Markets were all green @ close.......
Nasdaq lagged the other indices.......
Nasdaq internals were also flattish compared to NYSE which were decidedly strong.
All eyes are all set for fed to cut rates by 25 basis and discount by 50 basis.....
Markets will respond well as long as Fed commentary is highlighting RISK to the economy.....
What a day in solar land......UP ,UP & UP was the order of the day for everything I monitor $$$
In my portfolio :
AGU,AAPL & RIMM were RED......
But.....the superstar in my show was LDK UP a whopping $13.06...on a major 10 year deal with the second largest Solar company in the world....Q-Cell based in Germany...which is the biggest Solar market also......
So...what is the near term target for LDK...
According to www.stockconsultant.com it is $67.53 for traders.......
According to www.schaeffersresearch.com analysis of todays option activity...LDK has a very good chance of clearing old HIGH of $76.75......
I am with scenario TWO..........
My conclusion is based on FA...Q-Cell prepaying 10% and being prepared to buy upto 30% of production of Wafers from LDK is a MAJOR support for LDK business......Q-Cell was flying on this news on DAX.........
As I always analyze..... Market environment first...which is extremely positive NOW...most stocks are trending UP......vs negative market environment before....when stocks were trending DOWN......I am staying very concentrated in my portfolio...over-diversification is NOT a good idea.......
With todays closing....My total EQUITY gain for 2007 have exceeded my previous-best for the year by far.... achieved on Oct 10th of this year...with lot less money exposed to the market......& I thank my good fortune for that......
This accomplishement is also "unbelievable...because I HAVE pulled 131 % of what I put in the market on Jan 1......which means that not only I have pulled all my money out...but a further 31 % also taken out......so my current portfolio is not only is house money but...even 31% of house money is taken out"......
My portfolio was UP 5% today....plus I will get something from my short CAD....which I will know exact amount in AM when my account is updated.....Canadian $ was down 27 tick......
I can assure you all ...that I never had a success in market like this EVER......and ever goes back to 41 years........
The only thing that I do different is.....I do NOT follow what analyst or CNBC is shoving down our throat...Mad Money & Fast Money included......just follow my instinct based on FA & TA...which I call intuition 101......& have CONVICTION unless market sentiment changes...then I adjust very quickly !!!
Good luck for tuesday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
16 comments:
congrats saleem for LDK. CONGRATS for year performance. good things happen always to nice people.
I did not follow you. I did not purchase LDK. I was worried more about legal issue. As I said before i don't know how to do FA. I picked some JASO, FCX, AAPL today morning. what's your opinion on AGU new share offer. is it going to kill the momentum ? I will try to pick small amount of LDK if possible tomorrow. what do you say ?
RAM
Saleem,
Up 4.24% today. Like you, LDK was my superstar today. However, I am also very pleased with VMW today (up 5.14%) and plased with BIDU and JEC each up nearly 2%.
Have and 7% of portfolio in RIMM. What are your thoughts on RIMM for the near term? I believe earnings are December 20, 2007. Price action has been minimal over the past few trading days ($100ish - $104ish)
Bruce
Hi Ram,
AGU is doing the right thing.Their purchase of UAP is accretive.
LDK is a volatile stock...so you must be ready for volatility.
JASO,FCX & AAPL are fine pick.
Please continue to read my analysis or comments about stocks ...they are all FA.
Thanks for your nice comment.
Saleem
Hi Bruce,
I am also not happy with lethargic tape of RIMM.....
Major support is between $97 to $100.....so far so good..as it is holding.....
If it goes below $97...I am out in nano second.....
I am very happy that VMW was super-strong...depending on your purchase price....in fed rally you may want to take profit in VMW....$100 area looks like resistance ...
ps...RIMM better move in fed rally...or I may exit my position...so by wed close should give both of us as to what is going on...tape wise???
Good luck,
Saleem
Hi saleem. Whay a great day to own LDK. Look at FSLR, STP, etc. on 9/26/2207. Then look at their prices today. LDK still 23% lower, while FSLR and STP are ~100% higher. The market is still considerably discounting LDK becasue of the inventory issues. When the audit comes out clean, both your scenarios may prove conservative. After all, LDK is in the "sweet spot" of the solar process.
Hi Minaccess,
See... when you write something in BLOG....it has to be conservative and realistic....
We all know what FSLR & STP has done.....
LDK is a one step @ a time stock...
Only one analyst has given a target on LDK...& it is $65...that is a very good start.
I also have to keep in mind when I write anything in my BLOG...that I am a trader also....
I sell any stock for many reason...so do not want to come across as pumping...
Crediblity is very important to me.
Saleem
Hello Saleem. I forgot this point. 2007 and 2008 expected revs for LDK are 475M and 970M. FSLR expected revs for 2007 and 2008 are 478M and 796M. Market cap LDK is 6.15B and for FSLR it's 19.5B. Such a mismatch and LDK is growing faster. FSLR also got an upgrade today.
Hi Minaccess,
EPS for LDK & FSLR are pretty close for next yr...LDK is higher this year...for 08 & 09 combined FSLR is higher by 4 cent.....
FSLR is thin film & LDK is in polysilicon & Wafer manufacturing......
It is all about EPS growth rate and I personally believe that by FY 09 LDK will beat FSLR hands down.....
Saleem
Saleem,
You are a beast. Keep on tearing this market apart! I am shorting UA (awaiting new refresh move down based on TA), PRXI (continuation downtrend), BKC (distribution hidden in volume), and potentially ICE (short term down soon) What do you think?
Today I added 50% position to FMCN. I guess they are placed quite nicely for next Q's. Not sure where to put my money next. Solar (LDK/STP) or add to AAPL? Any thoughts for tomorrow Saleem.
Hi Patrick,
I know you like shorting....markets for the next 2 days are in UP mode.....
Wait till thursday near close for a QUICK trade...
In every market there are some stocks which can be shorted...if you know what you are doing....
I have NO talent for shorting..never done that !!!
Good luck !!!
Saleem
Hi Sankar,
LDK,AAPL & STP are all good....all three have momentum.....
You need to sell some so so stocks in your portfolio and buy all three.
Divide your available $ equally into LDK,AAPL & STP....
If you must skip one... due to lack of funds....I suggest STP.....but you may regret doing that.
Good luck !!!
Saleem
SALEEM
Your blog I can hoonestly say is the best thing silce sliced bread!
My guess here, is LDK OK to buy now or should I shop around for lower priced stock. I do not what to hold the bag. Still holding 100 sohu, Sold my AGU, I do not like the shelf offering.
My best regards to you
Peace
Madmax
I already learned the lesson of not acting quickly. Instead of regretting for acting lately, I will take my lesson and in future I will to try correct this. I am sure all investors/traders had/are having/will have this problem at some point. I didn't had the stomach (not the brain) for LDK because it was raising too fast and too high. I couldn't believe my eyes for the past one week. I have loaded some @59 and will do if there is any pullback. Lot of people made money on your call on this one and I think they will be eager to book that profit now.
Hi Madmax,
Thanks for the compliment for the BLOG.
Stocks go UP & stocks go down with or without reason ALL the time....
What is important is...that you have to follow your plan...whatever it is.....
market is always a tough place...you need to find your own comfort level.
Saleem
Hi Sankar,
Having a defined game plan & executing it is important.
We all learn everyday....
I am no exception.....
Wall Street is a minefield....no matter what day it is....
Good luck with your strategy.
Saleem
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