Health update 2.....

 As you all were aware that I am under treatment by a very competent Cardiologist.

I am responding well to his treatment of 6 medications...

It has been Since November 17th that I was diagnosed with heart ailment.....

I have not only lost 40 pounds of weight in last 9 months mostly due to trauma of losing my " soulmate " of 56 years.....

BUT that trauma resulted in " heart condition & for the first time in my life, I was in Cardiac ward for 3 days......

YES..I am still much " weaker than before "

Heart condition has contributed big time to " losing strength " to do small chores in the house....which IS very disappointing knowing " how active I like to be "

YES...I have to control or minimize most " stress " so my health & heart can get more strength....

Part of that review did force me to think to cut back on my BLOG writing....

I started this BLOG in April of 2007.....in my 18th year now.....

Based on current health needs, I will only post when I sell something or buy something.....PLUS a weekly recap of Portfolio weighting with weekly gains / loss plus my view of US stock market....

All this on Sunday every week....

Hope this will be acceptable based on current health needs....

As always, It has been my utmost pleasure to write this BLOG and reply to all comments.....

I thank all daily visitors to this BLOG which was always a source of pride for me, sometimes there are 4000+++ daily visitors....

Thanks for all the reaction & messages, much much appreciated!

By the way added 30% RIOT @ $10.70.....rest remains unchanged....

Until Sunday.....the 5th January.....2025

Enjoy your Christmas & a very happy 2025!!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

US stock market " overvalued "......

 While everyone is celebrating last 2 years of stunning gains in US stock market.....there is lot to be concerned and worrying going forward.....

From any measurement US stock market is " the-most overvalued in the world"

US combined PE is a shocking 25.69

Canada combined PE is 18.21

China combined PE is 8.87

By the way, average PE of US in last 20 years has been 16.15.....

Currently in USA IT PE is 38.12......

Even in PEAK of Y2K bubble.....highest combined PE was around 24......vs current 25.69

To say the least.....

Current euphoria & frenzy has to come down in a hurry......

I am expecting an extremely tough 2025....where Indices may not exceed 4% gain  and that too by end of 2025.......

First half of 2025 could be down 12%.......

Never mind all the hoopla of ......

Trump

AI

Quantum 

Musk

Everything has been played out & priced IN......

Wall Street fools too many people quite often.....& everyone becomes a genius until they start losing hard earned money......

YES.....I will be reducing my exposure to only 25%....

That exposure may be to overweight in GDXJ & Bitcoin.....2 area to hide until all the froth is GONE....In case you have not noticed Ethereum or any other Crypto currencies have not made any new highs...only Bitcoin seems to be working......and making new all time highs.....

Bottom line....please pay attention to " current frothy sentiment "

Cannot last too long.....

Always be afraid of Wall Street antics, they keep reinventing " bubble under new packaging "

PE matters.....

Even AI has not shown any real impact yet...after 2 full years.....

Search is still very " tedious "

Too much AI fluff being highlighted as progress......

NVDA has turned south

TSLA could be next.....

AMD is @ lowest point.....

All this is a telltale of things " changing RAPIDLY "

All I can say....

Good luck to all OPTIMISTIC & FEARLESS traders......

Maybe its time to hit.....ULTRA CONSERVATIVE exposure

No more than 25%.....

Cash is always KING !!!!

Good luck with your own thesis about market & exposure......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS.....I am going on a quiet period for @ least 6 months.....

Last week Down 6.93%

YTD UP 67.63%

Saleem

Indices closed UP .94% to 1.18%...NICE !!!

 Indices closed UP .

S&P 500 @ 5930.85, high 5982.06, low 5832.30

Internals :

UP volume led by 4.71 to 1 in NYSE & 3.89 to 1 in Nasdaq    

Advancing stocks led by 2.84 to 1 in NYSE & 2.98 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 189 in NYSE & 411 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 23.79% @ 18.36

Oil @ $69.46

Gold @ $2647.90

Canadian $ @ .5643

Here is my weighting 

GDXJ      17.03%

MSFT      14.20%

AVGO     11.79%

AAPL      10.38%

MU          10.37%

CRM        9.13%

GOOG     8.90%

SMCI       8.08%

BTCC      6.98%

RIOT       3.14%

Next post by 6 PM on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed....

 Indices closed mixed from green open.

S&P 500 @ 5867.08, low 5866.07, high 5935.52

Internals :

Down volume led by 1.47 to 1 in NYSE & 1.24 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.18 to 1 in NYSE & 1.59 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 307 in NYSE & 701 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 12.78% @ 24.09

Oil @ $69.38

Gold @ $2607.50

Canadian $ @ .5628

Portfolio GOOG AAPL AVGO MU

MSFT BTCC CRM RIOT GDXJ SMCI...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell

Saleem

Indices closed down 2.58% to 4.39%....

 Indices closed down near low of the day in frenzied selling.

S&P 500 @ 5872.16, low 5867.79, high 6070.67

Internals :

Down volume led by 11.03 to 1 in NYSE & 2.44 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 9.48 to 1 in NYSE & 7.17 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 186 in NYSE & 473 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 74.04% @ 27.62

Oil @ $71.08

Gold @ $2653.30

Canadian $ @ .5659

Portfolio GOOG AAPL AVGO MU MSFT BTCC 

CRM QBTS ( AH $8.86) RIOT GDXJ SMCI

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .32% to 1.18%.....

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 6050.61, low 6035.19, high 6057.68

Internals :

Down volume led by 1.94 to 1 in NYSE & 1.07 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.78 to 1 in NYSE & 2.50 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 101 in NYSE & 244 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 8.03% @ 15.87

Oil @ $70.08

Gold @ $2663.30

Canadian $ @ .5682

Portfolio GOOG AAPL MU

MSFT BTCC CRM RIOT GDXJ SMCI....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem 

Indices closed mixed....

 Nasdaq closed @ new all time high.

S&P 500 @ 6074.08, high 6085.19, low 6059.14

Internals :

Down volume led by 1.66 to 1 in NYSE & .72 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.27 to 1 in NYSE & 1.02 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new highs were leading by 44 in NYSE & 102 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 6.37% @ 14.69

Oil @ $70.71

Gold @ $2670.00

Canadian $ @ .5765

Portfolio GOOG AAPL MU MSFT BTCC 

CRM TSLA RIOT GDXJ SMCI

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

US stock market in next 14 trading days.....

 Next 14 trading days should be very interesting.....for US stock market....

AI is in vogue

Quantum Chip is in vogue

Bitcoin is in vogue

Chip & Memory makers are in vogue

BUT....

NVDA is left way behind.....?????

Many Indices are testing support ???

Few key stocks are making daily new all time highs????

Sound confusing......

Definitely CONTRADICTORY action......

Such IS the stage in US stock market these days.....

SO.....you can sit back and be an observer of all this....

OR

You could be part of these contradiction based on your trading style.....

US stock market is changing

Many many technicians have NO CLUE as to WHY......

Few things are very close to reality, some stocks are going higher & higher on a daily basis....TREND is definitely UP......

SO....going forward...WILL REQUIRE an ALERT & QUICK RETAKE on entire trading FOCUS.....

Good luck with your own analysis of this TAPE & your comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed.....

 Indices closed mixed.....

S&P 500 @ 6051.09, low 6035.77, high 6078.58

Internals :

Down volume led by 1.91 to 1 in NYSE & 1.61 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 2.23 to 1 in NYSE & 2.08 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new lows were leading by 41 in NYSE & 120 in Nasdaq

VIX Down .79% @ 13.81

Oil @ $71.11

Gold @ $2678.50

Canadian $ @ .5755

Here is my portfolio weighting :

MSFT       16.00%

TSLA        12.14%

AAPL       11.11%

CRM        10.34%

SMCI       10.26%

GDXJ       9.82%

GOOG      9.73%

MU           8.65%

BTCC       8.11%

RIOT        3.84%

Next post by 6 PM on Sunday

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed lower by .53% to 1.38%.....

 Indices closed lower some @ absolute low of the day.....

S&P 500 @ 6051.25, low 6051.25, high 6079.68

Internals :

Down volume led by 2.64 to 1 in NYSE & 1.21 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 3.10 to 1 in NYSE & 3.16 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new highs were leading by 23 in NYSE & lows by 21 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 2.5% @ 13.92

Oil @ $70.02

Gold @ $2705.20

Canadian $ @ .5818

Bought GOOG AAPL TSLA, MORE MSFT

Portfolio GOOG AAPL MU MSFT

BTCC CRM TSLA RIOT SMCI.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed.....

 Indices closed mixed while Nasdaq made a new all time closing  high of 20,034.90....

S&P 500 @ 6084.19, high 6092.59, low 6060.15

Internals :

UP volume led by .96 to 1 in NYSE & 1.04 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.27 to 1 in NYSE & 1.39 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new highs were leading by 157 in NYSE & 342 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 4.23% @ 13.58

Oil @ $70.29

Gold @ $2756.40

Canadian $ @ .5870

Sold GDXJ

Portfolio MU MSFT BTCC CRM RIOT SMCI

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .30% to .42%.....

 Indices closed down.

S&P 500 @ 6034.91, low 6029.89, high 6065.40

Internals :

Down volume led by 2.12 to 1 in NYSE & 1.53 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.88 to 1 in NYSE & 1.89 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new highs were leading by 75 in NYSE & 110 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 0.07% @ 14.18

Oil @ $68.59

Gold @ $2718.40

Canadian $ @ .5844

Sold TSLA

Portfolio MU MSFT BTCC CRM GDXJ RIOT SMCI

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .54% to .67%.....

 Indices closed near low if the day.

S&P 500 @ 6052.85, low 6048.63, high 6088.51

Internals :

UP volume led by 1.13 to 1 in NYSE & 1.39 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by .80 to 1 in NYSE & .77 in Nasdaq

Net new highs were leading by 181 in NYSE & 468 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 11.12% @ 14.19

Oil @ $68.37

Gold @ $2688.40

Canadian $ .5874

Bought TSLA & MU

Portfolio MU MSFT BTCC CRM TSLA GDXJ RIOT SMCI

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

US stock market in 2025......

 There is give & take 15 trading days left in 2024.....

2024 has been a clear cut win for leaders in each sector

2nd tier & 3rd tier got no chance to breathe as leaders jumped several 100% from its low

Many traders did not adopt to new strategies and were always trading in their comfort zone

Nothing wrong in trading in anybody's comfort zone as long as you are @ least close to market gains...BUT to lag badly needs a " serious review of your strategy.....

2024 was very easy to make money as many stocks displayed a well defined trading pattern.....which was begging to take advantage of......

Wall Street keeps changing and old formula's do not work in each bull run

Not every bull market " lifts all boat "

This is exactly where we get caught in our strategy...

It IS extremely important to " read the message of the market "

BUT we try to " tell market what to do "

Time & Money waits for nobody

Every moment / day we waste in NOT listening to market, we lose precious advantage in market...

Fast forward to 2025.....

Do you think that 2025 market will be like 2024 ?

I do NOT believe so

It will be a totally different market.....

Again you have to " closely monitor message of the market "

Can you imagine IF you misread message of the market AGAIN in 2025..... that will be a huge underperformance 2 years in a row.....which none of us can afford

SO...be extremely alert to any & all changes in 2025 game plan....

Making money is NOT all about TA which experienced traders rely on.....like 2024, 2025 will be about FA.....YES...Fundamental analysis......

I think that is " enough focus for those who are " too rigid " in their past expertise.....

Time keeps changing & Strategy needs adapting....

Good luck with your own focus & comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed.....

 Only DOW was red, rest made a new all time closing highs....

S&P 500 @ 6090.27, high 6099.97, low 6079.98

Internals :

UP volume led by .89 to 1 in NYSE & 1.45 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by .99 to 1 in NYSE & 1.32 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new highs were leading by 256 in NYSE & 694 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 5.69% @ 12.77

Oil @ $67.20

Gold @ $2656.70

Canadian $ @ .5850

Here is my portfolio weighting :

GDXJ       28.65%

SMCI       21.63%

CRM        18.49%

BTCC      14.16%

MSFT      10.40%

RIOT       6.67%

Next post by 6 PM on Sunday!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed down .17% to 1.25%.....

 Indices closed near low of the day on upcoming jobs report before open.

S&P 500 @ 6075.11, low 6072.90, high 6094.55

Internals :

Down volume led by 1.19 to 1 in NYSE & .90 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.25 to 1 in NYSE & 1.59 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new highs led by 304 in NYSE & 686 in Nasdaq

VIX UP .67% @ 13.54

Oil @ $68.30

Gold @ $2653.50

Canadian $ @ .5959

Sold CMG, SHOP, NVDA, TSLA & BTCC price & time details on previous page.

Portfolio GDXJ MSFT CRM SMCI

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed UP .61% to 1.30%..NICE !!!!

 DOW, S&P 500 plus Nasdaq all closed @ new all time highs.

S&P 500 @ 6086.49, high 6089.84, low 6061.06

Internals :

UP volume led by .74 to 1 in NYSE & 1.57 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.26 to 1 in NYSE & 1.38 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new highs were leading by 296 in NYSE & 935 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 1.13% @ 13.45

Oil @ $68.54

Gold @ $2652.14

Canadian $ @ .5925

Bought CRM.NE @ $28.79 in Toronto

Bought BTCC.TO @ $17.70

Portfolio CRM MSFT NVDA SHOP CMG GDXJ TSLA BTCC

SMCI....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed....

 Indices closed mixed with all time closing highs in Nasdaq & S&P 500.

S&P 500 @ 6049.88, high 6052.07, low 6033.39

Internals :

Down volume led by 1.33 to 1 in NYSE & .99 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.24 to 1 in NYSE & 1.39 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new highs were leading by 260 in NYSE & 635 in Nasdaq

VIX Down .30% @ 13.30

Oil @ $69.94

Gold @ $2665.80

Canadian $ @ .5929

Sold AAPL.NE @ $35.40

Portfolio MSFT NVDA SHOP CMG GDXJ SMCI TSLA

BLOG does not give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices closed mixed....

 Indices closed mixed.

S&P 500 @ 6049.15, high 6053.58, low 6035.33

Internals :

Down volume led by 1.64 to 1 in NYSE & .91 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.08 to 1 in NYSE & .99 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new highs were leading by 342 in NYSE & 796 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 1.26% @ 13.34

Oil @ $68.10

Gold @ $2658.00

Canadian $ @ .5923

Sold 51% SMCI.NE @ $13.50 in Toronto

Portfolio AAPL MSFT NVDA SHOP CMG GDXJ TSLA SMCI

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell

Saleem 

US stock market has last 20 trading days......

 2024 has come and ready to leave, we have only 20 trading day's left.

Normally @ this stage, it  is very good to review....

What went right

What went wrong

IF you deal with right & wrong in a specific, pointed & detailed manner, then only this exercise is worth it..

BUT IF your are going to sum it up in " one liner "

Then you have not taken this analysis seriously enough to benefit your strategy for 2025, it will be the same set of mistakes in 2025....

Making money on Wall Street is never easy in best of times...

2025 is expected to be more challenging than 2024....

Winners of 2025 will be the best of best....

AI will be in " overdrive "

Data security very important

Bitcoin should be much higher

Even Gold has pulse again

Uranium will benefit from electricity needs

SO....as you do your own homework for 2025 pay attention to Fundamental Analysis with more focus...

Good luck with your own take of how & why 2024 ended the way it did and hopefully a better 2025.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem