Markets are in extremely jittery mood these days......
Markets have been subjected to many negatives since last August.....
Markets are in the 9th month of dealing with many issues since August......
One...it was yen carrytrade
Two...it was China stock market crash
Three...it was sub-prime mess
Four...it was writedowns in financials
Five....Record high Oil prices
Six...Record high commodity prices
Seven...Record high Gold prices
Eight....Slumping housing prices
Nine....Credit freezing up
Ten...Mortgage defaults
Eleven...Housing foreclosures
Twelve...Mortgage lending standards tightening
Thirteen...Impending Recession
Fourteen...Lowest consumer confidence
Fifteen....Retail/car sales softening
Sixteen..Corporate spending pushback
Seventeen..Investors confidence shaken
See....It is NOT easy for wall street & world markets to deal with so many issues @ the same time worldwide......
So.....we have all markets all over the world down down & down.....
It does NOT matter if it is Shanghai or Bombay or NASDAQ...they are all trending in the same direction......which IS south......
US credit crunch IS affecting entire world economy "materially & confidence wise"
As it is known that in 9 long months a new baby is born.......
So are we giving birth to a "new worldwide markets"????
If old theories hold that markets discounts everything & looks ahead.......
Then......
We have a fighting chance of coming through this earning season with some resiliency......
So who is reporting when which will matter to the markets.....
INTC on Tuesday ...as expected ..guidance weak...2nd half will be strong
IBM wed ..good ER & good guidance
GOOG Thursday..ER as expected & guidance as consensus means Flat= slight growth
So ...how do we handicap the market based on 1 good report & 2 flat report???
I like to believe.... that market IS expecting flat guidance from most and will be relieved that guidance is NOT that BAD......?????
AAPL ER is on 23rd which is following week...my expectation is that they will report in line/beat by penny and guidance will also MEET expectations/consensus......
So....ER will be NO CIGAR but no DISASTER either......which should be OK for markets....unless Market are living in "fantasy land"and expect blowout ER in a "terrible economic environment"
So for most traders/investors...it will be same OLD.........
Which IS rangebound trading........
So book profit whenever you see it.....
Stay positioned/trade in strong sectors.....
What IS strong lately it is Oil,Ag,frontline technology,solar,some commodities......
Daytrading may NOT be a bad idea in this rangebound market.....
For long term investors....strong sectors should be the focus.....
How am i positioned in this so so market......here is my weighting for $ allocation as of Friday's close :
AAPL 17.1%
ICO 3.4%
RIMM 54.8%
SEED 9.4%
TOL 15.3%
A logical ? why so heavy in RIMM....two reason....its business IS doing extremely well inspite of economic issues thus I expect higher stock price.....and it IS a safe place to HIDE in this uncertain market....so I think !!!
Good luck in coming week !!!!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
8 comments:
Hi, salim
If possible , will you please give your input base on option.Option is most important tool to understand upside or downside risk.I do not understand option market.
Hi Ds,
Option is a very dangerous way to be in market.....
Those who stay in option generally lose all equity.
Safest way to capitalize on option is to do covered write ...which gives you TIME & VOLATILITY premium.
You need set of 100 shares to do covered write.....100 shares equals one contract....
Go to CBOE website to learn more....
I rarely do covered write.....because you lose all the UPSIDE.....
I personally will NOT recommend option....
Accumulate good stocks over time...which is a good way to build equity....imho
Saleem
DSinbull,
Options are very risky unless you write covered calls. You only write covered calls on stocks that are neither rising or going lower. It is like collecting a dividend every month. If you get stock dividends too it works double well. However any abrupt move up and you could lose upside potential.
Buying ISRG Puts, some info regarding their earnings.
ISRG last quarter report came in with $1.24/share and street est. for this 04/17/08 shows lowering to $0.99/share
Buying May 240p for around 2.20/2.30
Do your own DD...
Saleem,
Could be a rough week. I see foreign markets hit the skids Monday in sympathy to the DOW slide on Friday. Maybe this is the trading range 11,800 - 12,600 for awhile? A little mischief going on with AAI stock on Friday. Analyst mentioned AAI in article,,,investors panicked and sold down 30%, then the same analyst after hours told his clients to buy,,,stock back up 29% after hours.
Hello Saleem and troy house. ISRG has a solid history of beating earnings estimates. Listen to last Q's CC. They guided up and said credit crisis is not hindering business. GE's miss has no relevance to ISRG. The current estimate is $0.98. IMO this is laughable. They will handily beat. I am a US MD and the da Vinci robot is for real and patients are demanding it's use for prostate, general surgery and hysterectomy procedures. They have a monopoly on surgical robotics and hospitals need the robot to avoid losing market share.
Hi Standards,
Yes...markets are rangebound...but the range is trending UP.....
Now we have to see where it holds & finds support......
Analyst play games with all stocks...upgrading when they are selling and downgrading when they are buying.....
Buy & hold are NOT working for most stocks......
let us see..if we close green today...that will be good for the market.
Saleem
Hi Minaccess,
ISRG IS a solid stock with a great business model.....their recurring revenue IS the strength.....
Option players are always looking for home run.....on good or bad news....
Obviously Troy is looking for weak ER & guidance...thus his Put bet....
That IS what makes a market in ISRG.
Good luck to both of you...it will be interesting to see who is right on thursday !!!!
Saleem
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