AH is all lit UP with green all over.......thanks to a "huge beat by GOOG"
GOOG UP $70++ in AH getting cosy with $530 area...long missed by this click giant !!!
Tomorrow is Option Expiry...which hedgies love to "tinker with"......
ISRG in the "slump in AH"...down almost $40......on affirmed guidance & a beat...I guess some were expecting it to raise the guidance.......
SNDK ER was good..expecting better margins in 2nd half.....
ESLR ER was better than expected ....but guidance IS weaker than consensus.....
In my portfolio :
Sold SOL & booked 70 cents per share loss....tape turned down????
Sold RIMM AH & booked gain of $7.18 per share.......
Sold AAPL AH & booked gain of $7.92 per share......
Bought back ICO cost $7.75
Bought TSO cost $28.61...this is a beaten down refiner which CAN process both light sweet crude & heavy crude.....
My portfolio is ICO,SEED,TOL,TSO.......
ICO rating 25/30 target $8.95....no resistance ahead !!!
SEED rating 45/95 target $7.17
TOL rating 50/40 target $26.43
TSO rating 80/55 target $31.65
In other stocks :
AAPL rating 45/40 target $164.74
RIMM rating 15/85 target $125.01
SNDK rating 20/45 target $28.36
Strong stocks in reg hours were C,ISRG,GS,V,ICE,NDAQ,STX,VMW.......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
13 comments:
Saleem, great timing, I had bought TSO May calls 3 days ago, and already up like 70% up... its looking good so far...!!
Hi Troy,
You bought a day before upgrade...that IS perfect timing..
I am 2 day's late.....
Good luck to both of us !!!
Saleem
Here's an interesting thought on the future of solar...the passage is buried in a long article so forgive the cut and paste.
Kurzweil: 'Exponential' change ahead...
From: http://www.news.com/Kurzweil-Exponential-change...
Delivered by inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil, the keynote address--the second at GDC--centered on Moore's Law, which describes the exponential growth of computing capabilities for cutting-edge hardware.
Kurzweil also believes that nanotechnology will solve the world's energy crisis within two decades. Solar panels are hard to manufacture, heavy, inefficient, and expensive, but Kurzweil said the advent of nanoengineered solar panels will change that.
Within five years, he believes that those high-tech solar panels will become less expensive per watt of energy produced than oil, taking away the financial incentive for people to burn through nonrenewable natural resources. Within 20 years, they will have largely replaced fossil fuels as the primary source of the world's energy.
Today both MON & POT were down like almost 3%, does that mean profit taking has started in AGs, time to slowly load up on SMN? any thoughts?
Hi Troy,
Thanks for your valuable post....
Future of solar through nanotech IS very desireable.....
I wish we knew which nanotech company are working on it....few co I know are NVEC,NVAX,TINY,NGEN.....all nanotech ....but solar focus maybe NOT???
Saleem
Hi Troy,
Ag is a tough call...all Ag stocks recovered in AH....
So be very quick on any short ideas....
Saleem
Not everyone out here will have access to MS report on Solars, so posting it, sorry for the long post..
April 17, 2008
Clean Energy
Solar – Growing Pains
Investment conclusion: Earnings expectations are
likely to decline from 2009 as supply begins to outpace
solar demand and offset benefits from lower polysilicon
prices. This may be already reflected in stock prices with
the sector down 25% year-to-date, however, given that
we expect profitability to deteriorate relative to current
high consensus expectations, we think it is too early to
aggressively add to positions until we see signs of
stabilized margins. We downgrade our Asia Solar
Devices industry views to In-Line from Attractive.
The solar industry is heading for a turbulent period:
Subsidized markets are unlikely to be large enough to
absorb expected supply over the next 2-3 years, and we
forecast 30-40% price reductions in downstream
components to stimulate new markets. Low barriers to
entry of cell processing and existing overcapacity may
well lead to faster falls in cell ASPs than in other
components. Hence, volume growth should remain
strong, but margins suffer.
New estimates: Our EPS forecasts have been cut by
4% and 10% on average for 2008 and 2009,
respectively. This puts us at 10-40% below consensus.
In the near-term, upstream (polysilicon, wafer) should
continue to enjoy pricing power, while downstream
cell/module companies may face higher earnings risk as
rising input costs continue to pressure margin.
Longer-term, we expect faster ASP erosion due to
higher fragmentation to result in top-line growth to
decelerate and margins to fall from 2H09.
LDK and Trina are our top picks. We would re-visit
Suntech as well. With limited differentiation among
Asian names, a wide valuation gap among PV
companies is not justified, in our view, and hence there
is an opportunity to switch to companies trading at lower
valuation. LDK stands out as the most attractive
risk/reward with earnings momentum mounting again.
We would take another look at Suntech again and keep
our switch to Trina from Yingli trade. Regulatory
developments (mainly US and Spain) and quarterly
earnings provide key catalysts over the coming months.
Hi Troy,
MS analysis is very interesting.
They like LDK & TSL only !!!
I think Solar will cool off until next ER....imho
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
I wonder if I'm going to get crushed today with ESLR or make some money? Have an opinion on todays ESLR action? Any thoughts to consider would be greatly appreciated. I have a large stake. I read that you think the solar complex may be in for a rest but any thoughts specifically to ESLR today? Thanks.
Hi Doug,
ESLR is down sharply.....
I have given my analysis for several days.....including my reaction to poor guidance.
ESLR...what you should do...it depends what your time frame and more importantly the idea of getting into ESLR......
We are in any stock to make money...hopefully quickly....
IF NOT...then I am out in nano second......
You are an experienced trader now....
You need to decide... how you want to deal with ESLR situation.....
Solar is like any other sector..it has its own UPS & DOWNS...but some stocks do buck the downtrend in any sector.....tape tells the story.
Good luck on your decision.
Saleem
Thanks for your thoughts and comments Saleem. I will mull it over. Best wishes.
Hi Saleem,
I am in a bit of a pickle, to put it mildy, with ESLR. LOL. But I did buy almost at the bottom today and have lowered my cost basis to $10.01. I will dump today, one way or another. Best wishes with the rest of the day.
Hi Doug,
See...what I mean....when I say you are an experienced trader...& you will figure out what to do about ESLR.....
Good luck with your plan for the day !!!
Saleem
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