Sunday, May 20, 2007

OE & Solar stocks ???

Fridays OE played HAVOC with all solar stocks.

Most of the damage was done in the week of OE.

The following is a breakdown of Solar downdraft using HIGHS & intraday LOW of friday:

ESLR H $13.21 IDL $8.68 Down $4.53 <34.20%>

TSL H $68.90 IDL $51.03 Down $17.87 <25.99%>

JASO H $28.88 IDL $22.50 Down $6.38 <22%>

SPWR H $62.50 IDL$51.72 Down $10.78 <17.2%>

STP H $40.49 IDL $34.01 Down $6.48 <16%>

FSLR H $72.48 IDL $62.31 Down $10.17 <14%>

What is the above TAPE telling US ????

OE manipulation ?
Froth in this sector ?
Margin Pressure ?
HIGH BETA ?
Finding Support for next LEG UP ?

It is interesting to note that only STP & FSLR had GREEN CMF.

STP is reporting earning on May 29 before open.

There is a very POSITIVE report dubbed "Sun Shines On Clean Energy" on monday's IBD which highlights STP in a very positive manner...citing their manufacturing expertise which controls breakage to 1/3 compared to other manufacturer of solar panel.

STP is dealing with all of the above question marks by IMPROVING their manufacturing YIELDS which IMPROVES margins.

STP also is the Sales leader............so what they lose in terms of margin pressure ie Silicone Wafer prices which is contractually going lower for STP in Q2.....they more than make it UP in higher Sales.

FSLR insider sales has started because of lockup expiry so it may be under pressure for a while.....

TSL is offering secondary 5.4 million ADS as per IBD which will dilute EPS and float will increase dramatically.TSL ER is before open monday 15 cents is the consensus.

STP manufacturing cost will not go higher as it is based in China & work with Chinese Machinery plus with Chinese labour......because of YUAN revaluation...locally there is no change....those who get 1000 yuan in salary will still get 1000 yuan irrespective of how many Yuan buys a US$.

STP majority of Sales are in europe and Euros have been gaining against US$...so advantage again STP......

STP reports all Sales & EPS in US$ which has a POSITIVE conversion from Euros & Yuan when converted into US$.

So all in all I am looking quite OPTIMISTICALLY in my position in STP...............OE manipulation notwithstanding.

Please do your OWN due diligence..........my OPINION reflects my BIAS for owning STP in my portfolio.

BLOG does not give BUY or SELL.

Saleem

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