Sunday, March 7, 2010

Is market going in an "overdrive mode" ?????

Friday's close near high of the day & Nasdaq high of the year close...is giving a "technical breakout"......

Momentum traders will run this market towards new highs in all Indices......

1200 area in S&P 500..looks like a "real possibility"

Markets will get "overbought" in this RUNUP.......

Currently RSI are as follows :

Dow 63.34

S&P 500 66.04

Nasdaq 69.72

In last four months Nasdaq RSI has runup to 75 area...then a major pullback......so traders should keep this in their trading strategy......other Indices barely touched 70 then pulled back.....

VIX also getting close to 52 week low which is 16.86..currently we are @ 17.42......YES..VIX could go below 16.86 ...but again monitor this closely for locking profits....

SO.....what is a good strategy now......

Consider locking profit.......

IF you are a long-term investor...then there is nothing to do.....stay in stronger stocks in diversified sectors.....some speculative stock may not be a bad idea........

It will be PRUDENT to REDUCE exposure once we cross 1160 in S&P 500.......

After every euphoric move......there is a long digestive process...could be until next "oversold" conditions arrive.....

Oversold conditions are defined as when RSI is between 35 to 45 area based on last 4 months RSI stat....

Locking profit when RSI in your stocks are @ 70 area is a "very safe strategy".....sometimes stocks do hit RSI 80 on momentum alone????

Here is my $ allocation/sector/RSI current/RSI high

APWR 31.26% AE/Wind Turbines 43.29 82.00
IAG 25.53% Gold Mining 57.47 72.00
PALM 22.42% Tech/Smartphone 20.79 68.00
SLW 20.79% Silver reseller 54.00 68.00

My portfolio has underperformed lately due to many losing position.....APWR,PALM has been subjected to major "bear attack"......it is NOT good to have 53% of portfolio going South..while market is going North.....so..i wait till they "turnaround"..Patience has become a strategy......

Please do analyze your portfolio based on any technical indicators you have expertise in......markets CAN go in the wrong direction very quickly.....there IS such a thing as overbought & oversold........

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Saleem,

Arbeter from standard and poors agrees with your view. He also stated that we're slightly overbought and may pull back slightly before resuming our uptrend. He sees a possible 1200/1250 as an intermediate top. Also sees gold and other commodities resuming their uptrend.His final statement was accumulate on weakness, market headed higher. Have a good day.

standardshigh said...

Hi Saleem,

BDI breakout!

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +121 3242

Above trend line, moving north!

Best Regards

Stocks100 said...

Hi Victor,

Thanks for sharing S&P views.....

The trouble with any targets is that traders forget about being overbought & then market drifts lower until it is @ least neutralized.....

So profit taking is NOT a bad idea factoring 14 day RSI....

Saleem

Stocks100 said...

Hi Standards,

Thanks for BDI update.....

EGLE is looking good right here !!!!

Saleem

madmax said...

GOod Morning to all

Hope you all had a very nice weekend
DId your favorite movie make an oscar?

I sold APPLE- with j the Carmer screaming the virtues of owning APPLE it was time to sell

Holding GE, GNK, FRO and APWR, ASIA, etc--
this should be an exciting trading day as shorts head for the exits?

Best to all

Stocks100 said...

Hi Madmax,

Booking profit is a good idea...

Good luck with your portfolio.

Saleem

standardshigh said...

Hi All,

Nice move in Asian stocks overnight.

European markets flat.

So far we are flat here in US.

ASIA making a move to higher ground.

Best Regards