Thursday, May 31, 2012

Indices closed down .21% to .35%........

Indices were under pressure all day, it made a brave effort to be in green, but close was in the red.

S&P 500 closed @ 1310.33.

RSI 36.53

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.21 to 1 in NYSE & 1.58 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.08 to 1 in NYSE & 1.10 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk lows were in the lead, 125 in NYSE & 93 in Nasdaq

VIX down .33% @ 24.06

Oil @ $86.53

Gold @ $1564.20

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold Down

Chinese official PMI for May came in @ 50.4 vs expectations of 52.2, April was @ 53.3 a 13 month high. Chinese official statement was that growth will pick up in 2nd half, which is a general consensus. Anything above 50 is a growing economy.I do not see  recession which CNBC will trumpet.

Indian GDP for Q1 came in @ 5.3% lowest growth rate in 9 years. Q4 growth was 6.1%...a steep drop from Q4.....

About market, market has discounted slow growth for the most part for China, India & US. Jobs report shortfall could be part of this. I expect market to fight its way out of Jobs data & Chinese slow PMI growth. Yes... it is very painful near bottom, but today's TAPE was very encouraging. I recommend staying the course, as most bad news are out already.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices down .08% to .60% ........

Indices were under pressure from below expectations economic reports in US........

Dow is trying to show green as weaker than expected numbers are in the cards, based on seasonality.

S&P 500 low today was 1298.90, currently @ 1309.16

Internals are negative

New 52 wk lows are leading.

Oil Down $1.11

Gold Down $2.70

Canadian $ Down 30 tick @ 97.80, @ 5 month low.

VIX Down .79% @ 23.95...most encouraging sign for a turn UP

Portfolio is COH,LVS,LEN,LNKD,JCP

Most stocks are down

@ 2.29 following are green :

LEN,AMZN,NTES,ZNGA,CIEN,C,FNSR,
TSL,SNE,GS,IBN.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Indices closed down 1.17% to 1.43%.......

Indices were under selling pressure all day & closed near lows of the day.

Reason for worldwide selling was Spain & Greece.

S&P 500 closed @ 1313.32, low was 1310.76

RSI 37.44

Internals were :

Down volume 13.33 to 1 in NYSE & 6.46 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 6.58 to 1 in NYSE & 3.82 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk lows were leading, 65 in NYSE & 62 in Nasdaq

Oil closed @ $87.82

Gold closed @ $1565.70

VIX closed @ 24.14, UP 14.79%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, next two days is all about jobs related news. Thursday is ADP & jobless claims & Friday is Jobs report. As we are deeply oversold AGAIN based on RSI, it is probable that we may end UP HIGHER both days. Remember TWO UP & ONE DOWN. European situation can go on for many years to come. They will go in background for few days or weeks then come back to forefront with vengeance.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices down 1.11% to 1.27% on Eurozone issues....

Indices are down from open, following European indices which are down sharply also.

S&P 500 low so far is 1311.18

Internals are negative by minimum 4 to 1

VIX UP11.27% @ 23.40

Oil down $3.09

Gold UP $13.90

Canadian $ Down 51 tick @ 97.23....near 4.5 month low

Portfolio is COH,LVS,LEN,LNKD,JCP

Most stocks are down

@ 1.39 following are green :

AAPL,GG,VECO,AUY......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Indices closed near high of the day....NICE !!!!

Indices braved all the ongoing issues of Europe to close on a strong note. Indices closed UP 1.01% to 1.18%.

S&P 500 closed @ 1332.42, high was 1334.93

RSI @ 43.94

Internals were :

UP volume led by 7.82 to 1 in NYSE & 3.06 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 3.75 to 1 in NYSE & 2.37 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk highs were in the lead today, 55 in NYSE & 44 in Nasdaq

VIX closed Down 3.35% @ 21.03

Oil Down @ $90.76

Gold Down $1551

Stocks which were UP $1 or more included COH,LVS,LNKD,
TIF,M,BIDU,APKT,CLF,TCK,LULU,CMG,PCLN,GOOG,
AAPL,AMZN,NTES,MA,BRCM,VECO......

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil Down

AH Gold UP

About market, Europe is still holding world stock markets back. It remains a struggle on a day to day basis.Its TWO step UP & ONE step Back. But it is a time to position in better stocks for future move UP.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .45% to .52%......NICE !!!!!

Indices are in green on optimism about Greece.

Internals are positive.

New 52 wk lows are in the lead.

Oil Down 18 cents

Gold Down $13.50

Canadian $ Down 20 tick @ 97.47

VIX UP 2.48% @ 22.30

Portfolio is COH,LVS,LEN,LNKD,JCP

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.38 following are down :

LNKD,JCP,GOOG,FB,ZNGA,GG,MA,AMZN,
EXPE,SLW,AEM,CSIQ....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, May 27, 2012

After 8 weeks of decline, can we get a rally going ?

@ the start of April, things were really looking bullish.

VIX was near lows & struggling in 15.

S&P 500 was @ 1415.32.......

BUT then started an 8 week of downtrend which took S&P 500 to 1291.98, this was a decline of 123.34 points or down 8.71% in a straight line......before this decline, we were getting used to max 2% pullbacks on an intraday basis.

Greece was the main reason for this slump, yes we were overbought, but that should have resulted in a max 5% decline.......

China & India also facing economic challenges, a slowdown which is affecting world economy. GDP growth rate in China & India has slowed down substantially. Both countries are trying to reflate their economy by many policy actions. Any new initiative to reflate takes time & results may not show up for another 90 days.

Bright spot is US, where housing is making a comeback. Manufacturing activity is healthy.

US Consumer confidence is @ 5 year high @ 79.3 .

Most traders & investors are under-exposed in stock market, due to fear generated by Greece & China.

I see tremendous buying power waiting on the sidelines.

Markets have corrected for 8 weeks & some key indicators like CMF & RSI are @ 5 months low.

S&P 500 was @ this level in Jan 2011, which is 17 months ago..also same level back in 1998-1999 run?

There is a very good chance that we may approach 1400 area....which is a potential gain of about 82 points or 6.22%......

TAPE has sharp UP & DOWN moves lately, we may get to 1400 in a hurry.

Many leading stocks have corrected sharply, they are the ones which may move UP the-most in a very short time.

We all have suffered in this sharp downturn, maybe it is time to benefit from our CONVICTION....

BIG moves in indices happens suddenly when we least expect.......

Most world markets including Canada, are open on Monday. This may give preview of coming week.

Good luck with your OWN due diligence & comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, May 25, 2012

Another constructive close......

Indices closed well off lows of the day, in extremely light holiday volume.

S&P 500 low was 1314.23..which is another higher low from yesterday.

S&P 500 high today was 1324.20 which is higher high than yesterday, closed @ 1317.82.

RSI @ 36.06

Internals were positive.

New 52 wk high low in NYSE were even @ 29, lows were leading by only 11 in Nasdaq...a major technical improvement

Oil closed @ $90.86

Gold closed @ $1568.70

Canadian $ closed @ 97.15...lowest close in 4 months

VIX closed @ 21.76

Stocks which closed green included JCP,
KORS,APKT,CLF,GG,SU,LRCX,MU,
BRCM,VECO, SNDK...

Portfolio is COH,LNKD,LEN,LVS,JCP

Here is my weighting as of close :

COH 48.14%

LNKD 25.23%

LEN 11.16%

LVS 8.93%

JCP 6.54%

Exposure 80%

Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Enjoy your Memorial Day weekend with friends & family.

Saleem

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Another impressive close.....NICE !!!!

Indices ended the day on a very impressive footing.

DOW & S&P 500 ended green.

Nasdaq was under pressure & closed down.

S&P 500 closed @ 1320.68

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.12 to 1 in NYSE & .59 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.39 to 1 in NYSE & 1.05 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk lows were leading but shrank big time, 46 in NYSE & 58 in Nasdaq

VIX closed down 3.54% @ 21.54

Leading stocks were under selling pressure all day & closed down as listed :

LNKD -$4.70, TIF -$4.21, CMG -$4.34, PCLN-$4.15,
GOOG -$5.80, AAPL -$5.24, AMZN -$2.04, CLF -$2.26

Oil @ $90.66

Gold @ $1557.60

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down

About market, how we close determines the real strength of any market. Last several day's we had impressive close near high of the day. This is setting UP for a strong UP day. BUT...as usual do NOT get carried away, as machines are running the show & volume is drying up due to upcoming long weekend. Stay with your conviction as markets should work its way higher, with its usual gyrations.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS..On Friday's, there is a closing BLOG only around 6 PM.

Saleem

Indices @ low of the day......

Indices are @ low of the day....Chinese PMI was weak, came in @ 48.7% in May vs 49.3% in April. Below 50 is contraction in economy.

Chinese GDP for Q1 came in @8.1%, getting close to their official goal of 7.5% GDP growth....

US data was as expected....

Indices down .42% to .92%

S&P 500 @ 1313.06

Internals are negative

Oil UP 55 cents

Gold UP $3.70

Canadian $ Down 40 tick @ 87.20

VIX UP 2.96% @ 22.99

Portfolio is COH,LVS,LEN,LNKD,JCP

Most stocks are down

@ 2.12 following are green :

FB,M,MA,EGO,AEM,TSL,AGU,IBN....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Impressive retest of support & major reversal....NICE !!!

Indices were subjected to same old fear about Greece. S&P 500 refused to go below recent low, which triggered a major reversal on high volume.

Indices in US had impressive close, despite European markets closed down almost 2.5%.

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.65 to 1 in NYSE & 1.37 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.54 to 1 in NYSE & 1.18 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk lows still leading, 107 in NYSE & 126 in Nasdaq

VIX @ 22.33

Oil @ $89.90

Gold @ $1548.40

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included LEN,LNKD,JCP,
FB,ZNGA,APKT,CLF,TCK,LULU,CMG,AAPL,MOS,GG,
SLW,BIDU,FNSR......

AH ER :

NTAP Down 16.77%

HPQ UP 9.01%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, today was a classic example of NOT paying attention to day to day gyrations. I can assure you, that it is NOT the last "supercomputers driven DOWNdraft or UPdraft". Software is pre-programmed to trigger sell or buy IF certain numbers are the trigger point.So... show conviction & stay with stronger stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices down .83% to 1.05%.......

Indices are facing selling pressure again, thanks to Greece & Spain issues.

S&P 500 went down to 1296.53, higher than previous low of 1291.98, technically making higher low.

RSI @ 31.63

Internals are negative by minimum 2 to 1

Oil Down $2.09

Gold Down $27.50

Canadian $ Down 36 tick @ 97.56

VIX UP 3.25% @ 23.21

Portfolio is COH,LVS,LEN,LNKD,JCP

Most stocks are down

@ 2.05 following are green :

LEN,JCP,ZNGA,BIDU,APKT,LULU,PCLN,GOOG,CMG,
AAPL,FB,MOS,GG,SLW,EXPE,SBUX,AEM,SINA,TCK..

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Constructive close today......

Constructive close today, as indices did NOT close @ their lows.

S&P 500 closed Green @ 1316.63, low was 1310.04.....it was almost a Doji close....

RSI @ 34.84

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.1 to 1 in NYSE & 1.40 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by .94 to 1 in NYSE & 1.63 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk lows CONTRACTED  to 44 in NYSE & 70 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 2.14% @ 22.48

Oil closed @ $91.66

Gold closed @ $1576.60

Stocks which were UP .8% or more included COH,LNKD,LEN,
NTES,QCOM,V,C,KORS....

AH ER :

ADI Down 2.96%

DELL Down 12.86%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, European markets closed UP almost 2%. US market is driven by Hedge Funds & Rumour.Latest rumour is being denied AH by last Greek Prime Minister. YES..that is the way US market is behaving.Based on RSI in indices & in strong stocks, it is PRUDENT to look beyond minute by minute GYRATIONS. Stick to your OWN conviction & PRUNE out stocks which is NOT working & does not have big money sponsorship.

Till Q4 it will be tough to make money, but be positioned in stocks where chances of making money is very high. I have rejigged my portfolio big time & am more confident of future gains. Undervalued stocks with question marks are not being given any credence. It is NOT what you think, it is what market thinks under the "current environment." Adapting to "new reality" is key to success on Wall Street.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .11% to .44% ......

Indices are UP so far.....

S&P 500 went to 1328.49, currently @ 1321.21

Internals are mixed...

Oil Down 90 cents

Gold Down $12.50

Canadian $ Down 25 tick @ 98.02

In my portfolio :

Sold RIMM

Bought LEN @ $27.10

Portfolio is COH,LVS,LEN,LNKD,JCP

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.01 following are down :

JCP,FB,BIDU,ZNGA,CLF,FCX,FFIV,VMW,
GOOG,AMZN,RIMM,OTEX,LSI,MOS,GG,
VECO,X,TSL,SINA,CCJ,AGU,IBN....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, May 21, 2012

Indices closed up 1.09% to 2.46%......NICE !!!

Indices staged a strong reversal, closing @ best level of the day.

S&P 500 closed @ 1315.99

Internals were :

UP volume led by 5.32 to 1 in NYSE & 5.16 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 5.92 to 1 in NYSE & 3.30 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk lows were leading, 59 in NYSE & 103 in Nasdaq

VIX closed Down 12.31% @ 22.02

Oil closed @ $92.57

Gold closed @ $1588.70

Stocks which were UP 3% or more included RIMM,COH,LVS,
LEN,KORS,BIDU,APKT,CLF,FFIV,VMW,LULU,PCLN,
AAPL,OTEX,CNQ,MOS,SLW,SU,MA,V,BRCM,VECO,
JDSU,CIEN,FNSR,SNDK.......

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, today was a deeply oversold bounce. IF we have a follow through on Tuesday on decent volume, then this rally may have legs.IF we close on a high note like today, then the next level to watch is 1340, then 1360 & finally 1380.58 which is 50 DMA. I personally do not believe that we have seasonal strength or money flow to go through 50 DMA. SO...this rally has a sell written above 1360 area.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


Indices rebounding after G8 meeting......NICE !!!!

Indices are UP .78% to 1.93% in reaction to G8 meeting @ Camp David.

In that meeting, Obama convinced Germany to incorporate Growth along with budgetary discipline.

G8 also made a fresh commitment to keep Greece in EU........

It seems that, now EU will accommodate Greece in its need for growth in economy.

Internals are positive almost 3 to 1 minimum

Oil Up $1.03

Gold Down $1.10

Canadian $ UP 14 tick @ 98.02

VIX Down 10.16% @ 22.55

In my portfolio :

Bought LNKD @ $97.11

Bought JCP @ $26.66

Portfolio is COH,LVS,LNKD,RIMM,JCP

Exposure 80%

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.51 following are down :

LNKD,FB,ZNGA,NTES,BJRI.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, May 18, 2012

Indices closed down .59% to 1.24%.......

Indices were under selling pressure again.

S&P 500 closed @ 1295.22, low was 1291.98

RSI @ 23.22

Internals were negative by minimum 2.5 to 1

New 52 lows expanded their lead, 157 in NYSE & 221 in Nasdaq

Oil @ $91.31

Gold @ $1295.22

Canadian $ @ 97.92

VIX @ 25.10

In my portfolio :

Sold LSI

Sold 50% RIMM

Portfolio is COH, LVS,RIMM

Here is my weighting :

COH 57.22%

RIMM 31.98%

LVS 10.80%

Exposure 54%

About market, S&P 500 next support is @ 200 DMA which is 1278.22, IF we do not hold that, then we are in NEVERLAND. Market TAPE has been awful & defies normal trading pattern. It has been downhill since start of April, we are now down 130.40 points or 9.17%.

Canadian market is closed for holiday on Monday.

Next post on Monday around 2 PM, no post this Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Extremely disappointing close today......

Indices closed down 1.24% to 2.10%......

S&P 500 closed @ absolute low of the day @ 1304.86

RSI @ 25.09

Internals were :

Down volume led by 7.71 to 1 in NYSE & 8.76 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 6.41 to 1 in NYSE & 4.25 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk lows were leading, 155 in NYSE & 157 in Nasdaq

VIX closed UP 9.97% @ 24.49

Oil closed @ $92.56

Gold closed @ $1574.90

AH ER :

MRVL UP 3.01%

CRM UP 6.49%

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, tonight we closed @ absolute low of the day with extremely negative internals. S&P 500 is now Down 117.52 points or 8.26%. Greece has been @ centre stage for 3 years & never seems too far away from spooking traders & markets. There was wholesale dumping of stocks today. Hopefully this discounting is done for the near term.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices making lower lows again......

Indices are making lower lows again.

Indices are down .64% to 1.08%

S&P 500 low today is 1311.01, RSI @ 28.08

Internals are negative minimum 2 to 1

New 52 wk lows are leading again...

Oil Down 22 cents

Gold UP $40.60

Canadian $ Down 31 tick @ 98.46

VIX UP 1.08% @ 22.51

Portfolio is COH,LSI,LVS,RIMM

Most stocks are down

@ 1.46 following are green :

RIMM,GS,VMW,TCK,GOOG,JCP,CNQ,
NTES,GG,SLW,ZNGA,VECO,EGO,ABX,AEM...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Another lower low close.....

Indices closed near lows of the day in all indices.

Volume picked up in some.....

S&P 500 closed a tick above low of the day @ 1324.80

RSI @ 29.67

Internals were negative & were down over 2 to 1

New 52 wk lows intensified, 135 in NYSE & 122 in Nasdaq

Oil Down @ $92.81

Gold Down @ $1536.60

VIX closed UP @ 22.27

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold UP

About Market, S&P 500 has shed 7.37% @ close since start of April. Pessimism is @ its peak. Most stocks RSI are near bear market lows. We may see a strong rebound from current level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices struggling, making lower lows......

Indices are in a typical bear mode, making lower lows on a daily basis. Oversold bounce does not last more than 1 hr.

Extremely weak TAPE.

S&P 500 went to another lower lows hitting 1326.89, RSI @ 30.68

Internals are negative.

New 52 wk lows are expanding their lead on a daily basis.

Oil Down $1.35

Gold Down $24.00

Canadian $ Down 38 tick @ 98.95

VIX UP 2.09% @ 22.43

Portfolio is COH,LSI,LVS,RIMM....

Most stocks are down

@ 2.29 following are UP :

COH,LNKD,LEN,CMG,GOOG,M,
V,NTES,MU,BWLD,EXPE,SINA.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Indices closed down .30% to .57% in disappointing close...

Indices were under selling pressure in the last hour, when traders were thinking of all the uncertainty associated with Greece.

All indices were in red @ close.

S&P 500 low today was 1328.41, closing @ 1330.66

RSI @ 31.23

Internals were :

Down volume led by 3.72 to 1 in NYSE & 2.21 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.90 to 1 in NYSE & 1.18 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk lows were leading, 126 in NYSE & 101 in Nasdaq

VIX closed UP .46% @ 21.97

Oil closed @ $93.98

Gold closed @ $1557.10

Stocks which closed UP 1% or more included KORS,
BIDU,LEN,VMW,GOOG,CRM,ZNGA,FNSR......

AH ER JCP Down 12.21%

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, we are deeply oversold & market is still ignoring many positive economic news. Sometimes market may be anticipating event which may not be priced in. May has certainly surprised all of us with deepest pullback since last year, so far we are down 6.61% since April 2012. An oversold bounce is imminent.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Another disappointing TAPE......

Indices are finding weak buying support.

TAPE is  WEAK......

All the gains are disappearing, indices barely green

S&P 500 lower low was @ 1335.56

Internals Mixed

New 52 wk lows are in the lead.

Oil Down 64 cents

Gold Down $3.70

Canadian $ Down 13 tick @ 99.56

VIX Down 2.10%

In my portfolio :

Sold LNKD

Portfolio is COH,LSI,LVS,RIMM

Exposure 79%

Most stocks are down

@ 2.05, following are UP :

LNKD,LVS,KORS,BIDU,PCLN,GOOG,LEN,VMW,
APKT,CMG,M,AMZN,NTES,CRM,MA,BRCM,
VECO,FNSR,BWLD,GS,IBN.......

BLOG Does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, May 14, 2012

Another disappointing close.....

Indices closed down .98% to 1.11%.

S&P 500 low was 1336.61, closed @ 1338.35.

RSI @ 33.36......

Oil closed @ $94.78

Gold closed @ $1561.00

VIX closed @ 21.87 UP 9.95%

AH ER GRPN UP 17.94%

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, we are deeply oversold, we are back @ January of 2011 level in S&P 500. We have retraced 17 months of any gains. @ low point today S&P 500 have given back 85.77 points or 6.03% in last 6 weeks. We were @ 1422.38 @ start of April. A strong technical bounce is long overdue.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem 

Indices @ best level of the day, despite Greece....NICE !!!

World markets were given another uncertainty by Greek politicians, their inaction or inability is causing grief for the entire world markets again & again......3 years of drama is enough, Germany will make the decision soon to end this daily trauma.

S&P 500 went down to 1336.61, RSI @ that point was 33.04, signalling washout condition.

Currently, indices are down .38% to .47%

Internals are negative by minimum 2 to 1

Oil Down $1.69

Gold Down $23.20

Canadian $ Down 7 tick @ 99.83

VIX UP 5.48% @ 20.98

Portfolio is COH,LSI,LVS,LNKD,RIMM

Most stocks are down

@ 2.01 following are green :

RIMM,LNKD,LSI,BIDU,APKT,LEN,FCX,GOOG,
OTEX,CRM,V,ZNGA,JDSU,CIEN,SNDK,NDAQ...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Indices ready for a major rebound ?

Indices faced a barrage of unsettling news for many weeks, Greece,Spain,France,JPM,CSCO,PCLN....but we did not crash into multi year lows?

All we did was lose 5.10% from recent high of 1415.32.....This happened in 8 straight days of trading...

Underpinning of this markets is strong.......

Many CONTRARY signals are making me "super bullish"

- Individual investors are only 25% bullish, lowest level since Sep 22, 2011

- 40.9%  expect correction, matching lowest read ever

- Equity allocation @ 52% only lowest level since 2009, we all remember what happened after 2009?

All of the above goes against the fact, that all Indices held their support

RSI in major indices are as follows :

Nasdaq 37.34

S&P 500 38.08

DOW 39.03

IF we look back @ history of RSI in all indices, 30 level triggers a "major bounce"

SO..IF you are in it, you should get the benefit of upcoming "major bounce"

YES..it gets very PAINFUL near bottom ALWAYS....that is how we all know that "turn is @ hand"

On a personal note, my portfolio has taken a beating, I am down <21.81%> in Stocks YTD, thankfully my currency hedge is still UP 13.48% YTD....that makes my overall loss @ <8.33%> YTD.....

It is important to take a factual read of your YTD performance near lows of the year also, this tells you how you have performed YTD compared to indices...this may TRIGGER some strategy CHANGES...

As to equities, most of the previous leaders should perform again, some NEW leaders may emerge. Being FLEXIBLE is the key.

While we move UP from current level, it is important to show CONVICTION to strong stocks..let it ride UP........

Good luck with your OWN analysis & strategy.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, May 11, 2012

Constructive close today, despite JPM $2 Billion disaster

Indices were bracing for a big downdraft, but cooler heads prevailed. Indices were off their lowest level by close.

As markets were deeply oversold already, there was less willingness to sell.

JPM CEO was always talking a "perfect game", but now we know, "he ain't so perfect after all" $2 billion++ loss is no laughing matter, but CEO is very casual about it,using adjectives to justify, NOT heads rolling including himself...the buck stops @ his "Mahogany desk"...

Internals were :

Down volume led by  2 to 1 in NYSE & .98 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.51 to 1 in NYSE & 1.44 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 week highs were leading in NYSE, new 52 wk lows were leading in Nasdaq

VIX closed @ 19.89

Oil closed @ $96.13

Gold closed @ $1584

Canadian $ UP49 tick @ 100.32, Canada created 58,200 jobs in April well above consensus, CAD rallied......

Portfolio is COH,LSI,LVS,LNKD,RIMM

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included LEN,JCP,NTES,VMW,
FFIV,CRM,LRCX,
MU,BRCM,CIEN,
FNSR

Portfolio weighting is :

RIMM 39.18%

COH 34.04%

LNKD 14.25%

LVS 6.87%

LSI 5.66%

Exposure 89%

Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.

PS...post was delayed due to a personal matter.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Disappointing close today......

TAPE today was disappointing. There was no conviction in buying after six day's of losses.

Indices closed Mixed.

S&P 500 closed @ 1357.99

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.59 to 1 in NYSE & .76 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.71 to 1 in NYSE & 1.40 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk highs were leading, 74 in NYSE & 61 in Nasdaq

Oil closed @ $97.08

Gold closed @ $1595.50

VIX closed @ 18.83

Stocks which closed UP 1% or more included OTEX,CMG,CNQ,
AMZN....

Chinese inflation came hotter than expected, actual 3.4%, consensus 3.3%.Producer prices dropped .7%, expectations were .5%.

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, with JPM announcement of $1 billion shortfall from their guidance in this Q, financials will take it on the chin. Market do not look healthy, may go below previous support. This may create a final buying opportunity.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .11% to .52% in weak oversold bounce....

Indices are UP after six day's of selling.

Internals are positive.

52 wk highs are back in the lead.

Oil UP 37 cents

Gold UP $3.00

Canadian $ UP 16 tick @ 99.92

VIX down 5.83% @ 18.91

Portfolio is COH,LSI,LVS,LNKD,RIMM

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.10 following are red :

RIMM,COH,KORS,APKT,LEN,VMW,FFIV,
PCLN,CRM,CIEN,BRCM,ARUN,CF,NTES,
WYNN,AGU.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Indices closed down .39% to .75% in high volume....

Indices struggled whole day for sixth day in a row, ending lower.

S&P 500 low today was 1343.13, closing @ 1354.58. S&P 500 was down 5.37% in current selling.

RSI @ 37.88

Internals were :

Down volume led by 2.16 to 1 in NYSE & 1.39 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.12 to 1 in NYSE & 1.85 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk lows were leading, 74 in NYSE & 79 in Nasdaq

Oil closed @ $96.81

Gold @ $1594.20

VIX closed @ 20.08

AH ER :

PCLN Down 3.90%

CSCO Down 8.68%

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down

About market, after making of series of lows, selling may have dried up. Election of Left leaning parties in Greece & France caught world markets by surprise. High volume selling took hold as panic sets in.On the positive side many stocks are showing CMF in green, all indices are showing positive CMF after a long time. SO...things are looking UP finally.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices trying for "V" bottom.......

Indices were under selling panic again, thanks to Greece, Spain, Portugal.

S&P 500 went to new lower low @ 1343.13, currently @ 1357.61

Internals are negative

Oil Down 65 cents

Gold Down $9.90

Canadian $ Down 20 tick @ 99.89

VIX UP 1.94% @ 19.42

Portfolio is COH,LSI,LVS,LNKD,RIMM

Most stocks are down

@ 2.01 following are among green :

LNKD,KORS,APKT,LEN,CLF,VMW,FCX,
PCLN,GOOG,AAPL,JCP,GG,SLW,V,CRM,
ZNGA,LRCX,SNDK,CRUS.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Indices closed down .39% to .59% in high volume....

Indices took a tumble on Greece political mayhem, Greece stock market @ 20 year low. This took a major toll in world markets.

Markets tried to find its footing but still fell short of a classic V bottom.

S&P 500 @ low today was down 4.77% from its recent high of 1415.32.

RSI @ 40.91

Internals were :

Down volume led by 2.66 to 1 in NYSE & 2.06 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.52 to 1 in NYSE & 1.07 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk lows were leading, 74 in NYSE & 94 in Nasdaq

VIX closed UP @ 19.05

Oil closed Down @ $97.01

Gold closed Down @ $1604.50

AH Futures, Asian Markets, Oil & Gold Down

About market, we are overdue for an "oversold bounce". TAPE has been WEAK. Many stocks are   trading  @ multi- month lows. Many sectors are WEAK. Technical health of this market does not bode well for a sustained move UP. Few areas of market are showing strength for a bounce, CMF is green in S&P 500 & DOW, Nasdaq still negative, but improving. The way we closed today, gives hope for a "green close on Wednesday".

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices down 1.10% to 1.16% in high volume selling.....

Indices went through support to reach levels not seen in two months.

S&P 500 went down to 1347.75, currently @ 1354.29...RSI @ 38.00

Internals are negative by minimum 2 to 1.

New 52 wk lows are in the lead.

Oil Down $1.50

Gold Down $34

Canadian $ Down 61 tick @ 100.09

VIX UP 5.76% @ 20.03

Portfolio is COH,LSI,LVS,LNKD,RIMM

Most stocks are down

@ 1.55 following are green :

RIMM,OTEX,VECO.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, May 7, 2012

Impressive close today......

Indices were headed to a major fall after European elections, where leftist came to power.

As markets were oversold, there was little punch to the selling.

Indices closed near high of the day.

S&P 500 closed @ 1369.58, RSI @ 42.94

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.16 to 1 in NYSE & .90 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.40 to 1 in NYSE & 1.15 to 1 in Nasdaq

Oil closed Down @ $97.94

Gold closed Down @ $1639.10

VIX closed Down @ 18.94

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included CRUS,VECO,GOOG..

AH ER :

WYNN Down 1.53%

EA Down 5.55%

RAX Down 11.52%

SNCR Down 18.03%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, Indices are deeply oversold @ open today. Volume was low in selling. We are setting up for a nice rally.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

All indices heading towards GREEN.....NICE !!!!

Indices are showing green color.

European election does NOT change reality of fiscal mess, no matter who is in power, they have to do something QUICK.......

S&P 500 low today was 1363.94, well above recent low & support. Currently S&P 500 @ 1372.51

Internals are positive.

Oil Down $1.20

Gold Down $5.70

Canadian $ UP 18 tick @ 100.66

VIX Down 3.39% @ 18.51

Portfolio is COH,LSI,LVS,LNKD,RIMM

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.44 following are down :

LNKD,LVS,BIDU,APKT,CMG,M,GG,SLW,
MA,CRM,EGO,WYNN....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, May 6, 2012

"Market in correction".....says IBD

IBD changed its market outlook to "Market in correction"......on Friday AH.....

Market has reacted to slew of economic data, which was below consensus.

Jobs growth was well below consensus.

S&P 500 has lost 3.35% in 4 consecutive days, Tuesday high was 1415.32 & Friday low was 1367.96.

S&P 500 closed @ 1369.10........

RSI @ 42.73

CMF negative in all indices

CMF outflow is most pronounced in Nasdaq.....

SO...where markets are heading ?

I personally beieve that markets are near support & may have seen the low or are very close to finding support.

Support in S&P 500 is near 1357.38.....

Resistance maybe near 50 DMA or 1386.64

As expected, markets are choppy & will remain so.

Profit needs to be booked when resistance appears.

Swing trading is the-best approach between now & end of August.

Traditionally between May & October are "wild months"

Less exposure & fast trading is the way to go..

Expectations needs to be brought down for next 6 months.

Less stressful trading needs to be adopted.

Traders need to understand, that leadership changes every 3 months.

Old high fliers are being sold off in a hurry.

We are all set to see oversold bounce, try to take advantage of that, as it may not last more than 3 days....then back to testing of support.

We are in a close trading range, try to adapt.

Good luck with your OWN take of market & your comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, May 4, 2012

Job Growth of 115K tanked the market.......

830 AM brought the news of job growth of only 115K, far cry from 168K expectations.

Indices closed near lows of the day.

S&P 500 low was 1367.96, closing @ 1369.10....RSI @ 42.73

All indices are well below 50 DMA

Internals were :

Down volume led by 6.33 to 1 in NYSE & 10.38 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 3.09 to 1 in NYSE & 4.23 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk lows were leading by 5 in NYSE & by 53 in Nasdaq

Oil crashed to close @ $98.49

Gold closed UP @ $1645.20

Canadian $ down 65 tick @ 100.48

VIX jumped 9.11% @ 19.16

Stocks which closed green included LNKD,
V,GG,VECO,MU,EGO,TSL,YGE,NYX,
BJRI,KOG.....

Portfolio is COH,LSI,LVS,LNKD,RIMM

Here is my current $ weighting :

RIMM 38.19%

COH   34.54%

LNKD 14.88%

LVS      6.87%

LSI        5.52%

Exposure 89%

Next post by 2 PM Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Indices closed down .47% to 1.16%......

Indices were under selling pressure again.

Nasdaq closed below 50 DMA.

IBD changing market outlook to "uptrend under pressure"

S&P 500 closed @ 1391.57 above 50 DMA , RSI @ 51.20

S&P 500 low 1388.71

Internals were :

Down volume led by 3.77 to 1 in NYSE & 5.59 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining srocks led by 2.33 in NYSE & 2.89 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk highs still leading, 115 in NYSE & 78 in Nasdaq

Oil closed @ $102.54

Gold closed @ $1634.80

VIX @ 17.56

Stocks which were down 3% or more included RIMM,
CNQ,FCX,TCK,GG,SLW,SU,V,ZNGA,MS,MU,
JDSU,CRUS,ARUN.....

AH ER :

CF UP .77%

LNKD UP 8.50%

LNKD ER was a beat in Sales & EPS, guiding higher than consensus on Sales, Also revising upward 2012 outlook.

Sales consensus Q1 $178.58 million, actual $188.50 million

EPS consensus 9 cents, actual 15 cents

Q2 consensus Sales $207.93 million, guiding $210 million to $215 million

2012 guidance Sales $880 million to $900 million vs previous guidance of $840 million to $860 million.....

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, It is all about jobs report, consensus is job growth of 170K. Market should find its footing by end of the day. Economic data has been on the weak side & markets has reacted to it already. Jobs data may encourage selling @ open, but we should be above lows by end of the day.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Weak ISM report taking a toll ......

Indices are down .58% to 1.21% after weak ISM report.

Internals are negative by minimum 2 to 1....

S&P 500 @ 1390.30

Oil Down $2.68

Gold Down $21.50

Canadian $ Down 19 tick @ 101.15

VIX UP 6.16% @ 17.92

Portfolio is COH,LSI,LVS,LNKD,RIMM

Most stocks are down

@ 2.19 following are green :

LNKD,LULU,GOOG,M,CRM....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Constructive close today, despite European & US data......

Close today is very impressive, indices recovered most of their losses & Nasdaq closed near high of the day & in green. S&P 500 lost 3 points & Dow 10 points.

European 11% jobless rate & ADP low job growth, did very little damage.

S&P 500 closed @ 1402.31, RSI @ 56.14

Internals were :

Down volume led by 2.04 to 1 in NYSE & .71 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.28 to 1 in NYSE & .88 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk highs were leading, 101 in NYSE & 81 in Nasdaq

VIX @ 16.88

Oil closed @ $105.22

Gold closed @ $1654.00

Stocks which closed UP 2% or more included COH,
LEN,LULU,ZNGA,MU,VECO....

AH ER :

V Down 2.14%

JDSU Down 4.49%

GMCR Down 40.59%

WFM UP 3.70%

APKT UP 8.08%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down

About market, Jobless claims report will impact the day. I am expecting jittery reaction to upcoming jobs report on Friday. Down close may be the result of, buyers waiting to see jobs report Friday before open. We need a boring close once in a while. A good day on Thursday to think / readjust portfolio to take advantage of any weakness.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Market fighting back ADP jobs data.......

Indices are fighting back against ADP bleak jobs data. Technical strength @ play here.

Nasdaq is staying for green. Dow & S&P 500 down by max .33%

Internals are negative.

Oil Down 85 cents

Gold Down $12.80

Canadian $ Down 13 tick @ 101.31

VIX UP 2.29% @ 16.98, down from higher level

In my portfolio :

Sold RVBD

Portfolio is COH,LSI,LVS,LNKD,RIMM

Most stocks are Down

@ 1.57 following are green :

COH,LVS,LEN,KORS,LULU,BIDU,FFIV,VMW,
CMG,PCLN,AAPL,ZNGA,VECO,CRUS,TSL,
CCJ.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Dow closed @ highest level since Dec 2007....NICE !!!!

Not only Dow closed @ new 2012 high, but went to highest close since Dec 2007.

S&P 500 closed @ 1405.82

RSI 57.83

Internals were :

UP volume led by 2.62 to 1 in NYSE & 1.14 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.85 to 1 in NYSE & .88 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk high were leading, 200 in NYSE & 118 in Nasdaq

VIX closed @ 16.60

Oil closed @ $106.16

Gold closed @ $1662.40

Stocks which closed UP 1% or more included LSI,
LEN,CMG,LULU,CNQ,TCK,SU,M,ZNGA,MS,
LRCX,MU,VECO,C,SNDK,KORS.....

AH ER :

BRCM Down 2.06%

OTEX Down 4.32%

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, technically indices are in a major uptrend. Indices do not make multi-year highs in isolation, it is happening, because there is support in TAPE. I know many pundits are wishing European PMI will take this market down, BUT this TAPE is capable of gathering steam when nobody is expecting.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem 

Indices UP .74% to .96% on strong US manufacturing data....

Indices are back into positive TAPE, right after manufacturing data hit wires.

S&P 500 @ 1412.38, getting close to hitting new 2012 highs.

Internals are positive by minimum 2 to 1

Oil UP $1.32

Gold Down $1.40

Canadian $ UP 26 tick @101.56

VIX Down 5.77% @ 16.16

Portfolio is COH,LSI,LVS,LNKD,RIMM,RVBD

Most stocks are UP

@1.49 following are red :

RIMM,LNKD,PCLN,OTEX,AMZN,
NTES,BRCM,ARUN,AEM.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem