Indices closed UP 1.17% to 3.41%....NICE !!!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 4515.55, high 4516.89, low 4414.02

RSI @ 46.40

CMF @ -0.011

Internals were :

UP volume led by 4.18 to 1 in NYSE & 11.22 to ! in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 4.37 to 1 in NYSE & 4.51 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 163 in NYSE & 176 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 10.23% @ 24.83

Oil @ $88.15

Gold @ $1796.40

Canadian $ @ .7302

In my portfolio Sold 50% HST @ $17.30

Portfolio HST BTCC SNAP MGM NCLH RIOT UAL

Stocks which were UP 6% or more included SNAP RIOT NCLH

SOL PLTR XPEV FSLR AFRM HOOD AG SQ LSPD COIN

ARKK X ROKU MRVL TWTR QRVO FUBO AI MSTR

DASH BIDU PINS RUN AMD DKNG SNOW CSIQ 

LYFT NXPI DOCU ZI ZM CRWD ESTC ENPH

PDD SEDG BYND NVDA TWLO TSLA BABA API QS

NIO JKS OSTK CGC TLRY.....

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE staged a huge oversold bounce and also confirmed Friday's UP move. Most sector participated in today's short covering / buying. Only sector which missed today's fun was energy stocks although oil is @ highest level in 8 years. Hopefully caution will prevail in construction of portfolio going forward.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

US Stock market staging an oversold bounce.....

 Finally, US stock market is ready to stage a deeply oversold bounce.

There is a good chance, this bounce may last for several days.

This is a great chance to get rid of vulnerable stocks.

This is also a very good chance to rethink about your investment philosophy.

Market character has changed......

Bear market has taken over...

Russell 2000 was the first index to hit 20% bear market  level.

Nasdaq is extremely vulnerable to hit  bear market level....

This TAPE is looking very shaky and can succumb to any selling pressure very quickly.

Most participants are still not ready to accept that bear market is a real possibility, this makes for a rude awakening when it is too late.

Bear market is a fact of life for stock market...it happens quite routinely, sometimes in quick succession sometimes after few years...

TAPE is giving all indication that this bear market may last longer than previous short trading bouts.

It is well advised to prepare for a worst scenario NOT a passing bear market...

This week, I may further reduce my exposure to only 25%.....

It will be better to see impact of higher interest rates than be in a predictive / optimistic mode

From all indication interest rate hike will start in March and may last until October, which may clear up bearish action by then....

October has found many lows / support in many bear market, you may be early but better than be trapped from hereon...

From all indications, Energy Financials and reopen sectors like Airlines, Cruise lines, Hotels Casinos all are looking better positioned than technology......

Energy is most vulnerable to immediate pullback to deal with euphoria.....so a wait and see in Energy is desirable....

YES...some select Technology and EV can give good return....

Make sure that no matter what you buy, ensure price is right.....

Bear market are extremely painful and equity can evaporate in no time....so be mindful & watchful.

Good luck with your thesis about market and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP 1.65% to 3.13%...NICE !!!!

 Indices staged a deeply oversold bounce with Nasdaq in lead. Indices closed @ high of the day.

S&P 500 @ 4431.85, high 4432.72, low 4292.46

RSI @ 38.07

CMF @ -0.089

Internals were :

UP volume led by 2.91 to 1 in NYSE & 4.17 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.83 to 1 in NYSE & 1.87 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 734 in NYSE & 1131 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 9.28% @ 27.66

Oil @ $86.82

Gold @ $1786.60

Canadian $ @ .7243

Stocks which were UP 6% or more included BTCC RIOT SNAP

AFRM HOOD LSPD AAPL FUBO MSTR DASH DKNG

ESTC NVAX TWLO MA V OSTK....

Here is my portfolio weighting 50% exposure :

HST        48.18%

UAL       19.58%

NCLH      9.36%

BTCC      7.96%

MGM      6.64%

SNAP     4.85%

RIOT     3.43%

Next post by 6 PM on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .02% to 1.40%....

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 4326.51, low 4309.50, high 4428.74

RSI @ 24.32

CMF @ -0.168

Internals were :

Down volume led by 2.06 to 1 in NYSE & 3.95 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.65 to 1 in NYSE & 3.65 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 612 in NYSE & 621 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 4.60% @ 30.49

Oil @ $86.61

Gold @ $1793.10

Canadian $ @ .7289

Portfolio HST BTCC SNAP MGM NCLH RIOT UAL 

Stocks which closed green included CNX SU

TJX PYPL LULU CRM JBLU TWTR CNQ

PINS PFE MSFT PANW GOOS PLAN CVX

ELF NKE NFLX OXY MA MS V.....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE continues to baffle most optimistic participants and they keep saying " how could this be daily "...get used to it. Nothing is in the horizon which may alter the bearish tone of this market, it is going to be a long wait for "normalcy to return ". Oil is also getting very crowded traded now which only means they may go down on its own weight or liquidation for liquidity.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed....

 Indices closed mixed.

S&P 500 @ 4349.93, low 4304.80, high 4453.23

RSI @ 25.49

CMF @ -0.125

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.96 to 1 in NYSE & 1.69 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.13 to 1 in NYSE & 1.98 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 279 in NYSE & 318 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 2.57% @ 31.96

Oil @ $87.35

Gold @ $1829.70

Canadian $ @ .7399

Portfolio HST BTCC SNAP MGM NCLH RIOT UAL

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included NCLH

SLI AMAT AFRM MGA MU BMBL RCL SWKS

SCHW DKNG CSIQ INTC MSFT NXPI CRWD 

DDOG NVAX MRNA TER NVDA TSLA LRCX 

EXPE GOOG SLB JKS MA MS MGA V....

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, TAPE continued its weak close, a sign of bear market in making. I have a feel that this bear TAPE is no different than any bear market I have faced in last 5 decades, some last much longer than others, be prepared. I started investing @ the peak when DOW crossed 1000 for the first time, it was a straight down for many many years, changed country during that time from USA to Canada, finally it was over to 1987 euphoria then dropped 27% in one day, so please read bear market history, it may change most of your understanding about pain & suffering. I am only 50% invested for many weeks based on my feel of what is coming.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .19% to 2.28%.....

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 4356.45, low 4287.11, high 4411.01

RSI @ 25.81

CMF @ -0.120

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.26 to 1 in NYSE & 1.91 to 1 in Nasdaq

declining stocks led by 1.34 to 1 in NYSE & 1.52 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 219 in NYSE & 258 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 4.21% @ 31.16

Oil @ $85.60

Gold @ $1852.50

Canadian $ @ .7359

Portfolio HST BTCC SNAP MGM NCLH PLTR RIOT UAL

Stocks which closed green included NCLH UAL 

SLI APA SU TECK BYD SAVE RCL WYNN

PAAS CNQ CCL BIDU IBM PFE PENN DAL 

TD BMO CVX EXPE OXY SLB LNG MS.....

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, TAPE continued its weakness and closed in red. Internals were much better. Technology continues to be out of favor big time. Energy, base metals, Airlines & casinos seems to have pulse. This TAPE is giving me a strong feel that it wants to cut the recent lows and then only will find support.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .28% to .63%...NICE !!!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 4410.13, high 4417.35, low 4222.62

RSI @ 28.55

CMF @ -0.100

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.08 to 1 in NYSE & .86 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.49 to 1 in NYSE & 1.09 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 1086 in NYSE & 1734 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 3.64% @ 29.90, high today 38.94..new 52 wk high...

Oil @ $83.31

Gold @ $1841.70

Canadian $ @ .7310

Portfolio HST BTCC SNAP MGM NCLH PLTR RIOT UAL

Stocks which closed green today included MGM RIOT

APA CNX AMAT SPWR AFRM TJX MU LULU CRM

M ARKK BYD ROKU QCOM QRVO SWKS LAC PINS

RUN DKNG SNOW NXPI PENN DOCU ZI SHOP TOL

ZM ESTC DDOG KBH TER DHI PHM TWLO LRCX

SPLK OLED LVS OSTK ULTA ULTA CMG X....

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down

About market, TAPE was in a freefall with Dow down 1115 points and Nasdaq down 4.9%, by close all 3 major indices were green. Russell 2000 touched bear market by being down 20%. Internals were extremely negative with highest new lows reached 1700+. There is too much euphoria about today's reversal which may be premature as retest may be a given.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Is US stock market in a bear market ?

 IF you look @ chart of any US stock market indices / index, it is a clear picture of downtrend.

US stock market has not seen bear market since 2007 housing boom.......

SO it is 15 years since US stock market saw housing collapse and took to bear market low in 2009

everything saw its lowest level back then..

It is always good to look back @ history to find a comparable situation.....

Real comparison to this market lies in Y2K bubble.....when companies with no sales and no EPS were the darling of daytraders and institution.....

Similar situation happened with ARKK portfolio of so-called innovators & disruptors.....only thing they are disrupting is shareholders equity in ARKK....

Stay @ home became a ticket to recklessness in equity choices....

ZOOM  & ROKU among others became darling overnight for quadrupling in stocks....

NOW...every concept is crashing down to earth......

Lately energy stocks is being touted for $100+++ by none other than Goldman Sachs....

When bear market comes to wall street, everything comes to a very realistic valuation including energy stocks...

What I am really pointing out, there is nowhere to hide when equities take it into chin.....

SO....IF we have an oversold bounce, sell as much as you can and be very small ...so you can be stress free and can sleep well....

"TAPE is really messy "

Do not fight this TAPE...

FED is dealing with inflation...but equities are dealing with profitability which is going down & down...

All costs are jumping UP

EPS are coming down " fast and furious "

Remember freight cost, remember highest labor cost, remember higher commodity cost....inflation has given its verdict worldwide.....wake up fast

Rising input cost equals low low EPS.....

SO quit looking @ 10 year rate, they may have peaked BUT inflation is just getting warmed UP

Inflation may bring bear market as it directly affect earnings & buying power.....

Good luck with your own thesis and comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down 1.30% to 2.72%.....

 Indices closed down @ low of the day below critical support in all Indices. Nasdaq continues to be the leading indicator for this corrective action. Most other strong groups like energy, base metals took it on the chin, a sure sign all is not well.

S&P 500 @ 4397.94, low 4395.34, high 4494.52

RSI @ 26.91

CMF @ -0.179

Internals were :

Down volume led by 6.39 to 1 in NYSE & 5.30 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 4.26 to 1 in NYSE & 4.34 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 701 in NYSE & 1299 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 12.74% @ 28.85

Oil @ $85.14

Gold @ $1831.80

Canadian $ @ .7456

Stocks which closed green included

TJX GAN GILD NKE XLNX BYND

MCD LVS.....

Here is my portfolio weighting based on 47% exposure  :

HST       48.16%

UAL      19.62%

NCLH     9.44%

BTCC     8.02%

MGM     6.43%

SNAP     5.04%

RIOT     3.29%

Next post by 6 PM on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .89% to 1.30%.....

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 4482.73, low 4477.95, high 4602.11

RSI @ 31.59

CMF @ -0.072

Internals were :

Down volume led by 3.35 to 1 in NYSE & 1.91 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.75 to 1 in NYSE & 2.38 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 338 in NYSE & 652 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 7.30% @ 25.59

Oil @ $86.90

Gold @ $1842.60

Canadian $ @ .7534

Portfolio BTCC HST SNAP MGM NCLH RIOT UAL

Stocks which closed green included BTCC PLTR

XPEV FSLR SPWR JKS RUN NIO COIN SAVE

ROKU NVTA BIDU PINS LYFT MTCH PDD

JD ASML BABA EXPE FFIV SOFI ROKU

MA MS....

AH Futures Down

AH Asian markets Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, TAPE was strong whole day but reversed completely and closed @ low of the day, reason possibly option expiry on Friday. RSI @ 31.59 is in deeply oversold territory and should be bought in your well researched stocks. Patience & conviction near lows is key to long term gains.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .96% to 1.15%....

 Indices closed down

S&P 500 @ 4532.76, 4530.20, high 4611.55

RSI @ 34.92

CMF @ 0.034

Internals were :

Down volume led by 2.31 to 1 in NYSE & 2.07 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.06 to 1 in NYSE & 2.09 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 364 in NYSE & 742 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 4.65% @ 23.85

Oil @ $86.96

Gold @ $1843.20

Canadian $ @ .7494

In my portfolio :

Bought MGM @ $42.80

Added 20% BTCC.TO @ $8.53

Portfolio HST BTCC SNAP MGM NCLH RIOT UAL

Stocks which closed green included AFRM AG CCJ

TECK M BMBL PAAS CNQ DASH BIDU GOLD

MSFT PANW PENN NEM KL MTCH CRWD

PDD FB AEM SPLK NFLX SOFI JKS LVS 

TWTR SLI MS TOU.....

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, TAPE scared lot of traders by opening higher & closing @ low of the day, but we needed another day like this to flush out more bulls. There are lot of indicators which IS telling me that we have just about completed this correction. VIX was tame considering, Internals were not extreme, many stocks seems to have found support. Do not be surprised IF we close UP on Thursday.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down 1.51% to 2.60%....

 Indices closed down

S&P 500 @ 4577.11, low 4568.70, high 4632.24

RSI @ 38.23

CMF @ 0.106

Internals were :

Down volume led by 4.93 to 1 in NYSE & 2.64 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 5.52 to 1 in NYSE & 4.93 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 361 in NYSE & 729 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 18.76% @ 22.79

Oil @ $85.43

Gold @ $1812.40

Canadian $ @ .7459

Portfolio BTCC HST SNAP NCLH RIOT UAL

Stocks which closed green included CNX NTR

LULU TECK CNQ FCX PANW TD PDD CVX 

BMO SLV OXY LVS V.....

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down

About market, TAPE was under tremendous selling pressure with all Indices tumbling and closing near low of the day. Nasdaq was the weakest as money is coming out of this sector. Key technical levels were broken for all major indices. Energy fared much better as Oil reached 8 year high. Once Energy stocks corrects then this pullback should be over.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

US Stock market difficult to navigate.....

 US stock market has entered a phase which is extremely difficult to navigate.

Many cross currents exists

US stock market verdict is loud and clear....technology is not hot anymore, Energy & restart are in demand.

US stock market goes through these phase for an extended period of time.

XLE is an undisputed king of the pack now and sporting a RSI of 78.26 as of Friday's close, energy stocks are further higher in Toronto in today's trading...thus RSI is even more stretched...XLE is @ new 52 wk high and oil is further UP today although slightly which is 7 year high....

Since Energy stocks & Natural Gas stocks are so popular, everyone is piling in..which becomes scary in a way....but popularity can keep building on its own strength, strength begets more strength...Wall Street is known for excess beyond sanity....

How high energy & natural gas stocks will go, I have no idea.....but I a have booked my profit for now....

XLF financials are a distant number 2 in popularity with an RSI of 59.66.....

JETS or Airlines is number 3 in popularity with an RSI of 57.34

On the contrary Nasdaq is 2nd last / weakest in my universe with an RSI of 40.26

TAN Solar is the weakest with an RSI of 32.49

It is extremely difficult @ this stage how to position in US stock market, I suggest waiting few days / weeks to see how the sectors play out...this is exactly what I am forcing myself to do currently...why do I say forcing ?

Forcing because I knew for a long time that Energy will take off big time and it has....In Energy stocks I still do not see froth like ZOOM ROKU yet...thus it is difficult to contain my enthusiasm for Energy & Natural gas stocks.....

IF I see slight pullback in energy shares, I may get back in very quickly.....

SO navigate your portfolio with due diligence which is absolutely critical @ this juncture...

Go with the flow which is clearly redefined now.....

Good luck with your own understanding of what may work going forward...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed.....

 Indices closed mixed. Nasdaq closed higher while DOW was down 200 points. Internals were very weak. Oil Closed @ highest point in a year.

S&P 500 @ 4662.85, high 4666.13, low 4614.75

RSI @ 46.08

CMF @ 0.107

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.04 to 1 in NYSE & .73 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.63 to 1 in NYSE & 1.21 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 181 in NYSE & 606 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 5.51% @ 19.19

Oil @ $83.82

Gold @ $1816.50

Canadian $ @ .7448

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included RIOT SOL

APA CNX AMAT XPEV MRVL WYNN QCOM CNQ 

SCHW MSTR AMD SHOP DDOG LRCX OLED

OXY SLB JKS LVS....

In my portfolio :

Sold MGM @ $46.15 in pre-market

Sold SU.TO @ $35.17

Here is my portfolio weighting on 47% exposure :

HST        49.90%

UAL       21.67%

NCLH   10.64%

BTCC    7.80%

SNAP    5.88%

RIOT    4.13%

Next post by 6 PM on Monday, NYSE / Nasdaq closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr Day, world markets & Toronto is open on Monday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .49% to 2.51%.....

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 4659.03, low 4650.29, high 4744.13

RSI @ 45.62

CMF @ 0.021

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.34 to 1 in NYSE & 2.45 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.27 to 1 in NYSE & 2.24 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new highs were leading by 64 in NYSE & lows by 317 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 15.27% @ 20.31

Oil @ $82.12

Gold @ $1821.40

Canadian $ @ .7516

Portfolio BTCC HST MGM SNAP NCLH RIOT SU UAL

Stocks which closed green included HST NCLH UAL

MGA MU GE M JBLU SAVE TSM RCL CNQ AAL 

CCL IBM LYFT TOL DAL NTAP KBH BMO EAT

DHI PHM BA BYND EXPE JWN MA...

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil Down

AH Gold UP

About market, TAPE went into reverse and closed down near low of the day, Nasdaq slump took other indices down in sympathy. Many restart stocks were UP like Airlines & Cruise lines on good guidance from DAL. There is tremendous negativity for Nasdaq where predictions are running wild for a total 20% slump. Better diversification and weighting should help even IF it comes close to wild prediction.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .11% to .23%...NICE !!!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 4726.35, high 4748.83, low 4706.71

RSI @ 53.06

CMF @ 0.118

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.45 to 1 in NYSE & .87 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.26 to 1 in NYSE & .74 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new highs were leading by 93 in NYSE & lows by76 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 4.29% @ 17.62

Oil @ $82.64

Gold @ $1827.80

Canadian $ @ .7497

In my portfolio ..Sold AH CNX @ $15.88

Portfolio BTCC HST MGM SNAP NCLH RIOT SU UAL

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included BTCC CNX

APA AMAT XPEV LI NIO TSLA AG TECK LSPD TSM 

CNQ LAC FCX CLF BABA API LNG X.....

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, TAPE closed green but off their high of the day, Internals were mixed. Oil kept making new highs. Natural Gas jumped YTD 28.16% and 1 year gain of 57.54% quite impressive. Tech & Nat gas stocks were UP. TAPE was looking overbought near term.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .51% to 1.41%...NICE !!!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 4713.07, high 4714.13, low 4638.27

RSI 51.61

CMF @ 0.121

Internals were :

UP volume led by 4.22 to 1 in NYSE & 3.31 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 3.05 to 1 in NYSE & 2.21 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new highs were leading by 35 in NYSE & lows by 125 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 5.10% @ 18.41

Oil @ $81.22

Gold @ $1818.50

Canadian $ @ .7318

Portfolio BTCC CNX HST MGM SNAP NCLH RIOT SU UAL

Stocks which were UP 3% or more included MGM RIOT SNAP SU

SOL APA XPEV SPWR NIO AFRM HOOD PYPL LSPD TECK

COIN M TSM MRVL WYNN QCOM LAC MSTR DASH RUN

PINS AMD DKNG GAN DOCU ZI PDD JD PHM BA SPLK

BABA QS JWN OXY SLB LVS OSTK....

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE started weak then after Fed chief reconfirmation hearing market went straight UP as there was nothing but Fed is ready to tackle its mandate in his 2nd term. Nasdaq was strongest with technology & energy stocks in the lead, a strange combination. Oil reached its highest level of $81+++ which is music to energy stocks. Yes we have a confirmation of this reversal.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed....

 Indices closed mixed.

S&P 500 @ 4670.29, low 4682.24, high 4673.02

RSI @ 46.70

CMF @ 0.022

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.60 to 1 in NYSE & 1.10 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.04 to 1 in NYSE & 1.98 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 238 in NYSE & 653 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 3.41% @ 19.40, high 23.33

Oil @ $78.23

Gold @ $1798.80

Canadian $ @ .7318

Portfolio BTCC CNX HST MGM SNAP NCLH RIOT SU UAL

Stocks which closed green included CNX SNAP SU

SPWR CGC TLRY AG TECK SQ ARKK TSM ROKU 

TWTR PAAS DASH PINS PFE INTC LYFT GOLD

NEM ZI CIEN CRWD ESTC UBER DDOG KBH

NVAX SEDG MRNA PHM NVDA TSLA SPLK 

GOOG ORCL....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, Tape was under severe selling again which violated 200 DMA support in key indices but by end of the day reversal took place and Nasdaq closed in green and closed above 200 DMA. Internals were negative but improved. Technology stocks displayed its previous buying power from its dedicated crowd. The only question is " was this an oversold bounce ".....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

US stock market facing challenges....

 US stock market is going through major challenges in 2022.

Fed tapering @ fastest pace

Reduction of liquidity by Fed

Interest rates spiking UP

Inflation persists

Cost pressure in economy

Supply issues

Freight cost staying high

Omicron & other variant showing up in winter

Allocation shift by Money Managers

All of the above is creating huge uncertainty for " steady as she goes crowd "

Most traders are not adjusting to new trends as they are deeply entrenched in 2021 ideas

This shift in investing thesis is a major ones which may take lot more time for many to even understand where to focus.

Many sectors which has performed lately are already looking " overbought "

XLE & Energy is leading the pack with huge gains

The best Money Manager in Oil & Gas in Canada is Eric Nuttal who is showing a gain of 186% for 2021 far exceeding Cathi Wood famous 2020 gain of 140%..

According to Eric Nuttal party is just getting started, he sees multi year major gains as cost / cash flow ratio will explode with current Oil prices......look him up in Canada & on Bloomberg BNN network

Not only energy but gaming is going to be the big winner going forward

Hotels are going to be in top 5 gainers going forward, some are already making new 52 wk highs others are following suit.

SO for 2022 I strongly recommend overexposure in Energy, Gaming & Hotels as my top 3 

Yes you can follow other sectors like Airlines as 4th idea but stay with better run International carriers....

Most speculative is Cruise Lines which is taking much longer to get off the ground as variants keep taking toll and CDC not very friendly...

SO...I have highlighted 5 different reopen categories to be positioned in.....this may be long term ideas to stick with.....IF technology @ home can go UP 400% ...these may also surprise you in next 3 years.....

Good luck with your own strategy & comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .01% to .96%.....

 Indices closed down despite poor jobs creation. Interest rates spiked UP on their own take of strong economy. Technology stocks pulled back again & restart stocks were in vogue again, rotation is in full swing with new allocation & reallocation.

S&P 500 @ 4677.03, low 4662.74, high 4707.95

RSI @ 47.41

CMF @ 0.012

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.62 to 1 in NYSE & 1.01 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.01 to 1 in NYSE & .73 to 1 in Nasdaq

New lows were leading by 51 in NYSE & 231 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 4.33% @ 18.76

Oil @ $78.90

Gold @ $1797.40

Canadian $ @ .7355

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included HST NCLH UAL

SOL SPWR LI HOOD CGC CCJ GE TECK X JBLU SAVE

RCL CNQ AAL CCL SCHW FCX BIDU DKNG CSIQ 

DAL TD PDD JD NVAX CVX BMO BA BYND JKS

BABA EXPE OXY SLB ORCL......

In my portfolio Added 100% BTCC.U.TO @ $7.79

Here is my portfolio weighting :

MGM         27.04%

HST          24.88%

CNX         20.02%

UAL         10.77%

NCLH        5.06%

BTCC        3.71%

SU             3.36%

SNAP        3.14%

RIOT         2.03%

Next post by 6 PM on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .10% to .47%.....

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 4696.05, low 4671.26, high 4725.01

RSI @ 49.35

CMF @ -0.009

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.32 to 1 in NYSE & .97 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.07 to 1 in NYSE & .89 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 213 in NYSE & 522 in Nasdaq

VIX Down .61% @ 19.61

Oil @ $79.49

Gold @ $1789.20

Canadian $ @ .7269

Portfolio CNX HST MGM SNAP BTCC NCLH RIOT SU UAL

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included CNX MGM SU

APA PYPL CNQ DASH BIDU DKNG GAN PANW GOOS

CRWD PDD JD TER ASML BYND NVDA FB SPLK 

BABA OXY SLB LNG LVS.....

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE closed lower but it was not a bad session IF you were in Energy, gaming & select technology stocks, I will it a victory of some sort. It is all about jobs report @ 830 AM, it should be way better than expected, initial reaction to good jobs report may be fear of imminent hike in interest rates which may happen in 2, 5,10 & 30 year rates plus trigger happy initial selling which must be bought.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down 1.07% to 3.34%......

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 4700.58, low 4699.44, high 4797.70

RSI @ 49.81

CMF @ 0.033

Internals were :

Down volume led by 3.22 to 1 in NYSE & 3.62 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led 4.32 to 1 in NYSE & 4.18 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 2 in NYSE & 275 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 16.68% @ 19.73...high 20.00

Oil @ $77.85

Gold @ $1825.10

Canadian $ @ .7297

Portfolio CNX HST MGM SNAP BTCC NCLH RIOT SU UAL

Stocks which closed green included

SU SOL

CCJ TECK X CNQ

CLF IBM PFE INTC TD 

CVX BABA LNG....

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, TAPE was in a freefall after Fed released its minutes, Fed wants to accelerate tapering and more interest rate hikes coming this year starting March. Interest rates jumped to its highest level in 6 months. Technology stocks took it on the chin, DOW did not fare much better. It was sell sell in most sectors. This was an overreaction to a known trend from Fed, just a little faster.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed...

 Indices closed mixed.

S&P 500 @ 4793.54, low 4774.27, high 4818.62

RSI @ 60.35

CMF @ 0.138

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.86 to 1 in NYSE & .81 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.12 to 1 in NYSE & .70 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 151 in NYSE & 8 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 1.87% @ 16.91

Oil @ $76.99

Gold @ $1814.60

Canadian $ @ .7297

Portfolio CNX HST MGM SNAP BTCC NCLH RIOT SU UAL

Stocks which were UP 4% or more included CNX RIOT SU.TO

MGA CCJ APA SAVE LAC CLF FSR OXY SLB MS ULTA...

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil Down

AH Gold UP

About market, TAPE closed mixed with DOW making another new all time highs. Nasdaq & technology stocks were sharply lower again, a shift which is being noticed by diehard technology stocks traders and investors. Reopen stocks were strong as rotation in these stocks are gathering momentum. Energy stocks were strong again.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .64% to 1.20%...NICE !!!!

 Indices closed UP.

S&P 500 @ 4796.56, high 4796.64, low 4768.17

RSI @ 60.74

CMF @ 0.172

Internals were :

UP volume led by 2.06 to 1 in NYSE & 3.22 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.34 to 1 in NYSE & 2.28 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 68 in NYSE & 15 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 3.60% @ 16.60

Oil @ $76.08

Gold @ $1800.10

Canadian $ @ .7343

Portfolio CNX HST MGM SNAP BTCC NCLH RIOT SU UAL

Stocks which were UP 3% or more included NCLH UAL

SOL SPWR NIO HOOD PYPL CGC CCJ APA ACB

M JBLU TSM TRIP BMBL RCL WYNN AAL LAC

CCL AI RUN AMD INTC LYFT DOCU DAL BA

UBER TSLA OLED LTHM QS FSR OXY SLB

LVS MA.....

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE was strong and closed @ high of the day. DOW made another new all time high. Restart stocks were strong although IMICRON variant is running @ peak everywhere in the world. EV stocks also were strong. Lot of money flowed into equity as 2022 allocation.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

US stock market in 2021......

 It is important to look back @ US stock market in 2021.....

IF you look @ US Indices, they all performed well 20% +++ range

Of all the sectors Energy was UP in 40% range.....

IF you look @ commentary on CNBC and all pundits selections for 2021

you would have hardly heard of Energy stocks as a pick, actually it was always

downplayed ....

Some of the stat which came across, average performance of most Fund managers was barely UP 4%

Despite all the hoopla of few stocks after the fact, It was a challenging year for most participants.

The real question is , IF we have learned anything as we went through 2021 frenzied trading...why I do I say frenzied trading, look @ ZOOM, ROKU, MRNA, PELOTON...you will know what I am referring to.....

What I have learned with my 5 decades of trading....avoid fads and everything which you have trouble understanding and its metrics of valuation....thus was not part of frenzy @ all.

Slow & steady may not win the annual race on Wall Street, BUT you do not go crazy and lose more than one can chew....

Sanity & peace of mind is much more important than chasing any stock.....

YES..I practiced Patience, Strategy and my choice of stocks which was mostly out of favor

BUT I did not lose my sleep or got very tense in the process.

My bet has been energy & Casino solo stock MGM from day one to now...and did very well with those.

CNX my choice for energy in Nat gas sector has not performed to my expectations but staying the course .....

MGM definitely was my star performer till this day....holding into 2022...

Cruise lines and airlines worked well initially but has been a huge laggard in last 6 months, BUT staying the course .....

2021 was a very tough year specially in last 6 months when all theories were challenged 

Few talented traders were able to navigate with skills during last 6 months which is good for them in getting better results than averages.....

Looking ahead to 2022... is more important than looking back @ 2021 results......

NO 2 years are the same ever....

Again we may face a very challenging 1st half as we are extended in most indices....

All I can say, have a comfortable game plan where it is all about CONVICTION & PATIENCE and who knows things may work out better than expected....

It is very much a back to basics stock market...

Technicians failed miserably in their analysis of charts as major indices went straight UP with minor pullbacks.....

Good luck with your own strategy and home work.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem