Monday, December 16, 2013

Indices closed UP .63% to .82%....NICE !!!!

Indices closed UP on positive economic news.

S&P 500 @ 1786.54, high 1792.22

RSI @ 51.38

CMF @ -0.127

Internals were :

UP volume led by 2.80 to 1 in NYSE & 2.94 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 2.00 to 1 in NYSE & 2.17 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 34 in NYSE & 73 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 1.71% @ 16.03

Oil @ $97.48

Gold @ $1244.40

Stocks which closed green included FB JKS AUY
BBRY TRIP SLW GG EXPE AMZN AAPL 
GOOG TSL CSIQ FSLR EBAY YUM
LVS FFIV MA ARUN RVBD MCD
SNDK AMCC JDSU PANW Z
GMCR CSOD GS....

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, TAPE was quite resilient after four down days. Fed starts its meeting on Tuesday with a statement by 2 PM on Wednesday. Expectations are now shifting towards January taper resulting in positive close today. I am expecting TAPE to remain positive all week in anticipation of January taper. Monthly / weekly option expiry is another catalyst favoring bullish momentum.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .74% to .96%.....NICE !!!!

News of  better economic activity is giving reassurance to traders that Fed future action on taper is the right course.

S&P 500 @ 1788.90, high 1792.22

Internals are positive by 2 to 1

Oil UP 96 cents

Gold UP $9.50

Canadian $ Down 4 tick @ 94.44

VIX UP .57% @ 15.85....that is a surprise ?

In my portfolio :

Sold QIHU @ $79.31

Bought 10 contract FB option @ 42 cents strike $56 expiring this Friday.

Portfolio FB options JKS RALY SINA AUY

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.04 following are red :

FB RALY SINA QIHU LULU BIDU MU
TSLA NFLX MS KORS TWTR CMG
LNKD KOG COH CRUS X EGO
AEM JCP WUBA TRLA.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Taper of $10 Billion or $25 Billion ?

TAPE is weak & struggling with Fed upcoming decision on taper....

IF Fed decides to cutback by $10 Billion we may see a relief rally.....

IF Fed decides to cutback by $25 billion we may go well below 50 DMA in indices.....

Whole world markets have their eyes on Fed decision......

TAPE has been weak & making lower lows which is not healthy....

By 2 PM on Wednesday markets may have made lows for this pullback.

It is OK to buy on weakness which has been ongoing since last week of October 2013...we are exactly where we were last week of October.

This Friday is also option expiry which may bring more volatility...

Doing nothing ahead of Fed or Option Expiry is an OK strategy also......let the uncertainty be out of the way.

Many stocks have hit recent lows & may be ripe for a trade.

TWTR has proven once again that so called pundits have no clue when they "bad mouth" certain stock or IPO.

Solar stocks have pulled back substantially & may be ready to move again.

Chinese Internet stocks are stable & may be getting ready for a move UP.

Gold & Gold stocks are looking washed out & may outperform in 2014.....

SO...it is a week to rethink & reposition for 2014......

Making money is a combination of Science ( technical), Art ( fundamental) & luck ( timing)...sometimes luck plays a significant role .......

Good luck with your strategy which may or may not include above mentioned approach, some of you just do $ cost averaging which beats all strategy.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, December 13, 2013

Indices closed mixed.....

Indices closed mixed in anticipation of upcoming Fed decision on Taper.

S&P 500 @ 1775.32, low 1772.45

RSI @ 45.85

CMF @ -0.083

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.08 to 1 in NYSE & 1.21 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.31 to 1 in NYSE & 1.48 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 57 in NYSE & highs leading by 20 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 1.31% @ 15.76

Oil @ $96.60

Gold @ $1234.60

Canadian $ @ 94.47

Stocks which closed green included JKS QIHU AUY
MGA MU EXPE FB TSLA AMZN MS SNDK
TWTR YUM LVS MA V GMCR CIEN X
PANW MMCD AEM SPWR CSOD 
BBRY TRLA Z WYNN AGU.....

Here is my portfolio weighting :

SINA 32.58%

JKS  30.85%

QIHU 14.42%

RALY 12.85%

AUY  9.30%

Exposure 130%

Next post by 2 PM on Sunday

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Indices closed down .14% to .66%.....

Indices closed near lows again.

S&P 500 @ 1775.50, low 1772.28

RSI @ 46.93

CMF @ -0.021

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.40 to 1 in NYSE & 1.27 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.39 to 1 in NYSE & 1.07 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 237 in NYSE & 4 in Nasdaq

VIX UP .78% @ 15.54

Oil @ $97.50

Gold @ $1224.90

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, S&P 500 made lower lows of 1772.28 vs 1779.09 seven trading days ago. Today internals were all in negative which means a deeply oversold condition. We should move UP from here as we have discounted tapering. i expect tapering to start in January 2014. Hopefully Fed will confirm all that next week. We may rally in anticipation of January tapering vs much feared December tapering. VIX gave me a signal today that we are ready to rally as per my afternoon BLOG.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices mixed.....

Indices are mixed & is off the lows, worry remains what Fed will do about Taper.

S&P 500 @ 1780.02, low 1772.28

Internals are mixed

Oil UP 19 cents

Gold Down $30.90

Canadian $ Down 52 tick @ 93.92

VIX UP .32% @ 15.47, looks like it has reached its peak today @ 16.09...looks bullish for equities...

Portfolio JKS QIHU RALY SINA AUY

Most stocks are down

@ 2.24 following are green :

JKS QIHU SINA KOG MU EXPE FB TSLA AMZN
NFLX LUV MS KORS AAPL TWTR TSL
YHOO CSIQ CMG LNKD YNDX C
FSLR GRPN SPLK SBUX X SU
WUBA TRLA Z GS YELP...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Indices closed down .81% to 1.40%......

Indices went into a freefall & closed near low of the day.

S&P 500 @ 1782.22, low 1780.09

RSI @ 48.80

CMF @ 0.052

Internals were :

Down volume led by 6.67 to 1 in NYSE & 4.59 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 4.13 to 1 in NYSE & 3.39 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 116 in NYSE & highs by 10 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 10.86% @ 15.42%

Oil @ $97.44

Gold @ $1257.20

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, IBD tonight has changed its market outlook to "market uptrend under pressure". TAPE was extremely weak & internals were weakest in a long time, this does not bode well for health of this TAPE.I expect continued selling on Thursday.This could be serious in terms of correction, S&P 500 had the lowest close since November 20th, 2013. Unless we get clarity on taper from Fed this TAPE may remain under pressure.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem