US stock market ready for slumping week ......

 US stock market is in real trouble......

Key averages are below 50 DMA

Stimulus is in trouble

Job data to be hopeless

Earnings are being sold off

DOW jones is well below 50 DMA

S&P 500 is below 50 DMA

Nasdaq only 90 points above 50 DMA

SOX only 79 points above 50 DMA

Russell 2000 only 9 points above 50 DMA

GME represents an epic battle between High Frequency Traders and determined daytraders, no one stock can crater a healthy market.

BUT when Robinhood  " restricts 50 stocks with only 1 shares allowed to buy " you are all set for trouble in stock market.....

50 stocks can and will kill any market....

IF free trading is allowed in 50 Stocks then a chance of  " V " shaped recovery is there.

I believe that we slump @ open with Nasdaq, SOX & IWM well below 50 DMA......

IF Robinhood wakes up and allow free trading then only we stabilize...

GME defines a strategy which HFT traders do not like as it is being done against their " Dumb Supercomputers " by human daytraders....and humans are winning against HFT hands down....a reality which upsets " milking small investors "

SO it is an epic battle which has started ....but this time casualty will be so called HFT / smart money / old money...who have friends in regulatory framework.

I am in BB which has negligible short interest about 5%... but is in restricted list and margin in BB has been reduced even by my broker TD Webbroker in Canada.....

Strange times indeed....

SO what to do now in this " crazy trading "

Monitor your stocks closely and react to match your own comfort level

Pay attention to regulatory news as it is bound to change during trading hours....

As far as RSI is concerned in DOW it is @ 38.95...it can go to high 20's....but it could come within first 3 hours of Monday's trading...

IF we have sudden sharp drop in all averages, chance of a " V turn  is very high " with some regulatory support statement.

IF you must..then liquidate all your position in pre market or @ open to watch this epic battle from outside.....

Hedge Funds are not taking hits lightly and may overreact in selling their winners to a bargain level.

Market focus has changed and we all must react accordingly, its good to be a spectator than be part of mega selling of good stocks.

Good luck with your own analysis and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down 1.93% to 2.03%......

 Indices closed down in a week which resulted in epic battle of determined daytraders vs traditional market makers, results are still being felt all over, does not look good for market or market stability.

S&P 500 @ 3714.24, low 3694.12, high 3778.05

RSI @ 43.27

CNF @ 0.057

Internals for Nasdaq only :

Declining stocks led by 2.39 to 1

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 65

VIX UP 9.53% @ 33.09

Oil @ $52.20

Gold @ $1850.30

Canadian $ @ .7219

Stocks which closed green included CNX

PAAS SWKS AG RIOT MSTR DASH

SPWR GAN QRVO CRWD DDOG

NVAX MRNA QCOM MCD....

Here is my portfolio weighting :

SQ          27.95%

SU          19.47%

CNX       16.39%

MGM     16.25%

FSLR     15.39%

BB          4.55%

Next post by 6 PM on Sunday

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .50% to .99%....NICE!!!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 3787.38, high 3830.50, low 3755.75

RSI @ 52.50

CMF @ 0.070

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.40 to 1 in NYSE & 2.46 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 2.22 to 1 in NYSE & 1.26 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 85 in NYSE & 98 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 18.81% @ 30.21

Oil @ $52.34

Gold @ $1837.90

Canadian $ @ .7184

In my portfolio...added 90% BB @ $17.00

Portfolio BB CNX FSLR MGM SQ SU

Stocks which were UP 4% or more included MGM SQ

PAAS AG AAL MSTR CIIC MU PANW LYFT TWTR

DADA PENN AUY PLAN CGC SAL CRWD UBER

ENPH SEDG EAT LSCC ASML TWLO SNAP LNG...

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE celebrated victory by old guard of Wall Street by putting restriction thus punishing new ideas to make money so old money can get out of losing trade, not a fair way to close books. Indices closed UP with positive internals. Tomorrow some normalcy / balance is being restored with only 1 hand cuffed vs both today, will see how the market behaves.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down 2.05% to 2.61%.....

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 3750.77, low 3732.48, high 3836.83

RSI @ 47.28

CMF @ 0.057

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.28 to 1 in NYSE & .77 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 4.91 to 1 in NYSE & 5.39 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 122 in NYSE & 127 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 61.64% @ 37.21

Oil @ $52.85

Gold @ $1844.90

Canadian $ @ .7212

In my portfolio :

Sold BB @ $22.00

Bought APA @ $15.50

Sold APA @ $14.70 in AH

Bought BB @ $23.00 AH, Added 120% BB @ $20.00 in closing seconds of my AH around 7 PM in Canada ( AH trade stops @ 7 PM in Canada and pre market starts @ 8 AM)

Portfolio BB CNX FSLR MGM SQ SU

Stocks which closed green included BB

AAL CCL FUBO AI NKLA JKS RXT

CLDR GOOS ZI CIEN CGC TOL KBH

NTAP NVAX LITE MRNA IQ WB YY

YELP ORCL X M ACB....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, TAPE was under serious selling pressure despite Fed policy statement & Q & A which was extremely reassuring. Short hedge funds were facing huge margin calls thus across the board selling to raise funds to cover, how tables have turned. Many forces are trying to stop this game in reverse as they do not like being pushed into selling / covering or facing huge margin call during the day.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .07% to .15%....

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 3849.62, high 3870.90, low 3847.78

RSI @ 65.28

CMF @ 0.126

Internals were :

Nasdaq stat only

Declining stocks led by 1.64 to 1

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 260

VIX Down .73% @ 23.02

Oil @ $52.80

Gold @ $1850.70

Canadian $ @ .7285

Portfolio BB CNX FSLR MGM SQ SU

Stocks which closed green included BB

AG YAYO FUBO DASH RIDE CIIC

NKLA IBM SPWR DKNG JKS RXT

CLDR TWTR HEXO ZI CGC TOL

CRON APHA MRNA HUYA MOMO

BYND BZUN FB UAL BABA JWN

TWTR OSTK M TLRY ACB.....

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down.

About market, TAPE was down in a day when side show has become all shorted stocks, most of them were sharply higher again thanks to gutsy traders. After hours earnings were mostly better than expected but there was a yawn and they went down except MSFT which went sharply higher on key metrics outperformance.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed.....

 Indices closed mixed.

S&P 500 @ 3855.65, high 3859.23, low 3797.16

RSI @ 66.65

CMF @ 0.191

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.07 to 1 in NYSE & 1.47 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.33 to 1 in NYSE & 1.13 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 443 in NYSE & 497 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 5.84% @ 23.19

Oil @ $52.77

Gold @ $1855.20

Canadian $ @ .7248

In my portfolio :

Bought BB in pre market @ $19.50

Added 150% SQ @ $319.64

Sold AAL @ $15.26

Portfolio BB CNX FSLR MGM SQ SU

Stocks which closed UP included BB CNX

FUBO CLF AI NKLA GAN GOOS ZM

DDOG PDD JD NVAX MRNA HUYA

MOMO BYND BZUN YY SWKS M....

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE closed mixed with another new all time closing highs in Nasdaq & S&P 500. Internals were mixed. Many stocks have seen gigantic moves since COVID-19 lockdown or stay home scenario, how it will end nobody knows BUT markets do reflect different approach in different situation, good or bad its always left to coroners to dissect and give full report.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

US stock market in 2021.....

 New year has started, as with any new year there are many predictions for US stock market in 2021.

There is a general unease among many seasoned analysts as to where we go from here....

Most expect a modest gain in 2021...

Lowest prediction is S&P 500 is we may close in 3600 area a decline of 241 points or negative 6.2%  from Friday's close.

Optimist are saying we close around 4000 a gain of 158  points or positive 4.11%

Most wall street are stuck with a gain from 8% to 12%...

Most optimistic number I have seen is a gain of 20% for 2021 from famed outperformer Cathie Woods of Ark Investments whose ETF gained an stunning 140%+++ in 2020....

I know most of the predictions for S&P 500 is not even close to Nasdaq 40%++ in 2020

For the record S&P 500 was an underperformer in 2020 also, it started 2020 @ 3230.78 and ended 2020 @ 3732.04...a gain of 501.28 points or 15.62%......

So an average of 8% gain in S&P 500 in 2021 will be almost half of 2020.

Nasdaq stunning gain in 2020 by cloud / stay home stocks / solar / vaccine related can be described as rare phenomenon.

Nasdaq / technology has outperformed for many years in aggregate but has slumped hard in post Y2K era also.....

I expect Technology to beat other averages this year also.....

Most technicians / analysts are predicting small caps to outperform in 2021...

Financials / Industrials / Commodities / Energy are heavily favored for 2021......

Obviously most traders are not used to focus in highlighted area for 2021......

It will be wise to pay attention to where money Managers are piling their funds to outperform...

2020  like 1999 was an aberration not a real investing scenario where 400% gains came for many traders / investors....

It will be a huge mistake to keep looking @ 2020 for any direction to where money can be made....

Please look @ potential gains in new sectors.....

There is a fear that 2020 winners can slump badly in 2021.....

Good luck with your own thesis and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed.....

 Indices closed mixed with Nasdaq closing @ new all time high. Internals weakened a touch more. Indices closed above their lows of the day.

S&P 500 @ 3841.47, low 3830.41, high 3852.31

RSI @ 65.00

CMF @ 0.104

Internals were :

UP volume led by .98 to 1 in NYSE & 1.64 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.00 to 1 in NYSE & 1.52 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 231 in NYSE & 242 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 2.77% @ 21.91

Oil @ $52.27

Gold @ $1865.20

Canadian $ @ .7284

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included CNX SQ

AG BB MGNI FUBO RIOT FCX MSTR NIO AMD

SPWR TWTR DADA PENN TOL CRWD DDOG

KBH DHI PHM SEDG EAT AAPL HUYA MOMO

OSTK M.....

Here is my portfolio weighting :

SU       21.78%

MGM  18.87%

FSLR  17.49%

CNX   17.36%

AAL   12.32% 

SQ    12.18%

Next post by 6 PM on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed.....

 Indices closed mixed.

S&P 500 @ 3853.07, high 3861.45, low 3845.05

RSI @ 67.59

CMF @ 0.104

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.87 to 1 in NYSE & .43 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.49 to 1 in NYSE & 1.30 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 383 in NYSE & 341 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 1.20% @ 21.32

Oil @ $53.13

Gold @ $1865.90

Canadian $ @ .7363

Portfolio AAL CNX FSLR MGM SQ SU

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included FSLR MGM

YAYO MGNI FUBO RIDE NKLA SNAP PINS NIO 

AMD IBM SPWR GAN JKS CSIQ MU INTC PENN

CIEN TOL ESTC KBH ENPH SEDG MRNA AAPL

DHI PHM HUYA ASML FB AMZN LVS MGA

OSTK ULTA TSM CMG....

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, TAPE closed mixed after Nasdaq making another new all time high. Internals were weak. Solar stocks were among the strongest. Please make sure you are booking profits and rotating into better risk / reward stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .83% to 1.97%...NICE!!!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 3851.85, high 3859.75, low 3816.22

RSI @ 67.46

CMF @ 0.150

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.24 to 1 in NYSE & 1.50 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 2.02 to 1 in NYSE & 1.26 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 469 in NYSE & 516 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 7.14% @ 21.58

Oil @ $53.24

Gold @ $1866.50

Canadian $ @ .7351

In my portfolio :

Bought SQ @ $226.67

Bought FSLR @ $102.56 in pre market

Bought SU @ $18.48 pre market

Sold CCL @ $20.72

Portfolio AAL CNX FSLR MGM SQ SU

Stocks which closed green included AAL FSLR MGM

AG BB BIDU SNAP PINS DKNG JKS MSFT TWTR

PENN TOL DAL DDOG KBH JD AAPL DHI PHM 

IQ LULU AEM AMZN BABA GOOG NFLX FB

NTNX CSIQ WYNN MA MGA MCD CMG V...

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil Down 

AH Gold UP

About market, TAPE celebrated new President Biden & Vice President Harris in office by hitting new all time highs in all major indices / sectors. Internals were strong. Many sectors participated even FANG for a change which proves rotation is in. There is more UP move in store.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .38% to 1.53%....NICE!!!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 3798.91, high 3804.53, low 3780.37

RSI @ 61.38

CMF @ 0.125

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.64 to 1 in NYSE & 3.66 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.92 to 1 in NYSE & 2.14 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 321 in NYSE & 396 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 4.52% @ 23.24

Oil @ $52.98

Gold @ $1840.20

Canadian $ @ .7274

In my portfolio :

Sold TECK on Monday in Toronto @ $25.36 Canadian

Bought CNX @ $12.95

Portfolio AAL CCL CNX MGM

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included   MGM

APA TECK AG BB MGNI FCX CLF MSTR DASH

BIDU MRVL NIO SPWR GAN JKS CSIQ MU ZI

QRVO ROKU TOL ESTC KBH ENPH APHA 

SEDG PHM BA HUYA MOMO ASML QCOM 

TSM FB LRCX FSLR AMAT BABA GOOG 

OXY SLB LNG OSTK SWKS TSM X....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE was strong in technology, solar and stay home stocks. Internals were strong. Many sector participated in today's rally. Inauguration should be a positive day then back to business of getting confirmation of many appointees. Do not forget to book profit as you go along.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

US stock market could be challenging in 2021....

 US stock market could be much more challenging in 2021.

Many " new " things need to be factored in......

New administration in USA....

New policies to be initiated...

New approach to deal with COVID-19

Higher personal  / business taxes

Higher Capital gains taxes

Cancellation of keystone pipelines

IF you just add up the above....US stock market may not like some of the things and may react negatively in a hurry...

Many traders were getting used to following the tickers @ open or pre market or after hours and took its cues and jumped on board...

Normal stock market does not give any cues, it develops trading range over a long period of times..

Average gains in US stock market has been 8%.....NOT 40%+++ which we have seen in 2020....

It took stock market 20 years from 1999 Y2K boom to create and stabilize bust form 2000 total carnage...

Previously 1987 boom took 12 years to stabilize.....

Point IS it takes minimum 12 years to get another boom in stock market which we have witnessed in 2020.....

History is telling us to take a very conservative view of 2021 and going forward....

Many anticipated policy changes have been priced in and then some...be it solar or EV or stay home.. all these stocks have defied " gravity & logic "...they have gone too far based on PE or PS.....

They all need to come down to " normalized to below normal PE / PS "

This may take a protracted down trend as seen after 1987...famous October 1987 crash and more recent 2000 long slump or 2007 housing debacle......

Factoring history is a very good tool to stay connected with reality....

Do not risk too much going forward.....

Even energy stocks are ahead of its fundamentals never mind stay @ home stocks.....

Try to play rotation after pullbacks for a quick / small gains in 2021.....

Good luck with your own thesis and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .57% to .87%.....

 Indices closed down and a down week due to extended rally which we have witnessed since October 2020. Internals were weak.

S&P 500 @ 3768.25, low 3749.62, high 3788.73

RSI @ 57.06

CMF @ 0.127

Internals were :

Down volume led by 2.40 to 1 in NYSE & 1.10 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.20 to 1 in NYSE & 2.24 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 168 in NYSE & 214 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 4.69% @ 24.34

Oil @ $52.36

Gold @ $1829.90

Canadian $ @ .7285

In my portfolio in pre market :

Sold SU @ $19.19

Sold CNX @ $13.65

Following stocks closed green BB CNX

CIIC SNAP PANW DADA HEXO PLAN 

TOL ERI MTCH ZM ESTC KBH APHA

LITE BMO GILD DHI PHM WB BZUN

MCD TWLO FB CRUS BABA FFIV LNG 

FB ORCL MCD KBH TLRY ACB....

Here is my portfolio weighting on 46% exposure :

MGM        39.87%

AAL          27.32%

CCL         20.87%

TECK      11.04%

Next post on Monday by 6 PM as markets are closed in USA on Monday due to Martin Luther King holiday. World markets and Toronto open as usual on Monday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .12% to .38%....

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 3795.54, low 3792.86, high 3823.60

RSI @ 62.87

CMF @ 0.137

Internals were :

UP volume led by 2.80 to 1 in NYSE & 1.81 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 2.24 to 1 in NYSE & 2.50 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 589 in NYSE & 604 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 4.68% @ 23.25

Oil @ $53.57

Gold @ $1851.40

Canadian $ @ .7364

In my portfolio in After hour :

Sold BB @ $9.69

Sold APA @ $18.57

Portfolio AAL CCL CNX MGM SU TECK

Stocks which were UP 3% or more included

AAL CCL CNX SU TECK APA BB

MGNI RIOT DASH CIIC BIDU 

NKLA SPWR GAN INTC GOOS

CGC CRON APHA TLRY ACB

ELF MRNA NCLH ASML TSM

TWLO LRCX UAL BABA OLED

OXY AG AMAT OSTK M MSTR

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE closed near low of the day after being nicely UP, this mini reversal may be a telltale of things to come. Internals were all positive despite lower close. I am feeling extremely uncomfortable with overall market as it is " defying my logic " I intend to reduce further my exposure either in pre market or @ open, am already @ 76% of my exposure.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed.....

 Indices closed mixed.

S&P 500 @ 3809.84, high 3820.96, low 3791.50

RSI @ 66.15

CMF @ 0.239

Internals were :

UP volume led by .72 to 1 in NYSE & 1.71 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.15 to 1 in NYSE & .84 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 420 in NYSE & 426 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 4.80% @ 22.21

Oil @ $52.91

Gold @ $1854.90

Canadian $ @ .7285

Portfolio AAL APA BB CCL CNX MGM SU TECK

Stocks which closed green included AAL

AI MSTR DASH SQ NKLA NIO SPWR 

DKNG SNOW INTC MSFT NXPI HEXO

ZI SHOP CGC TLRY ACB CRON DAL 

UAL ERI MTCH HST ZM UBER KBH

JD BABA AAPL HUYA MOMO QCOM

BYND NVDA TSLA NFLX YY MU MA

AMZN V M ....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, TAPE was mixed today due to impeachment vote which went positive. Market should focus on the technicals which is strong and may move sharply higher in short order. Internals were mixed also. Most sectors look's healthy, normal rotation keeps happening on a daily basis.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .04% to .28%....NICE !!!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 3801.19, high 3810.78, low 3776.51

RSI @ 65.13

CMF @ 0.174

Internals were :

UP volume led by 3.07 to 1 in NYSE & 2.34 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 2.06 to 1 in NYSE & 2.23 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 525 in NYSE & 460 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 3.11% @ 23.33

Oil @ $53.21

Gold @ $1844.20

Canadian $ @ .7251

Portfolio AAL APA BB CCL CNX MGM SU TECK

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included

AAL APA CNX SU TECK

MGNI FUBO RIOT MSTR DASH

BIDU SNAP PINS GAN LYFT DOCU 

ROKU CIEN DAL UAL ZM UBER EAT

KRA MRNA MOMO TSLA LRCX AMAT

YY JWN OXY SLB OSTK X M TLRY.....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE started in a narrow range dipped in red and then closed green, most Indices made new all time high. Internals were strong. Stay home, Oil & commodities stocks were strong as oil went to 11 month high price. All eyes will be on Washington DC for impeachment hearing with its usual drama.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .29% to 1.25%......

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 3799.61, low 3789.02, high 3817.86

RSI @ 64.95

CMF @ 0.193

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.07 to 1 in NYSE & 1.88 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.53 to 1 in NYSE & 1.17 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 277 in NYSE & 258 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 11.69% @ 24.08

Oil @ $52.25

Gold @ $1835.40

Canadian $ @ .7227

Portfolio AAL APA BB CCL CNX MGM SU TECK

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included BB CNX

MGNI DASH RIDE MRVL NIO AMD SPWR DKNG

GAN MU LYFT QRVO DADA PENN GOOS ROKU

CGC TLRY ACB TOL KBH DHI PHM CRWD UPS

UBER DDOG LITE TER NVDA TSM LRCX JWN 

SNAP AMAT LNG MRNA MS X M ,,,,,,

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, TAPE was under mild selling pressure as all bit coin type crypto currency came under severe selling / profit taking plunging from 15% to 25% from hitting their highest level ever. Political backdrop in USA has lot of uncertainty which can dampen traders enthusiasm in short term. Stay home stocks resumed their run as COVID-19 still raging all over the world.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

US stock market in blowout phase.....

 Market is in blowout phase which can end abruptly without notice.

Either on news or no news @ all just overbought condition we may drop substantially in a day.

This is not an orderly market anymore.

Many stocks are over stretched to the point of insanity

Can it go on further.....maybe

Serious rotation will come into play, out from froth and into deep value

How to tell what is frothy and what is deep value.....very easy...it IS RSI number.

Here is the RSI for entire market / indices / sector :

TAN              79.40

SOX             75.20

XLF             74.87

IWM            74.28

Nasdaq      71.33

S&P 500    70.27

DOW         68.32

XLE           66.45

JETS         51.54

SLV          46.81

GLD        42.85

Solar, Semiconductors, EV and financials are getting lot of funds flow based on Democratic sweep and upcoming stimulus program.

Bottom 3 sectors are Airlines Gold & Silver.......

Other deeply discounted sector is Cruise lines....where there has been outflow...

Why do I analyze RSI about sectors / index / market.....it gives a very quick focus where to look and what to avoid immediately.

There are millions of equities trading in world exchanges, almost impossible to check individual stock RSI......

YES you must know where overall market IS and RSI does just that.

High fliers and deeply overbought stocks does not represent good Risk / Reward ratio.....and may be very stressful with wild swings on a daily basis.

It IS time to play extremely conservative when valuations makes no sense in short term

Many things are priced-in in many stocks, one needs to locate stocks which represent good Risk / Reward ratio plus good prospect going forward are being ignored based on " current environment "

Stock market always looks ahead 6 months, thus try to predict environment of July 2021....things may be lot different than today.....

Once you narrow down sectors which is NOT deeply overbought then find stocks which offers " compelling bargain based on 2022 earnings "

Good luck with your own analysis and strategy.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .18% to 1.03%....NICE !!!!

 Indices closed near high of the day. DOW, S&P 500 & Nasdaq all closed @ new all time high. Oil closed @ record high of 2 years. Technology continue to shine in rotation. We are off to a very good start for 2021.....

S&P 500 @ 3824.68, high 3826.69, low 3783.60

RSI @ 70.27

CMF @ 0.225

Internals were :

UP volume led by .96 to 1 in NYSE & 1.50 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.10 to 1 in NYSE & 1.06 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 588 in NYSE & 527 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 3.62% @ 21.56

Oil @ $52.24

Gold @ $1835.40

Canadian $ @ .7298

Stocks which were UP by 2% or more included BB MGM

RIOT CLF AI DASH BIDU RUN NIO DKNG DADA

PENN GOOS DOCU ZI SHOP ROKU ZM DDOG

JD IQ BZUN TSLA BABA FFIV OLED YY 

CMG X.....

Here is my portfolio weighting :

SU         29.72%

MGM    18.54%

AAL      13.07%

BB       11.37%

CCL    10.24%

APA     9.30%

TECK  5.93%

CNX   1.83%

Next post by 6 PM on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .69% to 2.56%....NICE !!!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 3803.79, high 3811.55, low 3764.71

RSI @ 68.25

CMF @ 0.145

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.94 to 1 in NYSE & 6.30 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.72 to 1 in NYSE & 2.99 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 637 in NYSE & 530 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 10.77% @ 22.37

Oil @ $50.83

Gold @ $1913.60

Canadian $.7274

Portfolio AAL APA BB CCL CNX MGM SU TECK

Stocks which were UP 4% or more included   BB

FUBO RIOT AI MSTR DASH SQ RIDE NKLA

SNAP PINS MRVL RUN NIO AMD SPWR JKS

CSIQ PANW DADA DOCU SHOP ESTC DDOG 

ENPH SEDG DHI PHM KBH XLNX NVDA

TSM TSLA FEYE FSLR AMAT ROKU OSTK

TLRY.....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE was strong and Nasdaq was flying and was strongest by far. Internals were strong also. DOW, S&P 500 & Nasdaq all made a new all time high. There was calm & unanimity on political front which is extremely positive. Stay home, Solar stocks, Technology were strong. Do not forget to book gains.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed....

 Indices closed mixed.

S&P 500 @ 3748.14, high 3783.04, low 3705.34

RSI @ 61.87

CMF @ 0.138

Internals were :

UP volume led by 3.80 to 1 in NYSE & 1.69 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.72 to 1 in NYSE & 1.64 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 649 in NYSE & 473 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 1.07% @ 25.07

Oil @ $50.63

Gold @ $1908.60

Canadian $ @ .7310

Portfolio AAL APA BB CCL CNX MGM SU TECK

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included APA CNX MGM

FCX CLF MSTR RIDE RUN IBM SPWR DKNG GAN JKS

CSIQ DADA PENN NEM ROKU CGC DAL HST ENPH

SEDG KRA VICR TSM TSLA JWN OXY SLB YELP

SOL MGA MS ULTA X M TLRY ACB.....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE started weak then greeted clean sweep by Democrats in Georgia thus a huge rally in Pot & Solar stocks. Stocks tempered their gains with " horror show in DC " Stocks ended mixed by close with Nasdaq in mini red. Internals were strong. Thursday should be a catchup day in markets after " healing "

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .55% to .95%...NICE !!!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 3726.86, high 3737.83, low 3695.07

RSI @ 58.94

CMF @ 0.154

Internals were :

UP volume led by 3.34 to 1 in NYSE & 3.74 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 2.86 to 1 in NYSE & 2.49 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 273 in NYSE & 196 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 6.04% @ 25.34

Oil @ $49.93

Gold @ $1954.40

Canadian $ @ .7295

Portfolio AAL APA BB CCL CNX MGM SU TECK

Stocks which were UP 3% or more included APA SU TECK

MGNI FUBO RIOT FCX CLF DASH SQ RUN MU LYFT

DADA PENN CNQ ROKU CGC CRWD UBER ENPH

PDD LITE KRA BA HUYA LRCX UAL AMAT BABA

EXPE YY OXY SLB LNG GPRO WYNN MGA 

OSTK SWKS X TLRY.....

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Market Mixed

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down

About market, Indices closed near high of the day, many sectors participated in this rally, Energy stocks were UP close to 10% as price of oil touched $50. Internals were strong. Wednesday could be dictated by result of Georgia election, IF republican maintain majority in Senate then a strong rally is expected as gridlock is ideal for economy.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .25% to 1.48%....

 Indices closed down,

S&P 500 @ 3700.65, low 3662.71, high 3769.99

RSI @ 54.98

CMF @ 0.185

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.93 to 1 in NYSE & .52 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.14 to 1 in NYSE & 1.43 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 336 in NYSE & 279 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 18.55% @ 26.97

Oil @ $47.62

Gold @ $1956.60

Canadian $ @ .7216

In my portfolio :

Sold AG @ $14.40

Added 40% MGM @ $30.40

Portfolio AAL APA BB CCL CNX MGM SU TECK

Stocks which closed green included APA CNX TECK 

AG FCX MSTR SQ RIDE NKLA NIO TSLA PINS

IAG JKS KL CSIQ GOLD NXPI DADA NEM CNQ

CGC LITE MRNA LRCX IQ HUYA LULU TSM

AEM FSLR OSTK X ACB TLRY....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil  UP

AH Gold Down

About market, TAPE opened higher made new all time high then plummeted down 700 in DOW, similar losses in S&P 500 & Nasdaq. There was slight improvement by close. Reason for this reversal was rotation, Georgia election & weakness in Chinese economy. Hopefully turnaround Tuesday will see a strong close despite advance polling speculation about Georgia election.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

2021 US stock market.......

 Here we are in 2021.....

US stock market has gained 43% in Nasdaq & 7% in DOW for the year 2020.....

SO IF you bought Nasdaq then you are looking very smart.....

BUT IF you were in DOW it was UP only 7%...which is below 8% average gains for market...

SO.....with all the fear & talk of Pandemic which started in January in Wuhan China and now in January of 2021 it is still gaining momentum in 2nd wave in US / Canada 3rd wave in some countries.....BUT we ended stock market in 2020 as IF it was a positive......

Most of us in this BLOG and elsewhere did not follow any script and did our own thing.....

Surprisingly, I stayed away from my favorite sector technology as it was gaining strong momentum....

I played MGM AAL CCL APA CNX over & over as I liked its volatility in a very narrow range compared to wild swings of Technology stocks which was making me very nervous...my gains for the year was 58.40%.....with very little stress....

Looking forward to 2021.....

It is not going to be easy for popular stocks

Rotation will be in high gear and may outperform most popular stocks, @ least that is the theme I am working with....

Biggest beneficiaries of 2020 was not my approach but those who listened to the market where 400% gains in some stocks were normal......

It will be interesting IF overall gains of any individual portfolio matched those 400%+++ gains....as volatility was stomach turning in those stocks......

Looking forward....

BITCOIN related stocks are being touted for 300%+++ gains in 2021, prediction for bitcoin is running into 6 digits value by end of the year.

Oil related ETF XLE ( stocks ) have made it into Dan Niles screaming buy list, another person who was known to be technology stocks focus....but he is ignoring techs to a large extent....

SO for 2021 ...one needs to think outside their own comfort zone to capitalize on rotation for 2021....

Overall market may not match 2020 @ all, it may be very sluggish for whole year.....

Some may wonder why sluggish for 2021, It seems that stocks which may perform well are not either in Major Index / Indices thus averages may stall.

Most of the prominent stocks have outperformed in 2020 and may be ahead of its fundamental or technicals thus may trade in a narrow range for 2021.....

There is lot to analyze for 2021, but starting with a fresh approach and outside the box is highly recommended.

Good luck with your own thesis, strategy and expertise.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem