S&P 500 has moved UP 10.38% so far in four weeks....

This has been a stunning run in S&P 500...we were @ 1040 end of August but by 24th of Sep we are @ 1148.67 a gain of 108 S&P 500 points or +10.38%.....

Is it too far too fast ?

It all depends on your view of upcoming economic data from US & around the world......

RSI is @ 65.99...which is NOT high when it comes to major rallies.....where we have touched 80 back in April.....

We may still have some more "firepower" left in this rally...like Monday is typically a strong inflow day PLUS we have end of the month window dressing......all in the next four days of trading....

S&P 500 have a very good chance of going to 1166 area before "running out of steam"......

No rally goes straight UP as we know from history...

Until Wednesday of last week S&P 500 had a 19 day streak of without back to back down days..whenever we have this kind of "straight UP"..we generally lose steam ......

Also S&P 500 had the biggest gain in Sep since 1939........

All of the above "superlatives" calls for extreme caution going forward....

It is always wise to book gains than risk of losing some or most of it......

October is known for "volatility"......

In October we will get Q3 earnings reports....some techs have already warned like INTC,AMD,PMCS.....steel companies have also warned.......

SO..October may not be as rosy ...so stay nimble.....

Currently bulls are 45%...which is not a euphoric number but may go higher once we finish September.....BUT we have gone from low of 21% bulls in late August to high of 50% previous week...

Currently, I am only 20% invested as of Friday & may liquidate the rest by Thursday....

My October strategy is to enter short position which i may liquidate same day..as markets may be unpredictable going forward.....

I am expecting "high volatility" in October.......

My current portfolio is TSL & RVBD.....

Good luck in your OWN interpretation of market TAPE, as I am proven wrong by market many times.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem