Now that wed is the last day to trade for 2007......
Let us look back and see what happened in the past year.......
If you would have bet on shorting Nasdaq with a QID......you bought @ $55 and ending the year @ $36.44 a loss of $18.56 per share...a 33.7% loss per share.....
Shorting does have Sex appeal...but it is PAINFUL most of the time......
But if you would have bought the following @ start of the year ...guess what $$$$$
RIMM was @ $40.... and now @ $117.98 ....a gain of $77.98 per share or a gain of 194.9% per share.....
I did NOT catch all of the GAIN in RIMM but caught everything from $54 onwards......not bad for a 62 year old trader and still holding.......
AAPL was $82 ...and now $198.80....a gain of $116.80 per share or a gain of 142.4% per share....
I missed most of the AAPL run till $165 but got it all since...still holding......
Why I am highlighting these two stocks ????
We all try very hard to make some money year over year......but most fail to make a big DENT in their performance...WHY ?????
Because we are looking for a home -run overnight.......there is NO such thing...if you factor all the strike-out......
So...what can you learn from the above 3 example.......?????
There are some very good stocks who will perform better than market...most of the time year after year......
So Why NOT put 50% of your trading $ into those Solid stocks and leave them ALONE for 12 months......
I am ALMOST certain that they will beat any system you are trying to follow.......bar NONE !!!!
So for 2008 instead of going for FAD & trading like "drunken sailor" try something more sobering......Calm down & place your bet for the year $$$$$
This way you can keep your other 50% $$$ in high yielding money market funds...and manage your $$ in a more sane manner......
This way ...you can devote your time to more important things...like work,family,gardening,car maintenance & other things which needs your precious time !!!!!!
Life is NOT suppose to be this complicated...but we go out of the way to make it painful......why mostly because of GREED !!!!
There is NO need to keep UP with JONES of the world.......
Create your own world of peace,tranquility & harmony !!!!!!
Good luck on your OWN due diligence.
I am always here to answer any question.... to help you on your way to the promise land.
Good luck for 2008!!!!
Saleem
11 comments:
Salam Saleem,
How true and sobering!!! But greed which is based on possibly hurting one's self is not as bad as the greed which involves hurting others. So much for philosophy on Tuesday morning. I would appreciate your advice on AOB..Solid company on paper, lousy stock performance...what do u think? thanks in advance
Walakum As Salaam,
AOB.....I have followed for a long long time.....break even on all trades and gave up.
Strictly on Chart....it is looking very good after making double bottom & trnding UP to challenge its 50 DMA resistance @ $11.86....
IF I have to take a GUESS...it will go through that resistance....
GREED IS GOOD !!!(movie wall street)
Saleem
Saleem,
I agree with your 2008 investment strategy. As you know, I held AAPL throughout 2007. My first purchase of AAPL was in 2006, around $65 per share. My last purchase was at $127. My cost average is $84. Currently 42.16% of my portfolio is AAPL. Did AAPL have a few bumps in the road along the way?...Yes.. but I held because I did my due dilligence by: reading many investment web pages and other new media, regarding AAPL marketing, product and financial data, going to AAPL stores and observing what AAPL had to offer and customer activity, and talking to my kids and their friends, regarding AAPL products. Although I am not a computer/ipod/electronics expert, I do know enough to understand what AAPL is and what their trying to accomplish. In other words I had a comfort level in my investment.
Probably my biggest investment failures, or should we say "lessons learned", were when I have put investment money in stocks of companies that I do not understand. Most of these were in "high flying" biotech stocks. I usually don't understand what their doing and have decided to invest in them hoping for the "homerun", when all I usually received was a big strikeout!!
For 2008, I will most likely continue to hold AAPL, as I believe the stock will continue its upward move throughout the year. The company has over $15 billion dollars in cash, cash equivalents and short term investments, increasing market share in its computer products, and it IPOD, ITOUCH, and IPHONE... products continue to updated and improved. AAPL does not rest on their past achievements. I just don't know of a better run, better financed company at this time. Based on current information, I see no reason why the stock price couldn't increase another 25% - 50%from current levels [However, as we all know there is nothing in life that is guaranteed].
I have learned a lot from both my investment gains and losses during 2007. I plan to use this to my advantage in 2008.
2008 GOAL - 50% increase in portfolio value:
I plan to hold AAPL through 2008; thus earning 35% on what may become 50% of my portfolio. Next with the help of Saleem and fellow bloggers, I will add a few other gems, and keep my losses on the inevitable selection of "losers" to a minimum.
For 2007, it appears that I will have increased the value of my portfolio by the end of the year by 30% - 45%. Currently, I am at 35.58%.
I believe with what I have learned during 2007, my 50% goal is achievable. Saleem, I hope you and all the contributing bloggers achieve the same or maybe even more success!!
Hope the rest of this year is successful for all and 2008 is even better!!
Bruce
Hi Bruce,
Very well put together.
Every year brings new set of challenges....
Peter Lynch always believed in buying what you understand..so does Warren Buffett....
I lost BIG in one biotech UBS....had 5000 shares & took a bath....never touched that biotech beast again.....
With BLOG & comments from helpful contributors like you....we will weather any storm QUICKLY....
Good luck on your plan for 2008...it is all in FA & TA.
Saleem
Saleem,
As a follow-up to my previous psoting today supporting my opinion on AAPL...A recent posting at CNBC.
21 hours ago
Apple's iPhone: Great -- or Greatest?
Posted By:Jim Goldman
Topics:Wireless Communications | Information Technology | Internet | Technology
Sectors:Software and Computer Services | Software | Telecommunications | Internet | Technology
Companies:Palm Inc | Research in Motion Limited | Apple Inc
Apple shares are closing in on $200 per share, as speculation grows that iPhone sales are far better than anyone anticipated.
There are rumors all over the web that Apple Apple IncAAPL
198.8 UNCH 0% NASDAQ
Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
[AAPL 198.8 --- UNCH (0%) ] will announce staggering handset unit sales at Macworld next month. And while I fully anticipate strong numbers, I'm a little skeptical that they'll measure up to some of the wild estimates making the rounds.
9to5mac.com, for one, suspects Apple will announce 5 million iPhones sold so far at Macworld. The site adds that, "If that's true, it would put Apple at half of its 2008 sales goal before 2008 even starts."
The site goes on to suggest such huge numbers would mean that "despite Apple only selling one model of GSM iPhone in four countries with four dedicated carriers, Apple's shipments in this quarter -- around 3.5 million -- will be very close to the 3.9 million Blackberry smartphones Research In Motion Research In Motion LtdRIMM
117.98 UNCH 0% NASDAQ
Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
[RIMM 117.98 --- UNCH (0%) ] shipped in its most recent quarter across more than 100 carriers and 13 product lines."
Live Vote
Will Apple's iPhone become the best-selling handset of all time?
Yes, of course
No, it's popular but not a category-killer
Too soon to tell
Don't know
Vote to see results
Live Vote
Will Apple's iPhone become the best-selling handset of all time? * 1386 responses
Yes, of course
77%
No, it's popular but not a category-killer
9.5%
Too soon to tell
12%
Don't know
1.4%
Not a scientific survey. Click to learn more. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.
To say that outlook is optimistic is a dramatic understatement, and if true, it would blow past the most bullish estimates on the Street.
Piper Jaffray says the 5 million number would be mean a huge jump in handset sales during the December quarter. Piper is modeling 2 million units sold. This 5 million unit figure would mean something closer to 3.6 million units. That's a long shot. Gene Munster tells me this morning, "The phone is selling well, but not that well."
As for the rest of 2008, Piper does anticipate a 3G version of iPhone by June as I have previously written, and also suggests that if that happens, and the price still hovers at $300, the Apple could overtake RIM's Blackberry as the best-selling high-end smart phone on the market.
That'd be some trick for a product that's so brand new to the marketplace. But all this suggests that Apple's strong move today may come from investors looking ahead to another robust product pipeline from Apple in 2008. I've written about what my sources have told me about the new sub-notebook coming -- which should be unveiled at Macworld. Now we're hearing rumblings about ongoing, strong sales of the iPhone.
We'll see what Apple does with iPod.
Macworld is a Mac-centric event, sure. But the company took the wraps off iPhone at the last one. That could mean a nice iPhone update this time around. It's due for one: revised sales figures, new markets (China?) and new capabilities all would be big news for the Mac faithful. And the company's shareholders. Strap in, folks: This could be a very happy new year indeed for Apple.
Hi Bruce,
Nice supporting info on AAPL.
Saleem
Saleem,
I've SO appreciated your blog. After 13 years of being away from financial markets I dove back in this last August. A host of inner demons have cropped up since starting to invest again and your blog has helped to tame them.
Saleem, could you tell me what you think of FCSX? I don't "get" commodities but I do "get" volatility and this is supposed to be a play on continued and heightened volatility in those markets. Also in the solar area, how do you view LDK now? I had YGE but sold the day LDK announced earnings and am anxious about getting back into YGE at these levels.
Lastly, what moves the shipping stocks? I bought DRYS at $74 and am curious what informs your decision about when/if to look at bulk shippers again. Stockcharts has it headed back down to $56, but Robert Hsu has it rated a buy since $117.
Any thoughts on SVA? I sold when they announced earnings recently, but am tempted once again.
Happy holidays to you. I love having someone's portfolio results to celebrate - even though it's not mine. It gives me hope!!
Also I've found more peace of mind since taking your advice about the importance of conviction and avoiding MBs.
Beatrice
Hi Beatrice,
Thanks for your interest in my BLOg & appreciation of some key message.
FCSX looks very strong technically.
www.stockcharts.com has atarget of $74.....
Based on RSI...taking profit @ $55 may not be a bad idea...as it will get overbought @ that point...that is just a trader talk.....
If you want to hold a year then you can hope for a much better return.
Shipping stocks are out of favour currently....due to sector rotation.
LDK is undervalued...YGE needs some rest based on RSI....
Whole solar sector needs a rest...so I am completely out of solar stocks now.....
SVA technically looks OK...and may go higher.....
Always suggest 4 to 5 stocks @ a time in different strong sector...to deal with volatility.
Welcome back to the euphoric world of investing/trading.
Hot sector focus is important...that is how money is OPTIMIZED.
Good luck,
Saleem
Good Morning Saleem, I was wondering if you think RIMM might be one of those stocks to hold in 2008? I know that you used it as an example for great gains in 2007 and Im thinking about holding for a while. What do you think about RIMM 2008 outlook? Thanks in advance for your feedback. Doug...
Hi Doug,
RIMM & AAPL are both the-stock to hold in 2008.
By the end of the year...REWARD should be there.
I am holding BOTH.
Good luck on your reassessment for 2008.
Saleem
Beatrice and SALEEM
Beatrice asked: Lastly, what moves the shipping stocks? I bought DRYS at $74 and am curious what informs your decision about when/if to look at bulk shippers again. Stockcharts has it headed back down to $56, but Robert Hsu has it rated a buy since $117. DSX is my curret big bet in the shipping industry. The DRYS are hurting right now because CHINA is sick and tired of paying huge rate increases. They are fighting back against the Dry shi[pers and rates are falling off as a result, however the oil shippers are doing great look at FRO and NAT. Because DRYS has a decnet dividens and is the most prestigeous dry shipper it rose the highest in share price and fell the hardest. According to some investment nes letters the drys are way undersold. This also my opinion, and I am sticking to it a great long term investment and IMHO collect 5-15% divi and reep a stock price move too!
Good luck and look at the oil tankers too.
Madmax
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