Saturday, September 12, 2009

WHY..this market is proving MANY pundits WRONG ????

There is an army of prominent names who are taken as "experts" are calling for major crash since JUNE.......

Among the most vocal critic of this market are/has been ...

Robert Prechter who told all his PAID subscribers on Aug 5th.... that S&P 500 is going below 666 and told everyone to load up in US$.....
Anyone with any market exposure will know that it was a BAD call on both front..Market IS @ new HIGH by Sep 11th & US$ is in FREEFALL......

Dr Nouriel Roubini has been predicting major W in economy since March and saw NOTHING good happening...NOW he has CHANGED his tune to a U shaped recovery......which IS like saying I had no idea what I was "talking about since March on CNBC & other EAGER seekers"

David Rosenberg has done a good job as an economist for 08..NOW he is trying to branch out as a market TIMER and is predicting 840 in S&P 500 by Oct 09......this DIRE prediction came in August also.....so he is eating CROW so far big time.

Art non-Cashin has been bad mouthing this rally every day since march LOW.....so who followed his daily call in any shape size or form..is BLEEDING....

Guy Adami who PANICS on every minor down day and has been calling for 905 in S&P 500 for months..so if you allowed him to check your enthusiasm...you are HURTING....

Doug Kass came in early August saying that we are going Down Down DOWN.....well he has been WRONG for almost 30 days...

Doug Cliggott has called for bear market for the last 10 years when we had roaring BULL....so I am GLAD you do NOT take him SERIOUSLY.......

Carter Worth has been SHAKING in his analytical conclusions since we HIT 900 in S&P 500..he has been EVASIVE @ best and pushing LAGGARDS since then.....

NOW...you KNOW ...WHY this market has LEGS.......a strong leg.....which IS not TIRED @ all....

Every day there is a call on CNBC that we are going below 666 in S&P 500......I am NOT sure IF these people have LOST it all...in their ANALYTICAL faculty...?????

Market IS going UP because of MAJOR improvement in the fundamentals of WORLD economy...from China to India to Canada..things are looking UP.....Europe & US are not far behind......

This is an EXACT opposite scenario of Oct 07......where we started to slump in economic picture and markets were showing in their DOWNWARD direction...all the way to March of 09.. an 18 months of downward spiral...where we lost from almost 1550 area in S&P (incidentally that was a new all time HIGH) to a 12 year LOW of 666....a stunning erosion of 12 year equity of 57%....

NOW...since March of 09...market is telling us that we ARE repairing the damage caused by financial mess & abuse .......

Because of markets ABILITY to project the future..we ARE climbing back UP slowly but surely......so far we have RECOUPED 376 S&P points from a loss of about 884 points......in other words we have to RECOUP another 508 S&P points before we go back to October of 07.......

As I am a follower of market TAPE...I see nothing in horizon to change my OPTIMISTIC view of economy or markets......

YES...when we hit RSI 80+ we should pullback & find support which should be in 3% to 7% pullback range......sometimes markets CAN even hit RSI 90 before pulling back......

Since we have HORDES of SKEPTICS ...this rally has the POTENTIAL of going HIGHER & FARTHER .......

How FAR????

http://www.stockcharts.com/ has some idea????

They are predicting that :

S&P 500 target 1295......we closed @ 1042.73..so a potential gain of 252.27 or +24.19%
RSI is 65.51...which is a healthy number NOT overbought.

This sure BEATS money market account by a wide ratio......

&.... how about GOLD.......????

Sorry Robert Prechter..he was also BEARISH on GOLD back in early Aug......some track record for a GENIUS...TRIPLE WHAMMY.....

Gold is already @ 18 months HIGH.......

18 months HIGH do NOT happens by accident...this IS a major technical BREAKOUT.....$1200 is here short term....

Junior Gold stocks SHOULD outperform seniors..based on history.......

So relax & plan your strategy based on your OWN comfort level.....IF you feel you have made enough money and wants to go to sidelines...go ahead & do that......

I will keep monitoring the TAPE & see how it goes on a daily basis.

IF I sell my major positions...I will post in real time.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

8 comments:

standardshigh said...

Hi Saleem,

Good post, Hey I don't think I like having RIMM in IBD list. It's almost like the kiss of death to show up there. Too little too late, then the plunge.
Turn off that TV and those crazy TV talking heads. They will put everyone in the poor house. So much hot air. Almost time to sell some calls for lunch money.

Best Regards

standardshigh said...

Hi All,

BDI stagnant at 2468

Best Regards

Stocks100 said...

HI Standards,

Great advice in staying away from CNBC for 2 days.....

I am richer in SANITY category by NOT having CNBC as part of my TV lineup..not to mention i save $8 per month???

CNBC will dramatize LEH fall as if something is happenning NOW.....all for ratings.

RIMM should be OK going forward...2nd half is lways better for RIMM..

Thanks for BDI info....

Saleem

standardshigh said...

Hi Saleem,

Thanks for the info on RIMM, I'll be looking for a softer entry point in the next two months.
Maybe we get the big Christmas rally that we missed last year. $$$$$$
Followed of course ,by the big after Christmas rally into April. $$$$$$

Best Regards

Stocks100 said...

Hi Standards,

This is the-best market i have seen for bulls in my 40 years of exposure.

TAPE has no intention of quitting YET !!!

It is nice to see that RIMM is almost near my cost of $79.29???

Only real dog in my portfolio is POT...another downgrade today???

Saleem

standardshigh said...

Hi Saleem,

Commodities are tied to shipping. When BDI goes up so will POT. Sold calls on HDB Sept 105's, lunch money. Still in the red on this stock, if it gets called will take tax loss next year and buy back at lower cost. May sell calls on CMED. Don't believe its going anywhere for some time.

Best Regards

madmax said...

SALEEM

You are correct --to much crap on TV

POT is making me mad
But market direction is UP

I do not think IBD gets it message right
Regards

Stocks100 said...

Hi Standards,

Thanks for your take on POT.....

I am holding POT for a very long long time.....do not want to tie up any more funds in POT....

Writing calls is a great strategy IF you know the trading range of your stock.......

CMED is a good candidate to write covered calls on a monthly basis..it is "show me" stock.

This year is also a good year to get rid of deadbeat in portfolio....why carry something which is DEAD/DOWN money???

Try to look into gold & silver..which MAY turn out to be the "darling for 09/10"

Saleem