Sunday, October 18, 2009

Where are we heading in Indices ?????

Markets have come a long way since the doomsday scenario of March 09......

Markets have climbed wall of worry since March.....

Markets have "crushed" bears & doubters of this rally........

More & more technicians are getting scared of this market & have been WRONG for several months.....most technicians & pundits have missed last 9% of this rally & have lost tremendous amount of money "shorting" this market since July......?????

It is not difficult to read the TAPE and KNOW the direction of this market...which HAS been UP...

BUT...many traders/technicians/pundits are trying desperately to "tell the markets what to do"...never happens..market does what it wants to do always !!!!

Fighting this TAPE has NOT been a good idea...lot of missed opportunity & betting against market meant major loss in equity.......

Ask Carter Worth,Doug Kass,Robert Prechter,Art Cashin,Guy Adami...they are all looking like a group who cannot "see the TREND" which has been clearly UP????

So..where are we in this RUNUP???

IF we look @ pessimism which IS @ highest level from traders/technicians...we go UP...

IF we look @ ER which is generally a beat...we go UP

IF we look @ weak selling on down days..we go UP

IF we look @ RSI which is 63.46 on Friday...we go UP

SO...IF so many indicators are pointing UP...what are we afraid of???

OH...yes that famous correction????

BUT that correction is within 5% range and we go right back UP......

By the way...we just corrected 15.03 S&P 500 points from high of 1096.56 to intraday low of 1081.53...a miniscule 1.4% correction......

I have a strong feeling that we go to 1120 in S&P 500......which is another 3% move UP????

Most strong stocks will move UP 5% easily in this RUNUP.......

It has been smart to stay in this market & I do not expect it to change anytime soon.....yes there will be 3% to 5% pullbacks along the way BUT that IS normal in any bull market......

Here is how I have allocated my funds as of Friday:

POT 35.92% AG Potash
RIMM 22.47% Tech Smartphone
AAPL 13.13% Tech Smartphone/Computers
BAC 11.5% Financials/Bank
MRVL 10.3% Tech/Chip maker for PC/Smartphones
AUY 4.53% Gold producer
COMS 2.15% Tech/Networking

As you can see that I am diversified in many sectors which gives me very high comfort level.

So...this IS the market to stay IN without worrying too much about normal correction.Make sure that your comfort level is HIGH in a diversified mode.

Always do your OWN due diligence & KNOW your stocks well from changing FA/TA/TAPE....it is NEVER constant.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

6 comments:

madmax said...

SALEEM

Here is my take:
Target RSI
AAPL $231 59
GE $23 65
GS $179 53 this is my weakest one, IMHO
DSX $4.5 59 my second weakest
FRO $34 69
T $13 45

Good luck to all the market seems strong to me and T and APPL, AMZN report next week--this should keep the market very interesting

regards to all

Stocks100 said...

Hi Madmax,

Thanks for your RSI analysis & market analysis.

Saleem

Anonymous said...

Saleem,

I agree 100% with your thesis. S&P to 1120 pause, to down 5-10%, onward move to S&P 1200 - 1250

Stocks100 said...

Hi Victor,

Thanks for your feedback !!!

Saleem

standardshigh said...

Hi Saleem,

Not sure if I want to invest fresh money at this level as the risk reward is not there. Maybe we'll get an oscillating market with some playable updrafts and down drafts. If you're still in, stay in. Take profits when you can. Let winners run.

Best Regards

Stocks100 said...

Hi Standards,

Good point of risk/reward ratio which is always important.

I am going to lighten up above 1100..greed is also a trap !!!!

Saleem