Market goes through many changes depending on what it sees or does not see.......
Market profile has definitely changed based on many economic issues which is "far from resolved"
European debt situation is in flux.......
US economic picture is mixed....
High growth economy like China & India are experiencing slower than expected growth..either induced by govt policies OR strength in economy is less than expected.....India's latest GDP growth was less than expected..it is struggling @ 6% area.......China on the other hand should grow around 9%.....US GDP is expected around 3% area.......these are all 2010 GDP numbers...
Market is trying to factor all this in its daily trading activity.......
Until July......after Q2 ER is out...there is a chance that we trade in a narrow range of 1080 to 1150 range in S&P 500...currently we are @ 1104.49.......
Till July...it will be an excellent hyper-trading market.......
For the most part IF you do NOT trade....your equity will be stagnant to LOWER.......
I will highlight how two widely followed stocks have done in a long span of time.......
First AAPL....which hit $202.96 in Nov 07..after 27 months..it is still @ $204.62.....
Second GOOG...in April 2007 it was close to $500....after 32 months it is still @ $526.....
It is important to note that their EPS continues to grow every year...so it is NOT slump in earnings which is causing this long-term stagnation......
SO..it is important to understand that trading ranges in stocks IS a fact of life...IF you IGNORE this reality...then any profit will turn into loss......
In next 5 months until mid July...I expect trading range in stocks to be extremely narrow.....so take advantage of any profit which you can get.....even daytrading may not be a bad idea.....for traders closing every trade by end of the day MAY be more profitable....
IF you have a very good handle on the fundamentals of any sector...then "longer term hold" MAY workout pretty good......
I am also TRYING to figure out which stocks may get me the profitable trades......it is getting very hard lately for me......
I will stick to what makes me comfortable...it is important to stay in the market...but with safer strategy......exposure in market needs to be LESS these days......
Here is my sector/$ allocation(exposure is 50% less than normal) as of Friday:
APWR 30.24% AE/Wind Turbine RSI 49.17
IAG 27.17% Gold Mining RSI 50.69
SLW 22.87% Silver reseller RSI 50.66
PALM 19.72% Tech/Smartphone RSI 18.73
Although i am well diversified in many sectors.....BUT PALM has been a major drag....it has become a speculative hold for me.....RSI is unbelievable......so a technical oversold bounce should happen......
Please do your OWN evaluation of the market & ensure your exposure reflects your investing/trading style.
Comfort level needs to be very high in this RANGEBOUND market.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
4 comments:
SALEEM
You must have a smile on your face now
Market is up APPLE and ASIA are up hugely
Cheers
PALM is a mess -sorry
HiC,
3 out of 4 stocks are down for me..so no smile...
Most stocks are UP nicely.....
Saleem
SALEEM
ASIA
UPDATE 1-Goldman Sachs adds AsiaInfo to conviction buy list
March 1 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs upgraded AsiaInfo Holdings Inc ASIA to "buy" from "neutral" and added the stock to its conviction buy list, citing a robust growth outlook and potential accretion from the company's acquisition of its China-based rival.
Shares of AsiaInfo, which provides IT services to the Chinese telecoms industry, rose as much as 9 percent to $26.71 Monday morning to be one of the highest percentage gainers on Nasdaq.
AsiaInfo should enjoy healthy industry growth, about 20 percent year-over-year, and should continue to gain market share in 2010 and 2011, analyst Donald Lu wrote in a note. He raised his price target on the stock to $31 from $29.
Lu said he expects the acquisition of Linkage Technologies International Holdings Ltd to be accretive to AsiaInfo's earnings by at least 16 percent to 17 percent, even under very conservative assumptions.
In December, AsiaInfo agreed to buy rival Nanjing, China-based Linkage for about $732.7 million. The deal is to close by the end of the first quarter or early in the second quarter. read story
The company could also benefit from a potential USD/RMB depreciation in 2010 and 2011, the analyst said.
(Reporting by Manasi Phadke in Bangalore; Editing by Jarshad Kakkrakandy)
((manasi.phadke@thomsonreuters.com; within U.S. +1 646 223 8780; outside U.S. +91 80 4135 5800; Reuters Messaging: manasi.milindphadke.reuters.com@reuters.net))
Keywords: ASIAINFO/RESEARCH GOLDMAN SACHS
Hi C,
Thanks for ASIA update..useful info to many !!!!
Saleem
Post a Comment