Sunday, April 20, 2008

Markets "on the Road Again"Northbound !!!

Markets have set the stage for a major recovery.......

All the financial woes have been discounted........

Housing IS on the verge of being discounted also.......

Refiners WOES may be coming to an end........

Semiconductors are READY to roll......

So...what all this means to an investor/trader????

IT only means.......

That......the BIG money will be made in those sectors.......

AG/Coal/Gas will still work......

Good Solar will still work......

AAPL & RIMM will still dominate......

But it MAY NOT give the return of beaten down sectors as mentioned above....

Laggards with good prospects are the way to go.....

As in every recovery/UPTREND from major downtrend which we just witnessed....new sectors always outperform......WHY???

Because everybody is OUT of those laggards...OR very few are IN.....so there will be tremendous UPSWING when new money IS put IN.......

Most of the laggards are 50% below of their 2 year old highs.......while HOT'N SEXY have all moved UP @ least 100% higher in last year...some Ag are UP 300%.......

As we all know from experience that market always looks ahead......so laggards MAY give you the sparks way more than old & trusted performers so far......

You always have to wonder.......how much of the good news is already priced IN......I say quite a bit in some ......

My strategy IS to forget the "obvious favourite for now" & try some FA based picks where trend lines are improving for 09......

This way.... I am hoping that my year MAY NOT be as bad after all...once Jan 09 rolls around !!!!

Again the secret to any FA/TA is to go with minimum 5 to 10 good prospects.........

Some investors/traders worry too much about tick by tick performance of each stock......I look @ the overall return for the day...once I have placed my bets.....

Yes...I do have under performers in my portfolio...but IF they work out by December...I should be more than pleased........

Hitting home run with every stock is NOT important.....they all act differently....so a positive return in the given time frame IS very desirable......

It is NOT important to change your trading/investing style...but TINKERING a bit with "new reality of market is SMART"

We.....are all different in terms of trading style or conviction level.....so it IS OK to be comfortable with your OWN strategy......

In the end..... you have to feel good about your return from this changing market.......

But...But....I cannot over emphasize enough...that you must KNOW your stocks well both FA & TA trend lines......????remember it is your hard earned money we are talking about !!!!

Do NOT be careless with unproductive experimentation's...with words like "let us do this & see how it works out"

Your strategy be a better thought out & diversified......

Luck should play a smaller role...your homework should play a MAJOR role in your returns !!!!

Investing/trading IS a lifelong phenomenon....so better DEVELOP some FA & TA skills...which you CAN rely on always......instead of looking for quick winners from MB/BLOG.....

Investing/trading with confidence is very important...even if you make mistakes.......

Mistakes/losing money is inevitable in any markets.....try NOT to DWELL on it.....take the lumps & move the $ into productive stocks......it is NEVER too late to recognize an error.....

Yes ...I do keep some under performers....but it is based on FA/TA in a manageable $ allocation and DO have a time frame even for those duds.....

So here is my $ allocation weighting as of Friday's close FWIW.......

BRCM 4.3%

EGO 4.1%

ICO 3.9%

JNPR 4.6%

SEED 12.1%

PMCS 4.4%

SNDK 5.0%

TSO 18.5%

TOL 16.9%

V 26.2%

Sector weighting :

Semiconductors/tech allocation BRCM,SNDK,PMCS,JNPR= 18.3%

Ag SEED =12.1%

Refinery TSO=18.5%

Home builder TOL =16.9%

Financial V =26.2%

Gold EGO =4.1%

Coal ICO =3.9%

Good luck with your OWN homework with FA/TA plus study of TAPE.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

17 comments:

Doug said...

Saleem,
Great blog this morning. Lots to think about. I took away a couple of things from the blog so far today and those are: Sell ESLR and let the money be put to better use. Also, I asked myself what type of trader am I and why? And I have made a fresh analysis of my goals, comfort levels, trading style...in order to be most focused on putting approach to work. So thanks for pointing out thought provoking comments.

Stocks100 said...

Hi Doug,

My Sunday BLOG post is always directed @ SOUL searching...in terms of markets,sectors,stocks & trading styles.....

It IS my ultimate pleasure to encourage strategy & stock picking.

It is NOT what you have done today...but what you do to OPTIMIZE next trading day IS what matters.....

Thinking AHEAD is a good thing !!!

Saleem

madmax said...

SALEEM

I like TSO --v fine refinery play, RSI is 41.71, 4 day average is ready to cross the 9 day avearge!
IBD is ranking as follows:
29 86 A+ C A The A rating is excellent.
Price TARGET 2 Price: 26.44.
I may be a buyer Monday
Comments any one?
Madmax

Stocks100 said...

Hi Madmax,

TSO......the crack spread has to go UP......

Current price reflects lousy refining margin....which cannot last....

TSO can refine both Light sweet & heavy crude......

Good luck with your decision.

Saleem

madmax said...

Correction on IBD information: Sorry
Top 5 Companies in the Oil&Gas-Refining/Mktg Group Stocks Above $10 - Sorted By Best Overall Rating
Sasol Ltd Adr SSL

Aegean Marine Petroleum ANW

Lubrizol Corp LZ

Ultrapar Participaco Adr UGP

Energy Transfer Partners ETP


IBD Stock Checkup Analysis:
Tesoro Corp receives an overall rating of D+, which is in the 47th percentile of all stocks in the Investor's Business Daily database. The overall rating is calculated using five proprietary ratings that measure each stock's Technical and Fundamental qualities and the Technical and Fundamental qualities of the industry group that it resides in, as well as a rating on the stock's current price attractiveness.

Tesoro Corp receives a Technical Rating of 39, which places it 24th out of 36 stocks in the Oil&Gas-Refining/Mktg group.

Tesoro Corp receives a Fundamental Rating of 72, which places it 17th out of 36 stocks in the Oil&Gas-Refining/Mktg group.

Tesoro Corp receives an Attractiveness Rating of 53, placing it 21st out of 36 stocks in its group.

The Oil&Gas-Refining/Mktg group's technical rating of D- ranks it in the 31st percentile of the 197 different Investor's Business Daily Industry Groups. The Oil&Gas-Refining/Mktg group's fundamental rating is D, ranking it in the 38th percentile of all groups.

IBD SmartSelect® Corporate Ratings
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating
55 8 D B C Over all not bad
with a price target of: TARGET 1 Price: 31.65
It appears to be ready for a breakout, looks like a buy to me,

Sorry for the miss information earlier. Good Luck
M

standardshigh said...

Saleem,

Not sure if we're out of the woods yet, however last weeks action says the smart money is already moving in before retail gets its act together.
I like V for a long play.

Stocks100 said...

Hi Standards,

Range is trending UPWARDS....higher highs and higher lows......

V should work out in challenging times for consumers worldwide.

It NEVER all clear in markets..thus the rangebound tape.

Saleem

madmax said...

GOOD MORNING Saleem

Hope we have a green day

Looks iffy? How is the weather up in Cananda? It is raining cat and dogs here in DC. Decided to try and sell CMED and LDK all at a big loss, but will have more funds to invest in other investments... Take the loss now and perhaps make up the loss in anohter stock!

Cheers
M

Stocks100 said...

Hi Madmax,

It IS beatiful spring day in Toronto area...sunny & 62F....

Taking loss is never easy for anyone.....but your money can be more productive in other areas.

Good luck with your decision.

Saleem

madmax said...

SALEEM

Sold the LDK and CMED

Looking hard at SWN, and CHK
Both Nat Gas plays
CHK has the better RSI and near it top in price. But Nat Gas prices are high and going higher in MHO.
CHK is $50.70 in price RSI 63.53.
Any thoughs on this idea?

I may also sell AAPL here! Its earning are out on Wednesday, looking good
thoughts
M

Stocks100 said...

Hi Madmax,

CHK is a good choice......

Selling AAPL will be a good move...profit IS a profit....

Good luck on your decision.

Saleem

madmax said...

SALEEM

I got some TSO
I do like the refinery business. We are early, as the crack spread is not in our favor yet! I think TSo has one re4finery down for repairs?

THanks for all your ideas
M

Doug said...

Hi Saleem,
Per our conversation yesterday, I bought BRCM, MON and AMZN this morning. I sold MTL for about a $5 per share gain. I am still holding ESLR. I am watching DE and a bunch of oil stocks this morning. Good luck with the rest of the day.

Stocks100 said...

Hi Doug,

Good moves on buying.....

Today IS a good day to position.

Good luck!!!

Saleem

madmax said...

DOUG

Way to go on your buys

Look at CHK

I bought some TSO today

Cheers
M

Doug said...

HI Max and Saleem,
I will keep an eye on TSO. I have been watching APC and RDC recently. Best wishes today guys.

madmax said...

Doug
RDC a great buy here:

IBD SmartSelect® Corporate Ratings
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating
98 89 A+ A B-