Looking ahead in 2011......

2010 came to a close with the following stat :

Dow +11%

S&P 500 +12.8%

Nasdaq +16.9%

First six months of 2010 , S&P 500 was Down 8%......so last 6 months saw a major bull run of almost 21%..ending the year +12.8%

Ironically, my stock market prediction was right on the money...BUT my personal stock selection left lot to be desired ...as i ended Down 3.3%.....so i am naturally upset & disappointed...

SO...here we are in 2011......

I do see, this bull market continuing.

Consensus on Wall Street is that S&P 500 will be UP 9%.....as we all KNOW that consensus is generally not right ?

I see Q1 as super strong, then negative Q2.......

Making money in market is always a challenge.......when everyone is euphoric as it is going to be in Q1..then disappointment follows which could be Q2.

For traders, market is always challenging...either you buy too soon or you sell too soon......

For swing traders,it is little less stressful as there is more time on hand and stocks do have time to give a real picture.

For Investors,it is all about where you are putting your $...investors generally are much more conservative & have dividend more in focus.....this approach generally is a safer approach.

For me Q1 is going to be accumulate & stay put in my aggressive portfolio....when i see RSI touching 80+...then it is time to rethink...currently RSI is @ 69.26...

As we all have noted that aggressive stocks can give UP $14 in a hurry & also gain $14 in no time......so it is to be recognized that things CAN & WILL turn in a hurry......but the WAIT can be very painful & may prompt booking a loss.

SO...you all need to stay in a theme of your OWN comfort level.....

Traders should trade daily in Q1....

Swing Traders should move to different stocks in Q1.....

Investors need to find themes which will work in 2011.....

I personally see money being made in Q1 by most participant, unless they are buying "bargains"???

Staying with "strong sectors" & "strong stocks" remains the theme for 2011.

Mutual funds are seeing "inflow" of funds after long time....

Consumers are feeling good & spending.

Gold & Oil prices are predicting "much more stronger" economy than pundits.

Obama ,congress & senate working together.

Year 3 of Presidency is extremely "bullish"

SO...what is there NOT to like about economic picture ???

So it is important to do analysis of stocks based on fundamental but also on technicals....combo does work most of the time.....

Couple of FREE sites which i personally visit prior to making any buying or selling decisions are listed below :

stockcharts.com

stockconsultant.com

Plus i check Yahoo finance,google finance & moneycentral.msn.com for news & fundamental analysis.

I also have my real portfolio & potential buys set up in Yahoo finance & google finance..no more than 20 stocks..i monitor @ a time including my portfolio...any more than 20..you are not really catching all the news in depth ????so more is NOT better IMHO.

Sincerely hoping, that all of us will do better in 2011.

Good luck with your OWN strategy & homework.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem