Sunday, April 6, 2008

Stock market.....lookback & looking forward !!!!!

Last 6 months has to be the "most brutal & sustained downtrend in the last 40 years...which I have invested & observed"

Congratulations if you have "survived"with some equity in your account........

Do NOT feel bad if you got "wiped out in this brutal & relentless selling".........

Trust me........ I have been through this scenario in past...and had to "regroup & start all over again"

Wall street goes through these SLUMPING scenario "every 5 to 8 years" as GREED takes over"

There is NO way to hide from deep losses as every stock gets a minimum 40% to 50% haircut...which simply means who were on 50% margin gets wiped out completely.......

Those who are NOT on margin are looking @ horror @ their statement of 401K ,IRA,Roth with a 50% haircut........this is not easy for anyone to digest......instead of being ahead 50% to 100% ..NOW it is losing all GAIN plus a stunning loss of 50%...........

Some frustrated investor/trader sold everything near bottom & went all cash or money market funds......to preserve what they had........based on their priorities !!!!!

So...if you are trying to learn something from this financial Tsunami......it IS only one thing.....that preserving of capital has to be #1 goal........

Capital IS preserved always by taking profit which locks any gain........

Capital is also preserved by getting OUT of stocks which MAY have more RISK than others.....

Nothing wrong in making mistakes...but learning from it IS more important.......

The only reason that I survived in this freefall.......that my oversize position was reduced and did NOT put all funds to work EVER.......

I maintained 50% equity away from stock market completely........

This IS done whether it is good time or bad time in markets...........

I have "learned" that it is NOT how much money you put in market matters ...BUT...WHERE you invest IS more important........thus a focus on FA/TA & tape.....which keeps changing on a daily basis.......

I have made money always based on my own research & conviction..... not through CNBC or MB..which is full of distortions ,lies based on their own agenda.......

CNBC has done more damage to investors/traders by putting shows like Mad Money or Fast Money who represents option traders & hedge funds...whose agenda changes every hour...if they change their names to "Hedge Fund Money" & "Option Money" then audience WILL know what they are all about in their format & agenda......

So.....after everything IS said & done focus has to be on your OWN homework......

I do provide lot of ideas & names to scan through...but you MUST do your own analysis & be comfortable with your own decision......it is OK to piggyback on some of my ideas .....but.....I like to trade out based on my decision...so you have to be careful in just emulating my portfolio....which IS subject to change on my decision of "relative value elsewhere"

Markets are FINE now...but taking profit & being careful with your own money has to be the "mantra"......

I am looking forward to next 8 months with great "optimism".....

Here is my $ allocation in my current portfolio :

BRCM 9.1%.....Diversified Semiconductor

RIMM 54.6%...Leading Tech & gadgetry play

SEED 9.6%....Seed manufacturer of Corn,Rice,Cotton & Canola..an Ag play

SOLF 10.4%....Solar Play

TOL 16.2%...Best of breed in Luxury housing

All of the above stocks DO have earnings & accelerating sales in 2009...

My $ allocation represents a diversified approach in many sectors & heavy emphasis in certain stock.......

All represents my FA/TA & tape analysis .......

Good luck on your own homework & maintaining your OWN comfort level !!!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

14 comments:

DM101 said...

Saleem,
Thanks for such an insightful post. Really helpful for all of us who are beginners and have experienced the substantial reduction in the value of our stock investments during the past few months. Please continue to help out by posting your thoughts about the markets and specific investment opportunities as they come.

Again, thanks.

DM101

Stocks100 said...

Hi Dm,

Thanks for your appreciative post.

The important take away is that we all suffered... but we CAN all learn to minimize risk no matter what the market conditions are.

We all have worked very hard for our equity...so a PRUDENT approach is MANDATORY !!!

Saleem

madmax said...

SALEEM

Good Morning my friend.

Did you get the car all fixed up??

I like the TOL and SEED as picks a whole lot!
RIMM was hit on Friday, IMHO that was tempoary set back to a furhter run up!
Barcharts says:
Trend Spotter TM Buy

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold
Price Support Pivot Point Resistance
119.99 117.54 120.98 124.42

Thanks for a wonderfull blog and al the hard work that you do for us.
Madmax

Stocks100 said...

Hi Madmax,

My 21 year & 3 month old car is looking NICE......

Spend 4 hours detailing.....it is a pride & joy..still with original Carb.....original transmission @ 343,000 Miles......In Canada it has 550,000 Kilometers.....

I am glad you like SEED & TOL.....

TOL IS ready for a "breakout"....

Time to make "serious moolah"....

Saleem

Troy House said...

Good solar article:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/71326-solar-power-plays-look-to-grow-with-clean-energy-act-spanish-subsidies?source=yahoo

Stocks100 said...

Hi Troy,

Solar is very much in news these days.....

Most solar are moving UP !!!!

Saleem

minaccess said...

Hi Saleem. In my trading account I have 20% ISRG, 20% POT, 20% RIMM, 10% CELG, 10% HXM, 10% TITN and 10% KSU. All have nice gains except TITN ehich has a small (3%) loss. I am happy with all except KSU for some reason.

Stocks100 said...

Hi Minaccess,

Excellent allocation of $ in your portfolio.

Today...futures are flying...so it will be prudent to make any changes in pre-market......

If markets are strong...then we go into uncharted HIGHER territory...

Saleem

minaccess said...

Yes Saleem. Bad news could not bring the markets down friday. If today is a neutral news day, we may see another 100 pt DOW move. I expect leaders (RIMM, POT,, etc.) to have a banner week

Troy House said...

This might be huge, LDK cleared by SEC, news just out...!!

In an SEC filing, the company said: "The SEC initiated an investigation on October 18, 2007 with respect to the above accounting matters and, on March 24, 2008, we were informed that the SEC staff did not intend to recommend any enforcement action by the SEC against us."

Troy House said...

Guys, get into LDK, we see 70-80s pretty sooon, with SEC finding nothing wrong

madmax said...

Troy

Gosh I hope yhou are right

I need LDK to FLY HIGH--Smile :)

Go LDK!!!
MY old QLD is strong today as is GS and AGU.
The DRYS are all flying higher today, I know htat the shipping rates are up but not that much.

Good Luck all looks like a $$$$ day

Madmax

Doug said...

Saleem,
DYLAN WAS JUST WALKING!!! Man is that exciting! Whoo. I got to catch my breath. LOL...
I just bought a little LDK. I am back in SOHU too. I couldnt get the price I wanted on RIMM or SOLF until I had already spent my dough, earlier this morning and then SOLF came back in but no cash left. I'm keeping an eye on them both in case I take profits in one I own. Best wishes today. SOLF was really flexing some muscle this morning.

Stocks100 said...

Hi Doug,

LDK & SOHU.......

Good luck on your picks & other stocks in your portfolio.

Saleem