized to trade billions without any supervision......????

NYSE & Nasdaq are "too embarrassed to allow this to happen in such an organized manner"..so they are cancelling all the trades for that manipulated window...

I personally believe this is another case of "hush hush & wink wink approach"

Many pundits are claiming that today was NOT a capitulation & telling everyone to sell & NOT buy stocks until they give all clear......

Prices are extremely attractive for aggressive buying....

RSI has come down to the lowest level of early Feb as listed below :

Nasdaq 33.01

S&P 500 33.37

Dow 33.41

Investing & swing trading should be done @ current low low prices.......

This whole mayhem was nothing but a full fledged correction which has run its course...Greece, Spain , Portugal,Italy & Ireland Debt was the catalyst for this correction.....those are all "minor economies" which will NOT take world economies down......this is PUNY compared to financial mess we faced in 08.....

YES..once we start going UP as we have exhausted all the selling.....we will hear that Greece is NOT a problem anymore ????

AH Futures are GREEN

AH Asian markets are taking their turn in selling but Hang Seng MAY turn green......& Shanghai also down 1%...so "no supercomputers manipulation going on in Asia"

AH Oil,Gold,Silver UP....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down for third day from .64% to .91%.....

Indices are getting crushed again.....thanks to European issues.....

Dow is trying for a comeback & is the healthier of all indices.....Dow went below 50 DMA again but is trying to work its way to 50 DMA......IF Dow moves above 50 DMA @ close ...then we have completed this correction.....YES this was a correction..nothing more nothing less...ONLY reasons keeps CHANGING.......

RSI currently are as follows :

Nasdaq 38.89..low in Feb 33 area

S&P 500 39.41..low in Feb 32 area

Dow 41.28....low in Feb 32 area

As we all KNOW that market CAN turn around very quickly.....currently it IS a great buying opportunity.....Market is low enough to start buying.....Today is definitely not the day to sell....
It is almost IMPOSSIBLE to know/predict exact low either in markets or stocks.....

Gold UP $11.00

Oil Down $1.30

Canadian $ Down 1.39 cent to 95.69 US for 1 CAD

Portfolio is CRUS,CIEN,RFMD,TER,TSL.......

Solar stocks are taking it on the chin as Euro is @ another low which affects Solar earnings..but it is more than discounted today?????

Most stocks are down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

S&P 500 & Nasdaq closed below 50 DMA.....

S&P 500 & Nasdaq closed below 50 DMA while Dow closed above......

Dow MAY be leading other indices into technical health....

Today's close was NOT as bad as it could have been.....

There was lot of selling into open & many stocks dropped to its support level...

Technically strong stocks bounced back nicely into minor loss or some mustered even green close....

Today's TAPE is giving lot of hope for a green close on Thursday......

RSI @ close has reached deeply oversold levels as listed below:

Nasdaq 41.83

S&P 500 42.51

Dow 44.44

VIX closed UP 4.49% to 24.91...upper end of range...means overbought ????

AH JDSU ER was a miss on revenue ....Stock down AH 8.10% in AH volume of 1.44 million

AH Futures are green

AH Nikkei Down..catching up as they were closed for last 2 days....

AH all Asian market are down..will not be surprised to see green by close...

AH Oil,Gold,Silver UP

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

All three Indices went below 50 DMA.......

Indices are fighting to come above 50 DMA after dipping below......

Close is important for technical health of this market.......

Gold UP $8.00

Oil Down $2.22

Canadian $ Down 56 tick to 97.34 cents US for 1 CAD...

In my portfolio :

Doubled my position in TSL @ $23.51

Portfolio is CRUS,CIEN,RFMD,TER,TSL...

Most stocks are down.....

@ 1.25 following are green :

TCK,WDC,AUY,EGO,GOOG,GS,CSIQ,
RIMM,IBN,SOHU,QID,VXX,CCJ,IPI,
BIDU,NDN,M,LVS,EXPE,X,AMZN,AGU,
SINA,SNDA,CTRN,ICE,JRCC,GAME....

PS..had to step out for some chores, thus delay in my post.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

TAPE is falling apart.....

Market TAPE is falling apart in a hurry....

Today's market slump was on heavy volume.....

Market internals were pretty poor @ close as listed below :

Down volume led by 15.15 to 1 in NYSE & 13.93 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 6.06 to 1 in NYSE & 5.69 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk highs were only 64 in NYSE & 43 in Nasdaq.....

All of the above stat are not good...showing a very sick market.....

All major Indices are very close 50 DMA & MAY go below to find support

IBD saying tonight that "market in correction"

RSI numbers @ close are also very weak..near early Feb lows.....& they are :

Nasdaq 44.78

S&P 500 44.84

Dow 46.86

A defensive posture is very much needed.......

I have reduced my exposure to 30%......

Sold RIMM

Added 65% more TER @ $12.11

Portfolio is CRUS,CIEN,RFMD,TER,TSL......I am trying to FOCUS in technically healthy stocks with good fundamentals......to survive in this WEAK market.....

Many charts are breaking down..some known stocks are
below 200 DMA like RIMM,GOOG,NVDA,MRVL,PMCS,POT,PWRD,NTES,
CYOU,APWR,SPWRA, TLM,SU,CCJ......to name a few.....

VIX closed UP 18.08% @ 23.84

AH Futures are UP..

AH Asian markets are Down

AH Oil,Gold,Silver Down

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices Down 2.48% to 3.42% on worries about Eurozone....

Indices are taking it on the chin on renewed worries about economically weak countries in Europe......

Nasdaq is the weakest with almost 3.5% slump......

Today is a classic case of booking serious profit on negative reaction to Europe.....Greece Stock Exchange slumped 6.7%

Gold Down $10.40

Oil Down $2.93

Canadian $ Down 1.12 cent to 97.83 cents US for 1 CAD....

In my portfolio :

Bought CRUS @ $12.05

Bought TSL @ $24.88

Portfolio is CRUS,CIEN,RFMD,RIMM,TER,TSL......

Most stocks are RED....

@ 12.34 following are green :

QID,VXX,MA,GS,ANN.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, May 3, 2010

Strong close in all Indices......

Indices were strong @ close with gains of upto 1.5%......

Strong stocks which were UP 3% or more included :

TER,RFMD,CIEN,CREE,ISRG,LVS,RVBD,
CSIQ,SOLF,GNK,MU,LDK,AMCC,JDSU,
FNSR,JASO,SNDK,BZH,STX,LSCC....

AH ASIA ER was a beat & guiding higher EPS but lower Sales
ASIA UP AH 5.14% in AH volume of 50,784...Gross margin were
sharply higher.....

VIX Down 8.44% to 20.19

AH Futures are mixed.

AH Nikkei UP

AH Oil,Gold,Silver Down....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Almost 1.5% jump in Indices...NICE !!!!

Indices are showing their "bull run" by tagging another 1%+++ move UP.....

Economic news are getting better & better......

China is clamping down on runaway inflation by increasing bank reserve for the third time....thus less money available for lending...thus putting pressure on Commodities....

Gold UP $5.90

Oil UP 71 cents

Canadian $ UP 52 tick to 98.75 US cents for 1 CAD.....

Portfolio is CIEN,RFMD,RIMM,TER.....

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.20 following are RED :

TCK,AUY,POT,MS,SOL,TC,NTES,AA,
IBN,IPI,CMED,V,NVDA,GG,X,GAME,
AGU,VXX,QID,AEM,ABX....

PS.....Post was delayed due to overseas phone call.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Sell in May.....?????

SO..it is May...the much dreaded selling season till October......????

S0..you sold everything in May last year & felt very smart ????

Sell in May & go away...has no DEFINITIVE track record in last 10 years...as we keep moving UP to higher grounds.....

History is NEVER a good guide on Wall Street..as Wall Street keeps CHANGING......

Factually..... we slumped from March of 08 to March of 09..after making new highs in S&P 500....when we hit 1440 in March of 08 to 666 in March of 09..so full 12 months were washed out......but nobody could predict the intensity of "financial meltdown"

So..here we are in May of 2010......GS has been charged & Greece has become an issue for markets.....

BUT...GS is priced in & Greece bailout is ready to be signed off on Friday.........

Investor intelligence had the most bullish reading of 54% last Thursday...then market promptly corrected on Friday.......

RSI reading on Friday close is @ :

S&P 500 49.35

Nasdaq 51.04

Dow 51.21

Indices are close to their support levels.....major support exist in 50 DMA.......

I personally believe..... that markets are on the verge of making another run to new highs......

Worldwide economies are in "robust mode".....

Australia is looking @ 40% tax on mining profit to spend on infrastructure (Ports,Rail,Roads) & lowering corporate tax......due to booming demand from China & India...

Every country which i monitor..is showing GDP growth on a quarterly basis......

We have just about wrapped the aftermath of financial meltdown...GS indictment is the last straw of financial machination.......

Friday's correction was very healthy.......technicals are repaired & retested for support......

Any weakness is/has been a "buying opportunity"

I am extremely bullish going forward.......

Here is my $/sector allocation as of Friday's close :

RIMM 66.44% Tech/Smartphone
CIEN 18.32% Tech/Optical Networking
TER 9.24% Tech/Test equipment
RFMD 6.0% Tech/semiconductor

Yes....i am all in Tech..which is having extremely robust growth..still diversified in many areas of Tech........

Looking beyond corrections is very important..as we are in a major bull run........think one year out when buying anything......

Good luck with your OWN due diligence & comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Buy rated stocks....

Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your OWN due diligence by checking FA/TA/TAPE.

CIEN,RIMM,RFMD,TER,CRUS,BCSI,JDSU,
MRVL,TCK,LTXC,MS,CCJ,JRCC,HL,TSL,
ECA,EGLE,PIR,AUY,ASIA.

Next post by noon on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem