Sunday, August 8, 2010

S&P 500 going to 1180 in this run.....

S&P 500 is defying many bears from Doug Kass,Robert Prechter,Guy Adami,David Rosenberg..they are all "proven wrong" many times..BUT they pretend to know more than anybody on planet Wall Street....

All of them could "clearly see 400 to 850" in S&P 500 since March of 08...after 28 months of being "proven wrong" they still show up on CNBC & rehash their "failed thesis"...& some traders actually "sell" on their deep bearish thesis........

Jimmy the Cramer sold stocks in his charitable trust on Thursday.."fearing ominous slump in indices".....many retail also bailed out last week fearing "retest of 1010"......

Most retail investors are bearish as of last Thursday .....only 30% are bullish..lowest level of bullish sentiment since July 11 when S&P 500 was 100 points lower..

VIX is clearly giving signal that it is heading lower to 19 area...which means indices are moving HIGHER.....

Many are "scratching their head in disbelief" as to why market is not going down..when most economic reports are below expectations......

The reason MAY be as simple as "market has discounted slowing growth already" and is looking forward to better growth "six months out"........

Current slow growth MAY be a reflection of many "stimulus being phased out" worldwide & there is "interest rate being jacked UP" to contain inflation & hyper growth........

When markets do NOT go down on "bad news"...pay attention........

Market TAPE is giving a clear indication that it wants to go HIGHER.......

How HIGH is another debate.......

Based on the current TAPE.....i do see 1180 in the cards......

RSI is @ 59.08.....I can "visualize close to 80" in the current environment......

Many stocks are hitting 52 wk highs repeatedly...a sure sign of "growth in profit"

I also see PE expanding in this low inflationary environment..which means stock prices will be moving HIGHER.....

There are many ways to profit in this environment which are listed below :

-Buy only "momentum stocks"

-Buy a mix of "mostly momentum & few low PE stocks"

-Trade "different momentum stocks alternately"

I have a tendency to "concentrate/monitor max 20 stocks @ a time" and keep "rotating" in the above listed trading approach.......

I am "motivated by a simple philosophy of booking profit as we go along"

I am also highly concentrated in few stocks..works for me !!!!

In hindsight... this rapid trading style.....sometimes limit my profit.... BUT overall..it is a wise approach......

Here is my sector/$ allocation as of Friday's close :

RIMM 38.03% Tech/Smartphone
SNDK 33.39% Tech/Flash Memory
LVS 20.50% Casino Operator
JASO 8.08% Solar cell manufacturer

I try to stay diversified all the time even when theme may be technology...BUT there are many sub-sectors in techs....

Good luck in your OWN due diligence....your trading style is a reflection of your OWN comfort level & knowledge level...if it works to your satisfaction..no need to change.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

4 comments:

Michael said...

Saleem,

Thanks for an excellent analysis on the current market. I don't feel much confident in low volume rally and like most retail investor. I waited for a more clear direction before jump in. However, by this time, more experience investor like you already have a decent profit. It is tough to invest in this market, but your blog has provided a big help.

Michael

psrajpal said...

I second to your comments Michael. The blog and viewpoints are of great help.

Thanks

Param

Stocks100 said...

Hi Michael,

Thanks for your feedback.

Markets are different each time...it depends on the environment.....

These days ..since 08 financial meltdown.....markets are NOT behaving in a classic predictable manner....

Volume is just one indicator of support ....

Many rally starts with low volume and then volume follows....

Early stage of any bull market..there is a strong disbelief in the strength & character of rally......

I firmly believe & have identified why in my BLOG that this is a real thing.....which needs to be bought in a diversified manner.

Saleem

Stocks100 said...

Hi Param,

Thanks for your feedback.

I try to make sense of market & direction.....

I am glad that it is giving some understanding of this crazy market.

Saleem